Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The demand for AI large model manufacturers primarily requires talents in mathematics, computer science, and other STEM fields [3] - Universities are expanding undergraduate enrollment, focusing on foundational and AI-related disciplines to meet the demand for skilled professionals in emerging technologies [4] - AI education is penetrating primary education, with initiatives to incorporate AI into the curriculum, as announced by the Ministry of Education [5] - The company "TAL Education" is leading the "AI Education" sector, actively developing AI and robotics training courses to adapt to the AI era [6] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - AI large model manufacturers are seeking professionals with backgrounds in mathematics and computer science, as evidenced by the educational backgrounds of teams at OpenAI and Deepseek [3] - The Chinese government has initiated policies to expand quality undergraduate education, particularly in foundational and AI-related subjects [4] - The Ministry of Education has announced the formal introduction of AI education in primary schools, with cities like Beijing and Shanghai implementing AI general education courses [5] Company Focus - TAL Education is at the forefront of the "AI Education" industry, enhancing its curriculum to include programming, robotics, and scientific thinking [6] - The company has launched the MathGPT model, focusing on mathematics, and has developed the "Xueersi Learning Machine" to upgrade its AI capabilities [6] Investment Suggestions - Suggested companies to watch include Rongxin Culture, Century Tianhong, Jiafa Education, Shengtong Co., Southern Media, and ChuanZhi Education [7]

华福证券 海外市场周观察（0310-0316） 美国经济衰退隐忧与关税冲击交织 投资要点： 美联储的工作人员曾与美国财政部合作，向埃隆·马斯克的"政府效率 部"（DOGE）提供了对联邦支付系统的访问权限。特朗普最快将于周三提 名美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼担任该行负责监管事务的副主席；鲍曼和沃勒是 特朗普第一任政府时期上任的官员，他们对"提高对大型银行的资本要求" 持反对意见。鲍曼的提名可能推动美联储监管政策向宽松方向调整，尤其是 在大型银行资本要求与信贷供给领域。 本周全球主要大类资产涨跌互现。COMEX银（+4.79%）涨幅最大，NYMEX 铂（+4.51%），卢布兑人民币（+2.82%），COMEX黄金（+2.73%）涨幅居前； CBOT豆油（-3.54%）跌幅最大，道琼斯工业指数（-3.07%），CBOT玉米（- 2.69%），纳斯达克综合指数（-2.43%）跌幅居前。 风险提示：美联储降息超预期，地缘政治风险超预期。 团队成员 分析师 周浦寒 执业证书编号：S0210524040007 邮箱：zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 分析师 章孟菲 执业证书编号：S0210525020004 邮箱：zmf ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that since the Spring Festival of 2025, Chinese technology companies like DeepSeek and Yushu Technology have gained global attention, indicating that the journey of Chinese tech stocks is just beginning [12][25]. - Following the implementation of the registration system reform, a significant number of Chinese tech companies have gone public, with the number of companies in the "ChiNext + Sci-Tech Innovation Board" reaching 1,956, accounting for 38.1% of the total companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and their market capitalization reaching 21.2 trillion, which is 21.6% of the total market capitalization [12][13]. - Current valuations of Chinese tech indices reflect high market expectations for the development of Chinese tech companies, with the ChiNext 2000 index PE ratio at 98.3 times, the AI index at 83 times, and the Sci-Tech 50 index at 113.8 times, indicating a strong market sentiment [13][14]. Group 2 - The rise of Chinese tech stocks is still in its early stages, and historically, capital markets often experience a journey from 0 to 1 and then from 1 to 100, which can be lengthy and complex [16][25]. - The report draws parallels with the historical performance of the Chinese new energy vehicle index, which experienced significant growth phases, suggesting that the current trajectory of AI and humanoid robots in China is in the initial phase of development [19][20]. - The report emphasizes the need for patience regarding Chinese tech stocks, comparing their growth trajectory to that of U.S. tech stocks, which have historically undergone long-term growth processes [20][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to perform in line with the market benchmark over the next six months [7][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic watch industry, focusing on its own brand development and precision technology to foster new growth points. It emphasizes shareholder returns through dividends [7][6]. - The traditional watch consumption market is facing challenges such as demand contraction and intensified competition, with luxury goods and discretionary spending under pressure. The report cites a significant decline in personal luxury goods sales in mainland China, particularly in the watch category, which has been impacted by increased overseas consumption [5][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.77%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 220 million yuan, down 33.86% year-on-year [3][9]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 37.16%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 5.59%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][9]. - The company's retail service business for watches generated revenue of 2.935 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.4% year-on-year, while the watch brand business revenue was 722 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year [5][3]. Future Earnings Forecast - The report slightly lowers the company's growth rate expectations, forecasting revenue growth of 6% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and 7% in 2027. The net profit growth is projected at 8% in 2025, 7% in 2026, and 10% in 2027 [7][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.58 yuan in 2025, 0.62 yuan in 2026, and 0.68 yuan in 2027, with the current stock price corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times for 2025 [7][9].

➢ 风险提示 AI 大模型需求不及预期；下游终端出货不及预期；市场竞争加剧 风险；地缘政治风险；行业景气不及预期。 | + | | --- | 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 电子 2025 年 03 月 17 日 电子 存储大厂涨价，关注存储产业链 投资要点： ➢ 建议关注存储产业链重点公司： ➢ 德明利、江波龙、佰维存储、香农芯创、朗科科技、同有科技、 兆易创新、普冉股份、东芯股份、恒烁股份、聚辰股份、北京君正、 澜起科技等。 3、【华福电子】行业专题报告：智能驾驶大势所 趋，车载 CIS 蓄势待发——2025.02.17 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 行 业 研 究 -0.20 -0.06 0.08 0.22 0.36 0.50 3/18 5/29 8/9 10/20 12/31 3/13 电子 沪深300 团队成员 | 分析师： | 杨钟(S0210522110003) | | --- | --- | | YZ3979@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 郭其伟(S0210523080001) | | gqw30259@hfzq. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to perform in line with the market benchmark over the next six months [7][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic watch industry, focusing on its own brand development and precision technology to foster new growth points. It emphasizes shareholder returns through dividends [7][6]. - The traditional watch consumption market is facing challenges such as demand contraction and intensified competition, with luxury goods and discretionary spending under pressure. The report cites a significant decline in personal luxury goods sales in mainland China, particularly in the watch category, which has been impacted by increased overseas consumption [5][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.77%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 220 million yuan, down 33.86% year-on-year [3][9]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 37.16%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 5.59%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][9]. - The company's retail service business for watches generated revenue of 2.935 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.4% year-on-year, while the watch brand business revenue was 722 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year [5][3]. Future Earnings Forecast - The report slightly lowers the company's growth rate expectations, forecasting revenue growth of 6% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and 7% in 2027. The net profit growth is projected at 8% in 2025, 7% in 2026, and 10% in 2027 [7][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.58 yuan in 2025, 0.62 yuan in 2026, and 0.68 yuan in 2027 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [5] Core Insights - The storage manufacturers have announced price increases, indicating a potential recovery in storage prices. Sandisk plans to raise prices by over 10% starting April 1, 2025, reflecting the upward trend in NAND Flash wafer prices due to supply constraints and lower-than-expected inventory [9][10] - The mismatch in supply and demand is a primary driver for the increase in storage prices. Major suppliers like Micron and Samsung are reducing production, with Micron expecting a decline in NAND shipments in Q2 2025 and Samsung cutting its NAND flash output by 10%-15% [9][10] - The demand for storage is surging due to increased capital expenditures in AI, with major companies like Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft projected to spend a total of $297.2 billion in 2025, a 36.8% increase year-on-year [9][10] - The widening supply-demand gap in the storage market is expected to reverse previous pessimistic forecasts, potentially leading to a new investment cycle in the storage sector [9][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic industry index decreased by 0.62% in the week of March 10-14, 2025, while the ChiNext index rose by 0.97% and the CSI 300 index increased by 1.59% [12] - Among electronic sub-sectors, the components sector saw the highest weekly increase of 6.68%, while the semiconductor sector experienced a decline of 2.11% [14] Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on key companies in the storage supply chain, including Demingli, Jiangbolong, Baiwei Storage, Shannon Chip, Langke Technology, Tongyou Technology, Zhaoyi Innovation, Purun Co., East Chip, Hengshuo Co., Juchen Co., Beijing Junzheng, and Lankai Technology [2] Semiconductor Sector Developments - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to exceed $110 billion in total revenue in 2024, with North Huachuang rising to the sixth position among global suppliers [39] - Intel appointed a new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, effective March 18, 2025, aiming to stabilize the company amid significant challenges [36][38] Consumer Electronics Trends - Apple is expected to see a 2% decline in iPhone sales in China in 2025, with increased competition from Android brands benefiting from government subsidies [52] - The report highlights a significant drop in Apple's wireless earphone sales in China, down 31.7%, with Xiaomi taking the lead in market share [55] Automotive Electronics Insights - Global automotive sales increased by 49% year-on-year in February 2025, reaching 1.2 million units, despite challenges from EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [60] - NIO has implemented a 10% workforce reduction, primarily affecting its sales and customer service teams [62]

行 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 03 月 17 日 业 研 究 建筑材料 两办发文促进住房消费，建材板块有望全面受益 投资要点： 本周观点 行 业 定 期 报 告 近日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》， 方案提出要更好满足住房消费需求，持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳， 加力实施城中村和危旧房改造，充分释放刚性和改善性住房需求潜力，允 许专项债券支持城市政府收购存量商品房用作保障性住房，适时降低住房 公积金贷款利率，扩大住房公积金使用范围；自然资源部、财政部发文要 求支持运用专项债券开展土地储备工作，有效推动房地产市场止跌回稳； 金融监管总局会议强调坚决做好保交房工作；2 月社会融资规模存量 417.29 万亿元，同比增长 8.2%；深圳对住房公积金贷款和利息补贴政策进行调整 优化，涉及提高贷款额度、下调首付款比例、加大利息补贴力度等多项有 力举措；昆明推广灵活就业人员参加公积金试点；无锡锡山区推出购房补 贴政策，每套最高补贴 5 万元；宁波购房缴纳契税自 3 月 10 日起调整，首 套认定标准再扩大；苏州出台"三低一宽"购房金融产品，最低首付比例 15%。短期来看：1）稳增长压 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next six months [13]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a recovery in consumer expectations, driven by a comprehensive policy initiative aimed at boosting consumption across various sectors, including support for families, cultural tourism, and the promotion of new consumption patterns [2][3]. - The policy emphasizes enhancing consumer capacity through income support and optimizing the consumption environment to address key constraints on consumption [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Impact - The policy plan covers a wide range of areas, including support for families, cultural tourism, and the promotion of green and smart upgrades in durable consumer goods [2]. - Specific measures include establishing a childcare subsidy system, enhancing services for the elderly and children, and promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, particularly with the recovery of the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities and the anticipated impact of national subsidies [3]. - Recommended companies include leading custom furniture brands such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhihong Home, as well as soft furniture leaders like Mousse and Gujia Home [3]. - In the packaging sector, the report recommends focusing on 3C packaging leader Yutong Technology due to improved demand in the supply chain [3]. - For the cultural and personal care sectors, the report highlights Morning Glory as a leading cultural brand and suggests attention to diaper manufacturer Haoyue Care [3]. High-Growth Segments - The report identifies high-growth segments such as new consumption-related IP, toys, smart glasses, and e-cigarettes, recommending companies like Blukoo and Mingyue Optical [3]. - It also continues to recommend dental care leader Dengkang Dental, which is expected to see sustained growth due to its high-value products and effective channel strategies [3]. - The outdoor sports sector is highlighted for its demand growth, with recommendations for companies like Zhejiang Nature and Anta Sports [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights concerns over a potential economic recession in the US, driven by weak labor market data and PMI figures, alongside the impact of escalating tariffs under Trump's policies, leading to a significant decline in major US stock indices, with the Nasdaq down over 11% since late February [2][8][9] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February showed a year-on-year rate of 2.8%, the lowest since November, and a month-on-month rate of 0.2%, the lowest since October, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures and increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June [2][8][9] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, as market participants are keen to see if Chairman Powell will signal a dovish stance, which could help stabilize market sentiment amid ongoing uncertainties [2][8][9] Group 2 - The report tracks global asset performance, noting that COMEX silver (+4.79%) and NYMEX platinum (+4.51%) had the highest gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-3.07%) and Nasdaq Composite (-2.43%) experienced significant declines [3][30] - In the equity markets, the Shanghai Composite Index (+1.39%) and Shenzhen Component Index (+1.24%) showed positive performance, contrasting with declines in major US indices [33][38] - The report indicates that the energy sector in the US saw the largest gains (+2.79%), while the communications services sector faced the steepest losses (-3.68%) [38]