| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 03 月 29 日 \nGDP 上修欧日放鸽，地产边际放松仍看需求 \n华金宏观·双循环周报（第 51 期） | 宏观类●证券研究报告 \n定期报告 \n 分析师 秦泰 | | 投资要点 | SAC 执业证书编号： S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn | | 海外经济：美国 GDP 终值小幅上修，高增趋势有望延续。美国 2023 年四季度实 | 报告联系人 周欣然 | | 际 GDP 终值超预期小 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - March PMI increased significantly by 1.7 to 50.8, marking a 12-month high, but still 1.1 lower than the same period in 2023[1] - The rise is attributed to the post-Spring Festival recovery, as February PMI was unusually low due to pre-holiday factors[1] - The average PMI for the first quarter stands at 49.7, which is 1.0 and 0.7 lower than historical averages for recent years[1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - New orders index improved by 4.0 to 53.0, indicating a strong rebound, but the quarterly average remains 1.2 percentage points below historical levels[1] - Production and employment indices showed improvements of 2.4 and 0.6 respectively, aligning with seasonal trends[1] - The inventory index slightly rebounded to 48.9, but the overall trend indicates a continued phase of destocking[1] Group 3: Sector Performance - Service sector PMI rose for the third consecutive month, reaching 52.4, reflecting stable consumer demand for services[1] - Construction PMI surged by 2.7 to 56.2, indicating optimistic expectations for infrastructure investment driven by government policies[1] - The overall industrial outlook remains cautious, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand rather than supply constraints[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the telecommunications sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The telecommunications market experienced a decline of 3.43% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23% [7]. - China Mobile officially announced the commercial launch of 5G-A, marking the beginning of its construction phase [1][7]. - Guangdong Province aims to increase the proportion of domestic computing power to 70% by 2025, with a target of 38 EFLOPS in computing power [10][11]. - Shanghai's smart computing infrastructure plan aims for a sixfold increase in smart computing capacity by 2025, with a PUE value below 1.25 [11][10]. - The satellite sector is seeing advancements, including successful tests of liquid oxygen kerosene engines and the launch of quantum secure satellite data link projects by the European Space Agency [9][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Review - The telecommunications sector saw a decline of 3.43%, with the top-performing stocks being Shenyu Co. (20.41%), ST Luton (15.10%), and Sanwang Communication (13.95%) [7][18]. - The AI computing index fell by 7.36%, and the IDC index dropped by 6.29% [7]. 2. Quarterly Special (Satellite Internet) - Successful tests of liquid oxygen kerosene engines were reported, with a focus on the rocket industry chain companies [8]. - The European Space Agency initiated a project for quantum secure satellite data links, aiming to protect satellite communications from future encryption vulnerabilities [9]. - China successfully launched the Yunhai-3 satellite, which is intended for disaster prevention and scientific experiments [9]. 3. Industry Key News - Guangdong's action plan for high-quality development of computing power aims for a 70% domestic computing power share by 2025 [10]. - Shanghai's smart computing plan targets a smart computing capacity exceeding 30 EFLOPS by 2025, with a focus on energy efficiency [11]. - China Mobile's 5G-A commercial deployment will expand to over 300 cities within the year, establishing the largest 5G-A network globally [11][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 10% over the next six months [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of low-altitude infrastructure development and the integration of air and ground networks, driven by new policies from various government departments aimed at establishing a trillion-yuan market by 2030 [1]. - By 2027, the plan includes scaling up applications in aviation emergency rescue and logistics, with urban air traffic expected to achieve commercial operation [1]. - The report emphasizes the collaborative efforts between central and local governments to support the low-altitude economy, with significant policy updates and pilot projects underway [1][2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the implementation of the "General Aviation Equipment Innovation Application Implementation Plan (2024-2030)" aimed at creating a replicable model for low-altitude economic applications by 2027 and establishing a new development model characterized by high-end, intelligent, and green aviation by 2030 [1]. Policy Developments - Continuous updates to central policies since 2010 have laid a foundation for low-altitude economic development, with recent regulations such as the "Interim Regulations on the Flight Management of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles" coming into effect in January 2024 [1]. Market Potential - The report projects that by 2035, the scale of the national low-altitude economy could exceed 6 trillion yuan, driven by the integration of general aviation equipment into various sectors of production and daily life [1]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in low-altitude networks, navigation, radar modules, airborne systems, aircraft, and supporting infrastructure, including China Mobile, ZTE, and EHang Intelligent [2].

国 旗 下 企 业 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 息智能处理平台在矿山行业信息化建设中的地位和作用越来越重要，有望在煤矿智 能化开采 3.0 中应用。 风险提示：智能矿山建设不及预期，人才扩张不及预期，市场竞争加剧，海外业务 拓展不及预期。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 会计年度 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元 ) | 365 | 396 | 510 | 641 | 784 | | YoY(%) | 25.4 | 8.6 | 28.8 | 25.6 | 22.3 | | 归母净利润(百万元 ) | 80 | 84 | 108 | 135 | 164 | | YoY(%) | 26.9 | 5.3 | 28.2 | 24.6 | 22.0 | | 毛利率 (%) | 51.5 | 54.6 | 54. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the smart automotive industry [1] Core Insights - Digitalization drives the development of smart vehicles, enhancing corporate value and expanding the smart transportation space [2][4] - Huawei's entry into the automotive sector focuses on three areas: smart driving, smart cockpit, and smart connectivity [2][17] - The integration of intelligence brings value and incremental growth across various components, including lidar, onboard modules, and communication systems [2][9] Summary by Sections Digitalization of Smart Vehicles - The automotive industry is accelerating digitalization, which is becoming a consensus, with significant R&D investments from companies like BYD [5] - Digital technologies are enhancing the efficiency and value of design, development, and marketing processes in the automotive sector [5] Impact of Huawei on Smart Vehicle Manufacturing - Huawei's strategy in smart vehicle manufacturing emphasizes software, computing platforms, and sensors for smart driving [17][30] - The company has invested $3 billion in the smart automotive sector, with a dedicated R&D team of 7,000 [17] Value Increment from Intelligence - The value of vehicles is increasing as software and hardware replace traditional engines, with software value per vehicle expected to rise significantly by 2030 [9] - The smart transportation market is expanding rapidly, with significant project sizes and growth rates reported [12] Recommended Investment Targets - Suggested companies to watch include Juguang Technology, Feiling Kesi, and Meige Intelligent [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the integration of digital technologies in the automotive sector, particularly in smart driving and connectivity solutions [2][17]

2024年03月28日 行业研究●证券研究报告 通信 行业快报 补足 5G 中频物联场景，Redcap 商用进程加速 领先大市-B维持 投资评级 投资要点 首选股票 评级 600941.SH 中国移动 增持-B 事件：中国电信携手中国联通在浙江、贵州、广东、河南、上海5省/市现网环 600050.SH 中国联通 增持-B 境下完成RedCap全频段、全制式、全场景商用验证，启动百城规模商用进程。 601728.SH 中国电信 增持-B 000063.SZ 中兴通讯 增持-B 事件分析： 603236.SH 移远通信 增持-B 此次验证构建了全频段、全制式、全场景的5GRedCap端到端商用能力。全 300638.SZ 广和通 增持-B 频段方面，验证了在3.5GHz/2.1GHz/900MHz/800MHz上的RedCap网络能力， 002881.SZ 美格智能 增持-B 高中低频有效协同，网络各项性能表现良好，2.1GHz 上/下行速率可达 一年行业表现 115Mbps/220Mbps，应用在视联网场景下可支持20路以上的高清视频并发需求。 全制式方面，通过TDD与FDD技术的深度融合，能够在4G和5G ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate - A" [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.08 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.77 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year [1][3] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the consumer market and has made steady progress in expanding outside its home province [1][3] - The company aims to enhance its product offerings, particularly in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, and is expected to see significant revenue growth in the coming years [3][4] Revenue Analysis - The company achieved a revenue of 70.8 billion yuan in 2023, with a notable increase of 27.6% in Q4, amounting to 18.4 billion yuan [1][3] - The mid-to-high-end liquor segment, represented by the Shede series, generated 5.66 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 16% year-on-year [1][3] - The ordinary liquor segment, represented by the Tuo Pai series, achieved 910 million yuan in revenue, with a growth of 16.1% [1][3] Profit Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 74.5%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix and new production facilities coming online [1][3] - The net profit margin for 2023 was 25.03%, down 3.05 percentage points year-on-year [1][3] Outlook - For 2024, the company plans to continue promoting its key products, Tuo Pai T68 and She Zhi Dao, while solidifying its base market and accelerating its national expansion [1][3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 80.6 billion yuan, 92.8 billion yuan, and 105.7 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.01 billion yuan, 2.31 billion yuan, and 2.62 billion yuan [3][4][8] Financial Projections - The projected revenue for 2024 is 8.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.8% [4][8] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 2.01 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.6% [4][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 6.04 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.8x [4][8] Comparable Company Valuation - The company’s P/E ratio for 2024 is 13x, which is lower than the average P/E of 20x for comparable companies in the same sector [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the industry, indicating a projected return exceeding the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by more than 10% over the next six months [3]. Core Insights - The launch of the Xiaomi SU7 marks a significant step in the integration of computing power and intelligence in smart vehicles, with a starting price of 215,900 CNY and various configurations available [1][2]. - The report highlights the transition from L2 to L3+ autonomous driving capabilities in China's passenger vehicles, with an expected penetration rate of 51% for L2 features in 2023 [1]. - The smart cockpit market in China is projected to grow from approximately 73.9 billion CNY in 2022 to over 100 billion CNY by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7% [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Preferred stocks include: - 301191.SZ (Feiling Kesi) - "Accumulate" [1] - 600105.SH (Yongding Co.) - "Accumulate" [1] - 002881.SZ (Meige Intelligent) - "Accumulate" [1] Industry Performance - The report notes that the smart electric vehicle segment is experiencing rapid growth, driven by advancements in autonomous driving technology and smart cockpit features [1]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the shift towards Ethernet-based vehicle communication systems, with the market for Ethernet physical layer chips in mainland China expected to exceed 12 billion CNY by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of over 30% [2]. - The demand for high-bandwidth vehicle communication is pushing upgrades in vehicle architecture, transitioning to a centralized architecture with Ethernet as the primary communication method [2]. Technology Developments - The Xiaomi SU7 features advanced smart configurations, including the Xiaomi Surge OS and a self-developed large model for voice interaction and vehicle control [1]. - The report indicates that the integration of laser radar in smart vehicles is expected to increase significantly, with the number of sensors per vehicle projected to rise from approximately 8 to around 24 as the technology matures [1][2].

2024年03月29日 公司研究●证券研究报告 福莱特（ ） 公司快报 601865.SH 电力设备及新能源 | 太阳能Ⅲ 锚定市场，完善布局，增长可期 买入-A(维持) 投资评级 股价(2024-03-28) 28.83元 投资要点 事件：公司发布2023年年度报告，实现营业总收入215.24亿元，同比增长39.21%； 交易数据 归属于上市公司股东的净利润27.6亿元，同比增长30%。公司拟向全体股东每10 总市值（百万元） 67,788.68 股派发现金分红3.8元（含税），分红金额8.91亿元，包括中期现金分红，公司 流通市值（百万元） 54,750.02 23年分红比例高达52.57%。 总股本（百万股） 2,351.32 流通股本（百万股） 1,899.06 绿色发展，深入人心，光伏装机量再创新高：全球已经有多个国家提出“碳中和” 12个月价格区间 38.64/18.75 和“零碳”发展目标，大力发展风电、光伏等绿色能源成为全球共识。2023年， 全球光伏装机量再创新高达390GW，同比增加70%，装机量超过1GW的市场达 一年股价表现 到了32个，表明全球需求开花。其中，中国装机量为216. ...