春季行情还有吗？ 定期报告 投资要点 2025 年 01 月 04 日 策略类●证券研究报告 | 分析师 | 邓利军 | | --- | --- | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 | | | denglijun@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 张欣诺 | | | zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 张诗瀑 | | | zhangshipu@huajinsc.cn | 相关报告 新股二级交投持续呈现显著的分歧，当前或 正处于关键方向选择窗口-华金证券新股周 报 2024.12.30 一月可能继续震荡偏强，中小盘成长占优 2024.12.28 1 月金股推荐 2024.12.25 短期调整不改中小盘成长占优 2024.12.23 外力依旧是板块结构性活跃的重要驱动力， 或需警惕两级分化加剧-华金证券新股周报 2024.12.22 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 历史上春季行情节奏不一，政策或流动性偏紧、外部风险事件等可能导致震荡出现。 （1）历史上春季行情节奏各有不同。 ...

2025 年 01 月 03 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 消费内需带动制造业 PMI 平稳收官——PMI 点评（2024.12） 2024.12.31 利润跌幅收窄，主因降息降费——工业企业 利润点评（2024.11）暨双循环周报（第 88 期） 2024.12.27 日英央行按兵不动，无力扭转汇率跳水趋势 ——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 87 期） 长期国债收益率连续快速下行，美元指数却开年飙升人民币贬破 7.3。汇率约束下 如何实施好"适度宽松"的货币政策？这成为央行当前必须解决的、又会对春节前 后债市股市造成直接影响的一个关键问题。2024 年 12 月初我国 10 年国债收益率 降至2%以下低位运行，中下旬下行斜率迅速趋陡，至2025年1月2日报于1.6077% 的历史低位，较 2024 年 11 月末低达 41BP。与此同时，美国债券市场则开始定价 美联储年内最后一次会议降息同时给出的鹰派展望、以及导致美联储转鹰的特朗普 激进 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it is implied that the company is being covered for potential investment opportunities [33]. Core Insights - The company, 超研股份 (Chao Yan Co., Ltd.), specializes in the research, production, and sales of medical imaging equipment and industrial non-destructive testing equipment. It has a significant market presence in the ultrasound diagnostic equipment sector in China [7][21]. - The company reported revenues of 284.1 million CNY in 2021, 336.2 million CNY in 2022, and 326.5 million CNY in 2023, with year-over-year changes of -11.73%, 18.34%, and -2.87% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 76.8 million CNY in 2021, 127.1 million CNY in 2022, and 115.4 million CNY in 2023, with year-over-year changes of -4.10%, 65.48%, and -9.16% respectively [8][5]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 261 million CNY, a year-over-year increase of 10.75%, and a net profit of 92 million CNY, a year-over-year increase of 10.05% [8][21]. - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 14.54% and a net profit growth of 9.74% in 2024 compared to 2023, according to management's preliminary forecasts [8][28]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company has shown fluctuations in revenue and profit over the past three years, with a notable increase in 2022 followed by a slight decline in 2023. The revenue breakdown for 2023 indicates that medical ultrasound equipment accounted for 50.16% of total revenue [8][5]. Industry Situation - The global ultrasound medical imaging equipment market is projected to grow from 197,683 units in 2019 to 305,989 units by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.13%. China is expected to capture 60% of this growth, highlighting its potential as a key market [15][16]. Company Highlights - 超研股份 is recognized as a leading supplier of ultrasound diagnostic instruments in China, with a strong historical background dating back to 1983 when it developed the first domestically produced ultrasound device. The company has established partnerships with over 15,000 hospitals nationwide [21][23]. - The company is actively expanding its product lines into portable DR equipment, medical auxiliary diagnosis systems, and industrial non-destructive testing equipment, with several new products launched between 2023 and 2024 [24][21]. Fundraising Project Investment - The company plans to invest in four key projects through its IPO, including the development of medical imaging products, industrial non-destructive testing systems, portable DR systems, and the establishment of an innovation base [25][27]. Comparison with Industry Peers - In comparison to similar companies, 超研股份 has a lower revenue scale but maintains a competitive gross margin. The average revenue for comparable companies in 2023 was 6.099 billion CNY, with an average PE-TTM of 36.14X and an average gross margin of 54.96% [28][29].

2025 年 01 月 03 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 "跨端+IP"注入动能，关注 PC 游戏复苏趋势 传媒：上海发布人工智能新方案，AI 算力供需 双 端 或 迎 催 化 - 华 金 证 券 - 传 媒 - 行 业 快 报 2024.12.28 传媒："启元重症大模型"发布，"AI+"落地应 用 再 提 速 - 华 金 证 券 - 传 媒 - 行 业 快 报 2024.12.27 传媒：DeepSeek-V3 正式发布，国内 AI 模型 多领域提质增效-华金证券-传媒-行业快报 2024.12.27 投资要点 传媒 行业快报 投资评级 领先大市(维持) 首选股票 评级 一年行业表现 资料来源：聚源 | 升幅% | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -6.94 | 10.13 | -9.85 | | 绝对收益 | -10.17 | 5.21 | 2.96 | | 分析师 | | | 倪爽 | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910523020003 | | | | | nishuang@huajinsc.cn | | | | 报告联系人 ...

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 新股专题报告 2025年1月2日 数读IPO系列：2024年沪深新股总结 新股专题报告 分析师：李蕙 S0910519100001 联系人：戴筝筝 本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 核心观点 u 2024年在管理层统筹一二级市场动态平衡、及进一步强调上市公司发行质量的背景下，新股发行数量明显减少、募 集资金规模及平均募集资金金额明显下降；而随着2024年4月新"国九条"的发布，新股发行节奏及定价逐步步入新 常态。从新股发行数量来看，截至2024年12月27日，2024年度共有76只沪深新股挂牌上市，其中主板新股23只、科 创板新股15只、创业板新股38只；2024年沪深新股发行数量较2023年同比减少160只。从募集资金规模来看，截至 2024年12月27日，2024年沪深新股的首发募集资金总额为591.74亿元，较2023年同比少募82.69%；而从募集资金均 值来看，2024年沪深新股的平均首发募集资金为7.79亿元，较2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the relevant market index over the next 6-12 months [4][15]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated a clear advantage with its "geese formation" strategy, continuously expanding its downstream market [10]. - The flagship chip, RK3588, is positioned as a leading product with strong performance and high versatility, driving the company's platform in various AIoT fields [10]. - The company has maintained high R&D investment over the past three years, launching multiple new products, and is capable of providing a diverse range of AIoT chips with performance levels from 0.2TOPs to 6TOPs [10]. - The report anticipates revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 3.052 billion yuan, 4.014 billion yuan, and 5.198 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [11]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 520 million yuan, 782 million yuan, and 1.148 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 53.6, 35.6, and 24.2 [11][13]. - The total assets are projected to grow from 4.266 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.178 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a strong financial position [13]. - The report highlights a significant increase in gross margin and net profit margin, with expectations of 36.0% and 17.0% respectively for 2024 [11][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [20][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that starting from January 2025, TSMC will increase the foundry prices for its 3nm, 5nm, and CoWoS processes by 5% to 20% [20]. - There is a significant increase in demand for CoWoS and similar packaging capacities, projected to grow by 113% globally by 2025, driven by the strong demand for cloud AI accelerators [20]. - TSMC's monthly capacity is expected to rise to 65,000 wafers by the end of Q4 2025, with major clients like NVIDIA benefiting from this increase [20]. - The transition from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L is becoming evident, with NVIDIA's demand for CoWoS-L expected to surge from 32,000 wafers in 2024 to 380,000 wafers in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1018% [20]. - The report anticipates that by Q4 2025, CoWoS-L will account for 54.6% of TSMC's total CoWoS capacity, while CoWoS-S will represent 38.5% [20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the increasing prices of TSMC's 3nm and 5nm processes, which are expected to rise by 5% to 10%, and CoWoS technology prices are projected to increase by 15% to 20% due to high demand in the AI sector [20]. Market Demand - The demand for CoWoS packaging is driven by NVIDIA's products, which will utilize CoWoS-L technology in their B300 and GB300 series starting in 2025 [20]. - Other companies such as AMD and major tech firms like Broadcom, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google also show a certain level of demand for CoWoS technology [20]. Key Players - Major suppliers in the CoWoS market include TSMC, SPIL, and ASE, which are expanding their capacities to meet the growing demand [20].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - December manufacturing PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 to 50.1, remaining above the neutral level for the third consecutive month, indicating stable economic conditions[1] - New orders index rose by 0.2 to 51.0, reaching an 8-month high, reflecting improved overall demand in manufacturing[1] - Consumer goods PMI surged by 0.6 to 51.4, the second-highest level in 16 months, driven by the positive effects of consumption subsidies[1] Structural Challenges - Traditional investment-related indices and strategic emerging industry export orders showed structural weakness, with the export orders index dropping significantly by 3.3 to 44.2, the lowest since September[1] - The inventory index for finished goods rose slightly by 0.5 to 47.9, indicating ongoing challenges in the replenishment process due to declining infrastructure investment growth[1] Economic Outlook - The construction PMI increased sharply by 3.5 to 53.2, primarily influenced by the early Lunar New Year, rather than a trend improvement[1] - Service sector PMI rose by 1.9 to 52.0, reflecting strong consumer demand as the year-end approaches[1] - The report emphasizes that the stability of manufacturing PMI in 2025 will largely depend on the effectiveness of fiscal expansion policies aimed at boosting consumption[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Leading the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The power market is facing both challenges and opportunities, with a recommendation to focus on companies in power forecasting and load aggregation, such as Guoneng Rixin, Anke Rui, and Langxin Group [5] - The electricity trading volume in Guangdong Province for 2025 is projected to be 341.094 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.10%, with an average transaction price of 391.86 yuan/MWh, down 73.76 yuan/MWh or 15.84% year-on-year [7] - The electricity trading volume in Jiangsu Province for 2025 is expected to be 328.22 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98%, with an average price of 412.45 yuan/MWh, down 40.49 yuan/MWh or 8.94% year-on-year [7] - The annual electricity trading has cleared price risks, with the average transaction price in Guangdong for 2025 expected to be 391.86 yuan/MWh, reflecting a downward pressure on prices due to supply-demand structure and market competition [7] - The rapid increase in new energy installations and the commissioning of new thermal power units have led to a surplus in electricity supply, contributing to the downward trend in electricity prices [7] - The average utilization hours of national power generation equipment from January to November 2024 decreased by 151 hours compared to the same period last year, indicating a tightening demand [7] - The coal price has been on a downward trend, with market thermal coal prices expected to fall below long-term contract prices by 2025 [7] - The average price of electricity in Guangdong's spot market dropped to 0.3178 yuan/kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 26.74% [7] - The report highlights the increasing participation of new energy in market trading, with significant growth in the proportion of photovoltaic and wind power entering the market by 2025 [7] - The report suggests that with the clearing of electricity price risks, the focus shifts to investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly in companies like Changjiang Electric Power, China Nuclear Power, and Huadian International [7] Summary by Sections - **Electricity Market Dynamics**: The report discusses the ongoing marketization of the electricity sector, with various provinces implementing long-term electricity prices and the impact of new energy sources on market dynamics [7] - **Trading Volume and Price Trends**: Detailed statistics on trading volumes and average prices in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces for 2025, highlighting significant year-on-year changes [7] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: An analysis of the supply-demand structure, including the effects of new energy installations and coal price trends on electricity prices [7] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report emphasizes the potential for investment in the electricity sector, particularly in leading companies and regions, as the market continues to evolve [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the market (maintained)" [2][15]. Core Viewpoints - The 2024 New Year box office reached nearly 230 million yuan on December 28, 2024, with a total box office of 2.376 billion yuan as of December 29, 2024 [15]. - Several major films are scheduled for the 2025 Spring Festival, including "Nezha," "Fengshen," and "Detective Chinatown," indicating a strong lineup of IPs [15]. - The industry is expected to benefit from high-quality content that meets diverse audience needs, potentially igniting a viewing boom [15]. - The 2023 Chinese film market saw a strong recovery with a box office of 54.915 billion yuan and 1.299 billion viewers, marking significant growth [15]. - The 2025 Spring Festival period is anticipated to continue the trend of high box office performance with major IPs [15]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Rating**: The report maintains an "Outperform the market" rating for the industry, indicating expected growth exceeding 15% relative to market indices over the next 6-12 months [2][15]. - **Key Events**: The report highlights the impressive box office performance of the 2024 New Year films, with significant contributions from popular titles [15]. - **Market Trends**: The report notes that the Spring Festival and summer seasons are critical for the film market, with these periods accounting for 50% of annual box office revenue in recent years [15]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on companies such as Light Media, China Film, and Wanda Film, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming film releases [15].