Group 1 - In Q4 2024, northbound funds experienced significant outflows, with the total holding scale of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect reaching 2.19 trillion yuan, a decrease of 219.8 billion yuan from the previous quarter, but an increase of 188.6 billion yuan year-on-year [1][7] - The proportion of holdings in the main board continued to decline by 1.13 percentage points compared to Q3, while the proportions in the ChiNext and STAR Market increased by 0.56 percentage points each [1][7] - The net buy scale for Q4 2024 was -125.68 billion yuan, indicating a clear outflow trend for northbound funds [1][7] Group 2 - In terms of industry holdings, the largest sectors for northbound funds in Q4 2024 were power equipment and new energy, banking, and food and beverage, with the non-bank financial sector seeing the largest increase in holdings [2][11] - The net buying in Q4 was highest in non-bank financials (+15.4 billion yuan), media (+2.93 billion yuan), and new energy (+2.78 billion yuan), while the largest net selling occurred in electric power and public utilities (-21.28 billion yuan) and food and beverage (-18.78 billion yuan) [2][11] - The sectors with the highest overweight ratios were power equipment and new energy, home appliances, and food and beverage, while the lowest were oil and petrochemicals, banking, and national defense [2][11] Group 3 - Core assets and technology growth stocks remained favored by foreign capital, with significant changes in holdings for companies like CATL, Haiguan Information, and WuXi AppTec [3][13] - The top five stocks with the largest increase in holding value in Q4 were CATL (+4.93 billion yuan), Fuyao Glass (+4.43 billion yuan), Dongfang Wealth (+3.31 billion yuan), Haiguan Information (+2.69 billion yuan), and Changjiang Electric Power (+2.26 billion yuan) [3][14] - The concentration of holdings among the top five stocks increased by 0.24 percentage points to 20.1%, indicating a trend of foreign capital clustering towards leading stocks [3][14] Group 4 - Future northbound funds are likely to continue allocating towards core assets and technology leaders, with expectations of sustained inflows into A-shares due to a global liquidity easing environment [4][18] - The correlation between foreign capital inflows and domestic fundamentals, particularly real estate sales, suggests potential recovery in foreign investments as the real estate market improves [4][18] - Key sectors for future investment include core assets and technology, with a focus on companies like CATL and Northern Huachuang, as well as recent catalysts in the new energy and technology sectors [4][19]

短期可能见底，聚焦科技 定期报告 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用，政策超预期变化，经济修复不及预期。 2025 年 01 月 11 日 策略类●证券研究报告 | 分析师 | 邓利军 | | --- | --- | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 | | | denglijun@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 张欣诺 | | | zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 张诗瀑 | | | zhangshipu@huajinsc.cn | 相关报告 连续剧烈博弈之后风险偏好选择向下，休整 期或已经事实性开启-华金证券新股周报 2025.1.5 春季行情还有吗？ 2025.1.4 新股二级交投持续呈现显著的分歧，当前或 正处于关键方向选择窗口-华金证券新股周 报 2024.12.30 一月可能继续震荡偏强，中小盘成长占优 2024.12.28 1 月金股推荐 2024.12.25 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 牛市期间的中短期调整见底的信号是出现积极的政策或事件、 ...

Employment Data Insights - In December 2024, the U.S. added 256,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations and marking a nine-month high[1] - The labor participation rate remained steady at 62.5%, indicating stable labor supply towards the end of Biden's term[1] - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, reflecting a tightening labor market[1] Wage and Inflation Trends - Average hourly wages in December showed a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 3.9%, still the second-highest level in nine months[1] - The potential for a wage inflation spiral is increasing, which could lead to higher inflation rates[1] Sector Performance - The service sector was the primary driver of job growth, with significant contributions from retail, transportation, and professional services[1] - Manufacturing and mining sectors experienced job losses of 13,000 and 3,000 respectively, indicating weakness in these areas[1] Economic Policy Implications - The combination of high fiscal deficits and tight labor markets may lead to sustained high consumer demand in the U.S.[1] - The upcoming policies under Trump's second term could further tighten labor supply and increase trade barriers, impacting inflation and employment dynamics[1] Global Market Effects - The strong U.S. employment data may compress the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pushing the dollar index close to 110[1] - The ripple effects of U.S. monetary policy may lead to tighter monetary conditions in major non-U.S. economies, including China[1]

Export Performance - December exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 4.0 percentage points from November, marking the second-highest growth since August 2022[1] - The trade surplus in December reached a historic high of $104.84 billion, surpassing $100 billion for the first time[1] - Exports to the U.S. surged by 7.6 percentage points to 15.6% year-on-year, driven by a "rush to export" before the implementation of Trump's tariffs[1] Import Dynamics - December imports rebounded sharply by 4.9 percentage points to 1.0% year-on-year, following two months of decline[1] - The increase in imports was primarily driven by a recovery in domestic demand for chemical products and capital goods, with contributions rising by 0.8 and 2.7 percentage points respectively[1] - Imports of intermediate goods for processing surged by 7.4 percentage points to 14.5% year-on-year, influenced by the "rush to export" to the U.S.[1] Structural Insights - The easing of EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles is expected to have a lasting positive impact on the export structure, particularly in the automotive sector[1] - The semiconductor industry continues to face challenges due to intensified U.S. restrictions, with its contribution to total exports declining to just 0.1%, the lowest in nearly 10 months[1] - The overall export growth for 2024 is projected to increase by 10.5 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year, despite a low base effect[1] Future Outlook - The potential for a decline in export performance exists as Trump's administration may implement more aggressive tariffs, which could negatively impact both global and Chinese exports[1] - The Chinese government is expected to maintain high levels of fiscal subsidies, estimated at around $500 billion, to stimulate domestic consumption and counteract potential export declines[1] - The forecast for 2025 exports remains unchanged at a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, with risks of narrowing net export contributions to economic growth[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [2] Core Insights - The 2025 CES highlighted the extensive application of AI across various hardware, including AI smartphones, computers, and innovative devices like AI refrigerators and learning companions [1] - The market for companion robots is rapidly growing, with the global market size expected to reach 304.3 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 25.56% from 2024 to 2029 [6] - The report emphasizes the emergence of AI and AR glasses, with 47 models showcased at CES, indicating a competitive landscape in the eyewear segment [1] Summary by Sections AI and AR Glasses - Nearly 50 models of AI and AR glasses were exhibited, with 16 models being audio + camera AI glasses [1] - The report categorizes AI glasses into three types: pure audio AI glasses, audio + camera AI glasses, and display AI glasses [1] - Key products include GetD's AI audio glasses priced at $30 and various models from brands like 雷鸟 and Rokid featuring advanced display technologies [1][9] Companion Robots - Companion robots, such as Ropet and Ai Me, were significant highlights at CES, showcasing advanced emotional interaction capabilities [1] - Ropet simulates life-like responses and learns from user interactions, while Ai Me is described as a modular AI companion capable of various tasks [1][6] - The report notes the increasing societal focus on emotional needs, with the rise of companion robots addressing loneliness [6] Market Performance - The report provides performance metrics, indicating a relative return of -1.48% over one month and 15.36% over twelve months [4] - The absolute return figures show a decline of -8.83% over one month but a growth of 29.01% over twelve months [4] Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in optics, storage, cameras, and robotics, including names like 水晶光电, 歌尔股份, and 瑞芯微 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with projected revenue between 3.5 billion to 3.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.39% to 54.76% [1][7] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a mild recovery, leading to increased capacity utilization and revenue growth for the company [1] - The company has established itself as a primary supplier for many domestic SoC clients and is actively expanding its customer base, including clients in Taiwan, Europe, and the automotive electronics sector [1] - The company is enhancing its product lines in wafer-level packaging and automotive electronics, with a focus on a one-stop delivery capability [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 3.669 billion yuan for 2024, with a growth rate of 53.5% [8] - The expected net profit for 2024 is between 64 million to 75 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [1][7] - In Q4 2024, the company anticipates revenue between 948 million to 1.148 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24.74% to 51.05% [1] Product Line and Capacity - The company is focusing on expanding its product lines in advanced packaging technologies, particularly in 2.5D/3D packaging, which is expected to see rapid growth due to the demand for high-performance chips [2] - The one-stop delivery capability for "Bumping+CP+FC+FT" has been established, improving delivery times and quality control [1] Customer Expansion - The company has formed a customer base centered around leading design firms in niche markets and is making progress in expanding its reach to international clients [1][7] - The company is actively working to deepen cooperation with existing clients while also targeting new markets [1] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 3.669 billion, 4.562 billion, and 5.424 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 53.5%, 24.3%, and 18.9% [7][8] - The net profit projections for the same period are 64 million, 202 million, and 327 million yuan, with growth rates of 168.4%, 217.1%, and 61.4% [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company plans to invest approximately 2 billion yuan in a deep-sea transmission equipment project in Beihai, Guangxi, which will be developed in three phases [4] - The project aims to leverage Guangxi's potential in offshore wind power, with a planned capacity of 13.4 GW in the Beibu Gulf area, and is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in high-end submarine cables and related technologies [4] - The new policies for offshore wind management indicate a clear trend towards deep-sea projects, which are anticipated to become the main focus of offshore wind development in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 9.61 billion yuan, 11.81 billion yuan, and 14.08 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 31.5%, 22.9%, and 19.2% [6][8] - The expected net profits for the same years are 1.31 billion yuan, 1.91 billion yuan, and 2.44 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 30.9%, 45.7%, and 28.1% [6][8] - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.90 yuan, 2.77 yuan, and 3.55 yuan, with P/E ratios of 29, 20, and 15 respectively [5][6]

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank has decided to pause the purchase of government bonds to stabilize interest rates and exchange rates due to steep declines in long-term bond yields and increasing depreciation pressure on the CNY[6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to lower the 7-day reverse repo rate by approximately 40 basis points to stimulate new debt financing demand[10] - A significant reduction in the loan balance and social financing stock is anticipated, with year-on-year decreases of 2.0 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, by the end of 2025[10] Economic Outlook - The acceleration of debt replacement and the early timing of the Spring Festival may lead to a faster cooling of medium- and long-term loans for enterprises around the holiday period[2] - Despite a slowdown in RMB loans, the issuance of 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds is expected to provide some support, resulting in a smaller decline compared to credit[2] - The forecast for loan balance growth is 5.2% and for social financing stock is 6.6% by the end of 2025, indicating a continued downward trend[10] Risk Factors - There is a risk that the monetary easing may be less aggressive than anticipated, which could impact the overall economic recovery[3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market" indicating a relative performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [2][10]. Core Insights - COC/COP cyclic olefin polymers exhibit excellent properties and are primarily used in optical, medical, and packaging applications. The optical sector accounts for 53.2% of consumption, expected to rise to 55.4% by 2025 [1][2]. - The global apparent consumption of cyclic olefin polymers was approximately 62,000 tons in 2018, increasing to about 85,000 tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% [2]. - The domestic consumption of COC/COP in China was about 21,000 tons in 2021, growing to an estimated 29,000 tons by 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Application Areas - **Optical**: COC/COP is ideal for optical components due to its high transparency, low birefringence, and excellent thermal stability. Applications include smartphone lenses, security cameras, and AR/VR optics [1]. - **Medical**: COC/COP's biocompatibility and resistance to sterilization make it suitable for medical devices such as blood storage containers and prefilled syringes [1]. - **Packaging**: COC/COP can be blended with common polyolefins to enhance packaging performance, including food and pharmaceutical applications [1]. Market Dynamics - The price range for COC/COP products varies significantly, from 50,000 to 300,000 CNY per ton, depending on application and performance [2][4]. - Japanese manufacturers dominate the market, with major players including Zeon Corporation and Mitsui Chemicals, while domestic companies are ramping up production capabilities [5][7]. Technological Barriers - The production of cyclic olefin polymers involves complex processes and high technical barriers, with only a few global companies capable of large-scale production [4][5]. - Recent advancements in domestic production capabilities are being made, with companies like Acolyte and TuoXing Technology achieving industrial-scale production [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [28]. Core Insights - The company, Yalian Machinery, specializes in the research, production, sales, and service of artificial board production lines and supporting equipment. It has achieved significant revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase of 33.85% for 2024 [2][6][24]. - The company has a strong market position, being one of the few in the industry with complete production line capabilities and holding a leading market share in continuous press production lines for fiberboard and particleboard [18][19]. - Yalian Machinery is expanding its international market presence, having established operations in ten countries and signed multiple production line orders with reputable clients [19][20]. - The company is also diversifying its technology and products into new material board manufacturing, successfully applying its technology to rock fiber boards and other innovative materials [21]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 522 million yuan, 480 million yuan, and 647 million yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 50.13%, -8.0%, and 34.68% [7][24]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 618 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 43.77%, and a net profit of 126 million yuan, up 92.52% [6][7]. - The company's revenue is primarily derived from production lines, which accounted for 74.73% of total revenue in 2023 [7]. Industry Overview - The artificial board manufacturing industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a focus on fiberboard, particleboard, and plywood. The industry is moving towards domestic technology and equipment to meet both domestic and international market demands [14][15]. - The market for plywood production lines is characterized by small, dispersed enterprises and labor-intensive processes, indicating a trend towards automation and advanced production technologies [16]. - The fiberboard production sector has seen a shift towards continuous press technology, with a significant number of production lines in operation across the country [17].