| --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 12 月 08 日 \n外力继续驱动板块结构性活跃，但首日情绪降温或暗示变化也在累积 | 策略类●证券研究报告 \n新股专题 | | 投资要点 | 分析师 李蕙 | | 新股周观点：在多个重大产业事件影响下，新股次新板块延续结构性活跃行情；但 | SAC 执业证书编号： S0910519100001 | | 首日交投情绪出现剧烈波动，可能代表短端新股做多动能分歧加大、变化或也正在 | lihui1@huajinsc.cn | | 累积。短期，重大会议及产业事件发酵预计还将推动板块局部热度，但我们依然强 | 相关报告 | | 调尾端行情应保持灵活适度和耐心谨慎，重视平衡估值性价 ...

Group 1 - The core drivers of the year-end market rally are policies, external events, and liquidity, with historical data showing that the Shanghai Composite Index has an average increase of 10% during such rallies, lasting between 15 to 80 trading days [1][15]. - Positive policies and external events are crucial for initiating a year-end rally, as seen in previous years when favorable economic meetings or agreements led to market upswings [1][15]. - Tight liquidity at year-end can delay the start of the rally, as evidenced by instances where central bank actions led to market slowdowns [1][15]. Group 2 - The report suggests that year-end policies may be positive and liquidity may be loose, indicating a potential for a year-end market rally [2][19]. - Existing policies are expected to accelerate in implementation, with significant funding allocated for infrastructure and consumer incentives, which could boost domestic demand [2][19]. - External risks are anticipated to be limited, with geopolitical tensions showing signs of easing, which may positively influence market sentiment [2][19]. Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to continue a strong trend, with economic recovery and profit growth likely to persist [3][30]. - Economic indicators such as the manufacturing PMI have shown improvement, suggesting a gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector [3][35]. - The real estate market is also showing signs of recovery, with significant increases in sales in major cities, supported by favorable policies [3][36]. Group 4 - Short-term investment focus is recommended on technology growth and core assets, as historical trends indicate that technology sectors often lead market rallies [4][19]. - Specific sectors such as military, communication, and healthcare are highlighted as having potential for growth, alongside consumer sectors like home appliances and textiles [4][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy and industry trends that favor sectors like AI applications, domestic software, and semiconductor industries [4][19].

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, a significant rebound from the previous month's impact of hurricanes and strikes, which saw a reduction of 191,000 jobs[1] - The combined job revisions for September and October amounted to an increase of 56,000 jobs[1] - The service sector, heavily impacted by hurricanes, saw a substantial rebound, while manufacturing jobs increased by 22,000 in November, recovering from previous losses[1] Labor Market Indicators - The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in November, while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[1] - Average hourly wage growth remained steady at 4.0% for the second consecutive month, indicating strong demand in the labor market[1] Economic Outlook - The strong employment and wage growth in November support expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will not lower interest rates in December[1] - The potential for a wage inflation spiral may increase due to the policies of the incoming Trump administration, which could lead to a tighter labor market and rising consumer prices[1] - The dollar index is expected to strengthen, posing challenges for domestic monetary policy and exchange rate management in China[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that it is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [51]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Zhongli Co., Ltd. (603194.SH), specializes in the research, production, and sales of electric forklifts and other powered industrial vehicles, achieving significant revenue growth and maintaining a leading market position in the electric forklift sector [17][18]. - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with revenues increasing from 4.206 billion yuan in 2021 to 5.921 billion yuan in 2023, and a net profit growth from 352.8 million yuan to 805.7 million yuan during the same period [7][18]. - The electric forklift market is experiencing a notable shift towards electric vehicles, with the penetration rate of electric forklifts in China reaching 67.87% in 2023, reflecting a growing trend of replacing internal combustion forklifts [37][34]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company reported revenues of 4.206 billion yuan, 5.011 billion yuan, and 5.921 billion yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 69.84%, 19.13%, and 18.16% [18]. - The net profit for the same years was 352.8 million yuan, 627 million yuan, and 805.7 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 59.34%, 77.71%, and 28.51% [18]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 4.827 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7.79%, and a net profit of 650 million yuan, up 4.27% [18]. Industry Situation - The global powered industrial vehicle market is experiencing stable growth, with electric forklifts gaining market share. The sales volume of electric forklifts increased from 534,700 units in 2013 to 1,544,000 units in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.19% [26][34]. - In China, the sales volume of electric forklifts surpassed that of internal combustion forklifts for the first time in 2020, and by 2023, the market share of electric forklifts reached 67.87% [34][37]. Company Highlights - Zhongli Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer in the electric forklift sector, with a market share exceeding 30% from 2021 to 2023. The company has maintained its position as the top producer of electric warehouse forklifts and lithium battery forklifts in China [37][38]. - The company is actively expanding into the mobile handling robot business, which is becoming a trend in the industry due to rising labor costs and the need for automation [38]. Fundraising Project Investment - The company plans to invest in four projects through its IPO, including the production of electric forklifts and smart industrial robots, which are expected to enhance production capacity and market share [39][42]. Comparison with Peers - In 2023, Zhongli Co., Ltd. achieved revenues of 5.921 billion yuan and a net profit of 806 million yuan, while comparable companies had an average revenue of 13.568 billion yuan and an average PE-TTM of 11.05X [44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months compared to the relevant market index [51]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Boke Testing (301598.SZ), specializes in the research, design, manufacturing, sales, and system integration of servo hydraulic testing equipment and automotive testing equipment. It has established a strong technical foundation through the acquisition of Servotest and exclusive agency rights from the international supplier, Bock [15][37]. - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with projected revenue for 2024 expected to increase by 9.53% year-on-year, alongside a 4.10% increase in net profit [46]. - Boke Testing has a market share of approximately 15% in the high-end servo hydraulic testing market and is actively expanding into new applications such as electric vehicles and autonomous driving [37][41]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved revenues of 4.05 billion, 4.59 billion, and 4.69 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.42%, 13.14%, and 2.27% respectively. The net profit for the same years was 0.82 billion, 0.98 billion, and 0.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.68%, 18.73%, and -1.49% [17][46]. Industry Situation - The company focuses on the servo hydraulic testing equipment and automotive testing equipment sectors. The global hydraulic market is maturing, with a market size of approximately 306.82 billion euros in 2022, and China being the second-largest market [26][28]. Company Highlights - Boke Testing has established itself as a leading provider of servo hydraulic testing systems and automotive testing systems, benefiting from its early technical foundation and exclusive agency rights [37][41]. - The company has developed a significant customer base, including major automotive manufacturers and universities, enhancing its market presence [16][37]. Peer Comparison - Compared to its peers, Boke Testing's revenue of 4.69 billion yuan in 2023 is below the average of 9.88 billion yuan for comparable companies, but its gross margin of 44.97% is in the mid-high range among peers [6][47].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected increase in stock price greater than 15% over the next 6-12 months [51]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Boke Testing (301598.SZ), specializes in the research, design, manufacturing, sales, and system integration of servo hydraulic testing equipment and automotive testing equipment. It has established a strong technical foundation through the acquisition of Servotest and exclusive agency rights from the international supplier, Bock [15][37]. - The company reported revenues of 405.5 million, 458.8 million, and 469.2 million yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 9.42%, 13.14%, and 2.27% [17][46]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 322 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 14.33%, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 83.48% [17]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved operating revenues of 4.05 billion, 4.59 billion, and 4.69 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with corresponding net profits of 0.82 billion, 0.98 billion, and 0.96 billion yuan [17][46]. - The revenue for 2023 was primarily derived from three segments: servo hydraulic testing system solutions (1.83 billion yuan, 39.08%), automotive testing system solutions (2.76 billion yuan, 58.72%), and agency services (0.10 billion yuan, 2.20%) [17]. Industry Situation - The company focuses on the servo hydraulic testing equipment and automotive testing equipment sectors, which are experiencing growth due to increasing demand for advanced testing solutions in various industries [25][29]. - The global hydraulic market is maturing, with a projected market size of 306.82 billion euros in 2022, and China being the second-largest market with a share of approximately 36.52% [26]. Company Highlights - The acquisition of Servotest has positioned the company as a leading provider of servo hydraulic testing systems and automotive testing systems in China, leveraging over sixty years of technical expertise from Servotest [37]. - The company has established itself as a core supplier in the high-end servo hydraulic testing market, holding approximately 15% market share, and is actively expanding into new applications such as electric vehicles and autonomous driving [41]. Comparable Company Analysis - Compared to peers like Lian Ce Technology and Su Shi Testing, the company’s revenue for 2023 was 4.69 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.96 billion yuan, while the average revenue of comparable companies was 9.88 billion yuan [6][47]. - The company maintains a gross margin of 44.97%, which is competitive within the industry [47].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that it is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [51]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Zhongli Co., Ltd. (603194.SH), specializes in the research, production, and sales of electric forklifts and other industrial vehicles, establishing itself as a leader in the electric forklift sector with a market penetration rate of 67.87% in 2023 [17][37]. - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with operating income increasing from 4.206 billion yuan in 2021 to 5.921 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 69.84%, 19.13%, and 18.16% respectively [7][18]. - The company is actively expanding into the mobile handling robot business, which is expected to enhance its product structure and meet the growing demand for automated solutions in logistics [38]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved operating revenues of 4.206 billion yuan, 5.011 billion yuan, and 5.921 billion yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 69.84%, 19.13%, and 18.16% [7][18]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 352.8 million yuan, 627 million yuan, and 805.7 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 59.34%, 77.71%, and 28.51% [7][18]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 4.827 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.79%, and a net profit of 650 million yuan, up 4.27% year-on-year [18]. Industry Situation - The global industrial vehicle market is experiencing stable growth, with electric forklifts gaining market share. The sales volume of electric forklifts increased from 534,700 units in 2013 to 1,544,000 units in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.19% [26][27]. - In China, the sales volume of electric forklifts surpassed that of internal combustion forklifts for the first time in 2020, with a market share of 67.87% in 2023 [34]. Company Highlights - Zhongli Co., Ltd. is recognized as a leading manufacturer in the electric forklift sector, with significant market shares in electric warehouse forklifts and lithium battery forklifts [37]. - The company has established a strong export presence, particularly in North America and Europe, which enhances its resilience against international trade risks [37]. - The company is also focusing on the development of mobile handling robots, which are expected to meet the increasing demand for automation in logistics [38]. Investment Projects - The company plans to invest in four projects through its IPO proceeds, including the production of electric forklifts and smart industrial robots, which are expected to significantly increase its production capacity and revenue [39][42]. Peer Comparison - In 2023, Zhongli Co., Ltd. achieved operating revenue of 5.921 billion yuan and a net profit of 806 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 28.72%, which is above the industry average [44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market," indicating an expected outperformance of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - OpenAI has announced a 12-day event starting December 6, featuring multiple product launches, including the "full version" of the reasoning model o1 and ChatGPT Pro, which are expected to catalyze the "AI+ application" sector [2]. - The company completed a $6.6 billion financing round in October, achieving a post-money valuation of $157 billion, and secured a $4 billion revolving credit facility, showcasing strong investor confidence in leading AI firms [2]. - The launch of the o1 model is anticipated to enhance the performance and application scope of large AI models, creating new development opportunities for related upstream and downstream industries [2]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - OpenAI's event includes daily live streams showcasing new products, with significant attention from the industry expected to drive ongoing interest in AI applications [2]. Market Performance - The report notes a 1-month relative return of 13.12%, a 3-month return of 27.41%, and a 12-month return of -8.14% for the industry, indicating fluctuating performance [2]. Product Launches - The o1 model offers significant performance improvements, enabling faster processing of complex tasks and more accurate reasoning results, while ChatGPT Pro provides unlimited access to all OpenAI models for end users [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tencent Holdings, NetEase, and others in the AI+ application space, as they are expected to benefit from the upcoming product launches and market developments [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market," indicating an expected outperformance of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant breakthrough in video generation technology with Tencent's launch of the "Hunyuan" model, which features 13 billion parameters and is now open-source, enabling developers to reduce costs and enhance technological innovation in the industry [2]. - The open-source video generation model is expected to drive complementary product ecosystems, benefiting both B2B and B2C content production [2]. - The model has demonstrated superior performance in various metrics compared to leading domestic and international models, achieving an overall score of 41.30%, significantly ahead of competitors [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Tencent's open-source video generation model marks a milestone, with the model now available on the Tencent Yuanbao app for C-end users and accessible for B-end enterprises through Tencent Cloud [2]. - The model supports bilingual input and various video formats, achieving ultra-realistic quality and smooth motion, particularly excelling in generating dynamic scenes [2]. Market Performance - The report notes that the open-source video generation technology is continuously evolving, leading to upgrades in related technologies and enabling expansion into video dubbing and music features [2]. - The introduction of 2D digital human technology enhances the naturalness and consistency of generated content, further stimulating the growth of video editing and dubbing ecosystems [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tencent Holdings, NetEase, and others in the content production and marketing sectors, as the advancements in video generation technology are expected to drive growth in these areas [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market (Maintain)" [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the accelerating iteration of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) technology, emphasizing the increasing importance of domestic self-sufficiency in light of U.S. export restrictions [2]. - The global HBM market is projected to exceed $30 billion by 2025, with HBM accounting for approximately 15% to 20% of DRAM wafer capacity [2]. - The introduction of advanced technologies such as hybrid bonding in HBM4 is expected to enhance performance and energy efficiency [2]. - The report suggests that the strong demand driven by AI is propelling rapid growth in the HBM market, while continuous upgrades in HBM technology present new investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Sections HBM Market Dynamics - SK Hynix plans to adopt TSMC's 3nm process for HBM4 production, with the first prototypes expected by March 2025 [2]. - Samsung is also expected to provide HBM4 samples in the second half of 2025, with mass production planned for the 2026 fiscal year [2]. - By the end of 2024, the combined HBM capacity of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is projected to reach 300,000 wafers per month [2]. Technological Advancements - HBM4 will utilize TSMC's 3nm advanced logic process, marking a shift from previous DRAM-based bare chips [2]. - The report notes that the introduction of no-bump bonding technology is being actively pursued by major manufacturers to reduce DRAM stacking distances [2]. Regulatory Environment - Recent U.S. export controls on advanced HBM highlight the growing importance of domestic self-sufficiency in the HBM supply chain [2][4]. - Domestic manufacturers such as Wuhan Xinxin and Changxin Storage are in the early stages of HBM production, with significant capacity expansion plans [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the HBM supply chain, including packaging and testing firms like Tongfu Microelectronics and Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology [4]. - Equipment manufacturers such as Tuojing Technology and Huahai Qingke are also highlighted as potential investment targets [4].