http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 下 下 = | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 12 月 09 日 \n定调积极，跨年行情来临 | 策略类●证券研究报告 \n事件点评 | | 投资要点 | 分析师 邓利军 | | 事件：中共中央政治局 12 月 9 日召开会议，分析研究 2025 年经济工作。 | SAC 执业证书编号： S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn | | 超预期的：适度宽松的货币政策、稳住楼市股市。（1）15 年以来再提实施适度宽 | 报告联系人 张欣诺 | | 松的货币政策，后续货币政策可能进一步宽松。一是央行的货币政策操作需要兼顾 | zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn | | ...

446 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 12 月 09 日 \n12.9 政治局会议点评 | 固定收益类●证券研究报告 \n事件点评 | | 投资要点 | 牛逸 | | 事件简介 | 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号： S0910523040001 | | 2024 年 12 月 9 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究 2025 年经济工作。受会 | niuyi@huajinsc.cn | | 议相关政策表态影响，债市做多情绪点燃，十债再次突破前低，收盘于 1.9168% 。 | 相关报告 | | 事件点评 | 股债兼修，稳健低波 -华商基金胡中原先生 投资分析报告 2024.12.4 | | 我们认为，本次会议关于"实施更加积极的财政政策"是对前期政策效果得积极肯 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5] Core Insights - The box office during the 2024 holiday season has been active, with the total box office (including pre-sales) surpassing 1 billion as of December 6, 2024 [2] - The holiday season box office accounts for nearly 70% of the annual box office, with 2024's holiday box office at 243.2 billion, compared to 68% in 2023 and 2022 [2] - The performance of holiday box office is expected to determine the total annual box office volume [2] - The New Year's Day box office reached 1.53 billion, setting a historical record for the period, while the Spring Festival box office was 8.04 billion, breaking previous records [2] - The audience demographic is shifting, with women born after 1995 becoming the main moviegoers, and the distribution in lower-tier cities stabilizing [2] - The frequency of watching short videos is increasing, while the frequency of going to cinemas is declining by 9% [2] Summary by Sections Box Office Performance - The 2024 holiday box office has shown strong performance, with significant contributions from various holiday periods [2] - The box office for the Spring Festival reached 8.04 billion, with "Hot and Spicy" earning 2.72 billion during the period [2] Audience Trends - The audience profile indicates a growing interest among younger women, particularly those born after 1995 [2] - The viewing habits are evolving, with a notable increase in short video consumption and a decrease in cinema attendance [2] Content Supply and Market Dynamics - The supply of new content is crucial for maintaining audience engagement, with a noted decline in the number of films released in subsequent periods [2] - The rise of micro-short dramas is enriching the video market, with user engagement in this format increasing significantly [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The introduction of the self-developed X1 chip by XREAL marks the beginning of the native 3DoF AR era, significantly reducing MTP latency and breaking the dependency on external terminals [2] - Traditional AR glasses face high MTP latency issues, often exceeding 20ms, leading to user discomfort. The new architecture of XREAL One reduces signal processing nodes from 6 to 3 and transmission paths from 5 to 2, enhancing reliability and user experience [2] - XREAL's product vision includes two directions: Spatial Display and Spatial Computing, aiming to provide portable spatial screens and a foundation for future AR experiences [2] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating of "In line with the market" [2] Key Investment Points - The X1 chip enables an independent processing chain for AR glasses, reducing latency and improving user comfort [2] - The new processing architecture enhances reliability by minimizing the number of signal processing nodes and transmission paths [2] - XREAL aims to integrate with existing mobile and computer ecosystems while developing advanced AR capabilities [2] Product Features - The XREAL One features a Sony Micro-OLED display with a resolution of 3840 x 1080 for dual-eye, a contrast ratio of 100,000:1, and a maximum brightness of 600nit [6] - It supports a refresh rate of up to 120Hz and has a field of view (FOV) of 50 degrees, enhancing the visual experience [6] - The device includes advanced audio features such as "far-field noise cancellation" technology [6]

Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized a clear requirement to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, contrasting with previous meetings[11] - Policies to stabilize the real estate market in 2025 are expected to include increasing special bonds by approximately 600-800 billion RMB for housing and land recovery[12] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to rise to around 4.2% in 2025, with an expected issuance of over 1.5 trillion RMB in ordinary government bonds[31] Group 2: Consumption and Investment Strategies - There is a strong focus on boosting domestic demand, with consumption being prioritized over investment growth[17] - The central government is expected to allocate around 500 billion RMB for high-intensity consumption subsidies in 2025, expanding the scope to include furniture and communication equipment[18] - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to remain stable, with a shift towards digital and smart construction as new growth points[18] Group 3: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Monetary policy is expected to shift to a moderately loose stance, with an anticipated interest rate cut of around 40 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio reduction of 100-150 basis points in 2025[44] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to fluctuate between 7.2 and 7.6 against the USD, allowing for some depreciation to mitigate export impacts[44] - The focus will be on reducing financing costs for the real economy, with policy rates and LPR expected to decrease by approximately 40 basis points[45]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November, the overall CPI decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[2] - The food CPI fell by 2.7% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the seasonal average decline by 2.5 percentage points, leading to a year-on-year drop of 1.9 percentage points to 1.0%[2] - The core CPI's increase was driven by industrial consumer goods, marking a second consecutive month of slight recovery, with a 0.1 percentage point rise to 0.3%[2] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while month-on-month it increased by 0.1%, marking the first slight increase in five months[2] - The main drivers for the PPI's month-on-month increase were the oil and petrochemical industry chains, with coal mining and black metal prices showing a weakening trend, indicating a lack of significant domestic investment demand[2] - The PPI's unique pricing logic is influenced by the domestic supply-demand cycle, particularly in the coal and metallurgy sectors, which differ from other major industrial countries[2] Group 3: Future Projections - The report predicts a gradual recovery of the core CPI, estimating a year-on-year CPI of 0.5% in December and an average of 0.6% for 2025, which is a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2024[2] - The government aims to maintain a high public budget deficit rate of 4.2% in 2025, with approximately 500 billion allocated for durable consumer goods subsidies and 600-800 billion for affordable housing and land recovery[2] - The emphasis on sustainable consumption growth rather than reliance on traditional infrastructure investment is highlighted as a key strategy for economic resilience[2]

Company Overview - The report focuses on **Lintai New Materials (920106.BJ)**, a company specializing in the R&D, production, and sales of automotive automatic transmission friction plates [2] - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of friction plates for passenger vehicle automatic transmissions and has a strong position in the domestic market [16] - Lintai New Materials has established stable supply relationships with major domestic automatic transmission manufacturers and OEMs, including SAIC Transmission, Wanliyang, Dongan Engine, Geely Transmission, and BYD [16] Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2023, the company achieved revenues of **132 million yuan**, **176 million yuan**, and **207 million yuan**, with YoY growth rates of **37.70%**, **33.82%**, and **17.33%** respectively [17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew from **16.4 million yuan** in 2021 to **49.2 million yuan** in 2023, with YoY growth rates of **12.53%**, **50.94%**, and **98.44%** respectively [17] - In the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenue of **193 million yuan**, a YoY increase of **36.76%**, and net profit of **46 million yuan**, a YoY increase of **72.57%** [17] - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin have remained at relatively high levels compared to industry peers, with a gross profit margin of **42.07%** in 2023 [20][42] Industry Analysis - The domestic market size for passenger vehicle automatic transmission friction plates in 2023 was approximately **6.119 billion yuan**, with a projected growth to **13.465 billion yuan** by 2035 [23][32] - In the engineering machinery and agricultural machinery sectors, the market size for automatic transmission friction plates is expected to grow from **1.298 billion yuan** in 2023 to **5.726 billion yuan** by 2035 [30][32] - The commercial vehicle sector also presents growth opportunities, with the market size for automatic transmission friction plates expected to increase from **52 million yuan** in 2023 to **294 million yuan** by 2035 [32] Investment Highlights - Lintai New Materials is a leader in the domestic passenger vehicle automatic transmission friction plate market and is well-positioned to benefit from the acceleration of domestic substitution in this field [16][33] - The company has successfully developed wet paper-based friction plates that break the technological monopoly of the US and Japan, achieving domestic substitution and industrialization of original domestic technology [33] - Lintai New Materials has a strong presence in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with NEV-related sales revenue increasing from **1.04%** of total revenue in 2021 to **22.53%** in the first half of 2024 [37] - The company has established stable cooperation with NEV leaders such as BYD, supplying friction plates for BYD's DM-i plug-in hybrid models [37] IPO and Fundraising Projects - The company plans to raise funds through an IPO for two main projects: 1) A project to produce **30 million pieces** of paper-based friction plates and mating plates annually for automotive (including NEVs), engineering machinery, and high-end agricultural machinery [38][39] 2) A multi-purpose wet friction plate R&D center project focusing on the development of friction plates for pure electric vehicles, agricultural machinery, engineering machinery, and heavy-duty trucks [38][39] - The total investment for these projects is **213.4 million yuan**, with **116 million yuan** to be raised through the IPO [39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market" which indicates an expected performance that exceeds the relevant market index by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing advancements in AI technology, particularly in reasoning applications, with significant developments from key players like Stanford University and OpenAI [2]. - The emergence of new AI models and products, such as OpenAI's recent announcements, is setting industry benchmarks for technology and user engagement [2]. - The report emphasizes the critical role of technological breakthroughs, industry implementation, and collaboration in bridging the gap between science and application in AI development [2]. - AI's evolution is marked by the integration of algorithms, data, and computing power, which are essential for advancing AI capabilities [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes that AI technology continues to iterate with new breakthroughs, showcasing the importance of technological advancements in driving the industry forward [2]. - The AI sector is expected to see significant growth in edge applications, with increasing deployment in various fields such as AI glasses, AI headphones, and autonomous vehicles [2]. Key Developments - Major announcements from companies like Google DeepMind and Meta regarding new AI models indicate a competitive landscape focused on enhancing virtual world generation and performance [2]. - The report mentions the anticipated release of high-output robotic products, reflecting the ongoing integration of machine learning technologies [2]. Market Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on companies such as Haiguang Information, Longxin Zhongke, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery in the market [4].

| --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 12 月 08 日 \n外力继续驱动板块结构性活跃，但首日情绪降温或暗示变化也在累积 | 策略类●证券研究报告 \n新股专题 | | 投资要点 | 分析师 李蕙 | | 新股周观点：在多个重大产业事件影响下，新股次新板块延续结构性活跃行情；但 | SAC 执业证书编号： S0910519100001 | | 首日交投情绪出现剧烈波动，可能代表短端新股做多动能分歧加大、变化或也正在 | lihui1@huajinsc.cn | | 累积。短期，重大会议及产业事件发酵预计还将推动板块局部热度，但我们依然强 | 相关报告 | | 调尾端行情应保持灵活适度和耐心谨慎，重视平衡估值性价 ...

Group 1 - The core drivers of the year-end market rally are policies, external events, and liquidity, with historical data showing that the Shanghai Composite Index has an average increase of 10% during such rallies, lasting between 15 to 80 trading days [1][15]. - Positive policies and external events are crucial for initiating a year-end rally, as seen in previous years when favorable economic meetings or agreements led to market upswings [1][15]. - Tight liquidity at year-end can delay the start of the rally, as evidenced by instances where central bank actions led to market slowdowns [1][15]. Group 2 - The report suggests that year-end policies may be positive and liquidity may be loose, indicating a potential for a year-end market rally [2][19]. - Existing policies are expected to accelerate in implementation, with significant funding allocated for infrastructure and consumer incentives, which could boost domestic demand [2][19]. - External risks are anticipated to be limited, with geopolitical tensions showing signs of easing, which may positively influence market sentiment [2][19]. Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to continue a strong trend, with economic recovery and profit growth likely to persist [3][30]. - Economic indicators such as the manufacturing PMI have shown improvement, suggesting a gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector [3][35]. - The real estate market is also showing signs of recovery, with significant increases in sales in major cities, supported by favorable policies [3][36]. Group 4 - Short-term investment focus is recommended on technology growth and core assets, as historical trends indicate that technology sectors often lead market rallies [4][19]. - Specific sectors such as military, communication, and healthcare are highlighted as having potential for growth, alongside consumer sectors like home appliances and textiles [4][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy and industry trends that favor sectors like AI applications, domestic software, and semiconductor industries [4][19].