华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|-----------------------------------------|-------------------------|----------------------| | 2024 年 10 月 13 日 \n长电科技（ 600584.SH ） | | | 公司研究●证券研究报告 | 公司快报 | | | | | 电子 \| | 集成电路Ⅲ | | 预计 24Q3 营收同环比双增，晟碟完成交割扩大 | 投资评级 | | 买入 | -A(维持) | | 存储优势 | 股价 | (2024-10-11) | | 36.55 元 | | 投资要点 | 交易数据 | 总市值（百万元） | | 65,403.10 | | 下游需求复苏带动公司产 ...

Market Overview - Investment sentiment for trading-type funds has declined, leading to a significant adjustment in the new stock and newly listed sectors, with an average weekly decline of approximately -5.5% for new stocks since 2023, compared to a previous increase of 16.6%[1] - The proportion of new stocks achieving positive returns last week was only about 12.3%, a sharp drop from 100% in the prior week[1] Market Phases - The recent active market for new stocks can be divided into three phases: the first phase began on September 24, driven by policy changes; the second phase saw a surge in enthusiasm from September 27 to September 30; the third phase, currently ongoing, reflects a comprehensive adjustment as enthusiasm wanes[1] - The current phase indicates a return to a more cautious market, suggesting that the previous broad rally driven by market enthusiasm may be concluding[1] Future Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, there is an expectation for a structural active market driven by the inherent cycle logic of new stocks, especially as fiscal policies and quarterly performance reports are anticipated to be released soon[1] - New stocks with strong performance expectations and those benefiting from policy catalysts should be closely monitored for potential investment opportunities[1] Upcoming New Stocks - Three new stocks are set to be listed this week, all from the ChiNext board, with an average issuance price-earnings ratio of approximately 16.8X based on 2023 net profit calculations[2] - Specific stocks to watch include 上大股份, 托普云农, and 六九一二, which are expected to perform well based on their financial metrics and market positioning[2][21][24]

Inflation Trends - In September, the overall CPI decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 0.4%, while the core CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1%, marking a three-month decline and reaching the lowest level since March 2021[1] - The core CPI's rapid decline is attributed to insufficient consumer spending, with industrial consumer goods prices being affected by low oil prices[1] - Food CPI increased by 0.8% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rise of 3.3%, driven by seasonal factors as fresh produce prices returned to normal[1] PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline deepened to -2.8%, a new low for the year, primarily due to weak investment demand amid ongoing real estate adjustments and local debt resolution efforts[1] - Coal and metal prices fell, with coal mining and black metal prices decreasing by 1.3% and 3.3% month-on-month, respectively[1] - International oil prices continued to decline, contributing to a significant year-on-year drop of 10.0% in oil and gas extraction prices[1] Consumer Behavior Insights - Core CPI's drop to a 43-month low reflects weak consumer demand, with government subsidies having limited impact on boosting consumption[1] - Despite various local measures to stimulate consumption, the effects have yet to materialize significantly, with consumer goods CPI falling by 0.2 percentage points to 0.5%[1] - Service CPI also declined by 0.3 percentage points to 0.2%, indicating a shift from rapid growth to stable growth in service consumption[1] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential turning point for CPI and PPI around mid-2025, driven by a combination of monetary and fiscal policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing growth and improving consumer demand[1] - The new monetary and fiscal policies emphasize debt resolution and structural optimization, with a focus on supporting liquidity and reducing debt costs for households and businesses[1] - Risks include the possibility of slower-than-expected recovery in consumer demand and investment[1]

Group 1 - The overall tone of the fiscal policy is positive, with a focus on debt resolution and real estate storage [5][6] - The government plans to increase the debt limit for replacing local government hidden debts significantly, indicating a potential scale exceeding market expectations of 2 trillion [6][7] - Policies to support the real estate sector include using special bonds for purchasing existing housing and allowing special bonds for land reserves, which may improve market expectations [6][17] Group 2 - The fiscal policy's emphasis on debt resolution, real estate, technology, and core assets may benefit related industries [14][15] - The government has initiated capital replenishment for major state-owned banks, which is expected to enhance their risk resistance and credit issuance capabilities [6][7] - The focus on supporting consumption, healthcare, education, and other livelihood sectors may lead to increased foreign investment in core assets such as pharmaceuticals and consumer goods [23][29] Group 3 - The report highlights that the A-share market may experience short, medium, and long-term boosts from the clear fiscal policy direction [14][15] - The short-term outlook suggests that the A-share market may stabilize and recover due to positive policy signals, alleviating previous investor concerns [14][15] - The long-term conditions for a bull market are improving, with fiscal policy likely to enhance profit growth and market fundamentals [14][15] Group 4 - The report indicates that the fiscal policy will likely lead to increased investment in emerging industries such as AI, semiconductor, and commercial aerospace [23][24] - Recent data shows a significant increase in fixed asset investment in the computer, communication, and other electronic sectors, maintaining a growth rate of 14.2% [28] - The commercial aerospace market is projected to grow by 23.3% year-on-year, indicating a robust development phase [28]

Policy Measures - The Ministry of Finance plans to expand the scope of special bonds to support various projects, including the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing[1] - A significant increase in the debt limit is proposed to replace local government hidden debts, marking the largest support measure for debt resolution in recent years[1] - Special government bonds will be issued to help state-owned commercial banks replenish their core tier one capital[2] Market Impact - The bond market is expected to experience reduced volatility following the announcement of these policies, aligning with market expectations[1] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, particularly in non-priority provinces, reflecting a shift in focus towards areas with weaker economic conditions[2] - Credit bond yields are anticipated to stabilize and potentially decline, with high-grade short-term bonds providing sufficient yield protection[2] Economic Outlook - The overall economic recovery is expected to continue, with the government maintaining its growth targets, indicating ongoing possibilities for counter-cyclical adjustments[2] - The net financing scale of perpetual bonds is projected to be lower than in previous years due to high repayment levels, although issuance may marginally increase[2] - Investors are advised to remain cautiously optimistic, as the potential for further policy measures exists[2]

44 下 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Historical data shows that after significant volume increases in A-shares, the probability of direct declines is low, with only 1 out of 12 instances resulting in a direct drop[1] - Among the 12 instances of large volume increases since 1992, 6 saw a pattern of decline followed by recovery, while 5 experienced an initial rise followed by a decline[1] - Current A-share trends suggest a potential for oscillation followed by an upward movement, supported by active policies and limited external risks[1] Group 2: Policy and Economic Factors - Policy and external events are the primary factors influencing A-share performance post-volume increase, with significant historical examples from 2007 and 2013 highlighting this impact[1] - Current economic policies are expected to remain positive, with anticipated fiscal measures and monetary easing likely to be implemented[1] - The real estate sector shows weak performance, with sales down 18% and investment down 22.5% year-to-date, indicating a need for continued monitoring[1] Group 3: Liquidity and Investment Flow - Financing has significantly rebounded, with net inflows exceeding 211.9 billion RMB from September 27 to October 9, including a record single-day inflow of 110 billion RMB[1] - Foreign capital inflows are expected to continue, driven by improved market conditions and a strong correlation with the FTSE China A50 index, which rose over 30% during the observation period[1] - New fund issuance has increased, with 28.6 billion shares of equity funds launched in September, reflecting a recovery in investor sentiment[1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that historically, the probability of a significant drop in A-shares after a large volume increase is low, primarily influenced by policies, external events, and fundamentals [1][12][18] - A review of A-share performance since 1992 shows that after large volume increases, there are three main market behaviors: direct decline, oscillation followed by decline, and oscillation followed by recovery, with 6 instances of oscillation followed by recovery and only 1 instance of direct decline [1][12][18] - Current A-share trends suggest a potential for oscillation followed by recovery, supported by positive policy directions and limited external risks [1][18] Group 2 - The report highlights that the economic recovery trend remains intact, with ongoing infrastructure projects and a rebound in real estate sales contributing to this outlook [2][21][24] - Liquidity conditions are expected to remain loose, with significant inflows into A-shares observed recently, indicating a positive sentiment in the market [2][24][28] - The report emphasizes that sectors such as technology growth, core assets, and undervalued state-owned enterprises may present investment opportunities in the short term [2][19][21]

Monetary Policy Insights - In September, the net purchase of government bonds was less than the reduction in MLF by CNY 291 billion, indicating a contraction in long-term base currency supply[1] - The central bank's operations in late September were neutral, with a net reduction of CNY 910 billion in long-term base currency supply due to a net purchase of only CNY 2000 billion in government bonds[1] - The expected reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 50 basis points in December aims to prevent a rapid decline in new credit[1] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central government is expected to issue CNY 1 trillion in regular government bonds by year-end, raising the deficit ratio to 3.8% for this year and projecting a deficit ratio of around 4.2% for 2025[1] - The expansion of the central government's general public budget deficit is prioritized over special bonds and project bonds, focusing on sustainable consumption-driven growth[1] Market and Economic Trends - The introduction of the Securities, Funds, and Insurance Companies Swap Facility (SFISF) with an initial quota of CNY 500 billion aims to enhance leverage for non-bank financial institutions, potentially increasing market risk exposure[1] - The average mortgage interest rate is expected to be adjusted flexibly, allowing for market-driven negotiations between borrowers and banks, which may help mitigate systemic financial risks in the real estate sector[1] Risk Factors - Risks include the possibility that monetary easing may not yield expected results and that fiscal expansion may fall short of projections[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The development of large models has initiated the AIGC era, with a clear trend towards multimodal development and rapid advancements in AI video generation. The focus has shifted from technology-driven to ecosystem-driven, with ongoing commercialization of AI applications [2]. - In the mobile internet landscape, mobile video and social media account for nearly 60% of user time, with mobile video usage continuing to grow. As of September 2023, the five major new media platforms (Douyin, Kuaishou, Weibo, Xiaohongshu, Bilibili) have a combined active user base of 1.088 billion, achieving an 88.9% penetration rate [2]. - The application of AIGC technology is enhancing quality, reducing costs, and increasing efficiency, leading to a thriving content industry. The barriers to content creation have significantly lowered, expanding the creator demographic and driving growth in internet advertising and live e-commerce [2]. - The AI foundational data service market in China reached 4.5 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 30% over the next five years. The internet advertising market in China saw revenues of 164.91 billion yuan and 186.49 billion yuan in Q1 and Q2 of 2024, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.8% and 10.9% [2]. - Recommended companies to watch include Tencent Holdings, Meituan-W, Kuaishou-W, and Bilibili-W, as well as marketing service firms like BlueFocus and content application companies such as Kunlun Wanwei, Visual China, Jiecheng Co., and Zhongwen Online [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Development of Large Models and AI Applications - The advancement of large models has opened the AIGC era, with a significant increase in the number and capabilities of models, providing a technical foundation for the explosion of AIGC applications [4]. - Multimodal models enhance cognitive abilities and interaction experiences, broadening the application scope of AI in complex tasks [8]. 2. AI Driving Content Enrichment and Efficiency - AIGC applications are primarily focused on text and image generation, with significant adaptations across various use cases [13]. - The cost of video production is significantly lower with AI involvement, with AI-generated short dramas already being implemented [62]. 3. AI and Algorithm Applications Enhancing Marketing Efficiency - AI is transforming the advertising and marketing landscape by automating processes and improving efficiency across the entire workflow [69]. - Companies like BlueFocus are leveraging AI to create interactive advertising, significantly increasing engagement rates compared to traditional methods [73]. 4. Market Growth and Future Projections - The AI foundational data service market is expected to grow from 4.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 17 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 30.4% [82]. - The demand for computing power is rapidly increasing, with projections indicating that global computing power will exceed 3 ZFlops by 2025 [86].