Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Tongfu Microelectronics (002156 SZ) [1] Core Views - Tongfu Microelectronics' Memory Phase II project has achieved significant progress, with the first equipment installed and a new cleanroom area of 8,000 square meters added, capable of producing 150,000 wafers per month [1] - The company's advanced packaging base project has commenced, focusing on multi-layer stacking, flip-chip, wafer-level, and panel-level packaging, with a total investment of 7 5 billion yuan [1] - The global memory market is expected to grow by 64% in 2024, driven by AI investments and supply adjustments, with NAND Flash and DRAM markets projected to grow by 70 6% and 58 1% respectively [1] - Tongfu Microelectronics is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 25 28 billion yuan in 2024, 29 23 billion yuan in 2025, and 34 56 billion yuan in 2026 [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 15 6% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit margins improving from 3 8% in 2024 to 4 7% in 2026 [4] - EPS is expected to increase from 0 63 yuan in 2024 to 1 06 yuan in 2026, with P/E ratios declining from 28 9x in 2024 to 17 2x in 2026 [4] - ROE is projected to improve significantly, from 7 0% in 2024 to 10 0% in 2026, reflecting stronger profitability and operational efficiency [4] Industry and Market Trends - The memory market is experiencing strong growth due to AI-driven demand, with NAND Flash and DRAM markets expected to reach 680 billion USD and 808 billion USD respectively in 2024 [1] - Smartphone applications are expected to consume 37% of NAND Flash capacity in 2024, while enterprise-level applications, particularly in AI and server upgrades, are driving demand for high-performance memory products [1] Technological Advancements - Tongfu Microelectronics has made significant progress in advanced packaging technologies, including 16-layer chip stacking and WB cavity shielding, with high yield rates [3] - The company is developing FCBGA chip packaging technology using glass substrates and glass interposers, targeting high-performance applications in photonic communication, consumer electronics, and AI [3] - Tongfu Microelectronics has also completed the development of the Easy3B module, which is entering small-scale production, offering improved thermal resistance and power consumption compared to traditional modules [3]

电力设备及新能源 行业周报 动力锂电池运输新规出台，帆石一项目招标落 地 投资要点 新能源汽车：交通运输部、国家铁路局等十部门联合印发《关于加快提升新能源 汽车动力锂电池运输服务和安全保障能力的若干措施》。亿纬锂能美国区域总部 正式启用。特斯拉第 1 亿颗 4680 电池正式下线。瑞浦兰钧正式发布商用车电池 系统"BIG BANK"，系统能量密度超 210Wh/kg，带来重卡电动化最新解决方 案。中创新航首次在欧洲亮相"至远"系列新产品："至远"轻卡电池系列产品 采用大电量电池系统，续航 600km，铁锂材料电池系统能量密度达 165Wh/kg, 三元 210Wh/kg，寿命高达 10 年；"至远"重卡电池系列支持 800 度电，满载 续航 530km，能量密度 167Wh/kg，寿命百万公里。因电动汽车需求放缓，大众 集团位于萨尔茨吉特工厂的第二条电池生产线计划被搁置。亿纬锂能推出第六期 限制性股票激励计划，拟向激励对象授予不超过 7065 万股限制性股票，业绩考 核要求为 2024 年、2025 年动力与储能电池合计出货量分别不低于 71GWh、 101GWh。国轩高科 G 刻电池目前已装车并开始批量交付 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next six months compared to the CSI 300 index [1][6]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the domestic shift towards local semiconductor equipment, particularly as Yangtze Memory Technologies accelerates its transition from American to domestic equipment [1]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with expectations of new orders exceeding 7.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing over 50% year-on-year growth [1]. - The company is actively expanding its product lines, including etching equipment, thin film deposition equipment, and inspection equipment, which are expected to drive robust growth [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Yangtze Memory Technologies is rapidly replacing American equipment with domestic alternatives, benefiting companies like the report's subject [1]. - The company reported a significant increase in etching equipment revenue, reaching 2.698 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 56.68% [1]. - The company anticipates a total of 11 to 13 billion yuan in new orders for 2024, with a projected shipment increase of over 200% year-on-year [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are set at 8.368 billion, 11.163 billion, and 14.592 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 33.6%, 33.4%, and 30.7% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.810 billion, 2.396 billion, and 3.235 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 1.4%, 32.4%, and 35.0% [2]. - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable, around 46% over the forecast period [2]. Market Position and Product Development - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic etching equipment market, with a significant increase in market share and technological advancements [1]. - The company is focusing on high-aspect-ratio etching technologies and has made substantial progress in developing ultra-low temperature etching technologies [1]. - New product lines, including the Primo TwinStar® and LPCVD equipment, have successfully entered customer validation stages, indicating strong market demand [2].

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|----------------------------------------| | 2024 \n投资要点 | 年 09 月 22 日 \n上大股份（ 301522.SZ ） | | 公司研究●证券研究报告 \n新股覆盖研究 | | | 下周三（ 9 月 25 日）有一家创业板上市公司"上大股份"询价。 | 交易数据 | | | | 上大股份（ 301522 ）：公司主要从事高温及高性能合金、高品质特种不锈钢等特种 | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 合金产品的研发、生产和销售。公司 2021-2023 年分别实现营业 ...

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 09 月 22 日 \n情绪略有改善但疲态仍显，新股板块休整可能尚在途 | 策略类●证券研究报告 \n新股专题 | | 投资要点 | 李蕙 | | 新股周观点：中秋节后新股次新二级交投意愿略有好转，但改善幅度极为有限。考 | 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号： S0910519100001 | | 虑到新股自身周期力量仍在蓄势，而三季度经济数据、业绩数据等不确定性风险尚 | lihui1@huajinsc.cn | | 在发酵中，叠加小长假的可能影响，短期暂时还是建议适度谨慎，重点标的做好跟 | | | 踪观察。 | 相关报告 低迷情绪预计正在向首日交投传导，新股休 | | （ 1 ）上周新股二级市场表现略微改善；假设以 2023 年以来上市的新股次新板块 | 整周期或仍在逐步演进 - 华金证券 ...

国庆假期风险有限，可持股过节 定期报告 投资要点 历史上国庆节后 A 股上涨概率较大，主要受政策和外部事件、海内外经济数据、 美元指数等影响。（1）国庆假期后 A 股短期上涨概率较高：2010 年以来的 14 年 国庆假期后 5 个交易日内上证综指上涨 10 次。（2）国庆假期后 A 股短期表现主 要受政策和外部事件、海内外经济数据、美元指数等影响。一是政策和外部事件是 影响节后走势的核心因素：如 2010 年预期美国 QE2、2015 年调降首付比例、2019 年和 2021 年中美经贸磋商，节后上证综指上涨；而 2014 年预期美国退出 QE3、 2018 年中美贸易摩擦、2022 年美联储加息、2023 年巴以冲突，节后上证综指下 跌。二是假期期间公布的海外经济数据和国内假期消费数据也对节后 A 股表现有明 显影响。三是假期期间美元指数的表现对节后 A 股涨跌也有一定影响：2010 以来 节日期间美元指数涨跌幅与节后 5 个交易日内上证综指涨跌幅相关系数为-0.52。 今年国庆假期期间风险可能有限，可持股过节。（1）外部事件和政策可能偏积极， 风险有限。一是今年假期期间外部风险事件发生的概率可能较低：首 ...

2024 年 09 月 21 日 策略类●证券研究报告 国庆假期风险有限，可持股过节 定期报告 投资要点 历史上国庆节后 A 股上涨概率较大，主要受政策和外部事件、海内外经济数据、 美元指数等影响。（1）国庆假期后 A 股短期上涨概率较高：2010 年以来的 14 年 国庆假期后 5 个交易日内上证综指上涨 10 次。（2）国庆假期后 A 股短期表现主 要受政策和外部事件、海内外经济数据、美元指数等影响。一是政策和外部事件是 影响节后走势的核心因素：如 2010 年预期美国 QE2、2015 年调降首付比例、2019 年和 2021 年中美经贸磋商，节后上证综指上涨；而 2014 年预期美国退出 QE3、 2018 年中美贸易摩擦、2022 年美联储加息、2023 年巴以冲突，节后上证综指下 跌。二是假期期间公布的海外经济数据和国内假期消费数据也对节后 A 股表现有明 显影响。三是假期期间美元指数的表现对节后 A 股涨跌也有一定影响：2010 以来 节日期间美元指数涨跌幅与节后 5 个交易日内上证综指涨跌幅相关系数为-0.52。 今年国庆假期期间风险可能有限，可持股过节。（1）外部事件和政策可能偏积极， 风险 ...

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------|----------------------------------------| | 2024 \n投资要点 | 年 09 月 21 日 \n托普云农（ 301556.SZ ） | | 公司研究●证券研究报告 \n新股覆盖研究 | | | 下周四（ 9 月 26 日）有一家创业板上市公司"托普云农"询价。 | 交易数据 | | | | 托普云农（ 301556 ）：公司主要为农业领域相关的政府部门、企事业单位、科研院 | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 校等提供智慧农业服务及相关智能硬件设备。公司 2021-2023 年分别实现营业收 | | 流通市值（百万元） | | 入 | 3.32 亿元/3.75 亿元/4.59 亿元， YOY 依次为 25.10%/ ...

44 下 个 = | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------| | 2024 年 09 月 19 日 \n食品饮料 \n中秋出行良好，消费数据分化 \n投资要点 | 投资评级 | | 行业研究●证券研究报告 \n行业周报 \n同步大市-A维持 | | | 行情回顾：上周食品饮料（申万）行业下跌 5.54% ，在 31 个子行业中排名第 31 | 首选股票 | | | 评级 | | 位，跑输上证综指 3.31pct ，跑输创业板指 5.35pct 。二级（申万）子板块对比， | 600519.SH ...