Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall economic situation shows that China is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The growth rate of the real - sector's liabilities is expected to decline, and the government's liability growth rate is also trending down. The economic growth rate needs further observation, and the risk preference has increased recently, with the stock - bond ratio favoring stocks [1][2][6]. - It is recommended to use the equity growth style instead of the bond position this week, suggesting an allocation of 60% in the Shanghai Composite 50 Index and 40% in the CSI 1000 Index. In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. A + H and A - share dividend portfolios are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [8][9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In September 2025, the real - sector's liability growth rate was 8.9%, expected to remain stable around 8.9% in October and then decline to about 8.5% by the end of the year. The government's liability growth rate was 14.5% in September, expected to drop to around 14.0% in October and 13.0% by the end of the year. The central bank's policies reinforce the judgment of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio [1][2]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the money market was generally stable. The one - year Treasury yield rose to 1.47% at the weekend, with an estimated lower limit of about 1.3%. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasuries was stable at 38 basis points. The future yield ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year Treasuries are estimated to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in September continued to weaken compared to August. The full - year nominal economic growth target for 2025 is around 4.9%, and it remains to be seen whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3]. 2. Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Overall Outlook for 2025**: China's asset prices are mainly affected by changes in the national balance sheet. The real GDP growth rate on the asset side is expected to fluctuate between 4 - 5%, and the liability growth rate of the real sector is expected to decline. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness generally favors bonds, but recently, due to the increase in risk preference, it has shifted towards stocks [21][6]. - **Recent Market Performance**: Last week, the money market was stable, risk preference increased significantly over the weekend, resulting in rising stocks and falling bonds. The equity style shifted to growth - oriented, and the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favored stocks. The ten - year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.85%, and the one - year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 1.47% [6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: This week, it is recommended to use the equity growth style instead of the bond position, suggesting an allocation of 60% in the Shanghai Composite 50 Index and 40% in the CSI 1000 Index [8]. 3. Industry Recommendations 3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.7%, and the ChiNext Index rose 8.1%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, electronics, power equipment, machinery, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest increases, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, food and beverage, and beauty care had the largest declines [30]. 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of October 24, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, power equipment, machinery, computer, and communication, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, textile and apparel, social services, and steel. The trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased compared to last week [33][34]. 3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, electronics, power equipment, machinery, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, food and beverage, beauty care, and others had the smallest increases. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banking, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, and others [38][39]. 3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: There were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI declined from 50.9 in September to 50.8, and most major economies' PMIs decreased. The CCFI index rose by 2.02% in the latest week, and port cargo throughput increased. South Korea's export growth rate decreased in October, while Vietnam's increased [43]. - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price decreased in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic increased, the capacity utilization rate of ten industries declined from September to October, automobile sales were at a relatively high level, and new - home sales were at a historical low [43]. 3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the third week of October (October 20 - 24), some active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of October 24, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 4.2 trillion yuan, slightly higher than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [60]. 3.6 Industry Recommendations - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio consists of 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio consists of 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation industries [64].

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral market sentiment with a score of 56, suggesting a balanced outlook for investors [5][9] - Key investment themes identified include energy storage, eSIM technology, and nuclear fusion, each showing significant growth potential [5] Energy Storage - The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for an installed capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, attracting direct investments of 250 billion yuan, with project IRR expected to exceed 8% due to supportive policies [5] - Overseas orders for energy storage are projected to surge by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh, indicating a potential shift in supply-demand dynamics [5] - Related companies include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power (300274) [5] eSIM Technology - China Unicom launched its eSIM service on October 13, with over 60,000 reservations, indicating strong market interest [5] - The reactivation of eSIM services by major telecom operators is expected to accelerate commercial adoption [5] - Related companies include Eastcompeace Technology (002017) and Unisoc (002049) [5] Nuclear Fusion - The CRAFT project achieved a significant breakthrough with the successful testing of a key component, demonstrating a steady thermal load capacity of 20 MW/m² [5] - This development marks a milestone in the design of the world's largest and highest thermal load filter prototype [5] - Related companies include Chuangyuan New Materials (002171) and Hongxun Technology (603015) [5] Market Trends - The report highlights that when the market sentiment score is below or near 50, it tends to provide support for the market, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [9] - Recent trends show a gradual market recovery supported by improved sentiment and policy backing [9] Capital Flow - The report lists the top ten stocks with significant net inflows, including Shenghong Technology (300476) and Demingli (001309), indicating strong investor interest [10] - Conversely, stocks like ZTE Corporation (000063) and BYD (002594) experienced notable net outflows, reflecting investor caution [12]

Economic Goals - No specific economic growth targets set for the next five years, aiming for a per capita GDP of around $22,000 by 2035, with an annual growth rate of approximately 4.5% over the next decade[2][19] - Emphasis on completing this year's economic goals firmly[2][19] Development Focus - High-quality development prioritized, with the removal of "new achievements in economic development" from main objectives[3][19] - Shift from "Digital China" to "Aerospace Power," highlighting opportunities in the aerospace sector[3][19] Technological Independence - Focus on "self-reliance in technology," indicating a shift towards a new round of technological revolution, emphasizing core technology breakthroughs and integration of innovation[4][20] - This approach supports domestic substitution and self-control, addressing complex external trade situations[4][20] Consumer and Living Standards - First-time inclusion of "improving people's quality of life" as a primary goal, indicating a shift towards "investment in people" rather than infrastructure[5][20] - Strong emphasis on boosting consumption and exploring new consumption patterns and scenarios[5][20] National Security and Defense - Increased focus on national security and modernization of defense, with mentions of complex geopolitical risks and the need for military readiness[6][10][20] - New phrasing regarding "struggling, preparing, and building" reflects a proactive stance on defense[10][20] Real Estate Development - Real estate mentioned only once, framed within high-quality development, focusing on risk mitigation and improving housing supply systems[11][20] New Energy Systems - Transition from "green development" to "green transformation," with attention to energy consumption targets per unit of GDP and a diversified energy supply system[12][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the sensor industry, particularly focusing on the opportunities in domestic replacements for sensors in humanoid robots [2]. Core Insights - The sensor industry is crucial for the development of AI and robotics, serving as the bridge between the physical and virtual worlds. The global sensor market is projected to reach approximately $226.9 billion in 2023, with a growth rate of about 8% annually. In China, the sensor market is expected to grow at a rate of 15%, reaching approximately 554.7 billion yuan by 2026 [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of environmental perception sensors in robotics, highlighting their higher profit margins compared to other hardware components. The gross profit margin for sensor manufacturers typically ranges from 30% to 50%, significantly higher than the 20% to 30% margins for standard components [3][4]. - The report identifies a significant opportunity for domestic manufacturers to capture market share from foreign competitors, particularly in the emerging robotics sector, where there is potential for rapid advancement and "leapfrog" opportunities [4][5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Sensor Market Overview - Sensors are essential for humanoid robots, acting as their sensory organs and enabling interaction with the physical world. The sensor market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing demand in various sectors, including automotive, industrial automation, and healthcare [9][17]. - The Chinese sensor market is projected to grow from 364.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 554.7 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% [17][22]. Section 2: Focus on Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report lists several companies in the sensor industry, including: - **Kaiter Co. (920978.BJ)**: Rated "Buy" with a projected EPS of 1.09 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 35.23 [6]. - Other companies mentioned, such as Amperelong and Obsidian, are not rated but have provided EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 [6][7]. Section 3: 3D Vision and Sensor Technology - The report highlights the growing importance of 3D vision technology in robotics, with the global 3D vision market expected to grow from $5 billion in 2019 to $15 billion by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 20% [36]. - Various companies are developing advanced 3D vision solutions, with a focus on depth accuracy, measurement range, and frame rate, which are critical for humanoid robots [44][46]. Section 4: Pressure Sensors and Domestic Replacement Opportunities - The report notes that the pressure sensor market is predominantly controlled by foreign brands, presenting a substantial opportunity for domestic manufacturers to capture market share. The global MEMS pressure sensor market is currently led by Bosch, with a market share of 33% [62][63]. - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic companies to fill the gap in the market, particularly in automotive applications where pressure sensors are essential [62][66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the consumer electronics industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [8]. Core Insights - The iPhone 17 series has exceeded sales expectations, with a 14% increase in sales in China and the US compared to the iPhone 16 series during the same period [4][5]. - The Chinese market has shown strong demand, particularly for the base model of the iPhone 17, which has nearly doubled its sales compared to the previous generation due to its high cost-performance ratio [4]. - The production and assembly of the iPhone 17 series are primarily centered in China (84%) and India (14%), with Chinese suppliers dominating the supply chain [5][6]. - Future product launches, including a foldable phone and AI glasses, are expected to drive a new cycle of growth for Apple and its supply chain partners [8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - iPhone 17 series sales in the first 10 days post-launch have increased by 14% compared to the iPhone 16 series, with significant contributions from both the Chinese and US markets [4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - China remains the dominant player in the iPhone supply chain, with 92 out of 187 core suppliers listed by Apple being Chinese companies, highlighting the importance of the Chinese supply chain in high-value segments [5][6]. Future Outlook - Apple is anticipated to launch a new foldable phone in 2026, featuring advanced technology and design, which is expected to initiate a new growth cycle for the company and its supply chain [8]. - The introduction of AI glasses by Apple is also projected for late 2026, further expanding its product ecosystem and market opportunities [8]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests continuous monitoring of key companies such as Luxshare Precision, Industrial Fulian, and others involved in manufacturing and assembly for potential investment opportunities [9].

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral market sentiment with a score of 56, suggesting a balanced outlook for investors [5][9]. - Key investment themes identified include energy storage, eSIM technology, and nuclear fusion, each showing significant growth potential [5]. Energy Storage - The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for an installed capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, attracting direct investments of 250 billion yuan, with project IRR expected to exceed 8% due to supportive policies [5]. - Overseas orders for energy storage are projected to surge by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [5]. - Relevant companies include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power (300274) [5]. eSIM Technology - China Unicom launched its eSIM service on October 13, with over 60,000 reservations, indicating strong market interest [5]. - The reactivation of eSIM services by major telecom operators is expected to accelerate commercial adoption [5]. - Key players in this sector include Eastcompeace (002017) and Unisoc (002049) [5]. Nuclear Fusion - The CRAFT project achieved a significant milestone with the successful testing of a key component, demonstrating a steady thermal load capacity of 20 MW/m² [5]. - This development marks a major advancement in China's nuclear fusion technology, with implications for future energy solutions [5]. - Companies involved in this field include Chuangyuan New Materials (002171) and Hongxun Technology (603015) [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.238 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 19% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 266 million yuan, up 2% year-on-year [5]. - The company's mosquito repellent products achieved a significant revenue increase of 49% in Q3 2025, driven by heightened demand due to dengue fever incidents [9]. - Despite stable revenue growth, increased sales and management expenses have pressured profit margins, leading to a net profit margin decrease of 5 percentage points to 22.93% in Q3 2025 [7]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q3 2025, total revenue reached 342 million yuan, a 17% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 3% to 79 million yuan [5][7]. - The company's gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 58.96%, but the sales expense ratio increased by 6 percentage points to 29.09% due to heightened sales resource investment and rising e-commerce channel costs [7]. Product Performance - The mosquito repellent segment saw a revenue increase to 132 million yuan in Q3 2025, with sales volume rising by 32% to approximately 21.55 million units [9]. - Conversely, revenue from baby care products decreased by 3% to 146 million yuan, and essential oil products saw a 7% decline in revenue to 43 million yuan [9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has established a strong market presence in the home and personal care sector, with significant market shares in its three core product lines: mosquito repellent, baby care, and essential oils [10]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.77, 0.93, and 1.16 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 35, 29, and 23 times [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Zijin Mining [10] Core Views - The strong growth in gold business is primarily driven by rising gold prices, while copper production has been affected by the Kamoa Copper Mine [2][9] - The company has achieved significant revenue and profit growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 864.89 billion yuan, up 8.14% year-on-year, and net profit of 145.72 billion yuan, up 57.14% year-on-year [1][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Zijin Mining reported operating revenue of 864.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.14%, and a net profit of 145.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.14% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2542.00 billion yuan, up 10.33% year-on-year, and a net profit of 378.64 billion yuan, up 55.45% year-on-year [1] Mineral Production - In Q3 2025, the company produced 263,100 tons of copper, a decrease of 2.89% year-on-year, while gold production reached 23.76 tons, an increase of 25.98% year-on-year [2] - The total revenue from copper business was 141.69 billion yuan, up 19.12% year-on-year, with a total gross profit of 85.24 billion yuan, reflecting a gross profit margin of 60.16% [3] Gold Business - The gold business generated total revenue of 169.34 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a significant increase of 81.81% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 107.70 billion yuan, up 104.46% year-on-year [4][8] - The company successfully completed the IPO of its subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, raising 287 billion HKD, marking it as the largest IPO in the global gold mining industry [9] Profit Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts upward due to rising gold and copper prices, predicting revenues of 3526.83 billion yuan, 3879.77 billion yuan, and 4066.42 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 534.41 billion yuan, 632.85 billion yuan, and 710.34 billion yuan [10][12]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is at a high level, with a score of 80, categorizing it as "overheated" [5][8] - The report highlights three key investment themes: energy storage, eSIM technology, and nuclear fusion, each showing significant growth potential [5] Energy Storage - The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" in China aims for an installed capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, attracting direct investments of 250 billion yuan, with policies enhancing project IRR to over 8% [5] - Overseas orders for energy storage are expected to surge by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [5] - Key companies in this sector include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power (300274) [5] eSIM Technology - China Unicom launched its eSIM service on October 13, with over 60,000 reservations, indicating strong market interest [5] - The revival of eSIM services by the three major telecom operators in China is expected to accelerate commercial adoption [5] - Relevant companies include Eastcompeace Technology (002017) and Unisoc (002049) [5] Nuclear Fusion - The CRAFT project in China achieved a significant breakthrough with the successful testing of a key component, demonstrating a steady thermal load capacity of 20 MW/m² [5] - This development marks a milestone in the creation of the largest and highest thermal load filter prototype designed independently in China [5] - Companies involved in this field include Chuangyuan New Materials (002171) and Hongxun Technology (603015) [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [9] Core Views - The economic landscape continues to show resilience, with GDP growth in the first three quarters reaching 101.50 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Despite a marginal decline in growth rate to 4.8% in Q3, the overall economic stability is supported by new productive forces and effective macro policies [4] - Retail sales growth has slowed down, with total retail sales from January to September at 36.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. In September alone, retail sales were 4.20 trillion yuan, growing by only 3.0% [5] - The beverage sector is performing strongly, with a focus on new consumption opportunities driven by retail channel transformations. Key companies to watch include Huashang Auntie, Tea Baidao, and others [6] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - GDP growth has shown resilience despite external challenges, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% in the first three quarters [4] - The Q3 GDP growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points, attributed to external tariff policy changes and transitional pains in various industries [4] Retail Sales Performance - Total retail sales for the first nine months reached 36.59 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5% year-on-year. September's retail sales were 4.20 trillion yuan, reflecting a slowdown to 3.0% growth [5] - The decline in growth is linked to the reduced impact of the "old-for-new" policy and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [5] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies with strong recovery expectations in the consumer goods sector, including Weilai Delicious, Ximai Foods, and Youyou Foods [6] - The beverage sector is noted for its robust performance, with a focus on companies like Dongpeng Beverage and others, as well as the impact of new birth policies on dairy demand, highlighting companies such as Yili and Mengniu [6]