—行业和风格因子跟踪报告 投资要点 ▌ 行业因子最新变动情况 行业因子上周最大特征是财报质量因子继续集体出现超 额，有望持续到至少四月中旬。财报质量细分因子聚合方 式来看市值加权计算方法优于等权法，说明一季报仍以行 业龙头为风向标，风格上可能也在逐步重回大盘。基于财 报质量因子行业上继续关注食品饮料、医药、有色金属、 电力，重视交运和大金融的机会。 2025 年 04 月 06 日 通信行业如期反弹，质量因子指向避险 整体看行业轮动因子指向防御：主力资金因子多头继续向 TMT 之外，长端景气选择非银、石油石化、通信、化工； 短期分析师预期指向轻工、通信、食品饮料、化工。下周 叠加关税超预期等情境，本期选择行业更偏向防御和内 需。 ▌ 定量行业推荐 基于权重分配，我们推荐内资主力资金因子为代表的资金流 （10%）、细分因子底部开始走强的长端景气（30%）、短端 预期（30%）、财报质量因子（30%）。 复合因子本周挑选通信、有色、石油石化、交运、食品饮 料、电公、农林牧渔。 ▌风格因子最新变动情况 本周风格因子均无多头收益，相对表现最好的是质量盈利和 质量安全，市场继续向一季报预期和防御板块定价。 成长、高波当 ...

2025 年 04 月 06 日 Optimus 下一代执行器即将发布，自主车企 3 月 销量表现亮眼 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 汽车(申万) -4.2 14.7 24.3 沪深 300 -2.4 2.5 8.2 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《汽车行业周报：丝杠产能紧缺 之际，强调磨床设备投资机会》 2025-03-30 2、《汽车行业周报：Tesla 机器人 生产节奏进一步明确，多家车企密 集宣布 L3 级自动驾驶量产计划》 2025-03-23 3、《汽车行业周报：智元灵犀 X2 与 GO-1 大模型亮相，FigureBotQ 推 动机器人商业落地》2025-03-16 ▌下一代执行器即将发布，重点关注 T 链机器人标 的 事件：马斯克发推展示 Optimus 行走视频，并配文"精确的 执行器加速自动化"。 Optimus 强化学习效果显著，行走步态更为精细。Optimus 在视频行走过程 ...

2025 年 04 月 06 日 营收稳步增长，产品结构持续优化 —会稽山（601579.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 2025 年 4 月 1 日，会稽山发布 2024 年年度报告,2024 年公司 营收 16.31 亿元（同增 16%），归母净利润 1.96 亿元（同增 18%），扣非归母净利润 1.78 亿元（同增 15%），其中 2024Q4 营收 5.70 亿元（同增 20%），归母净利润 0.84 亿元 （同增 32%），扣非归母净利润 0.78 亿元（同增 35%）。 投资要点 ▌毛利率大幅提升，盈利能力持续提升 2024 年毛利率同增 5pct 至 52.08%，主要系中高档黄酒营收 增速加快，产品结构优化所致，销售/管理费用率分别同比 +6pct/-2pct 至 20.33%/8.48%，主要系公司持续加大终端营 销投入，推进品牌形象 焕 新 ， 净利率同增 0.2pct 至 12.10%，盈利能力同比提升。 ▌发布产品提价公告，产品结构持续优化 2024 年中高档黄酒营收 10.65 亿元（同增 31%），其中销量 5.33 万吨（同增 7%），吨价 2.00 万元/吨（同增 ...

2025 年 04 月 03 日 禾赛科技（HSAI.O）：激光雷达龙头加速业绩兑 现，多元布局打开成长空间 告 推荐(维持) 事件 分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoyc@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：谢孟津 S1050123110012 xiemj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机(申万) | -7.2 | 16.1 | 26.8 | | 沪深 300 | -0.7 | 2.3 | 8.2 | 市场表现 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 (%) 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《计算机行业点评报告：美团-W （3690.HK）：核心业务稳健增长， AI 战略布局持续深化》2025-03-28 2、《计算机行业周报：英伟达推出 首 款 开 源 人 形 机 器 人 模 型 IsaacGR00TN1，OpenAI 发布音频模 型》2025-03-27 3、《计算机行业点评报告：地平线 机器人（9660.HK）：2024 年业绩创 纪录，软硬 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Qingdao Beer [1][8] Core Views - The company's revenue slightly declined year-on-year due to environmental impacts, with total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 at 32.138 billion and 4.345 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5% and +2% [2] - The company has shown significant cost optimization effects, leading to a slight increase in gross margin, with gross margin and net margin for 2024 at 40% and 14%, respectively, both up by 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and channel diversification, with a continued push for high-end and ultra-high-end products, and a notable increase in online sales [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 3.179 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was -645 million yuan, showing a slight increase in losses [2] - Operating net cash flow for 2024 was 5.155 billion yuan, a significant increase of 86% year-on-year, with sales receipts at 38.057 billion yuan, up 0.5% [2] - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of 2024 were 8.313 billion yuan, an increase of 2.868 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] Product and Market Strategy - Overall beer sales volume and price per ton in 2024 decreased by 5.9% and increased by 0.4%, respectively, with the main brand's sales volume down by 4.8% [3] - The company is advancing its "1+1+1+2+N" product mix strategy, with mid-to-high-end product sales at 3.15 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, but accounting for 73% of the main brand's sales [3] - The company has launched new products to meet diverse consumer needs, including the "A series of Aogute, Nikashi White Beer, and non-alcoholic beer series" [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of 3.55, 3.84, and 4.11 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 20, and 19 times [8] - Revenue growth rates are projected at -5.3% for 2024, followed by 4.3%, 3.2%, and 2.9% for the subsequent years [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a stable growth in performance, with a full production and sales of 110,000 tons of differentiated polyester industrial yarn in Vietnam, contributing to profit growth in 2024 [4]. - The company reported a total revenue of 5.901 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 411 million yuan, up 17.58% year-on-year [3][10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its international production capacity and optimizing its global supply chain, with ongoing projects in Vietnam [6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s polyester industrial filament production reached 311,600 tons, an increase of 8.24% year-on-year, while sales were 246,000 tons, up 7.74% year-on-year [4]. - The financial expense ratio increased due to a decrease in exchange gains and interest income, with the sales/management/financial/R&D expense ratios showing slight changes [5]. - The company forecasts net profits of 443 million yuan, 482 million yuan, and 518 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.7, 11.6, and 10.8 [8][10]. Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The first phase of the 110,000-ton polyester industrial filament project in Vietnam has been fully operational, and the company is accelerating the development of a 18,000-ton high-performance tire cord project [6]. - The company aims to establish a global R&D center to enhance its competitive edge and maintain high-quality, high-performance differentiated products [7]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5.901 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.696 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.1% [10]. - The net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 7.4% from 2024 to 2027, reflecting a strong outlook for profitability [10].

2025 年 04 月 04 日 阿里深夜开源 Qwen2.5-Omni， DeepSeek-V3 上 线新版本 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoyc@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 市场表现 40 60 (%) 计算机 沪深300 表现 1M 3M 12M 计算机(申万) -8.8 16.1 26.8 沪深 300 -0.6 2.3 8.2 -40 -20 0 20 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《计算机行业点评报告：文远知 行（WRD.O）：收入承压与商业化突 破并行，自动驾驶长赛道静待拐 点》2025-04-04 2、《计算机行业点评报告：禾赛科 技（HSAI.O）：激光雷达龙头加速 业绩兑现，多元布局打开成长空 间》2025-04-04 3、《计算机行业点评报告：英伟达 [NVDA.O]：Blackwell 架构擎动业绩 新高，AI 算力领航产业变革》2025- 04-04 ▌ 算力： 算 力 租 赁 价 格 平 稳 ， 阿 里 深 夜 开 源 Qwen2.5-Omni 3 月 27 日凌晨，阿里通义千问团队发布 Qwen2.5-Om ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9] Core Views - The company achieved a strong performance in 2024, with total revenue and net profit reaching 174.14 billion and 86.23 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 16% and 15% [5] - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, maintaining high cash dividends, with a total payout of 64.67 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, with expected EPS of 75.23 yuan [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company’s stock price is currently at 1568.88 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 1970.8 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue and net profit were 51.02 billion and 25.40 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 13% and 16% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 91.93% and 52.27%, with slight decreases compared to the previous year [5] Product Performance - Revenue from Moutai liquor and other series reached 145.93 billion and 24.68 billion yuan in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 15% and 20% [6] - The sales volume of Moutai liquor increased by 10%, while the average price rose by 5% [6] Channel Performance - Revenue from wholesale and direct sales channels was 95.77 billion and 74.84 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 20% and 11% [7] - International revenue surpassed 5 billion yuan for the first time, indicating successful internationalization efforts [8] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 9.1% for 2025, with net profit expected to grow by 9.6% [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Qingdao Beer [1][8] Core Views - The company's revenue slightly declined year-on-year due to environmental impacts, with total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 at 32.138 billion and 4.345 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5% and +2% [2] - The company has shown significant cost optimization effects, leading to a slight increase in gross margin, with gross and net profit margins for 2024 at 40% and 14%, respectively, both up by 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company continues to optimize its product structure and diversify its channels, with a focus on high-end and ultra-high-end products, which accounted for 73% of the main brand's sales in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 3.179 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was -645 million yuan, indicating a slight increase in losses [2] - Operating net cash flow for 2024 was significantly improved, reaching 5.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86% [2] - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of 2024 were 8.313 billion yuan, an increase of 2.868 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] Product and Market Strategy - Overall beer sales volume and price per ton in 2024 decreased by 5.9% and increased by 0.4%, respectively [3] - The company launched new products such as the "A Series" and "Nika Xi White Beer" to meet diverse consumer needs [3] - The sales ratio of ready-to-drink and non-ready-to-drink markets was 41.2% and 58.8%, respectively, with online product sales increasing by 21% [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of 3.55, 3.84, and 4.11 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 20, and 19 times [8] - Revenue growth rates are projected at -5.3% for 2024, followed by 4.3%, 3.2%, and 2.9% for the subsequent years [10]

2025 年 04 月 05 日 重回缩表——资产配置周报（2025-4-5） —固定收益周报 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 分析师：黄海澜 S1050523050002 S1050524060001 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 2 月实体部门负债增 速录得 8.4%，前值 8.5%，略低于我们之前的预期。预计 3 月 实体部门负债增速小幅反弹至 8.6%附近，3 月底 4 月初形成 年内高点，随后趋于下行，重回缩表。金融部门方面，上周 资金面边际上有所松弛。2025 年政府工作报告中明确指出： "使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水 平预期目标相匹配"，这表明，稳定宏观杠杆率的大方向没 有任何动摇，中国仍然处于边际缩表过程之中，大规模化债 进一步降低了地方政府融资成本、以及发生大规模违约和流 动性风险的概率，有利于提升全社会的预期。按照两会公布 的财政计划，我们预计年底实体部门负债增速将下降至 8%附 近。 财政政策。上周合计政府债（包括国债和地方债）净增加 4955 亿元（高于计划的净增加 1262 亿元），按计划本周政 府债净减少 4357 亿元，2025 年 2 月 ...