券 研 告 行 研 究 2024 年 12 月 30 日 究 报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [13] Core Views - Embodied intelligence has broad prospects, with the market size expected to reach $9.4 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 15.2% [11][12] - Leading automakers like BYD and Li Auto are intensifying their research and development in embodied intelligence, with significant investments and strategic hires [11] - The screw is identified as the most promising segment in the embodied intelligence industry chain, with the dexterous hand showing the most marginal changes [1] Industry Overview - The embodied intelligence market was valued at $3.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to $9.4 billion by 2030 [11] - Huawei predicts that by 2030, there will be a significant number of general-purpose service and household robots, with shipments of 30-50 million units [12] - BYD has developed various robotic products, including industrial robots, collaborative robots, and humanoid robots, and has partnered with companies like Ubtech [11] Key Companies and Recommendations - **Automakers**: Focus on companies with deep collaborations with Huawei, such as Seres and Jianghuai Automobile [13] - **Auto Parts**: The domestic auto parts sector is entering a golden period of development, with opportunities in lightweighting, interior and exterior parts, and smart vehicles [13] - **Lightweighting**: Companies like Wencan Group, Meilixin, and IKD are expected to benefit from the increasing adoption of integrated die-casting [13] - **Interior and Exterior Parts**: Companies such as Xinquan, Daimei, and Mopar are recommended [13] - **Smart Vehicles**: Companies like China Automotive Engineering Research Institute, Zhongqi, and Huayang Group are highlighted for their focus on intelligent driving technologies [13] - **Humanoid Robots**: Companies like Shuanglin, Shuanghuan, and Jingfei are recommended for their dual focus on automotive and robotics [13] - **Beijing Stock Exchange**: Companies like Junchuang, Kaite, and Yishi Precision are suggested for attention [13] Market Performance - The automotive sector (Shenwan) has shown strong performance, with a 3.9% increase over 1 month, 6.1% over 3 months, and 18.8% over 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to SMIC (688981 SH) for the first time [17] Core Views - SMIC is a leader in China's integrated circuit manufacturing industry and one of the world's leading pure-play foundries, ranking 4th globally and 1st in China by 2023 sales [17] - The company benefits from its platform-based ecosystem model, providing one-stop services including design services, IP support, and photomask manufacturing [17] - Smartization and high-speed computing performance demands are key market drivers, with new smart terminal product upgrades catalyzing replacement cycles [17] - In Q3 2023, SMIC achieved record quarterly revenue of $2 17 billion, up 14% QoQ, with capacity utilization reaching 90 4% and gross margin improving to 20 5% [17] Financial Performance - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 57 477 billion yuan in 2024 to 74 245 billion yuan in 2026, with EPS increasing from 0 49 yuan to 0 81 yuan [17][19] - Net profit attributable to parent company is projected to rise from 3 905 billion yuan in 2024 to 6 437 billion yuan in 2026 [6][17] - Revenue growth rates are estimated at 27% for 2024, 14 1% for 2025, and 13 2% for 2026 [20] - Net profit growth rates are forecasted at -19% for 2024, 34 5% for 2025, and 22 5% for 2026 [21] Market Position - SMIC operates 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry services globally [17] - The company added 21k 12-inch wafer monthly capacity in Q3 2023, optimizing product structure and increasing average selling prices [17] - SMIC's current market capitalization stands at 777 7 billion yuan with a share price of 97 51 yuan as of December 27, 2024 [17] Valuation Metrics - The stock trades at 199x, 148x, and 121x projected 2024-2026 earnings respectively [17] - Price-to-sales ratios are estimated at 13 5x for 2024, 11 9x for 2025, and 10 5x for 2026 [23] - Price-to-book ratios are forecasted at 5 3x for 2024, 5 2x for 2025, and 5 0x for 2026 [23] Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is experiencing explosive growth driven by smart terminal upgrades and high-performance computing demands [17] - Replacement cycles for smartphones, PCs, wearables, and consumer electronics are showing gradual growth momentum [17]

证 业 究 报 究 预计将达到 1.5 万亿 元，到 2035 年有望达到 3.5 万亿 元，市场空间广阔，低空经济有望迎来快速发展期。 行 2024 年 12 月 29 日 告 证券研究报告 ▌ 投资建议 ▌ 风险提示 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|----------|--------------------|-------|-------|-------|---------------------------------------------|-------|-------|----------| | 公司代码 名称 | | 2024-12-29 \n股价 | | | | EPS PE \n2023 2024E 2025E 2023 2024E 2025E | | | 投资评级 | | 000801.SZ | 四川九洲 | 15.30 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 76.50 | 61.20 | 46.36 | 买入 | | 001696.SZ | 宗申动力 ...

1.行情跟踪-行业月度涨跌幅 资料来源：WIND，华鑫证券研究所 最近一周跌幅最小的子板块为医疗器械，跌幅0.63%（相对沪深300：-1.99%）；跌幅最大的为医疗服务，跌幅3.70%（相 对沪深300：-5.06%）。 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 近一周（2024/12/22-2024/12/28），涨幅最大的是和铂医药-B、东阳光、景峰医药；跌幅最大的是莱美药业、悦 康药业、创新医疗。 1.行情跟踪-子行业相对估值 资料来源：WIND，华鑫证券研究所 医药生物行业最近1月跌幅为2.74% ，跑输沪深300指数4.63个百分点 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 医药生物行业估值低于历史五年平均 20 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 用户到道 资料来源：政府文件，华鑫证券研究所 5 . 近 期 行 业 要 闻 梳 理 12月27日 近日，专注于开发靶向蛋白质降解（TPD）疗法的生物技术公司Ubix Therapeutics宣布，其已通过Pre-IPO轮吸引了价值 257亿韩元的投资。 12月25日，中国国家药监局药品审评中心（CDE）官网公示，勃 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the sector [6]. Core Insights - The domestic passenger car industry is expected to evolve towards higher levels of intelligence, with advanced driving penetration rates anticipated to rise rapidly. As of November 2024, the penetration rate for L2 and above reached 54.5%, with L3 level intelligent driving expected to be implemented quickly [4][18]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of the "old-for-new" policy combined with the year-end automotive consumption peak, suggesting that the high prosperity of the automotive market will continue [5]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, particularly those with deep collaborations with Huawei, such as Seres, JAC Motors, and BAIC Blue Valley [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown strong performance with a 1-month increase of 3.9%, a 3-month increase of 15.5%, and a 12-month increase of 18.8%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Complete vehicles: Focus on Seres, JAC Motors, and BAIC Blue Valley, which have strong ties with Huawei [6]. 2. Auto parts: The report highlights growth opportunities in various segments, including lightweight materials, interior and exterior parts, and smart vehicles [8]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for several companies, with a focus on their expected performance in the coming years. For instance, Seres is projected to have significant growth potential [10][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [26][27]. Core Insights - The market for electric vehicles (EVs) is showing strong growth, with Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) accounting for 61.0% of total new energy vehicle sales, while Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHVs) have decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 39.0%. BEV sales reached 1.068 million units, surpassing the previous record of 983,000 units in December 2023 [6]. - The report highlights that November saw significant growth in new car sales in the U.S., with 1.364 million units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% and a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [7]. - The report indicates that the automotive market in China continues to thrive, with November new car sales reaching 2.583 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.3% and a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [24]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The automotive sector has shown a relative performance increase of 3.9% over the past month, 15.5% over the past three months, and 18.8% over the past year, outperforming the CSI 300 index which recorded increases of 1.6%, 7.5%, and 16.0% respectively [1]. Sales and Market Trends - In November, the total sales of new energy vehicles in major countries reached 1.75 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 40.0% and a month-on-month increase of 9.1%, achieving a historical high [23]. - The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to November reached 13.456 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, accounting for 23.7% of total vehicle sales [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with deep collaborations with Huawei, such as Seres and JAC Motors, as well as on automotive parts manufacturers that are expected to benefit from the restructuring of the supply chain and technological changes [26]. - Specific sectors to watch include lightweight components, interior and exterior parts, and smart automotive technologies, with recommended companies including Wencan, Meilixin, and Huayang Group [26].

行 2024 年 12 月 29 日 括，（1）整车：建议关注与华为有深度合作的赛力斯、江淮 ▌ 风险提示 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 2 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究（注：未评级公司盈利预测取自万得一致预期） 证券研究报告 张智策：武汉大学本科，哥伦比亚大学硕士，2024 年加入华鑫证券。2 年华为 汽车业务工作经验，主要负责智选车型战略规划及相关竞品分析。 本报告署名分析师具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格并注册为 证券分析师，以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确 地反映了本人的研究观点。本人不曾因，不因，也将不会因本报告中的具体推 荐意见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

证 2024 年 12 月 29 日 报 告 行 究 全球科技盛会CES 2025 开幕在即,DeepSeek-V3 开启普惠 AGI 新篇章 推荐(维持) 投资要点 行业相对表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 ▌算力：算力租赁价格平稳，CES 2025 有望引领全 球消费电子新潮 表现 1M 3M 12M 计算机(申万) 7.5 38.5 1.6 沪深 300 -3.2 14.9 8.5 研 究 —计算机行业周报 分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoyc@cfsc.com.cn 市场表现 (%) 计算机 沪深300 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 相关研究 1、《计算机行业点评报告：OpenAI day2 更新发布，强化微调计划扩 展》2024-12-24 2、《计算机行业点评报告：OpenAI day1 更 新 发 布 ， 新 产 品 o1 与 ChatGPTPro 面世》2024-12-24 3、《计算机行业点评报告：OpenAI day4 更新发布，Canvas 与 ChatGPT 深度整合》2024-12-24 业 本周算力租赁价格保持平稳。具体来看，显卡配 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as 科大讯飞 (iFlytek), 寒武纪 (Cambricon), and 鼎通科技 (DingTong Technology) with expected price increases of over 20% [65][68]. Core Insights - CES 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal event for global consumer electronics, showcasing advancements in AI applications and technologies [6][87]. - The launch of DeepSeek-V3 has generated significant industry interest, demonstrating superior performance in various benchmarks compared to leading models [82][93]. - The AI computing sector is expected to continue its growth, with a focus on domestic computing power and AI applications, particularly in areas like AI PCs and smart driving [10][72]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer industry has shown a performance increase of 7.5% over the past month, contrasting with a decline of 3.2% in the CSI 300 index [106]. Computing Power Dynamics - The rental prices for computing power have remained stable, with specific configurations such as A100-40G priced at 28.64 CNY/hour on Tencent Cloud and 31.58 CNY/hour on Alibaba Cloud [101][107]. AI Application Dynamics - Discord's search traffic increased by 5.40% week-on-week, indicating growing interest in AI applications [121]. - The launch of DeepSeek-V3 has positioned it as a leading model in performance metrics, significantly enhancing user experience with a threefold increase in generation speed [94][93]. AI Financing Trends - The companies 阶跃星辰 (Step Star) and Cursor have secured significant funding, with amounts reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, indicating robust investment interest in AI technologies [86][129]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for AI computing and applications, emphasizing the importance of monitoring developments in the sector [10][72].