证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 煤炭建材市场下行，有色石油石化降温， 农产品期货外盘表现疲软 价格高频数据跟踪W46 报告日期：2024年11月16日 数据截至日期：2024年11月14日 本周日期范围：2024年11月08日至2024年11月14日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | ◼ 分析师：吕思江 | | | | | | ◼ SAC 编号： S1050522030001 | | | | 投 资 要 点 【本周关注1——有色：碳酸锂】： 本周碳酸锂期货显著上行，涨幅+5.40%，价格处1年历史分位点低位(17.15%)。需求方面，尽管步入淡季，但目 前表现仍较强，11月因抢出口等因素排产保持在较高水平。供给方面，国内碳酸锂周度产量维持平稳；海外矿山 陆续公布三季度财报，部分企业下调生产指引，海外供应未来或有所下滑；另外，由于需求强劲及部分云母生产 企业停产，国内碳酸锂社会库存近两月持续去化，短期内对锂价形成支撑，后续将持续关注是否继 ...

证 2024 年 11 月 17 日 报 告 表现 1M 3M 12M 汽车(申万) 11.5 28.0 7.5 沪深 300 4.8 18.6 11.2 行 业 研 究 多家主机厂进军低空等科技产业，估值有望迎来 重估 —汽车行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 市场表现 (%) 汽车 沪深300 -30 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 30 -20 -10 0 10 20 相关研究 1、《汽车行业周报：重申特斯拉产 业链投资机会》2024-11-10 2、《新势力 10 月销量点评：小 鹏、零跑等多家车企交付量创历史 新高，汽车消费有望维持高景气 度》2024-11-04 3、《汽车行业周报：10 月多家造车 新势力销量创历史新高，机器人丝 杠赛道持续扩容》2024-11-03 ▌多家主机厂进军低空等科技产业，估值有望迎来 重估 小鹏发布新一代人形机器人 Iron，成功迁徙其智驾能力应 用：11 月 6 日，在小鹏 AI 科技日上,小鹏 AI 机器人 Iron 正 式亮相。小鹏 Iron 身高 1.78m，体重 ...

证 2024 年 11 月 17 日 告 行 研 究 生猪盈利幅度及时间维持乐观判断，双 11 宠物 赛道成交额 5 倍扩容 —农林牧渔行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：娄倩 S1050524070002 louqian@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：卫正 S1050124080020 weizheng2@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 农林牧渔(申万) 7.4 9.3 -6.5 沪深 300 4.8 18.6 11.2 市场表现 (%) 农林牧渔 沪深300 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《农林牧渔行业周报：10 月集团 场生猪出栏节奏加快，宠物多条赛 道持续利好》2024-11-10 2、《农林牧渔行业周报：Q3 生猪养 殖业绩兑现，宠物盈利水平显著提 升，农林牧渔基金重仓市值比略有 下降》2024-11-03 3、《农林牧渔行业周报：需求拉动 短期猪价回涨，但不改长期向下趋 势，双十一宠物产品需求增长亮 眼》2024-10-20 业 ▌ 本周观点 供需博弈格局不同，推动商品猪、仔猪出栏价格走向两级分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the media industry [5][26]. Core Insights - The integration of AI technology, particularly AI glasses, is expected to create new paradigms in content supply and drive growth in the media sector. Major tech companies are investing in AI hardware, which is anticipated to benefit both consumer electronics and media applications [4][21][22]. - The upcoming 2025 Spring Festival film season is expected to boost cinema attendance and revenue, with several films already scheduled for release [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview and Dynamics - The media industry has shown varied performance, with the internet marketing index experiencing significant gains while the O2O index has declined. Notable stock movements include a 30.51% increase for Dou Shen Education and a 20.29% decrease for Bilibili [20]. - The gaming market in China reached a scale of 29.083 billion yuan in October 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4%. The mobile gaming sector showed a revenue increase of 17.07% year-on-year [25]. Key Recommendations and Logic - Specific stocks recommended include BlueFocus Communication Group (300058), Zhejiang Wenlian (600986), Mango Excellent Media (300413), and Wanda Film (002739), all expected to benefit from trends in digital marketing and cinema [5][11][12]. - The report highlights the potential of AI agents in various sectors, including digital marketing and content creation, with companies like BlueFocus and Zhejiang Wenlian positioned to leverage these advancements [23][24]. Film Market - The film "The Legend of the Condor Heroes: The Hero of the Great" is set to premiere on January 29, 2025, marking a significant addition to the upcoming film lineup [37]. - Recent box office statistics indicate a weekly revenue of 164 million yuan, with top films including "Burning City" and "Venom: Let There Be Carnage" [39]. Television Market - The report notes that popular TV shows include "Little Alley Family" and "People's Police," which have garnered high viewership ratings [47].

Group 1 - The current macro policy shift in China has similarities with Japan's transition in 1992 and Europe's unconventional debt resolution from 2012 to 2015, both leading to bull markets in stocks and bonds [1][2][3] - Japan's stock market saw a significant recovery from 1992 to 1994, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 50.6% over 462 trading days, following a major policy shift that included substantial interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus [3][4] - The European stock market experienced a bull run from 2012 to 2015, with an 88% increase over 1239 trading days, driven by unconventional monetary policies and liquidity support during the debt crisis [4][18] Group 2 - The report highlights the macroeconomic conditions in Japan and China, noting that both faced significant economic downturns after asset bubbles burst, with Japan's stock market dropping by 63.6% and China's A-share market declining by nearly 28% [7][9] - The analysis indicates that both countries experienced prolonged periods of economic adjustment, with Japan's real estate prices falling by 44.76% over 83 months, while China's real estate market has seen a 5.63% decline over 30 months [7][9] - The report draws parallels between the policy responses in Japan and China, emphasizing the importance of coordinated monetary and fiscal measures to stabilize markets and restore investor confidence [10][13] Group 3 - The report outlines the specific policy measures taken in Japan during its recovery phase, including aggressive interest rate cuts and large-scale fiscal stimulus, which collectively aimed to stabilize the financial markets and support economic growth [44] - It also discusses China's recent policy measures, including significant monetary easing and fiscal expansion, aimed at addressing the current economic challenges and supporting the real estate sector [14][38] - The expectation is set for a substantial increase in debt resolution efforts in China, which is anticipated to be the largest in recent years, reflecting a proactive approach to managing economic risks [38]

Group 1: Market Comparisons - The current macro policy shift in China is comparable to Japan's in 1992 and Europe's in 2012, both leading to simultaneous bull markets in stocks and bonds[2] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose by 50.6% over 462 trading days from August 1992 to June 1994, marking its first bull market after the bubble burst[3] - European stocks saw an 88% increase over 1239 trading days from November 2011 to April 2015, following unconventional monetary policies during the debt crisis[4] Group 2: Policy Shifts - Japan's macro policy shift in 1992 involved significant interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, transitioning from a bond bull market and stock bear market to a dual bull market[3] - China's recent policy changes include a comprehensive package of monetary easing and fiscal expansion, aiming to restore market confidence and risk appetite[13] - The anticipated scale of debt resolution in China is expected to be the largest in recent years, with a focus on supporting real estate and stabilizing the banking sector[38] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Japan's GDP growth rate fell from 7-8% before the bubble burst to negative growth in 1993-1994, with significant deflationary pressures emerging[9] - China's GDP growth has also declined, dropping to around 5% after a peak of 8.1% in 2021, with PPI and CPI showing signs of deflation since late 2022[10] - The debt-to-GDP ratio in several European countries was unsustainable, with Italy at 116% and Greece at 130% during the crisis, reflecting similar concerns in China regarding local government debt[22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 3260.24 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1,166.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.47% [2] - Despite a challenging external environment, the company increased its oil and gas production by 7% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching 179.6 million barrels of oil equivalent [3] - The company's cost control measures were effective, with the cost per barrel of oil remaining stable at 28.14 USD, and operating cash flow increased by 14.92% year-on-year to 1827.68 billion yuan [4] - The company made 9 new discoveries and successfully evaluated 23 oil and gas structures in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating strong growth potential [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was 992.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.51%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 369.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.98% [2] - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1827.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.92% [4] - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1459 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 8.6x, and is projected to grow to 1679 billion yuan by 2026, with a PE ratio of 7.5x [6] Production and Exploration - The company's total oil and gas production in Q3 2024 was 179.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 7%, driven by contributions from fields such as Bozhong 19-6 and Enping 20-4, as well as the Payara project in Guyana [3] - The company made 2 new discoveries and successfully evaluated 5 oil and gas structures in Q3 2024, further enhancing its resource base [5] Cost Management - The company's cost per barrel of oil was 28.14 USD in the first three quarters of 2024, remaining stable compared to the previous year [4] - The company's total period expense ratio was 3.15%, an increase of only 0.11 percentage points year-on-year, demonstrating effective cost control [4] Future Growth Prospects - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1459 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 1679 billion yuan by 2026, with a PE ratio of 7.5x [6] - The company's ROE is projected to be 20.1% in 2024, maintaining a strong level of profitability [6] - The company's EPS is expected to increase from 2.60 yuan in 2023 to 3.53 yuan in 2026, indicating strong earnings growth potential [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown a quarter-on-quarter improvement in net profit for Q3, with a focus on enhancing its titanium ore resources to solidify its cost advantage [2][5] - Despite a decline in domestic titanium dioxide prices, the overall export volume continues to grow, supporting the company's revenue [3] - The company has effectively controlled its expenses, leading to a significant increase in cash flow [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 20.885 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.564 billion yuan, up 19.68% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 7.081 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.85% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.77%, with a net profit of 842 million yuan, down 4.29% year-on-year but up 9.33% quarter-on-quarter [2] Market Dynamics - The average price of titanium dioxide in Q3 was 15,407 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.70% decrease quarter-on-quarter, while the export volume of titanium dioxide increased by 11.66% year-on-year [3] - The price of titanium concentrate remained stable, with the average price in Q3 at 2,227 yuan per ton, up 0.85% quarter-on-quarter [3] Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced its total expense ratio to 10.99%, down 1.07 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective internal management [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q3 was 2.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.58% [4] Resource Strategy - The company is actively increasing its titanium ore resource reserves, recently acquiring exploration rights for a new titanium mine, which is expected to enhance its self-sufficiency and reduce reliance on external markets [5] - This strategy is anticipated to support profit growth as the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials improves [5] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.8 billion yuan, 4.5 billion yuan, and 5.3 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.2, 10.3, and 8.8 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the AI sector, including Keda Xunfei (002230.SZ), Cambrian-U (688256.SH), and Dingtong Technology (688668.SH) [4][37]. Core Insights - The AI application landscape is evolving with the launch of ChatGPT's search function, which enhances user experience by providing intelligent and precise search results, breaking traditional search engine limitations [12][14]. - Tencent has open-sourced its MoE model "Hunyuan Large" and the 3D generation model "Hunyuan3D-1.0," which have been validated across nearly 700 internal business scenarios [17][26]. - The AI financing landscape shows significant activity, with Physical Intelligence and Self-variable Robotics securing $400 million and a substantial amount in RMB, respectively, indicating strong investor interest in AI technologies [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Computing Power Dynamics - The rental prices for computing power remain stable, with specific pricing details for various configurations provided [11]. 2. AI Application Dynamics - ChatGPT's search access volume increased by 2.89% week-on-week, with significant traffic data highlighting its leading position among AI-related websites [12][13]. - The launch of ChatGPT's search function offers semantic understanding, personalized recommendations, knowledge integration, conversational interaction, real-time information retrieval, and multilingual support [14][15]. - Tencent's "Hunyuan Large" model features 389 billion total parameters and has shown superior performance in various evaluations [17][18]. 3. AI Financing Trends - Physical Intelligence and Self-variable Robotics are leading in AI startup financing, with notable contributions from top-tier investors [28][29]. 4. Market Review - The AI computing index and AI application index have shown significant growth, with specific companies recording notable increases in their stock performance [30][31]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading AI companies such as Keda Xunfei, Cambrian-U, and Dingtong Technology, which are expected to benefit from emerging demand in the AI sector [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company faced pressure in Q3 2024, with a year-to-date revenue of 147.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.35% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 12.67% to 11.1 billion yuan [2][4] - The company is entering a new phase of internationalization through a joint venture with international giants to build a specialized polyethylene integrated project in Fuzhou, expected to enhance its global competitiveness [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 50.5 billion yuan, a 12.48% year-on-year increase, but a net profit of 2.9 billion yuan, down 29.41% year-on-year [2][3] - The company produced 1.38 million tons of polyurethane products in Q3, a 6.12% decrease from the previous quarter, but sales increased by 2.17% to 1.41 million tons [3] Raw Material Prices - Significant increases in raw material prices were noted in Q3 2024, with pure benzene up by 13.06%, propane by 25.16%, and butane by 24.35%, impacting overall net profit [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s EPS is projected to be 6.20 yuan in 2024, 7.34 yuan in 2025, and 8.36 yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.0, 11.0, and 9.6 [6][8]