证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程深度报告 直面低利率时代的挑战（上篇）：基于多 空风险平价的华鑫量化大类资产全天候 多元资产2025年度策略 报告日期：2024年12月29日 ◼ 分析师：吕思江 ◼ SAC编号：S1050522030001 ◼ 联系人：刘新源 ◼ 联系人：刘新源 ◼ SAC编号：S1050123100011 ◼ SAC编号：S1050123100011 投 资 要 点 【1】：随着中国逐步进入低利率时代，从哪里寻找新的收益来源成为投资的核心难题。我们认为多资产配置 思路，叠加合理的使用杠杆，以及通过多空方式投资于因子溢价，从海外经验来看是一条可行道路。全天候策略 的核心是超越对经济形式和市场环境的单一预测模式，通过合理的资产配置，保障在各种复杂的市场条件下均能 收获相对稳定的收益。该策略在定量上基于风险平价的理念，根据四类资产：商品、权益、债券、（美股，如国 内版可不加入）的风险特征和收益预测来分配权重，动态调整构建能够在不同市场周期中获利的"全天候"策略 组合。本文是该思路的上篇，主要使用期货合约落地，优势是杠杆灵活，更接近"风险平价"的本质，劣势是不 便于纳入海外资产，以及权益和债券的颗 ...

调入：养殖、医药。 调出：传媒、交运。 行业：电力设备新能源、食品饮料、军工、（煤炭、电力）、（电子、医药）、（银 行、养殖）。 1.7、 每周首推 ETF 本周首推传媒 ETF（512980）和信息安全 ETF（159613）。 图表 3：近期周首推表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 2、 轮动框架介绍与组合绩效回顾 我们认为行业内基本面逻辑发生改变时，首先体现在高频行业数据的结果中。当市场 上有影响力的投资者捕获到上述信息变动时，会对这种信息做出响应。当市场对逻辑认可 时，"聪明钱"将流入该行业或个股。最终体现在当期正式财报中。 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 8 证券研究报告 华鑫证券 基于上述框架，我们在前文中，分别构建了： 1. 代表投资者观点变动的"财报预期"因子 2. 代表聪明钱交易行为的"与鲸同游复合资金流因子" 用于行业比较和构建轮动策略。 PMS 中我们展示相对于沪深 300 的收益率，长期累计超额收益显著。另外我们计算与鲸 同游组合相较于行业等权基准超额情况： ⚫ "与鲸同游"行业轮动组合上周绝对收益 1.00%相对收益 0.41%。 图表 4：行业比较框架梳理 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating to the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leader in the smart interactive display industry, with significant growth potential driven by the introduction of AI glasses [20]. - The company achieved a revenue of 11.391 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.45% [20]. - The company is actively embracing technological changes and increasing R&D investments, showcasing strong growth momentum and good growth potential [20]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to generate revenues of 16.023 billion yuan, 18.378 billion yuan, and 20.801 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.26 yuan, 1.69 yuan, and 2.06 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22, 16, and 13 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [20].

2024 年 12 月 29 日 表现 1M 3M 12M 电子(申万) 6.7 34.5 26.2 沪深 300 2.8 7.5 16.6 研 究 报 分析师：毛正 S1050521120001 maozheng@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 市场表现 相关研究 业 12 月 27 日，据上海市人民政府网站，上海市人民政府办公 厅印发《关于人工智能"模塑申城"的实施方案》，到 2025 年底，建成世界级人工智能产业生态，力争全市智能算力规 模突破 100EFLOPS，形成 50 个左右具有显著成效的行业开放 语料库示范应用成果，建设 3-5 个大模型创新加速孵化器， 建成一批上下游协同的赋能中心和垂直模型训练场。 12 月 26 日，国内私募机构幻方量化旗下的 DeepSeek 发布新 一代开源大模型 DeepSeek-v3，DeepSeek 称该模型是目前最 强的开源大模型，能力与闭源的 GPT-4o 相近，而训练仅需要 2048 张英伟达 H800AI 芯片。作为参考，OpenAI 训练最新模 型单集群算力规模超过万卡。 12 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in high-end markets and intelligent vehicle segments [7][48]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, driven by the increasing penetration of intelligent features and the expansion of high-end models from domestic brands [7]. - The report emphasizes the successful sales performance of the AITO Wenjie M9, which has surpassed 200,000 pre-orders, indicating strong market demand [24]. - The collaboration between major distributors and manufacturers, such as the agreement between Zhongsheng Group and Seres, is expected to accelerate order growth and enhance market presence [24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown a 1-month performance of 4.3%, a 3-month performance of 15.5%, and a 12-month performance of 21.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [4]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Seres and Jianghuai Automobile, which have deep collaborations with Huawei [7]. - Focus on automotive parts manufacturers benefiting from technological changes and export opportunities, including: - Lightweight components: Wenchan Co., Meilixin, Aikedi, Rongtai, and Quanfeng Automotive [7]. - Interior and exterior parts: Xinquan Co., Daimai Co., and Mould Technology [7]. - Intelligent automotive solutions: China Automotive Research, China Automotive Industry, Huayang Group, Bertley, and Baolong Technology [7]. - Humanoid robots: Dual Lin Co., Shuanghuan Transmission, Jingzhuan Technology, and Best [7]. - North Exchange: Jun Chuang Technology, KAIT Co., and Yishijing Precision [7]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the automotive industry will maintain high growth due to favorable policies, such as trade-in incentives and the peak season for automotive consumption [7]. - The introduction of new models, including the upcoming models from the Wenjie series and the Zun Jie S800, is expected to enhance the high-end market positioning of Huawei's automotive partners [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of December 26, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see a recovery as it moves past its darkest period, with commercial health insurance development becoming a key focus for the National Healthcare Security Administration by 2025, potentially leading to new growth in payment channels [3][4]. - Despite the challenges faced in 2024, including a lackluster performance in the secondary market, the trend of industrial upgrading is strengthening, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][4]. - The introduction of new technologies and the exploration of overseas markets are expected to create structural opportunities for growth, with the pharmaceutical industry continuing to evolve through upgrades despite constraints from healthcare policies [5][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Industry Challenges - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing significant investment pressure, with the industry ranking last among 31 sub-industries in terms of market performance as of December 19, 2024. Factors include insufficient growth in hospital channel demand and ongoing policy disruptions [7][54]. - The growth rate of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was only 0.1% in the first ten months of 2024, with profits declining by 1.3% [35]. 2. Recovery and Integration - The industry is undergoing a phase of recovery, with active adjustments in business strategies leading to a temporary upward cycle. Mergers and acquisitions are accelerating due to financing constraints, creating new value through resource integration [4][8]. - The report highlights that while the industry faces long-term challenges, there are signs of recovery in certain segments, such as bulk raw materials and low-value consumables, which are expected to continue their recovery trend into 2025 [8]. 3. Structural Opportunities - The development of new markets and the introduction of AI and other innovative technologies are expected to enhance organizational efficiency and create new growth avenues within the pharmaceutical ecosystem [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that while the overall market growth is constrained by healthcare policies, structural growth remains a key theme, with increasing investment opportunities as more pharmaceutical segments emerge from their lowest points [5][8]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, particularly those that are entering commercialization and are expected to benefit from new healthcare policies. Companies such as 百洋医药 (Baiyang Pharmaceutical) and 康希诺 (CanSino) are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [10][18]. - The report also recommends companies that are leveraging new technologies in the healthcare sector, such as 祥生医疗 (Xiangsheng Medical) and 联影医疗 (United Imaging), as they are expected to significantly improve operational efficiency [10][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [20]. Core Insights - The company, Xingchen Technology (301536.SZ), has seen an increase in chip sales revenue, indicating a recovery in industry sentiment. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 196 million yuan, up 4.51% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw revenue of 630 million yuan, reflecting a 29.08% year-on-year growth [4][20]. - The company is actively positioning itself in the AI glasses market, which is a significant application for edge AI. The SoC chips for AI glasses must meet four essential criteria: compact size, low power consumption, high visual quality (ISP), and intelligent multi-modal interaction capabilities. The company has released a suitable SoC chip for AI glasses and is expected to launch terminal products in the second half of 2025 [4][20]. - The acquisition of 3D ToF business from Fujian Jiemu Technology Co., Ltd. enhances the company's ability to provide comprehensive 3D perception solutions, integrating its ISP technology with Jiemu's ToF sensors, thereby improving competitiveness in the edge AI SoC chip market [4][20]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 2.493 billion yuan, 3.001 billion yuan, and 3.578 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.63 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 1.18 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 116.1 for 2024 [6][23]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 3.44 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.371 billion yuan in 2026, with total liabilities increasing from 1.35 billion yuan to 1.433 billion yuan over the same period [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, Xinyangfeng, Yuanxing Energy, Tongkun Co., Satellite Chemical, and Huafeng Chemical [29]. Core Insights - The Chinese chemical industry has rapidly developed from a weak starting point, overcoming Western technological blockades to establish a relatively complete industrial chain, leading to significant global market positions in various chemical products [17][45]. - China's chemical industry has become a major contributor to global chemical production capacity, achieving breakthroughs in multiple product categories and transitioning from an importer to a leader in the global market [45][69]. - Cost advantages, driven by resource endowments and industrial chain improvements, have become the core competitive strength of leading companies in the chemical sector [50][59]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Development of the Chemical Industry - The Chinese chemical industry began its development in the late Qing Dynasty but faced significant challenges due to limited national strength and technological barriers from Western countries [17][19]. - Post-reform, the industry has seen rapid growth, particularly in coal and petrochemical sectors, establishing a stable supply system for energy and chemical raw materials [21][23]. Section 2: Cost Advantages - The report highlights that large-scale production and industrial park integration have significantly reduced logistics and environmental costs compared to Western countries [50][56]. - China's abundant resources and efficient procurement systems have led to lower raw material costs, enhancing the competitive edge of domestic chemical companies [59][60]. Section 3: Capacity Expansion and Market Leadership - The report notes that China has achieved significant capacity expansions in products like titanium dioxide and MDI, with market shares reaching 53% and 45% respectively by 2023 [45][69]. - Leading companies are expected to further increase their global market share through capacity expansion and cost control measures [50][59]. Section 4: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that supportive policies and a focus on energy conservation and emission reduction will continue to drive down costs for leading companies in the chemical sector [50][69].

▌ 证券分析师承诺 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资建议 预测个股相对同期证券市场代表性指数涨幅 | | 1 | | | | | 买入 | | > 20% | | 2 | | | | | 增持 | | 10% — 20% | | 3 | | | | | 中性 | | -10% — 10% | | 4 | | | | | 卖出 | | < -10% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company for the first time [9] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading provider of communication information solutions in China, actively expanding its mobile and computing businesses, and is expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI [9] Summary by Sections Company Overview and Strategy - The company is known as the "Digital Economy Enabler" and has launched AI servers supporting the "one machine, multiple chips" architecture, a full-stack intelligent computing solution, and the self-developed Xingyun large model, which is widely used in industries such as industrial and communication [2] - The company holds a leading position in the telecom server market and has successfully won multiple centralized procurement projects from operators [2] - In the mobile business, ZTE is promoting AI-driven full-scenario smart ecosystem 3.0, with ZTE phones focusing on government and operator markets, Nubia phones targeting imaging and global layout, and Red Magic phones leading in the global gaming phone market [2] - The company will continue to deepen the "Connectivity + Computing Power" strategy, promoting the development of 5G-A, optical networks, and intelligent computing infrastructure to enhance core competitiveness and drive sustainable development [2] Financial Performance and Projections - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 128.70, 137.39, and 147.79 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS of 2.07, 2.24, and 2.49 yuan [9][10] - The revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are projected to be 3.6%, 6.7%, and 7.6%, respectively [10] - Net profit attributable to母公司股东 is expected to grow by 6.4%, 7.9%, and 11.2% in 2024-2026, reaching 9.93, 10.71, and 11.92 billion yuan [10] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 17.7, 16.4, and 14.8 times, respectively [9] Product and Market Development - The company's AI servers and computing solutions are expected to drive growth, with the AI server market projected to grow significantly [2] - The company's mobile business is diversified, with ZTE, Nubia, and Red Magic phones targeting different markets and achieving significant success in the gaming phone sector [2] - The company's telecom server business continues to lead, with successful bids in multiple operator procurement projects [2] Technological Advancements - The company is actively developing technologies such as 5G-A, optical networks, and intelligent computing infrastructure to strengthen its position in the market [2] - The company's self-developed large models and AI solutions are expected to drive efficiency and innovation across various industries [2] Competitive Position - The company is a global leader in comprehensive communication information solutions, serving over 1/4 of the world's population and covering 160 countries and regions [2] - The company's business is divided into three main segments: operator networks, government business, and consumer business, with a focus on innovation and end-to-end solutions [2]