| --- | --- | |--------------|-------------------------------------------| | | | | 研究所： | | | 证券分析师： | 谢文迪 S0350522110004 xiewd@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 ： | 林晓莹 S0350123070003 linxy02@ghzq.com.cn | 2024 年 09 月 09 日 行业研究 最近一年走势 行业相对表现 2024/08/23 美联储降息或步伐加快。周内美国公布的数据使市场更倾向于押注 美联储 9 月降息 25 基点。8 月 30 日公布美国 7 月 PCE 物价指数同 比+2.6%（预期 2.7%），基本符合市场预期。9 月 3 日 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 47.2（前值/预期：46.8/47.5），小幅回升但总体制造业活动 低迷，叠加 9 月 6 日非农数据人数增加 14.2 万人，不及预期的 16.1 万人，劳动力市场降温超预期。市场担忧情绪转浓，周五美国股市 全线下跌。综合通胀和就业数据，市场预期美联储将在 9 月降息 25 基点，但美国经济数据的复 ...

2024 年 09 月 07 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | 研究所： | | | | 证券分析师： | 马川琪 S0350523050001 macq@ghzq.com.cn | | | 证券分析师： | 廖小慧 S0350524080002 liaoxh@ghzq.com.cn | | [Table_Title] 美国女装业务增长放缓，中国大陆表现亮眼 ——露露乐蒙（LULU）点评报告（港股美股） 最近一年走势 事件: Lululemon（LULU.US）于 2024 年 8 月 29 日发布 FY2024Q2（截至 2024 年 7 月 28 日）业绩：FY2024Q2 净收入 23.7 亿美元，同比+7%， 按固定汇率同比+8%；可比销售额同比+2%，按固定汇率同比+3%；毛 利润 14 亿美元，同比+9%；毛利率 59.6%，较上年同期+0.8pct；经营 利润 5.4 亿美元，同比+13%；营业利润率 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meitu Inc (1357 HK) [2] Core Views - Meitu achieved strong profit growth in H1 2024, with revenue of RMB 1 62 billion (YoY +28 6%), gross profit of RMB 1 05 billion (YoY +39 6%), and net profit of RMB 300 million (YoY +45 0%) [3] - The company's adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 270 million (YoY +80 3%), driven by rapid growth in AI-powered imaging and design products [3] - Meitu's globalization strategy is progressing successfully, with overseas MAU accounting for 32 9% of total MAU [3] - The company's AI-driven productivity tools, particularly X-Design and Wink, showed significant user growth and revenue increases [3] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Meitu's imaging and design product revenue grew 54 5% YoY to RMB 930 million, driven by increased user base and paid penetration rate [3] - The company's total MAU reached 258 million (YoY +4 3%), with paid subscribers hitting 10 81 million (4 2% penetration rate) [3] - X-Design revenue surged 152% YoY, with 960,000 subscribers, while Wink's MAU grew approximately 99% YoY [3] - Beauty solutions revenue declined 5 5% YoY to RMB 270 million, while advertising revenue recovered with 18 3% YoY growth to RMB 410 million [3] Product Development - Meitu launched its WonderVision 5 0 model supporting video generation and six new AI+ imaging design products at its third imaging festival [3] - The company continues to strengthen its position as a leading C-end imaging platform with significant AIGC application realization [3] Market Performance - Meitu's current share price is HKD 2 32, with a 52-week range of HKD 2 13-4 19 [3] - The company's total market capitalization stands at HKD 10,521 42 million [3] - Meitu's stock performance over the past year shows -31 4% return, underperforming the Hang Seng Index's -5 5% [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow to RMB 3 6 billion in 2024, RMB 4 5 billion in 2025, and RMB 5 4 billion in 2026 [6] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach RMB 560 million in 2024, RMB 800 million in 2025, and RMB 1 06 billion in 2026 [6] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 9% in 2023 to 16% in 2026 [7] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 0 09 in 2023 to RMB 0 25 in 2026 [7] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decline from 23 46x in 2023 to 9 18x in 2026 [7] - P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 2 33x in 2023 to 1 57x in 2026 [7] - P/S ratio is forecasted to drop from 3 55x in 2023 to 1 77x in 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Insights - The company has experienced a decline in revenue due to macroeconomic factors affecting its payment business, but growth in merchant solutions has offset some of these losses [2][3] - The overseas payment business is expanding, with significant growth in Singapore, while the company is adjusting its in-store business strategy to focus on higher profitability [2][3] - The company is expected to achieve breakeven in its in-store e-commerce segment by the second half of 2024 [2] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.578 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 23.5%, with a gross profit of 300 million yuan, down 18.0% [2] - The net profit for H1 2024 was 33 million yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 7.3% [2] - Non-GAAP EBITDA for H1 2024 was 163 million yuan, down 43.9% year-over-year [2] Business Segment Analysis - The one-stop payment service revenue decreased by 26.6% to 1.35 billion yuan in H1 2024, primarily due to a 17.8% decline in total GPV [2] - Merchant solutions revenue grew by 21.2% to 202 million yuan, with an increase in active merchants by 5.8% [2] - The in-store e-commerce service revenue fell by 51.9% to 29 million yuan, attributed to a strategic shift towards more profitable clients [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 3.418 billion yuan, 3.992 billion yuan, and 4.521 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 118 million yuan, 275 million yuan, and 399 million yuan [3][4] - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.34 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 1.14 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]

2024 年 09 月 09 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2024 年第 159 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 业绩韧性较强，IP 业务业绩翻倍增长--上海电影/影视院线(601595/217206) 公司点评 8 月高质量策略逆势反超，多策略稳定推荐多配价值、质量组合--跟踪报告 业绩短期承压，储备重磅内容待释放--博纳影业/影视院线(001330/217206) 公司动态研究 持续推进技术进步，2024H1 业绩承压--沧州大化/化学制品(600230/212203) 公司点评 2024H1 业绩稳健增长，出海表现亮眼；2024H2 新品+IP 储备丰富，关注新品周期开启--恺英网络/游戏 Ⅱ(002517/217204) 公司动态研究 核心主业基本盘稳固，发布三年分红规划--皖新传媒/出版(601801/217209) 公司动态研究 公募机构持续发力布局指增 ETF，科创板指数体系不断丰富--跟踪报告 马朗煤矿获得核准，进一步夯实公司成长性--广汇能源/炼化及贸易(600256/2 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to have limited positive impact on risk assets, but historically, at least three out of four rate cut cycles since 1995 have seen a corresponding market rebound, suggesting a favorable trading environment until the end of the year [2][7]. - The report draws parallels with the 2019 A-share market performance, indicating that if domestic growth policies are strengthened, a rebound of approximately 5%-10% in the market is anticipated, similar to the rebounds observed in August-September 2019 and January-February 2024 [2][8]. - The report emphasizes that the effectiveness of domestic policy measures will significantly influence the recovery of the market, with the potential for thematic investment opportunities arising from the current economic environment [2][8]. Group 2 - The report identifies three key sectors that may benefit from the current economic conditions: financials and real estate due to macro liquidity easing, consumer staples and appliances as initial beneficiaries of foreign capital inflows, and small-cap growth sectors like TMT and defense as the market stabilizes [3][31]. - From a macro perspective, the report notes that the opening of monetary policy space during the three phases of loose trading in 2019 led to significant performance in large financial sectors, with banks and real estate benefiting from improved liquidity conditions [31][35]. - The report also highlights that during the loose trading periods, foreign capital inflows significantly impacted A-share performance, particularly in sectors favored by foreign investors such as consumer electronics and food and beverage [31][35].

2024 年 9 月 8 日 行业研究 相应板块表现(%) 研究所： 证券分析师： 马川琪 S0350523050001 macq@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 廖小慧 S0350122080035 liaoxh@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 美国非农数据出炉，江南布衣 FY2024 营利双增 ——海外消费行业周更新 恒生消费 (HSCGSI.HI)最近一年走势 一．宏观数据 美国 8 月失业率符合预期，新增就业人数低于预期：美国 8 月失业 率 4.2%，预期 4.2%，前值 4.3%；美国 8 月失业率创今年 6 月来新 低，为连续四个月上升以来首次下降。美国 8 月季调后非农就业人 口增 14.2 万人，预期增 16 万人，前值从增 11.4 万人修正为增 8.9 万人。 美国 6 月和 7 月非农就业人数累计下修 8.6 万人：6 月份非农新增就 业人数从 17.9 万人修正至 11.8 万人；7 月份非农新增就业人数从 11.4 万人修正至 8.9 万人。修正后，6 月和 7 月新增就业人数合计较 修正前低 8.6 万人。 表现 1M 3M 12M 恒生消费（2024/9 ...

2024 年 09 月 07 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 动力煤产业链持续去库存，打消市场对价格过度 调整担忧 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 行业相对表现 2024/09/06 动力煤产业链方面，供需关系上依然向好，日耗延续高位震荡，上 周下游港口及电厂延续去库状态，除了库存回落之外，近期产地发 运到港口依然呈现倒挂状态，港口优质资源较缺，上周港口煤价小 幅上涨，行业采购活跃度有所提升，价格过度调整的风险进一步释 放。焦煤产业链方面，产业链呈现一些积极信号，上周铁水产量有 所回升，蒙煤进口量大幅回落，港口焦煤价格筑底震荡，价格底部 较为确认。我们认为，从大方向来看，行业投资逻辑依然未变，我 们预计未来若干年，煤炭行业依然维持紧平衡状态，煤炭行业资产 质量高，账上现金流充沛，煤炭上市公司继续呈现"高盈利、高现 金流、高壁垒、高分红、高安全边际"五高特征。建议把握低位煤 炭板块的价值属性，维持煤炭开采行业"推荐"评级。重视如下几 方向的投资机会：（1）全年业绩质量高标的：晋控 ...

证券研究报告 有色金属 2024年09月08日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 铝行业周报：铝锭去库提速，氧化铝偏强上涨，关注需求旺 | | | | | | 季及降息 | | | | | | 评级：推荐(维持) | | | | | 陈晨(证券分析师) | 王璇(证券分析师) | | | | | S0350522110007 | S0350523080001 | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -24% -16% -9% -1% 6% 14% 2023/09 2023/12 2024/03 2024/06 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：铝价仍然偏强，关注需求旺季及降息（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2024-09-01 《铝行业周报： ...

2024 年 09 月 08 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | --- | --- | |--------------|------------------------------------------| | | | | 研究所： | | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 陈云 S0350524070001 cheny17@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2024Q2 全球半导体设备出货金额同增 4%， 台积电预计 2027 年实现 CoW-SoW 量产 ——化工新材料产业周报 投资要点: 最近一年走势 核心逻辑 新材料是化工行业未来发展的一个重要方向，正处于下游需求迅速 爆发阶段，随着政策支持与技术突破，国内新材料有望迎来加速成 长期。所谓"一代材料，一代产业"，新材料产业属于基石性产业， 是其他产业的物质基础。我们筛选了支撑人类社会发展的重要领域， 包括电子信息、新能源、生物 ...