2024 年 09 月 08 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | --- | --- | |--------------|------------------------------------------| | | | | 研究所： | | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 陈云 S0350524070001 cheny17@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2024Q2 全球半导体设备出货金额同增 4%， 台积电预计 2027 年实现 CoW-SoW 量产 ——化工新材料产业周报 投资要点: 最近一年走势 核心逻辑 新材料是化工行业未来发展的一个重要方向，正处于下游需求迅速 爆发阶段，随着政策支持与技术突破，国内新材料有望迎来加速成 长期。所谓"一代材料，一代产业"，新材料产业属于基石性产业， 是其他产业的物质基础。我们筛选了支撑人类社会发展的重要领域， 包括电子信息、新能源、生物 ...

2024 年 09 月 08 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 特斯拉预计 [Table_Title] 2025Q1 在中国推出 FSD，上海将 新能源乘用车以旧换新补贴提升至 2 万元 ——汽车行业周报 最近一年走势 投资要点： 行业相对表现 2024/09/06 周动态：特斯拉预计 2025Q1 在中国推出 FSD，上海将新能源乘用 车以旧换新补贴提升至 2 万元。 特斯拉预计 2025Q1 在中国推出 FSD。9 月 5 日，特斯拉官方账号 "Tesla AI"在社交媒体上宣布，预计 2025 年第一季度在中国和欧洲 推出 FSD 系统，但有待监管部门批准。在特斯拉发布 2024 二季度财 报之后的电话会议上，特斯拉 CEO 埃隆·马斯克曾表示，特斯拉 2024 年年底有可能在欧洲和中国等其他市场获得 FSD 许可，照此看来， 特斯拉 FSD 进入中国的时间表出现了一定的推迟。不过，FSD 在入 华方面，已经取得了一些进展。2024 年 4 月 28 日，中国汽车工业协 会、国家计算机网络应急技术处理协调中心发 ...

2024 年 09 月 08 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 孙嘉赓 S0350523120002 sunjg@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 券商催化要素二者已有其一，保险投资基础夯实 关注边际变化 ——非银金融行业周报 行业相对表现 2024/09/06 证券：国君收海通重磅官宣奏响券史并购最强音，板块向上催化要素二 者已有其一。1）本周证券 II（申万）指数下降 0.44%，截至 2024 年 9 月 6 日，券商指数 PB(lf)回升到 1.00，自指数创建以来估值分位 0.30%， 且该指数 50 个成分股中估值"破净"的仍高达 22 只。2）本周四深夜， 国泰君安收购海通证券的潜在头部交易正式官宣，这一堪称我国证券历 史上体量最大的并购案（合并双方净资产加总超过 3300 亿元）无疑吹响 了本轮券业并购潮的号角，大概率也将按下券商间并购整合的加速键， 兼具实际意义与象征意义。3）相比于历史上发生过的几次并购浪潮，本 轮的不同之处在于自上而下特征突出、波及范围与并购规模或史无前例。 之前我们曾经多次在周报中强调并提示头部券商间并购的较大可能性， 此次国君 ...

| --- | --- | |--------------|------------------------------------------| | | | | 研究所： | | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 胡国鹏 S0350521080003 hugp@ghzq.com.cn | 2024 年 09 月 08 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 行业相对表现 2024/09/06 我们认为，2024 年全球化工行业景气，供给端正在发生重大变化，当前 欧洲部分企业盈利大幅下行，由于成本费用上升以及设备寿命到期，欧 洲化工产能有加速退出的迹象；国内落后产能也到了盈亏平衡线，环保 督察和能耗标准升级，国内化工落后产能有望出清；而国内新增产能增 量逐渐达峰，未来资本支出有望下行；需求端，外需向好，内需筑底， 全球化工大的周期已见底。从全球的竞争格局看，中国优势企业的成本 和效率优势已经非常明显且稳固，中国优势企业仍在持续 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for SANY Heavy Industry is maintained as "Buy" [1][5] Core Views - The company's profitability is steadily improving, with significant achievements in overseas expansion [1][5] - In H1 2024, SANY Heavy Industry reported operating revenue of 39.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.16%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.573 billion yuan, an increase of 4.80% [2][3] - The company continues to strengthen its core competitiveness, maintaining a leading position in various machinery segments [3] Summary by Sections Profitability and Revenue - In H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 28.24% and a net margin of 9.42%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.03 percentage points and 0.57 percentage points respectively [3] - The company’s main business saw overseas sales revenue of 23.542 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, accounting for 62.23% of total revenue [3] Product Performance - Revenue growth varied by product: excavators +0.43%, concrete machinery -5.22%, cranes -10.10%, pile machinery -7.09%, and road machinery +15.74% [3] - The company has maintained its competitive edge, with excavators leading domestic sales for 13 consecutive years and concrete machinery holding the top global position [3] Global Expansion - The company is accelerating its globalization efforts, with significant growth in overseas profitability [3] - In H1 2024, the overseas gross margin reached 31.57%, up 0.56 percentage points year-on-year, supported by steady growth in major markets [3] Financial Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 77.9 billion yuan, 89.3 billion yuan, and 105 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 15%, and 18% respectively [3][6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 6.1 billion yuan, 7.8 billion yuan, and 10.1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 35%, 27%, and 29% respectively [3][6]

2024 年 09 月 06 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 证券分析师： 杨仁文 S0350521120001 yangrw@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 谭瑞峤 S0350521120004 tanrq@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 持续季度分红回馈股东，小游戏推动业绩增长， 关注 2024H2 新品周期 研究所： ——三七互娱（002555）公司动态研究 投资要点: 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------|-------------| | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2024/09/06 | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场数据 | | | 2024/09/06 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 13.82 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 12.04-25.68 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 30,650.88 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 22,175.49 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 221,786.43 ...

2024 年 09 月 08 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | --- | --- | |--------------|------------------------------------------| | | | | 研究所： | | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 贾冰 S0350524030003 jiab@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] Q2 销量环比大幅提升，工业硅景气度阶段承压 ——合盛硅业（603260）动态点评 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------|-------------| | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2024/09/06 | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场数据 | | | 2024/09/06 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus (600066) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - August sales showed a month-on-month increase, indicating a recovery from seasonal fluctuations. In August 2024, the company produced 4,189 buses, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, while sales reached 3,648 buses, a year-on-year decrease of 6.44%. However, sales improved by 8.7% month-on-month [3][4] - The cumulative sales from January to August 2024 reached 27,558 buses, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.36%. The overall sales and export outlook for the year remains positive [4] - The company is expected to benefit from new public transport subsidy policies introduced across various provinces, which aim to accelerate the replacement of old buses with new ones. Notably, seven provinces are projected to replace over 10,000 buses in 2024 [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Yutong Bus are as follows: 31.91 billion in 2024, 35.59 billion in 2025, and 38.99 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 12%, and 10% respectively [4][7] - Net profit forecasts are 3.44 billion in 2024, 3.97 billion in 2025, and 4.57 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 89%, 15%, and 15% respectively [4][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.55, 1.79, and 2.07 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times based on the current stock price [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Cangzhou Dahua [2][35]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue increase of 11.03% year-on-year in H1 2024, reaching 2.553 billion yuan, but faced a significant decline in net profit, down 75.97% to 29 million yuan [2][3]. - The performance in H1 2024 was impacted by weak terminal demand, particularly in the TDI segment, which saw a revenue drop of 14.91% [3][5]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 5.108 billion, 5.303 billion, and 5.613 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [35]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a net profit of 29 million yuan, a decrease of 75.97% year-on-year, with a significant drop in operating cash flow, down 35.49% to 196 million yuan [2][10]. - The sales gross margin was 8.28%, down 7.72 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 1.41%, down 3.92 percentage points [2][10]. Product Segments - The revenue from PC products increased by 24.06% year-on-year to 697 million yuan in H1 2024, benefiting from improved sales volumes [5][6]. - The company’s TDI segment generated 1.122 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 14.91% due to weak terminal consumption and market price drops [3][5]. Market Position and Outlook - Cangzhou Dahua is positioned as a leader in TDI production in China, with a production capacity of 160,000 tons and a focus on technological advancements [6][35]. - The company is expected to leverage its scale advantages and mature technology in TDI and PC production to achieve rapid growth in the coming years [35].

2024 年 09 月 06 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 证券分析师： 杨仁文 S0350521120001 yangrw@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 谭瑞峤 S0350521120004 tanrq@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2024H1 业绩稳健增长，出海表现亮眼；2024H2 新品+IP 储备丰富，关注新品周期开启 ——恺英网络（002517）公司动态研究 研究所： 最近一年走势 事件: （1）2024H1 业绩：2024 年 8 月 22 日，公司公告 2024 半年报，2024H1 营收 25.55 亿元，yoy+29.28%；归母净利润 8.09 亿元，yoy+11.72%； 扣非归母净利润 8.01 亿元，yoy+18.55%。 （2）2024 年 9 月 2 日，《盗墓笔记：启程》宣布 9 月 19 日开启首次删 档测试。 投资要点: 2024H1 业绩增长稳健、出海表现亮眼。 （1）2024H1 营收 25.55 亿元，yoy+29.28%；毛利率 82.01%，同比-2.03 pct；归母净利润 8.09 亿元，yoy+11.72%；扣非归母净利润 ...