相对沪深 300 表现 2024/11/01 市场数据 2024/11/01 2024 年 11 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：增持(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2024 年 Q3 毛利率同比提升，经营杠杆助公司 Q3 扣非归母净利润同比高增 87.8% ——中国重汽（000951）2024 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2024 年 10 月 30 日，公司发布 2024 年第三季度报告，前三季度累计实 现营收 335.9 亿元，同比增长 9.2%，其中 Q3 为 91.9 亿元，同比/环比 分别下降 13.2%/29.2%；前三季度累计实现归母净利润 9.3 亿元，同比 增长 42.5%，其中 Q3 为 3.2 亿元，同比增长 97.9%。公司前三季度累计 实现扣非归母净利润 8.6 亿元，同比增长 34.1%，其中 Q3 为 2.7 亿元， 同比增长 87.8%。 投资要点: 表现 1M 3M 12M 2024 年 Q1-Q3 公司营收增速优于行业整体 据中汽协，2024 年 Q1-Q3 重卡 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 profitability improved significantly, with gross margin reaching 26.68%, up 1.17pct YoY and 4.52pct QoQ, and net margin at 14.53%, up 1.04pct YoY and 4.03pct QoQ [2] - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 527 million, up 53.37% YoY and 31.41% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 72 million, up 58.39% YoY and 77.21% QoQ [3] - The company's revenue growth is driven by the gradual release of new production capacity and increased sales from downstream core customers [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 1.685 billion, RMB 2.088 billion, and RMB 2.561 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 36%, 24%, and 23% [6] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 224 million, RMB 270 million, and RMB 332 million in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 37%, 21%, and 23% [6] Financial Performance - The company's Q3 2024 operating income was RMB 527 million, up 53.37% YoY and 31.41% QoQ [3] - The company's Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 72 million, up 58.39% YoY and 77.21% QoQ [3] - The company's Q3 2024 operating expenses ratio was 9.67%, optimized by 0.39pct YoY and 0.97pct QoQ [2] - The company's ROE is expected to be 14%, 15%, and 16% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] - The company's EPS is expected to be RMB 1.22, RMB 1.48, and RMB 1.81 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] Industry and Market Position - The company is a platform-type enterprise in industrial spring manufacturing, benefiting from the increase in electrification penetration, domestic substitution trends, and the release of new production capacity [4] - The company's downstream core customers, such as BYD and Geely, saw Q3 sales increase by 15% and 13% QoQ, respectively [4] - The company's new production capacity projects, including the "New Annual Production of 80 Million High-Performance Springs and Surface Treatment Technical Transformation Project," are expected to be operational by the end of 2024 [4] Valuation and Forecast - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 19.14, 15.88, and 12.93 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to be 2.63, 2.37, and 2.10 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] - The company's P/S ratio is expected to be 2.55, 2.05, and 1.68 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7]

市场数据 2024/11/01 52 周价格区间（元） 12.24-19.46 2024 年 11 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李振方 S0350524080003 lizf@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2024Q3 单季度净利润环比下降，产品结构持续 优化 ——三角轮胎（601163）2024 年三季报点评 事件: 最近一年走势 2024 年 10 月 29 日，三角轮胎公告 2024 年三季度报告：2024 年前三 季度实现营业收入 76.12 亿元，同比-3.28%；实现归母净利润 8.84 亿元， 同比-16.44%；实现扣非归母净利润 7.01 亿元，同比-21.40%；销售毛 利率 18.73%，同比-2.71 个 pct，销售净利率 11.61%，同比-1.83pct； 经营活动现金流净额为 7.65 亿元，同比-41.73%。 2024Q3 单季度，公司 ...

市场数据 2024/11/01 2024 年 11 月 01 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 2024Q3 单季度净利润同比上涨，新项目积极推 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李振方 S0350524080003 lizf@ghzq.com.cn 进 ——聚合顺（605166）2024 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2024 年 10 月 29 日，聚合顺公告 2024 年第三季度报告：2024 年前三季 度实现营业收入 53.33 亿元，同比上升 21.83%；实现归母净利润 2.34 亿元，同比上升 55.58%；实现扣非后归母净利润 2.26 亿元，同比上升 53.93%；销售毛利率 8.40%，同比上升 1.51 个 pct，销售净利率 5.25%， 同比上升 1.45 个 pct；2024 年前三季度公司经营活动产生的现金流净额 为 3.68 亿元。 2024Q3 单季度，公司实现营业收入 18 ...

2024 年 11 月 1 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 前三季度业绩同比+143%，受益"AI+教育"与 鸿蒙发展 ——新开普（300248）2024 年三季报点评 事件: 2024 年 10 月 29 日，公司发布三季度报告： 2024 年前三季度，公司实现营收 5.70 亿元，同比-0.84%；归母净利润 0.10 亿元，同比+142.99%；扣非归母净利润 0.06 亿元。 2024Q3，公司实现营收 2.31 亿元，同比-3.20%；归母净利润 0.30 亿元， 同比+35.77%；扣非归母净利润 0.28 亿元，同比+36.44%。 投资要点: 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/10/31 公司业务稳健推进，2024Q3 归母净利润增速 35.77% 表现 1M 3M 12M 新开普 12.6% 55.2% 10.9% 2024Q3，公司实现营收 2.31 亿元，同比-3.20%；归母净利润 0.30 亿元，同比+35.77%，主要系公司不断加强内部管理，提质降本。 ...

2024 年 11 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | --- | --- | |--------------|-------------------------------------------| | | | | 研究所： | | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 ： | 仲逸涵 S0350123070022 zhongyh@ghzq.com.cn | 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-----------|-------|------------------| | 相对沪深 300 \n表现 | 表现 \n1M | 3M | 2024/11/01 \n12M | | 中国海油 | -7.8% | -5.8% | 43.7% | | 沪深 300 | -3.2% | 13.8% | 8.9% | | 市场数据 | | | 2024/11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346) [1] Core Views - Hengli Petrochemical's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by weak macro demand and fluctuating crude oil prices, leading to a year-on-year decline in net profit [4][5] - The company's new materials projects are gradually being put into production, which is expected to drive future growth [7] - Hengli Petrochemical completed its 2023 cash dividend distribution, emphasizing shareholder returns [8] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Hengli Petrochemical reported revenue of RMB 65.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 59.0% to RMB 1.09 billion [4] - The company's gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 7.78%, down 5.78 percentage points year-on-year [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 177.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.5% to RMB 5.10 billion [4] Product Performance - In Q3 2024, the refining products segment achieved revenue of RMB 33.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with sales volume increasing by 10% to 5.85 million tons [3] - The PTA segment reported revenue of RMB 16.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, with sales volume down 14% to 3.35 million tons [3] - The new materials segment achieved revenue of RMB 10.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with sales volume up 17% to 1.26 million tons [3] Future Outlook - The 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin and new materials project is expected to be fully operational in the second half of 2024, contributing to the company's growth [7] - The company's Suzhou Fenhu base has 12 functional film production lines in operation, with another 12 lines and a lithium battery separator project under construction, expected to be completed by the first half of 2025 [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 255.7 billion, RMB 267.7 billion, and RMB 274.9 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7.015 billion, RMB 9.048 billion, and RMB 10.623 billion [8][9] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 14x, 11x, and 9x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - The P/B ratio is expected to be 1.53x, 1.43x, and 1.33x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - The P/S ratio is forecasted to be 0.38x, 0.36x, and 0.35x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9]

市场数据 2024/11/01 52 周价格区间（元） 4.17-6.98 2024 年 11 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李振方 S0350524080003 lizf@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2024 年前三季度营收同比上涨，越南三期项目 顺利推进 ——贵州轮胎（000589）2024 年三季报点评 事件: 最近一年走势 2024 年 10 月 30 日，贵州轮胎发布 2024 年三季度报告：2024 年前三季 度实现营业收入 78.43 亿元，同比+11.45%；实现归母净利润 5.60 亿元， 同比-10.76%；实现扣非归母净利润 5.40 亿元，同比-13.06%；销售毛利 率 18.58%，同比-3.32 个 pct，销售净利率 7.2%，同比-1.83 个 pct；经 营活动现金流净额为 4.36 亿元，同比减少 6.10 亿元。 2024Q3 单季 ...

Fiscal Deficit Overview - China's fiscal deficit is characterized as "constructive" and "productive," differing from the "consumptive" nature of deficits in Western countries[1] - The fiscal deficit reflects the intensity of fiscal expansion and enhances the flexibility of fiscal policy, facilitating monetary policy transmission and economic quality improvement[1] Historical Context of Fiscal Deficit - Before 1980, China's economic development relied on balanced budgets with minimal borrowing[2] - From 1950 to 1958, China issued six bonds totaling 3.84 billion yuan, with total repayment including interest reaching 4.82 billion yuan by 1968[17] - In 1981, China resumed issuing government bonds, with the scale exceeding 4 billion yuan, marking the beginning of using fiscal deficits as a regulatory tool[18] Fiscal Deficit Control and Policy Shifts - From 1995, central public budgets were prohibited from listing deficits, and local governments were barred from issuing bonds[3] - The 1994 Budget Law formalized these restrictions, emphasizing balanced budgets and prohibiting local deficits[20] - In 2014, the revised Budget Law allowed local governments to issue bonds, marking a shift towards a more proactive fiscal stance[22] Fiscal Deficit Rate and Its Determinants - The fiscal deficit rate is calculated as (fiscal expenditure - fiscal revenue) / GDP, with China historically keeping it below 3%[26] - Key factors influencing the fiscal deficit rate include economic growth rate, debt ratio, and debt maturity structure[28][29][30] International Comparisons and 3% Deficit Rate Threshold - The 3% deficit rate threshold originates from the Maastricht Treaty, which EU countries often exceed during economic crises[31] - The U.S. federal government's fiscal deficit rate has averaged 3.8% over the past 40 years, with 24 years exceeding 3%[32] - Germany has also exceeded the 3% threshold in 13 out of 33 years since reunification, particularly during economic downturns[34] Broader Measures of Fiscal Deficit - Narrow fiscal deficit rate, reflecting general public budget deficits, rose to 4.6% in 2023, up 3 percentage points from 2012[37] - Broad fiscal deficit rate, including government fund budgets and local special bonds, reached 7.7% in 2023[38] - IMF's broader fiscal deficit rate includes hidden local debts and other off-budget items, providing a more comprehensive view[38]

| --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------|--------------------------------------| | | | | | 研究所： | | | | 证券分析师： | | 罗琨 S0350522110003 | | 联系人 | ： | luok@ghzq.com.cn 禹露 S0350124070012 | | | | yul06@ghzq.com.cn | 最近一年走势 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/11/01 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|--------|--------|--------------| | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 铂力特 | -13.4% | -13.2% | -42.8% | | 沪深 300 | -3.2% | 13.8% | 8.9% | | 市场数据 | | | 2024/11/01 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 45.23 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 37.11-122.00 | | 总市值（百万） ...