Group 1: Company Insights - Huace Testing expects a net profit of 1.013-1.021 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10%-11% [4] - The company anticipates a Q4 net profit of 201-209 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15%-20% year-on-year [5] - The company is focusing on strategic mergers and international expansion, which will gradually release growth momentum [5] Group 2: Military Industry Developments - Major military groups in China have held annual meetings to set goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan and outline key tasks for 2026 [7] - China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation emphasizes breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology and the development of commercial aerospace [8] - China Commercial Aircraft Corporation is advancing the C919 aircraft's certification and commercial operations, with growing interest from Southeast Asian countries [9] Group 3: Cross-Border E-commerce Performance - The global cross-border e-commerce market is projected to reach 551.23 billion USD by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.44% from 2025 to 2034 [13] - Jihua Co. expects a net profit of 272-291 million yuan for 2025, a significant increase of 50%-60% year-on-year [13] - Huakai Yibai anticipates a net profit of 132-162 million yuan for 2025, with improved inventory management leading to a recovery in gross margin [13] Group 4: Coal Industry Trends - In Q4 2025, coal sector holdings in actively managed funds increased to 0.36%, indicating a low level of crowding and significant value [17] - The coal price is expected to be supported by tight supply and demand conditions, with a potential upward trend in the price center [19] - Major coal companies are initiating buybacks and asset injection plans, reflecting confidence in the sector's growth and stability [20] Group 5: Banking Sector Performance - Industrial Bank expects a revenue growth of 0.24% and a net profit growth of 0.34% for 2025, with asset quality remaining stable [22] - The bank's asset scale is projected to exceed 11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.57% [23] - The non-performing loan ratio is stable at 1.08%, with significant reductions in new non-performing loans in key sectors [23] Group 6: Renewable Energy and Technology - Mingyang Smart Energy plans to acquire Dehua Chip, a leader in satellite energy systems, to enhance its capabilities in space photovoltaic technology [25] - The space photovoltaic market is expected to grow significantly, with Mingyang's revenue projected to reach 40.879 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 51% year-on-year increase [27] - The company aims to leverage its existing technologies to create synergies with Dehua Chip, enhancing its competitive position in the market [27] Group 7: Robotics Industry Developments - Tesla plans to start selling its humanoid robot Optimus by the end of next year, with ongoing testing to ensure reliability and safety [33] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see significant growth, with over 140 companies and more than 330 products launched in 2025 [40] - Microsoft has launched its first robot-specific AI model, Rho-alpha, which enhances the adaptability and reliability of robots [41]

2026 年 01 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 唐锦珂 S0350125070014 tangjk@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 预计 2025 年营收同比增长约 25%，盈利能力稳 步上升 ——飞荣达（300602）2025 年度业绩预告点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 表现 300 | | 2026/01/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 飞荣达 | | 10.0% | 13.8% | 75.8% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 34.75 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 15.59-38.20 | | 总市值（百万） | 20,219.75 | | 流通市值（百万） | 13,740.28 | | 总股本（万股） | ...

研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2025Q4 单季度营收增速达到 16%，灵活调整金 2026 年 01 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 融资产结构 ——南京银行（601009）2025 年业绩快报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | 2026/01/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 南京银行 | | -8.9% | -7.6% | 2.2% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 10.35 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 9.91-12.20 | | 总市值（百万） | 127,962.92 | | 流通市值（百万） | 127,962.92 | | 总股本（万股 ...

Report Information - Report Date: January 25, 2026 [1] - Report Title: Bond Research Weekly Report: "Short Squeeze" in 30-Year Treasury Bonds [2] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [6] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The bond market was strong from January 19th to 23rd, with the 30-year Treasury bond standing out. The yield of the active bond 2500006 dropped nearly 5bp, mainly on the 20th and 21st. There was a "short squeeze" in the 30-year Treasury bond market [7][13]. - The "short squeeze" was triggered by short sellers covering their positions due to the downward trend of interest rates. The high bond lending volume at the beginning of the week and the non - exceeding - expectation of the press conference on Tuesday led to a downward trend in interest rates, and the short - covering by securities firms exacerbated the decline [7][13]. - The "short squeeze" can be verified from multiple perspectives, including the trading volume hitting a new high, event - driven and short - covering on the 20th, fund chasing on the 21st, and the spread strategy being one of the reasons for the increase in bond lending volume [7][14]. - In the future, the trading volume in the bond market will remain strong, and the spread strategy may become more popular. If the interest rate of new bonds is high after issuance, the current active bonds may be lent and sold more, and attention should be paid to the upward risk of interest rates. If the interest rate does not rise, attention should be paid to the excess buying power brought by short - covering after the downward signal of interest rates [8][15]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market was strong from January 19th to 23rd, with the 30-year Treasury bond being prominent. The yield of the active bond 2500006 dropped nearly 5bp, mainly on the 20th and 21st. There was a "short squeeze" in the 30-year Treasury bond market. The "short squeeze" was caused by short sellers covering their positions due to the downward trend of interest rates, and the short - covering by securities firms exacerbated the decline [7][13]. - The "short squeeze" can be verified from four perspectives: after the lending volume hit a new high, the trading volume was difficult to push down the price; on the 20th, the event and short - covering drove the 30-year Treasury bond yield down rapidly; on the 21st, fund chasing made the 30-year Treasury bond continue to be strong; the spread strategy may be one of the reasons for the increase in bond lending volume, and the spread between 260002 and 2500006 narrowed from 8.4bp on January 15th to 4.7bp on January 23rd [7][14][15]. 2. Bond Yield Curve Tracking 2.1 Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes - As of January 23rd, compared with January 19th, the 1Y Treasury bond yield dropped 0.65bp to 1.28%, the 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped 0.95bp to 1.83%, and the 30Y Treasury bond yield dropped 5.46bp to 2.29%. The spread between the 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds dropped 4.51bp to 45.73bp, and the spread between the 10Y China Development Bank bond and 10Y Treasury bond dropped 3.57bp to 14.37bp [16]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Maturity Spread Changes - As of January 23rd, compared with January 19th, the 3Y - 1Y Treasury bond spread dropped 2.02bp to 18.62bp, the 5Y - 3Y spread dropped 0.13bp to 18.13bp, the 7Y - 5Y spread dropped 0.17bp to 10.59bp, the 10Y - 7Y spread rose 1.84bp to 12.66bp, the 20Y - 10Y spread rose 0.81bp to 42.10bp, and the 30Y - 20Y spread rose 1.96bp to 4.02bp [17]. 3. Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.1 Bank - to - Bank Pledged Repurchase Balance - As of January 23rd, compared with January 19th, the bank - to - bank pledged repurchase balance dropped 0.20pct to 12.35 billion yuan [20]. 3.2 Bank - to - Bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio Change - As of January 23rd, compared with January 19th, the bank - to - bank bond market leverage ratio dropped 0.26pct to 107.38% [21]. 3.3 Pledged Repurchase Transaction Volume - From January 19th to January 23rd, the average daily pledged repurchase transaction volume was 8.57 trillion yuan, and the average daily overnight pledged repurchase transaction volume was about 7.75 trillion yuan, with an average overnight transaction ratio of 90.49% [26][29]. 3.4 Bank - to - Bank Funding Operation Situation - From January 19th to January 23rd, bank funding supply first decreased and then increased. As of January 23rd, large - scale banks' net funding supply was 5.10 trillion yuan, small - and medium - scale banks' net funding demand was 0.41 trillion yuan, and the net funding supply of the banking system was 4.69 trillion yuan. As of January 23rd, DR001 was 1.3983%, DR007 was 1.4935%, R001 was 1.4654%, and R007 was 1.5360% [30]. 4. Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 4.1 Median Duration of Bond Funds - As of January 23rd, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds (de - leveraged) was 2.62 years, up 0.02 years compared with January 19th; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.73 years, up 0.01 years compared with January 19th [39]. 4.2 Median Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds - As of January 23rd, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.54 years, down 0.06 years compared with January 19th; the median duration of credit - bond funds (including leverage) was 2.51 years, up 0.02 years compared with January 19th. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (de - leveraged) was 3.31 years, up 0.02 years compared with January 19th; the median duration of credit - bond funds (de - leveraged) was 2.41 years, up 0.01 years compared with January 19th [45]. 5. Bond Lending Balance Change - As of January 23rd, compared with January 19th, the borrowing volume of 10Y China Development Bank bonds fluctuated [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report The report points out that since the beginning of the year, the overall performance of credit bonds has been outstanding, and investors are generally bullish on credit bonds. It also analyzes potential investment opportunities and risks, suggesting continuing short - term coupon strategies, leveraging to increase returns, and being cautious about chasing long - term Tier 2 capital bonds. It maintains the view that interest - rate bonds will experience short - term fluctuations [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event Review - Since the beginning of the year, the overall performance of credit bonds has been excellent, with high trading sentiment. The credit spreads of various grades and maturities within 5 years are mostly at relatively low levels in the past year. For example, the spreads of 3 - year AAA and AA+ medium - and short - term notes over China Development Bank bonds are 14.5bp and 22.5bp respectively, at the 4% and 6% quantiles in the past year, and the 5 - year quantiles are as low as 2% and 1% [4]. Investment Highlights - **Increased demand for long - term general credit bonds due to the opening of amortized bond funds**: Starting this year, amortized bond funds with a closed - end period of more than 3 years will gradually open. The cumulative opening scale of those with a maturity of over 5 years this year is about 212.5 billion yuan, with 183.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, mainly concentrated in the first quarter. From January 17th, for three consecutive weeks, the weekly opening scale has been over 20 billion yuan, which is expected to boost the allocation demand for general credit bonds with a maturity of around 5 years. The opening windows of products with a 3 - to 5 - year closed - end period (mainly 3 years) are mainly concentrated in the second and third quarters, with an expected 216.9 billion yuan of amortized bond funds opening, 111.7 billion yuan in the second quarter and 105.2 billion yuan in the third quarter, peaking in May and July with monthly opening scales of 59.6 billion yuan and 49.6 billion yuan respectively [4]. - **Valuation repair opportunities for the constituent bonds of oversold science and technology innovation bond ETFs**: As of January 23rd, the total scale of credit bond ETFs is 52.928 billion yuan, a 13.9% decrease from the end of last month. The science and technology innovation bond ETFs and benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs have decreased by 6.003 billion yuan and 1.786 billion yuan respectively. The year - end impulse funds are still withdrawing, causing selling pressure on science and technology innovation bonds. After the new year, the valuation has generally increased, and some science and technology innovation bonds have been oversold. As of January 23rd, the premium of the constituent bonds of science and technology innovation bond ETFs over ordinary bonds is as low as 3.3bp, breaking the low level in mid - and early December last year (5.0bp) and reaching the lowest level since July 2025 [4]. - **Sustainability of the mid - and long - term Tier 2 capital bond market**: Since the beginning of the year, mid - and long - term Tier 2 capital bonds have had a strong market due to the implementation of the new redemption rules and increased allocation by insurance institutions. As of January 23rd, the yield to maturity of 5 - year AAA - Tier 2 capital bonds has decreased by about 7.4bp this year, and the credit spread over China Development Bank bonds has narrowed to 35.1bp. However, the sustainability of the mid - and long - term Tier 2 capital bond market remains to be observed for three reasons: the current valuation is at a phased high, reducing the odds of going long; after the implementation of IFRS9 for insurance institutions and the end of the second - generation solvency transition period, the fair - value changes of Tier 2 capital bonds will be included in the current profit and loss, and the risk factors are not favorable, so their trading nature is greater than the allocation nature for insurance, and the volatility of Tier 2 capital bonds may increase; January is a big month for insurance institutions' premium income, but the sustainability of the market depends on the subsequent premium income. If it returns to normal, the sustainability of the mid - and long - term Tier 2 capital bond market may fall short of expectations [4][5]. Investment Suggestions - Maintain the view that interest - rate bonds will experience short - term fluctuations. In the coupon strategy, continue to match short - term coupons with leverage to increase returns, and explore opportunities in mid - and long - term general credit bonds and oversold science and technology innovation bond constituents under the opening of amortized bond funds. Be vigilant about the risk of chasing high for long - term Tier 2 capital bonds. In terms of duration, it is recommended to use medium - and short - term products within 5 years as the foundation, and operate mid - and long - term products mainly through band trading. Do not lengthen the portfolio duration in advance before the bond market is in a favorable period [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent tensions in Sino-Japanese relations are expected to accelerate the domestic substitution of Japanese semiconductor materials, as Japan holds a significant market share in this sector while domestic production rates are relatively low [3] - The chemical industry in China is anticipated to undergo a revaluation due to anti-involution measures, which are likely to slow down global capacity expansion significantly. This shift could enhance the dividend yield potential of Chinese chemical companies, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to cash-generating ones [4] - The report highlights four major investment opportunities: low-cost expansion, improved industry sentiment, new materials, and high dividend yields [8][9][10] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - Key targets for semiconductor material substitution include: 1) Photoresists: Dinglong Co., Yanggu Huatai, Tongcheng New Materials, and others 2) Wet electronic chemicals: Jianghua Micro, Greenland, and others 3) Electronic gases: Haohua Technology, Juhua Co., and others 4) Mask plates: Qingyi Optoelectronics, Luwei Optoelectronics 5) CMP polishing liquids and pads: Anji Technology, Dinglong Co., Jiangfeng Electronics 6) Sputtering targets: Jiangfeng Electronics, Longhua Technology, and others [3] Industry Performance - The chemical industry has shown strong performance with a 1-month increase of 16.5%, a 3-month increase of 23.4%, and a 12-month increase of 53.9% compared to the CSI 300 index [6] Key Product Price Analysis - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased by 15% week-on-week to 13,800 RMB/ton, driven by maintenance at lithium salt plants and optimistic demand forecasts in the energy storage sector [12] - Pure benzene price rose by 7.96% week-on-week to approximately 5,965 RMB/ton, influenced by reduced imports and strong domestic demand [12] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report includes a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several firms in the chemical sector, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2024 to 2026 [28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating has been upgraded to "Recommended" [1][10] Core Insights - The demand for solar energy in space is expected to surge, with significant equipment orders anticipated to materialize [3][7] - The shift from traditional power sources to computational infrastructure in space is likely to create new application scenarios for crystalline silicon batteries [7] - The U.S. domestic solar capacity is currently insufficient, with only 5.0 GW for silicon wafers, 3.2 GW for solar cells, and 64.8 GW for modules, indicating a substantial capacity gap [7] - Elon Musk's plan for 100 GW of solar capacity in space and another 100 GW on the ground is expected to drive high demand for solar production equipment [7][10] - The global satellite layout is accelerating, with a projected 329 rocket launches and 4,522 satellite launches in 2025, marking increases of 25% and 58% respectively [7] - Space solar power is identified as the only reliable energy source for satellites, with solar wings accounting for 60% of satellite energy system costs [7][8] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The photovoltaic equipment sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 12-month performance of 59.5% compared to 23.6% for the index [5] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on solar equipment suppliers such as Maiwei Co., Jiejia Weichuang, and Aotwei, as well as battery suppliers like Junda Co. and Dongfang Risheng [10][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the future development of the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate their long-term growth. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials leads to one generation of industries," highlighting the foundational nature of the new materials industry as the material basis for other industries [4][15]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Electronic Information Sector - Focus areas include semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [5]. - Recent developments include TSMC's plan to increase investment in advanced packaging technology, aiming to upgrade existing InFO equipment and establish a new WMCM production line, with a target capacity of approximately 60,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 [6][40]. 2. Aerospace Sector - Key materials of interest are PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers [7]. - The successful launch of the Long March 12 rocket, which deployed 19 low-orbit satellites, demonstrates the capabilities of China's aerospace technology [8][50]. 3. New Energy Sector - Focus areas include photovoltaics, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials [9]. - By the end of 2025, China's power storage capacity is projected to reach 213.3 GW, a year-on-year increase of 54%, with new energy storage accounting for over two-thirds of this capacity [10]. 4. Biotechnology Sector - Key areas include synthetic biology and scientific services [11]. - Significant advancements in agricultural biotechnology were reported, including breakthroughs in crop genetic improvement and the development of new wheat varieties [12]. 5. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Focus areas include adsorption resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [13]. - The government has initiated projects to support equipment upgrades across various sectors, with a total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [14]. 6. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report highlights several key companies with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2023 to 2025, indicating a generally positive outlook for the new materials sector [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates a decrease in risk aversion and a slowdown in inventory accumulation, suggesting a more favorable macroeconomic environment for the aluminum sector [6][10] - The aluminum price is expected to remain volatile at high levels, with a long-term outlook indicating limited supply growth against a backdrop of increasing demand [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 23, 2026, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $3173.5 per ton, up $39.5 from the previous week, marking a 1.3% week-on-week increase and a 20.6% year-on-year increase [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 24290.0 CNY per ton, up 365.0 CNY from the previous week, reflecting a 1.5% week-on-week increase and a 19.6% year-on-year increase [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 24130.0 CNY per ton, up 130.0 CNY week-on-week, representing a 0.5% increase and a 19.5% year-on-year increase [22] 2. Production - In December 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 378.1 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.4 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [55] - The production of alumina in December 2025 was 752.0 million tons, up 8.0 million tons month-on-month and up 2.5% year-on-year [55] 3. Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 743,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 7,000 tons, indicating a slight slowdown in inventory accumulation [7] - The report notes that the overall inventory levels have not peaked, suggesting ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the market [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies highlighted include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yunnan Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2026 [5] - China Hongqiao's stock price was 32.16 CNY with an EPS forecast of 2.77 CNY for 2026, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.6 [5] 5. Demand - The report indicates that downstream demand remains subdued, with only essential purchases being made due to high aluminum prices and a seasonal demand lull [7] - The overall operating rate for aluminum processing was recorded at 60.9%, showing a slight increase but indicating mixed performance across different segments [7]

2026 年 01 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李振方 S0350524080003 | | | lizf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2025 年公司归母净利润同比大幅提升，看好制 冷剂景气持续 ——巨化股份（600160）2025 年业绩预增点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 巨化股份 | | 4.4% | 9.9% | 55.6% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | ...