2025 年 04 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 祝玉波 S0350523120005 zhouyb01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 张晋铭 S0350124040003 zhangjm02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 吞吐量稳健增长，看好成长逐步兑现 ——北部湾港（000582）2024 年年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北部湾港 | 4.1% | 3.6% | 13.8% | | 沪深 300 | -3.4% | -0.9% | 5.5% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/28 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 8.84 | | 当前价格（元） | 8.84 | | --- | --- | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 6.77-11.50 | | 总市值（百万） | 20,563.04 | | 流通市值（百万） | 15,999.19 | | 总股本（万股） | ...

[Table_Title] 配套设备扩展成效显著， 2025 年 04 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 投资要点: Q4 经营性现金流同比大增 | 市场数据 | 2025/04/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 16.75 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 15.28-24.58 | | 总市值（百万） | 9,655.65 | | 流通市值（百万） | 9,581.79 | | 总股本（万股） | 57,645.70 | | 流通股本（万股） | 57,204.74 | | 日均成交额（百万） | 30.42 | | 近一月换手（%） | 0.65 | 相关报告 | 《景津装备（603279）2024 年中报点评：Q2 毛 | | --- | | 利率下降影响业绩，经营性净现金流同比大增（买 | | 入）*环保设备Ⅱ*钟琪》——2024-08-27 | | 《景津装备（603279）2023 年&2024Q1 业绩点评： | | 配件及配套设备利润增速亮眼，现金流修复明显 | | （买入）*环保设备Ⅱ*钟琪》——2024-04-26 | | 《景津装备（603279 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 2.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.8% [5] - The company is entering a peak period for both orders and deliveries, with a record order backlog of 18.9 billion yuan as of April 21, 2025 [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic offshore wind development and the realization of overseas orders [6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280 million yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year, and a non-net profit of 270 million yuan, up 28.2% year-on-year [5] - The revenue from submarine cables and high-voltage cables increased by 219% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [6] - The company’s revenue from power engineering and equipment cables was 885 million yuan, a 53% increase year-on-year [6] Order Backlog and Future Prospects - The order backlog reached a new high of 18.9 billion yuan, with 11.5 billion yuan in submarine and high-voltage cable orders [6] - The company has significant upcoming projects, including 500kV and DC submarine cable orders totaling 5 billion yuan, which are expected to drive profitability in 2025 and 2026 [6] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.86 billion yuan, 14.01 billion yuan, and 16.84 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.73 billion yuan, 2.18 billion yuan, and 2.73 billion yuan [8][9]

2025 年 04 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 邱迪 S0350522010002 qiud@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李航 S0350521120006 lih11@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] Q1 业绩超市场预期，盈利能力大幅回升 ——新强联（300850）2024 年报&2025 年一季 报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 新强联 | | 15.6% | 49.8% | 51.6% | | 沪深 300 | | -3.7% | -1.2% | 7.3% | | 市场数据 | 2025/04/25 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 30.58 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 13.68-32.88 | | 总市值（百万） | 10,970.43 | | 流通市值（百万） | 7,505.74 | | 总股本（万股） | 35,874. ...

2025 年 04 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈云 S0350524070001 cheny17@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 一季度业绩同比大幅提升，矿建加速推进 ——亚钾国际（000893）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 亚钾国际 | 14.3% | 51.4% | 56.6% | | 沪深 300 | -3.7% | -1.2% | 7.3% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/25 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 29.22 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 13.65-29.30 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 27,000.78 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year increase in coal production and sales in 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating resilience in performance despite market challenges [6][8] - The company's revenue for 2024 was CNY 184.145 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 22.36 billion, a decrease of 3.21% [5][6] - The report highlights a high dividend policy and anticipates stable business growth, with a projected EPS of CNY 1.91 for 2025 [8][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a coal production of 170.4846 million tons, up 4.13% year-on-year, and coal sales of 258.4308 million tons, up 9.13% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, coal production was 43.9377 million tons, a 6.00% increase year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales at 39.5467 million tons, up 5.81% [6] Pricing and Costs - The average selling price of self-produced coal in 2024 was CNY 532 per ton, down CNY 59.05 per ton (-10.0%) year-on-year, while the unit cost was CNY 260.2 per ton, a decrease of 1.6% [6] - The overall gross margin for the coal business decreased due to falling prices [6] Power Generation - The total power generation in 2024 was 37.615 billion kWh, an increase of 4.41% year-on-year, while the total sales volume was 35.126 billion kWh, also up 4.37% [6] - The average selling price for electricity was CNY 399.23 per MWh, down 4.8% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of CNY 2.29 billion, a decrease of 21.78% [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are CNY 163.777 billion, CNY 172.651 billion, and CNY 182.248 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be CNY 18.535 billion, CNY 19.425 billion, and CNY 20.711 billion [8][9] - The report anticipates a stable business environment with a high dividend yield, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was under pressure, with revenue of 7.772 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.59% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 707 million yuan, down 33.65% year-on-year and 17.20% quarter-on-quarter. The decline in sales of organic amines and acetic acid significantly impacted revenue and profit [8][12] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to benefit from lower coal prices, which may reduce costs and improve performance in the future [8][12] - The company is actively advancing its construction projects, which are expected to provide new growth momentum [11][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 77.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.06 billion yuan year-on-year and 12.74 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter. Gross profit was 12.71 billion yuan, down 4.75 billion yuan year-on-year and 0.95 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.07 billion yuan, down 3.58 billion yuan year-on-year and 1.47 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [8][12] - The company's sales volume for fertilizers reached 1.4533 million tons, an increase of 36.74% year-on-year but a decrease of 3.91% quarter-on-quarter. Organic amines and acetic acid saw significant declines in sales volume [8][12] Market Conditions - The average price of urea in Q1 2025 was 1,734 yuan/ton, down 22% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter. The average price of acetic acid was 2,762 yuan/ton, down 8% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter [8][12] - The company’s main product prices are currently experiencing low volatility, but the significant drop in coal prices is expected to improve the company's performance in the coming quarters [10][12] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 37.5 billion yuan, 41.2 billion yuan, and 45.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 4.46 billion yuan, 5.01 billion yuan, and 5.72 billion yuan for the same years. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 10, 9, and 8 times [12][14] - The ongoing construction projects are expected to enhance the company's growth potential, supporting the positive outlook [11][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts a 385.3 billion yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to a significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing. Despite the large gap, considering the central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market, the money market interest rate is expected to remain loose in May. The DR007 central rate is expected to decline, driving down short - term bond yields [6][21][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 5 - Month Liquidity Gap Prediction Analysis - **Factor 1: Government Debt Issuance and Fund Allocation** - In May, the net financing scale of government debt is expected to increase significantly compared to April, with a potential impact on the money market. The estimated net financing scale of national debt in May is 609.3 billion yuan, a 343.6 - billion - yuan increase from April, and the proportion of ultra - long national debt issuance may rise. The estimated new local debt in May is 516.7 billion yuan, a 263.3 - billion - yuan increase from April. The total government debt supply scale in May may reach 1.13 trillion yuan, a 606.9 - billion - yuan increase from April [8][10]. - **Factor 2: Regular Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure** - Historically, May is usually a month of fiscal net expenditure, but the scale is small. Excluding the impact of "tax refund for excess input VAT" in 2022, the average net fiscal expenditure from 2020 - 2021 and 2023 - 2024 was 11.57 billion yuan, which is used to estimate the fiscal net income in May 2025 and will supplement the money market [14]. - **Factor 3: Credit Delivery** - May is not a peak month for credit delivery, so the impact on liquidity consumption is small. Given the improvement in credit delivery indicated by the increase in the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount rate in late April and the high year - on - year growth rate of "deposits subject to reserve requirements" in March 2025, it is assumed that the growth rate will drop to 6.5% in May, and the required reserve for deposits will increase by 7.22 billion yuan, supplementing the corresponding liquidity [17][18]. - **Factor 4: Changes in M0 and Foreign Exchange Holdings** - After the May Day holiday, residents' cash flows back to the banking system, and historically, the M0 scale in May usually decreases month - on - month, supplementing 9.76 billion yuan of liquidity. The change in foreign exchange holdings in May is assumed to be the average of the previous three months, with a potential consumption of 6.39 billion yuan of liquidity [20]. - **Summary** - After comprehensive calculation of the above four factors, there is expected to be a 385.3 - billion - yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to the significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing [21]. Outlook on Short - Term Bonds - The central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market can be observed from two aspects: the decline in the money market interest rate near the end of April, indicating low cross - month pressure; and the 50 - billion - yuan net MLF injection in April, a significant increase from before. - The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and other measures. It is expected that monetary policy will cooperate, the money market will remain loose, the DR007 central rate will decline, and short - term bond yields will follow suit [22][24][26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that in Q1 2025, the company experienced a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit, with revenue at 38.4 billion yuan (down 15.4%) and net profit at 4 billion yuan (down 20%) [4][5] - The coal production and sales showed slight growth, with production at 33.35 million tons (up 1.9%) and sales at 64.14 million tons (up 0.4%) [5] - The report emphasizes the improvement in coal chemical business margins, with overall coal chemical gross profit increasing by 8% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a return on equity (ROE) of 2.58%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 18% to 492 yuan per ton, with specific prices for thermal coal and coking coal at 454 yuan (down 11.7%) and 922 yuan (down 39.1%) respectively [5] - The gross profit margin for self-produced coal was 45.2%, down 6 percentage points year-on-year [5] Coal Business - The company produced 33.35 million tons of commodity coal in Q1 2025, with sales of 64.14 million tons [5] - The sales volume of thermal coal and coking coal was 30.02 million tons (up 1.4%) and 2.66 million tons (down 1.5%) respectively [5] Coal Chemical Business - The report indicates significant improvements in unit profitability for polyethylene, polypropylene, and methanol, with gross profits per ton increasing by 85 yuan, 235 yuan, and 446 yuan respectively [5] - The sales volume for polyethylene and polypropylene was 178,000 tons (down 6.8%) and 177,000 tons (down 2.7%) respectively [5] - The overall gross profit for the coal chemical business was 862.6 million yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue of 168.88 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 11%, followed by a 5% growth in the subsequent years [7][9] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 16.21 billion yuan, down 16% from the previous year, with an expected recovery in the following years [7][9] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's ability to generate stable earnings due to its high long-term contract ratio and ongoing projects in coal mining and chemical sectors [8][9]