Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Horizon Robotics-W (09660 HK) with a target price of HKD 3 72 [1] Core Views - Horizon Robotics is positioned to benefit from the global intelligent driving market which is expected to grow to a trillion-level market size The company provides cost-effective integrated hardware and software solutions to OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers making it well-positioned to capitalize on the trend of intelligent driving technology penetration into lower-tier markets [4][6] - The company's valuation is based on projected revenues of RMB 2 375 billion RMB 3 561 billion and RMB 5 954 billion for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively with corresponding PS ratios of 19 1x 12 7x and 7 6x [6] Industry Overview - The global intelligent driving market is expected to grow significantly with the adoption of end-to-end autonomous driving technology The market size for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and high-level autonomous driving solutions is projected to increase from RMB 619 billion in 2023 to RMB 10 172 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 49% [9] - End-to-end autonomous driving which uses neural network models to replace traditional modular designs is expected to drive the market forward with significant improvements in data processing efficiency and deployment lightweighting [9] Company Analysis - Horizon Robotics has established itself as a leading provider of intelligent driving solutions in China with a 35 9% market share in the domestic OEM ADAS solutions market in the first half of 2024 [75] - The company's hardware and software integrated solutions cover a wide range of applications from low to high-end autonomous driving with products like Horizon Mono Horizon Pilot and Horizon SuperDrive [20] - Horizon Robotics has a strong R&D team with over 1 500 employees in intelligent driving hardware and software development and has accumulated more than 1 900 global intellectual property rights [23] Financial Performance - Horizon Robotics' revenue has shown rapid growth with revenues of RMB 4 67 billion RMB 9 06 billion RMB 15 52 billion and RMB 9 35 billion for 2021 2022 2023 and the first half of 2024 respectively [29] - Despite being in a loss-making phase the company's net loss has been narrowing with net losses of RMB 20 64 billion RMB 87 20 billion RMB 67 39 billion and RMB 50 98 billion for the same periods [31] Competitive Landscape - Horizon Robotics is competing with global leaders like NVIDIA and Tesla in the intelligent driving domain control chip market In 2024 Horizon's Journey 5 and Journey 3 chips achieved market shares of 5 4% and 2 5% respectively in China [66] - The company's Journey 6P chip with a computing power of 560 TOPS surpasses NVIDIA's Orin-X and Tesla's FSD 4 0 in performance positioning Horizon as a strong competitor in the high-end market [73] Future Outlook - Horizon Robotics is expected to benefit from the trend of high-end intelligent driving technology penetrating into the mid-tier market particularly in vehicles priced below RMB 200 000 The company's cost-effective solutions are well-suited for this segment [83] - The company's Horizon SuperDrive solution combined with the Journey 6 chip offers a high-performance intelligent driving system that is expected to drive future growth [85]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [30]. Core Viewpoints - The first version of the "Category C" directory for medical insurance is expected to be released in 2025, which will support the reimbursement of innovative drugs by commercial insurance. This directory will serve as a supplement to the basic medical insurance drug list, focusing on innovative drugs with significant clinical value that are currently not included in the insurance directory [20][23]. - The combination of "medical insurance + commercial insurance" is anticipated to alleviate payment pressures, providing new market opportunities for innovative drugs and encouraging pharmaceutical companies to develop high-value, innovative medications [22][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index rose by 2.67% from January 13 to January 17, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.53 percentage points during the same period [11]. - All sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical and biological industry saw an increase, with notable performances in biological products, medical devices, chemical pharmaceuticals, and medical services [12]. Supporting Points for Rating - The "Category C" directory is expected to enhance the reimbursement scope and rates for commercial insurance, addressing the previous challenges of information asymmetry in pricing and product design for innovative drugs [20][22]. - The directory will provide a buffer for innovative drugs entering the market, reducing the economic burden on patients and facilitating quicker acceptance and usage of these drugs [23]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with stable growth, such as medical devices and pharmaceuticals, which have already experienced price adjustments and have a relatively stable competitive landscape. Recommended companies include Sanyou Medical, Aikang Medical, and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical [23]. - The CXO sector and medical equipment sector are expected to see a turnaround in 2025 due to favorable domestic financing and fiscal policies. Recommended companies include Yangguang Nuohuo and Mindray Medical [23]. - In the innovative field, attention should be given to companies that are entering the market or experiencing sales growth, such as Innovent Biologics and Betta Pharmaceuticals [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, indicating expectations for the industry index to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [50]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 2.79% increase in the first two trading weeks of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.80 percentage points [1][9]. - The recovery in social retail consumption is steady, with expectations for further growth in resident income and consumer confidence in 2025 [2][39]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to drive travel demand, with an estimated 9 billion trips anticipated during the holiday period [2][28]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector ranked 11th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification during the reporting period [1][9]. - The sub-sectors showing positive performance include Education (+5.29%), Professional Services (+3.10%), and Tourism & Scenic Areas (+2.99%) [15]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024 reached approximately 48.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [2][28]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong performance growth potential include Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others in the travel chain and related industries [2][39]. - Hotel brands benefiting from business travel recovery include Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and ShouLai Hotel [2][39]. - The recovery of cross-border travel is expected to boost airport duty-free sales, with recommendations to focus on China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [2][39]. Company Dynamics & Announcements - China Duty Free Group has successfully bid for the operation rights of six city duty-free stores, expanding its presence to 13 cities [25]. - The hotel search interest surged by 36% due to increased attention from overseas users on Chinese social media platforms [25]. - The Spring Festival period is seeing a significant increase in high-star hotel bookings in county-level cities, with some locations experiencing a doubling in reservations [26]. Travel Data Tracking - Domestic travel is recovering post-pandemic, with significant increases in both inbound and outbound travel as policies continue to relax [33]. - The report highlights a notable increase in flight operations, with a 3.32% week-on-week rise in passenger flights [1][9]. Sub-industry Valuation - As of January 17, 2025, the social services industry's PE (TTM) stands at 22.00 times, significantly higher than the CSI 300's PE of 11.91 times [17].

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 1 月 19 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 从三驾马车看 2024 年经济表现 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周 A 股和大宗价格上涨。本周沪深 300 指数上涨 2.14%，沪深 300 股指 期货上涨 2.01%；焦煤期货本周上涨 7.15%，铁矿石主力合约本周上涨 6.03%；股份制银行理财预期收益率上涨 3BP 至 1.88%，余额宝 7 天年化 收益率上涨 7BP 至 1.29%；十年国债收益率上行 3BP 至 1.66%，活跃十年 国债期货本周持平。 资产配置建议 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。2024 年我国实际 GDP 累计 同比增长 5.0%，完成了年初制定的经济增长目标。从三驾马车对 GDP 累 计同比贡献率看，消费贡献率 44.5%，对经济增长的贡献率最高，净出口 贡献率 30.3%，仅次于消费，投资贡献率为 25.2%，消费和净出口是拉动 2024 年我国经济增长的主要动力；但与历史数据相比，2024 年三驾马车 的表现有较大差异，相较 2023 年，2024 年消费的贡献率偏 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 1 月 20 日 | 1 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002120.SZ | 韵达股份 | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | | 688085.SH | 三友医疗 | | 000848.SZ | 承德露露 | | 605108.SH | 同庆楼 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250120 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】2024 年 12 月和四季度经济数据点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。2024 年 实际 GDP 同比增长 5.0%，四季度实际 GDP 当季同比增长 5.4%，超出市场 预期；12 月工业增加值和社零增速好于市场预期，固投累计同比增速较 1-11 月小幅下降，但 12 月当月制造业、基建、房地产投资增速都表现相对较好。 【计算机】计算机行业点评*杨思睿 郑静文。2024 年 12 月 6 日，中国最大 的零售数字化解决方案服务商多点数智（2586.HK）在港交所挂牌上市。近 期，提振消费的政策在陆续储备和出台，行业下游需求有望复苏、 ...

Economic Growth - In 2024, the actual GDP growth reached 5.0%, with Q4 GDP growing by 5.4%, exceeding market expectations[1][3] - The contribution to the 2024 GDP growth primarily came from resilient industrial value added, strong external demand, and fiscal support for infrastructure[40] Industrial Performance - In December 2024, industrial added value increased by 6.2% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.5%[10] - The manufacturing sector's cumulative year-on-year growth was 6.1%, while high-tech industries saw an 8.9% increase[10] Consumer Spending - December retail sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales increasing by 4.2%[18] - The per capita disposable income for residents in 2024 was 41,314 yuan, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year growth[34] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was 3.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment rising by 9.2% and infrastructure investment by 4.4%[26] - Real estate investment saw a decline of 10.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[30] Real Estate Market - In December, new residential prices in 70 major cities fell by 5.7%, while second-hand residential prices dropped by 8.1%[32] - The total sales area of commercial housing decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 17.1%[32] Future Outlook - The economic growth target for 2025 is expected to remain at 5%, but uncertainties in external demand and consumer income growth may pose challenges[40] - The implementation of proactive fiscal policies and potential monetary easing are anticipated to support economic stability in 2025[40]

Economic Performance - China's GDP growth in Q4 2024 was 5.4%, up from 4.6% in Q3 2024, indicating a rebound in economic activity[3] - The overall GDP growth for 2024 was 5%, slightly exceeding market expectations[3] Fiscal Policy - In December 2024, local government special bond issuance increased significantly, reaching a historical high, while fiscal deposits saw a record seasonal decline[4] - The increase in fiscal spending is expected to enhance effective demand in the real economy, contributing to economic stability[4] Real Economy Trends - The manufacturing PMI in December 2024 showed signs of decline, indicating weakening self-recovery momentum in the real economy[14] - Weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities fell in early January 2025, raising concerns about future real estate sales trends[14] Export and Trade - The decline in the Southeast Asia shipping container price index in January 2025 suggests potential pressures on future exports from China[14] - Despite stable exports in late 2024, the "export rush" phenomenon may not sustain in 2025, leading to greater downward pressure on exports[14] Currency Stability - The People's Bank of China has adopted a clearer stance on stabilizing the RMB exchange rate amid depreciation pressures[16] - Domestic fiscal policy strength and external depreciation pressures are likely to lead policymakers to prioritize exchange rate stability[16] Bond Market Insights - Long-term bond yields are currently perceived as too low, primarily due to decreased sensitivity of financing rates in the real economy since 2024[20] - Recent data indicates a potential rebound in bond yields as fiscal policy strengthens and financing demand improves[20]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the importance of balancing high-quality development with high shareholder returns, suggesting a focus on large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies under the backdrop of reform and operational performance improvement [1] - It emphasizes the high prosperity of the refrigerant and vitamin industry leading companies, and suggests attention to undervalued industry leaders and light hydrocracking sector leaders due to overall macroeconomic improvement [1] - The report also points out the rapid development of downstream industries, recommending attention to certain electronic materials and new energy materials companies [1] Summary by Sections Industry Performance and Price Changes - In the week of January 13-19, 2025, among 101 tracked chemical products, 48 saw price increases, 26 saw decreases, and 27 remained stable. The average price of 39.6% of products increased month-on-month, while 51.49% decreased [8][9] - The average price of WTI crude oil increased by 1.71% to $77.88 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increased by 1.29% to $80.79 per barrel during the same week [8][9] - The report notes that TDI prices rose by 7.1% to 13,869 CNY/ton, while pure MDI prices increased by 1.61% to 18,600 CNY/ton [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality development and shareholder returns, particularly in large energy state-owned enterprises and oil service companies [9] - It suggests paying attention to leading companies in high-prosperity sectors such as refrigerants and vitamins, as well as undervalued industry leaders and companies in the light hydrocracking sector [9] - The report identifies key investment themes, including the sustained high prices of crude oil, the rapid development of new materials, and the potential for recovery in demand supported by policy [9] Company Highlights - China Petroleum reported a revenue of 2,256.279 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.7% to 132.518 billion CNY [10][11] - The company achieved a net cash inflow from operating activities of 338.928 billion CNY, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 39.5%, the lowest in 14 years [11] - The report forecasts net profits for China Petroleum to be 171.351 billion CNY, 182.556 billion CNY, and 192.094 billion CNY for 2024-2026 [14] Key Stocks - The report identifies "Gold Stocks" for January as China Petroleum and Anji Technology, highlighting their strong performance and growth potential [6][16]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a focus on high-growth sectors such as the AI industry chain and robotics, while also suggesting appropriate rotations within the industry chain [2][3][36] - The current market environment indicates a potential upward trend for A-shares, supported by a relatively loose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus, despite some uncertainties leading up to the Spring Festival [10][24][36] - The human-shaped robot sector is highlighted as having significant potential, with the report suggesting that returns can be divided into Beta and Alpha components, where Beta is influenced by macro factors and Alpha is driven by specific catalysts [25][36][33] Group 2 - The report notes a general recovery in market sentiment, with technology sectors, particularly the computer and robotics industries, showing strong performance [24][36] - The analysis of the real estate sector indicates a marginal recovery in sales, but comprehensive recovery across the entire real estate chain is still pending, with significant declines in new construction and investment [30][36] - The report suggests that the recent adjustments in the technology sector are more about repositioning from previously high expectations rather than a fundamental shift in industry trends, with AI and robotics still seen as having substantial upward potential [33][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector, with expectations of price increases in silicon and battery segments due to supply constraints [1]. - The domestic wind power sector is expected to see steady progress in bidding and construction, with improved profitability in the machinery and components segments anticipated for 2025 [1]. - The introduction of the vehicle trade-in policy is expected to boost sales in the new energy vehicle sector, with a projected increase in demand across the supply chain [1]. - The report emphasizes the accelerated development of solid-state battery technology, suggesting that companies involved in battery, materials, and equipment sectors will benefit [1]. - Continued promotion of hydrogen energy policies is expected to enhance the industrialization of hydrogen, with recommendations to focus on companies with cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The electric equipment and new energy sector saw a 3.66% increase this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. - New energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 12.87 million units in 2024, a 35.5% year-on-year increase, with expectations of 16 million units in 2025 [19]. - The report notes a significant increase in battery installation volumes, with a 41.5% year-on-year growth expected in 2024 [19]. Company Updates - Zhongke Electric is expected to report a net profit of 288-325 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 590%-680% [21]. - Longi Green Energy anticipates a net loss of 8.2-8.8 billion yuan for 2024, while Tongwei Co. expects a net loss of 7-7.5 billion yuan [21]. - The report mentions that companies like Huayou Cobalt plan to increase their shareholding, indicating confidence in future performance [21].