电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年3月15日 601138.SH 工业富联 买入 AI 带动盈利提升，“端、网、云”增长动力澎湃 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 22.85 公司发布2023年年度报告，公司营收略降但在AI需求带动下利润创新高， 板块评级:强于大市 维持买入评级。 支撑评级的要点 股价表现  营收稍降不改盈利能力提升，AI服务器引领增长。公司2023年实现收入4763.40 亿元，同比下降6.94%，实现归母净利润210.40亿元，同比增长4.82%，实现扣 126% 非净利202.09亿元，同比增长9.77%。单季度来看，公司23Q4实现营收1475.22 97% 亿元，同比-2.15%/环比+20.88%，归母净利润 75.55 亿元，同比-8.72%/环比 69% +19.48%，扣非净利润66.76亿元，同比-5.49%/环比+11.33%。盈利能力方面，公 40% 司2023年毛利率8.06%，同比+0.79pcts；归母净利率4.42%，同比+0.50pcts；扣 11% 非净利率4.24%，同比+0.65pcts。上述变化主要系：1）全球终端需求放缓，电信 营 ...

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024年3月15日 强于大市 房地产行业 2024 年 2 月 70 个大中城市房价数据点评 70 城房价下行压力仍然较大，二手房房价下跌趋势 放缓 国家统计局发布2024年2月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。70大中城 市新房价格环比下降0.4%；二手房价格环比下降0.6%。 核心观点  2月70大中城市房价下行压力仍然较大，二手房房价下跌趋势放缓。2月70大中城市新房房价环 比下降0.4%，环比降幅与上月持平；二手房房价环比下跌0.6%，环比降幅较上月收窄0.1个百分 点。新房房价已经连续九个月持续下滑；二手房房价已经连续十个月持续下滑。70个大中城市中， 新房房价环比下跌的城市数量有59个，较1月增加了3个，新房房价下跌城市平均跌幅为0.46%， 较1月收窄了0.04个百分点；二手房房价环比下跌的城市数量与1月持平，为68个，仅昆明、无 锡上涨。二手房房价下跌城市平均跌幅为0.65%，较1月收窄了0.05个百分点。虽然房价下跌城 相关研究报告 市的平均跌幅略有收窄，但整体房价下跌城市数量仍处于历史高位。房价下行压力仍然较大，新 房房价方面，2月正值春 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in social financing in February, with an increase of only 1.56 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 trillion yuan less than the previous year and below market expectations [2][14] - The M2 money supply growth remained flat at 8.70% year-on-year, while M1 saw a decrease of 4.7 percentage points, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [3][14] - The real estate market continues to face downward pressure, with new home prices in 70 major cities declining by 0.4% month-on-month and second-hand home prices dropping by 0.6% [4][5] Economic Overview - February's social financing data indicates a slowdown, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2][14] - The structure of corporate loans has improved, but overall credit has contracted, particularly in the residential sector, which has seen a significant reduction in loans [3][14] - The report suggests that government bonds will be the main support for future social financing, as corporate debt issuance has decreased [14] Real Estate Market Analysis - The report notes that the downward trend in housing prices is still significant, with 59 out of 70 cities reporting a decline in new home prices [5][6] - In first-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.3%, with Shanghai showing some resilience as the only city with a price increase of 0.2% [6][19] - The report emphasizes that while the average decline in housing prices has slightly narrowed, the overall number of cities experiencing price drops remains historically high [5][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: state-owned enterprises with solid fundamentals, relatively safe private enterprises, companies with potential for recovery, and those involved in urban renewal or REITs [7][19] - It highlights the importance of monitoring liquidity risks and the potential for policy support to stabilize the real estate market [19]

本报告准确表述了证券分析师的个人观点。该证券分析师声明，本人未在公司内、外部机构兼任有损本人独立性与客 观性的其他职务，没有担任本报告评论的上市公司的董事、监事或高级管理人员；也不拥有与该上市公司有关的任何 财务权益；本报告评论的上市公司或其它第三方都没有或没有承诺向本人提供与本报告有关的任何补偿或其它利益。 评级体系说明 公司投资评级： 增 持：预计该公司股价在未来 6-12 个月内超越基准指数 10%-20%； 减 持：预计该公司股价在未来 6-12 个月内相对基准指数跌幅在 10%以上； 未有评级：因无法获取必要的资料或者其他原因，未能给出明确的投资评级。 强于大市：预计该行业指数在未来 6-12 个月内表现强于基准指数； 本报告由中银国际证券股份有限公司证券分析师撰写并向特定客户发布。 本报告发布的特定客户包括：1) 基金、保险、QFII、QDII 等能够充分理解证券研究报告， 具备专业信息处理能力的中银国际证券股份有限公司的机构客户；2) 中银国际证券股份有 限公司的证券投资顾问服务团队，其可参考使用本报告。中银国际证券股份有限公司的证券 投资顾问服务团队可能以本报告为基础，整合形成证券投资顾问服务 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in social financing scale in February, with an increase of 1.56 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 trillion yuan less than the previous year and below market expectations [2][7] - The M2 money supply growth remained flat at 8.70% year-on-year, while M1 saw a significant drop of 4.7 percentage points, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [3][7] - The real estate market continues to face downward pressure, with new home prices in 70 major cities decreasing by 0.4% month-on-month, marking nine consecutive months of decline [4][21] Macroeconomic Analysis - February's social financing data indicates a contraction in both on-balance and off-balance sheet financing, with a notable decrease in corporate loans and a significant drop in household loans [3][7] - The report suggests that the overall credit environment remains weak, with corporate loans showing some resilience while household loans continue to lag [7][10] Real Estate Market Overview - The real estate sector is under considerable pressure, with new home prices in major cities continuing to decline, and the number of cities experiencing price drops increasing [4][8] - In first-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai showing relative stability, while second-tier cities also experienced a slight reduction in price declines [9][10] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor policy changes that could impact market sentiment and demand recovery in the real estate sector [10][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and low liquidity risk, particularly state-owned enterprises and certain private firms that are well-positioned to navigate the current market challenges [24][10] - It highlights potential opportunities in companies involved in urban redevelopment and affordable housing projects, as well as those benefiting from REITs [24][10]

002033.SZ 股价表现 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 549.49 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 549.48 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 5,220.16 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 268.08 | | 主要股东 | | | | 丽江玉龙雪山旅游开发有限责任公司 | | 15.73 | | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind | ，中银证券 | | 相关研究报告 《丽江股份》20240124 《丽江股份》20231024 《丽江股份》20230811 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 社会服务：旅游及景区 证券分析师：李小民 (8621)20328901 xiaomin.li@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522090001 丽江股份 利润改善提高分红，供给优化增量可期 评级面临的主要风险 市场竞争风 ...

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年3月11日 强于大市 房地产行业第 10 周周报（3 月 2 日-3 月 8 日） 本周新房成交环比增速转负；政府工作报告对 房地产供需端释放积极信号 新房成交面积环比由正转负，同比降幅扩大；二手房成交面积环比增幅收窄， 相关研究报告 同比降幅收窄；土地市场环比量价齐升，溢价率同环比均下降。 《房贷成本有望进一步下行；标本兼治化解房地产风 核心观点 险仍是重点工作—2024年政府工作报告点评》  新房成交面积环比由正转负，同比降幅扩大。新房成交面积为186.0万平，环比下跌34.5%，同 （2024/03/06） 比下降61.4%，同比降幅较上周扩大了17.7个百分点。一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积环比增 速分别为-23.0%、-23.3%、-51.3%，同比增速分别为-51.4%、-64.9%、-61.5%，同比降幅较上周 《70城房价持续面临下行压力，但各能级城市房价环 分别扩大了9.8、8.5、44.3个百分点。 比跌幅有所收窄——房地产行业2024年1月70个大  二手房成交面积环比增幅收窄，同比降幅收窄。18个城市成交面积为151.0万平，环 ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年3月11日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 全球航空货运市场 1 月供需两旺，持续关注低 空经济趋势性投资机遇 航空方面，全球航空货运市场 1 月供需两旺，跨境电商正重塑航空运输行 业。快递行业方面，降本增效行业景气上升，优化结构推动行业发展，政府 工作报告提出物流行业发展方向，中东北非电商市场高速增长引关注。航空 方面，全球最大私人飞机制造商拟登陆港交所，广州向外展示“低空经济” 研发成果。  核心观点： ①全球航空货运市场1月供需两旺，跨境电商正重塑航空货运行业。全球航空 货运市场复苏明显， 关注跨境电商增长带来的影响。随着 2024年全球经济的 发展，以及跨境电商对航空货运的高需求，在供需两旺的情况下，全球航空公 司业务量有望稳健增长。跨境电商对航空货运的高需求，可能会挤占其他行业 能获得的航空货运资源，叠加红海局势等地缘政治因素下可能的船运转向航空 货运的需求，在短期内推高航空货运价格，航空货运未来有望量价齐升。但同 时也需注意，市场如果一直保持对航空运力的高需求，航空公司可能会扩张自 身运力，从而使得长期航空货运价格趋于稳定，但整体航空运输业务量会有 ...

Macro Economic Overview - In February, the new social financing (社融) was 1.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 trillion yuan, which was below market expectations [11] - The decline in social financing growth is primarily attributed to a contraction in on-balance sheet notes and a slower issuance of government bonds [11] - The overall credit situation shows a weak performance in household loans while corporate loans remain relatively strong [11][12] - The monetary policy outlook suggests that a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is prioritized as a counter-cyclical adjustment method, given the unexpected inflation performance in February [11][12] Social Financing Details - In February, on-balance sheet financing decreased by 870.3 billion yuan year-on-year, while off-balance sheet financing saw a reduction of 320.7 billion yuan [11] - The new RMB loans in February amounted to 980 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 838.4 billion yuan [11] - The issuance of corporate bonds in February was 175.7 billion yuan, down 190.5 billion yuan year-on-year [11] Real Estate Market Analysis - In February, the average price of new homes in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.6% [13][14] - The downward pressure on housing prices remains significant, with new home prices declining for nine consecutive months and second-hand home prices for ten months [14] - The number of cities experiencing a decline in new home prices increased to 59, with an average decline of 0.46% [14] - The market remains subdued due to weak consumer confidence and concerns over new home deliveries [6][14] Investment Recommendations - Focus on four main lines: 1) Central and state-owned enterprises with solid fundamentals and no liquidity risks, such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou [16] 2) Relatively safe private enterprises like Binjiang Group and Midea Real Estate [16] 3) Companies with potential for rebound and high elasticity, such as Gemdale Corporation and Longfor Group [16] 4) Opportunities related to urban village renovations and affordable housing construction [16]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the significance of the "Spring Rally" in the A-share market, which is defined as a notable upward trend occurring from December of the previous year to April of the current year, with a narrower focus on January to March for higher distribution rates [2][18] - Historical data indicates that the Spring Rally typically accounts for a substantial portion of the annual gains, with an average excess return of 9% during the broad Spring Rally period [2][18] - The report categorizes the Spring Rally into three types: "Bull Market Rally," "Bear Market Rally," and "Oversold Rally," with the Bull Market Rally showing the highest average duration and intensity of gains [2][18][10] Group 2 - The report identifies three main industry allocation themes for 2024: technology and high-end manufacturing, consumer goods, and high-dividend state-owned enterprises, driven by government policies aimed at enhancing new productive forces [2][39] - It notes that the consumer goods sector is expected to perform relatively well in a "weak price" environment anticipated for 2024, suggesting a favorable outlook for this segment [2][39] - The report highlights that state-owned enterprises, particularly those with high dividends, are likely to benefit from the new round of state-owned enterprise reforms and market value management assessments [2][39]