电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年3月17日 电力设备与新能源行业 3 月 强于大市 第 3 周周报 国务院印发以旧换新行动方案，推动新能源发展 光伏硅片保持高稼动率，由于硅片端库存持续积累，N型硅片价格压力较大。 电池片厂商试探性涨价，电池环节或阶段性受益于原材料价格下降，且若电 池片产能相对有限，若电池片涨价形成合力，专业化龙头或反弹。此外电网 或逐步放开新能源消纳红线，我国新能源装机量或超预期。建议优先配置产 业链价格基本见底环节、在下游供给恢复过程中具备成本优势的一体化龙头 标的、具备技术优势且行业格局较优的相关标的。风电方面，节后海风项目 陆续开工，预计全年海风并网体量增长较大，英国三月底CfD海风拍卖量有 望达到15GW，有望支撑行业长期增长趋势，建议优先配置后续增长潜力较 大的塔筒桩基与海缆环节，以及存在渗透率提升逻辑的国产化与新技术环 节。国务院发布以旧换新行动方案，有望刺激新能源车换购需求提升。价格 战背景下产业链价格整体面临较大压力，随着产能逐步出清，电池和材料环 节盈利有望回归合理，新技术有望带动产业技术升级。建议优先布局格局较 优的电芯环节，海外客户放量以及一体化布局 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 3 月 17 日 政策释放积极信号，哑铃策略本质尚未破坏。 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 观点回顾.........................................................................................................4 中观行业与景气.............................................................................................7 目录 图表 15.市场成交活跃度相对上周有所回落 图表 17.一周行业资金流向情况,钢铁、食品饮料净流入排名靠前 图表 19. 中银年度核心组合、月度金股连续组合本周走势情况 . | ...

图表 3. 社融存量结构变化 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

图表 17. LLDPE 价格同比与 PPI 工业同比 10 图表 20. 食用农产品价格指数同比与 CPI 同比 图表 22. 山东蔬菜批发价格指数同比与 CPI 同比 资料来源:万得,中级证券 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | 40 | | 图表 24. 柯桥纺织价格指数同比与社会零售总额同比 \n-社会消费品案信总额:当月网比 \n10 | 1 60 | | 图表 25. CRB 指数环比与商品房销售累计同比 \n商品房销售额:累计同比:+6月 | | ُ 1 00 | | | | | 1 40 | | | | ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 3 月 17 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 两会之后各部委加快落实工作 2 月新增社融偏弱。大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 经济数据：2 月新增社融 1.52 万亿元，新增信贷 1.45 万亿元，M2 同比 8.7%。 资产表现回顾 资产配置建议 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-----------|------------------------------------------------|----------| | | | | | | 本期观点（ 宏观经济 | 2024.3.17 | ） 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 一个月内 | = | 关注稳增长政策落地 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注两会对 2024 年经济增长目标和赤字率安排 | 不变 | | 一年内 | - | 欧美经济下行趋势和全球局势变化 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 以万亿国债落地为代表的稳增长政策发力 | 超配 | | 债券 | = ...

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年3月17日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20240317 国际油价上涨，涤纶长丝价格窄幅下跌 3月份建议关注：1、大型能源央企在中高油价背景下的高盈利与价值重估， 并关注部分央国企在新时代背景下的改革改善与经营业绩提升；2、春节过后 纺服、农化等产业链即将迎来旺季及补库行情；3、经过调整后估值大幅回落 的半导体、OLED等电子材料公司；4、年报一季报超预期公司行情。 行业动态  本周（3.11-3.17）均价跟踪的101个化工品种中，共有45个品种价格上涨，26个品种价格 下跌，30个品种价格稳定。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是硫酸(浙江巨化98%)、液氯（长三 角）、盐酸（长三角 31%）、炭黑（黑猫 N330）、甲基环硅氧烷；而周均价跌幅居前的品 种分别是草铵膦、NYMEX天然气、磷酸（澄星85%）、双酚A（华东）、己二酸（华东）。  本周（3.11-3.17）国际油价上涨，WTI原油收于81.04美元/桶，收盘价涨幅3.88%；布伦特 原油收于85.34美元/桶，收盘价涨幅3.97%。宏观方面，美国2月核心CPI上升0.4%，预期 上升0.3%，前值上升0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 9.77 [1] - The sector rating is **Outperform** [1] Core Views - The company remains the industry leader in sales, ranking first in the industry despite sales pressure [3] - The company's financing channels remain smooth, with significant advantages in funding and land acquisition [3] - The company's 2023 revenue grew steadily, but profits declined due to lower gross margins and asset impairment [3] - The company's 2023-2025 shareholder return plan includes a cash dividend ratio of no less than 40% of net profit [3] Sales Performance - In February 2024, the company achieved sales of RMB 15.62 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 54.4%, and sales area of 948k sqm, a year-on-year decrease of 53.4% [3] - The average selling price in February 2024 was RMB 16,832 per sqm, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [3] - For the full year 2023, the company achieved sales of RMB 422.24 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and sales area of 23.68 million sqm, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [3] Land Acquisition - In February 2024, the company acquired 3 plots in second-tier cities with a total construction area of 499k sqm, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and a total investment of RMB 3.75 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 67.8% [3] - The land acquisition intensity (land acquisition amount/sales amount) was 10.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8 percentage points [3] - For the full year 2023, the company acquired 103 plots with a total construction area of 10.75 million sqm, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, and a total investment of RMB 163.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [3] Financial Performance - The company's 2023 revenue was RMB 347.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 12.04 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 34.4% [3] - The company's 2023-2025 revenue is forecasted to be RMB 346.8 billion, RMB 365.7 billion, and RMB 398.0 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 6%, and 9%, respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023-2025 is forecasted to be RMB 12.0 billion, RMB 12.4 billion, and RMB 13.3 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -34%, 3%, and 7%, respectively [4] Financing and Share Repurchase - In January-February 2024, the company successfully issued public market bonds totaling RMB 10.98 billion, with an average coupon rate of 2.2% [3] - The company completed a share repurchase of 105 million shares, accounting for 0.88% of the total shares, with a total repurchase amount of RMB 1.0 billion [3] - The company's major shareholder, Poly Group, plans to increase its shareholding by RMB 250-500 million, and has already increased its stake by 26.78 million shares, accounting for 0.22% of the total shares [3] Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.7x, 9.4x, and 8.8x for 2023-2025, respectively [4] - The PB ratio is 0.6x, 0.6x, and 0.5x for 2023-2025, respectively [5]

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年3月15日 002916.SZ 深南电路 买入 PCB 产品结构优化，封装基板稳步发力 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 83.58 公司发布 2023 年年报，受下游需求拖累公司业绩同比有所下滑，但公司 PCB 产品 板块评级:强于大市 结构优化，封装基板项目正稳步进入量产爬坡阶段，维持买入评级。 支撑评级的要点 股价表现  公司2023全年业绩同比下滑，23Q4同环比有所改善。公司2023全年实现收入 135.26亿元，同比下降3.33%，实现归母净利润13.98亿元，同比下降14.74%， 26% 实现扣非净利润9.98亿元，同比下降33.4%。单季度来看，公司23Q4实现营收 14% 40.65亿元，同比+15.91%/环比+18.59%，实现归母净利润4.90元，同比+6.99%/ 1% 环比+12.84%,实现扣非净利润 2.61 亿元，同比-34.85%/环比-16.29%。盈利能力 (11%) 方面，公司2023年毛利率23.43%，同比减少2.09pcts，归母净利率10.34%，同 比减少1.38pcts，扣非净利率7.38%，同比减少3 ...

房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2024年3月15日 强于大市 房地产行业 2024 年 2 月月报 淡季楼市地市成交低迷；房企现金流形势紧迫 核心观点  新房：2月逢传统春节，叠加房企推盘积极性较弱，整体新房成交量如期下降。2月 40城新房成交面积环比- 39.5%，同比-63.8%，同比降幅较上月扩大了49.0pct。1-2月累计新房成交面积同比-39.6%。3月供求较 2月有 望修复，预计新房成交环比持增，但考虑到去年高基数原因，同比或仍然承压，出现“小阳春”概率不大。根 据克而瑞调研，3月28个重点城市预计新增商品住宅供应面积748万平，环比+124%，同比-60%。  从各城市能级来看，不同能级均呈现同环比齐降态势。1）一线城市 2月新房成交面积环比-60.2%，同比- 63.9%，同比降幅较上月扩大了 61.1pct；1-2月累计新房成交面积同比-34.5%。其中北京、上海、深圳市场热度 大幅回落，新房成交面积同环比跌幅均在 6成以上。根据克而瑞监测的数据，北京、上海、深圳春节假期表现 平淡，北京重点监测项目案场平均单盘周度到访量80组左右，低于平日100-120组的来访水平；上海重点监测 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to the company, with a target price of RMB 12.50 [36] Core Views - The company has successfully navigated key industry trends, including the smartphone and tablet boom, 3D sensing, and automotive HUD, which have been critical to its growth [1][4][7] - The company's new business expansion strategy focuses on leveraging core optical technologies to enter emerging markets, avoiding cross-industry diversification, and maintaining strong synergies between its businesses [2][6] - The company's competitive advantages include **technological barriers**, **business acumen**, and **organizational evolution capabilities**, which have enabled it to outperform peers in the same industry [7][9][10] - The company is transitioning from a component manufacturer to a **solution provider** and **technology platform**, with a clear gradient of foundational, growth, and future businesses [13][14][15] Business Expansion and Strategy - The company has expanded from its initial focus on filter products to five major business segments, including optical components, thin-film optical panels, semiconductor optics, automotive electronics (AR+), and reflective materials [2][4][15] - The company's core technologies include **precision optical coating**, **optical cold processing**, **semiconductor micro-nano processing**, and **optical design**, which are increasingly integrated into its new business ventures [6][8] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, such as Yejili (reflective materials) and a stake in Japan's Optorun, to secure upstream supply chains and enhance its technological capabilities [1][105] Key Business Segments Optical Components - The company's optical components business, including IR cut filters and micro-prisms, remains a cornerstone, contributing 46.16% of total revenue in 2022 [109][112] - The company has developed **absorbing-reflective composite filters** to address issues like ghosting and chromatic aberration in high-end smartphones [109] Thin-Film Optical Panels - Thin-film optical panels have become the company's second-largest business, driven by partnerships with major clients and advancements in automation and manufacturing efficiency [82][90] Automotive Electronics (AR+) - The company has successfully mass-produced **AR-HUD** and is developing **VR Pancake optical modules** and **AR waveguide solutions**, positioning itself as a key player in the automotive and AR/VR markets [83][15][151] Reflective Materials - The company's reflective materials business, led by subsidiary Yejili, focuses on high-end products like glass beads and micro-prisms, aiming to replace imports and expand into new markets [111] Growth Drivers - The company's growth is expected to be driven by **micro-prism modules** and **automotive HUD** in the near term, with **AR waveguide** and other AR/VR technologies providing long-term growth potential [15][16][151] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the resurgence of **periscope cameras** in smartphones, driven by innovations from Apple and Huawei, with the market expected to grow at a CAGR of 24.1% from 2022 to 2025 [128][25][28] Financial Performance - The company's revenue grew by 14.86% YoY to RMB 4.376 billion in 2022, with net profit increasing by 30.30% YoY to RMB 576 million, driven by the thin-film optical panels business [116][90] - The company's R&D expenses have been steadily increasing, reaching 11.69% of revenue in H1 2023, reflecting its focus on innovation in automotive electronics and AR/VR [120][92] Organizational Evolution - The company has implemented a **BU (Business Unit) system** since 2015, enhancing organizational agility and efficiency [3][10] - The company has expanded its global presence, establishing subsidiaries in key markets like the US, Japan, and Vietnam, with overseas revenue accounting for 75.62% of total revenue in H1 2023 [118][10] Industry Trends - The **periscope camera** market is expected to grow significantly, driven by innovations from Apple and Huawei, with the market size projected to reach RMB 28.7 billion by 2025 [128][25] - The **AR-HUD** market is in its early stages of penetration, with significant growth potential as costs decrease and adoption increases in mid-range vehicles [159][160]