Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock price to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next 6-12 months [10][15]. Core Views - The company reported a significant loss in 2023, with a net profit of -236 million RMB, a decrease of 572.05% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit for Q4 2023 was -161 million RMB [4][5]. - The decline in profit is attributed to falling prices of EVA raw materials and inventory impairments, with EVA particle prices dropping approximately 23% since the beginning of 2023 [4][5]. - Despite the challenges, there are signs of recovery as EVA particle and film prices have started to rebound in 2024, indicating potential improvement in the company's fundamentals [4][5]. - The company has increased its share buyback amount from 30-50 million RMB to 70-90 million RMB, which is expected to boost investor confidence [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,874 million RMB, reflecting an 8.2% decrease compared to 2022. Revenue is expected to grow to 5,341 million RMB in 2024 and 6,601 million RMB in 2025 [5][6]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is forecasted at -2.81 RMB, with a recovery to 1.76 RMB in 2024 and 2.54 RMB in 2025 [5][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be -17.6 for 2023, 28.2 for 2024, and 19.5 for 2025, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [5][6].

美国经济周期初现触底回升的迹象，但美股计价或已经较为充分，其它风险 资产或存在机会。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：周亚齐 yaqi.zhou@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522090002 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2024 年 2 月 27 日 基于企业盈利的美国经济周期近期已经显现出触底回升的迹象，美国经济周期或已经进入新一轮上 行时期。在 2022 年的《大类资产交易深度报告：基于经济周期的大类资产价格趋势研究》以及《大 类资产交易深度报告：经济周期的经验观察和初步分析》报告中，我们介绍了对于资产价格预测更 有借鉴意义的基于企业盈利的经济周期概念，并在之后持续对这一经济周期进行跟踪和预测。在 《2024 年宏观经济与大类资产配置展望》报告中，我们提到美国经济周期有望在 2024 年触底回升， 近期的数据则显示美国经济周期显示出了更多的触底回升的迹象。（我们使用的经济周期是基于企 业盈利变动，同市场常用的基于经济活动产出的 GDP 的经济周期有所区别。）我们使用制造业 PMI 的 12 个月移动均值来衡量经济 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [11] Core Views - In January 2024, housing prices in 70 major cities continued to face downward pressure, with new home prices declining by 0.4% month-on-month and second-hand home prices decreasing by 0.7% [1][5] - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased to 11, while the number of cities with falling prices decreased to 56, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1][6] - The report suggests that the current market remains sluggish due to weak consumer income and employment expectations, with limited signs of recovery in housing demand [1][11] Summary by Sections Housing Price Trends - New home prices in 70 major cities have been declining for eight consecutive months, while second-hand home prices have been falling for nine months [1] - The month of January saw a slight reduction in the number of cities experiencing price declines, although the overall number remains historically high [1][6] City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing showed relatively better performance compared to Shenzhen and Guangzhou, with Shanghai being the only first-tier city to see a month-on-month price increase [1][5] - In January, first-tier cities' new home prices fell by 0.4%, while second-hand home prices decreased by 1.0% [1][5] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the market will continue to be under pressure, with limited chances for a significant recovery in demand throughout the year [1][11] - It highlights four main investment themes: state-owned enterprises with strong fundamentals, relatively safe private enterprises, companies showing signs of recovery, and those involved in urban renewal projects [1][11]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned positive on a month-on-month basis, but the year-on-year decline has widened. The new home transaction area reached 1.553 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 1207.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 70.6% [1][8] - The second-hand home transaction area also turned positive month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing. The transaction area in 18 cities was 121.1 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 35832.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 49.2% [1][28] - The inventory of new homes has decreased month-on-month, with the de-stocking cycle increasing. The inventory area in 12 cities was 99.2 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% [1][23] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of February 17 to February 23, 2024, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 15,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 1367.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 68.3% [9][10] - The new home transaction area was 155.3 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 1207.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 70.6% [9][10] - Inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 1.551 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 17.0% [16][17] 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In the same week, second-hand home transaction volume in 18 cities was 12,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 47738.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 50.2% [28] - The transaction area for second-hand homes was 121.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 35832.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 49.2% [28] 3. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions in 100 cities was 422.0 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 68.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 89.3% [5][6] - The total land transaction price was 1.32 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 89.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 96.6% [5][6] 4. Policy and Market Performance - Recent policies have positively impacted market confidence, with expectations of a recovery in the sector. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and low liquidity risk [1][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next 6-12 months [1][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a profit of 832 million RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% [4]. - The company has a leading position in the N-type battery shipment industry, with a total battery production capacity exceeding 49 GW by the end of 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of over 180% [4]. - The company maintains a strong technological advantage in TOPCon battery research and development, with mass production efficiency exceeding 26%, significantly better than the P-type PERC battery's 23.5% conversion efficiency [4]. - The company has fully accounted for impairment losses related to P-type battery production capacity, amounting to approximately 900 million RMB, which will impact the company's earnings [4]. - The company's valuation is considered low, with adjusted earnings per share forecasts for 2023-2025 at 3.66, 4.72, and 5.55 RMB, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 17.9, 13.9, and 11.8 times respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 18,397 million RMB for 2023, with a growth rate of 58.7% [6]. - The EBITDA for 2023 is projected to be 1,173 million RMB, with a slight decrease from the previous year [6]. - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 832 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 16% [6]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has expanded its N-type battery production capacity significantly, with a total of 40 GW, and has achieved a cumulative shipment of 29.96 GW in 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of 179.43% [4]. - The company ranks fourth in the industry for total battery shipments and first in N-type battery shipments according to InfoLink data [4]. Technological Advancements - The company is continuously upgrading its TOPCon products, implementing several advanced technologies to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs [4]. - The company has successfully reduced the non-silicon costs of TOPCon batteries through various improvements in production processes [4]. Valuation Adjustments - Due to significant impairment provisions and a temporary decline in battery prices, the company's earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted downwards from previous estimates [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the N-type battery segment, which is expected to maintain high capacity utilization rates and navigate through market cycles effectively [4].

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年2月26日 688599.SH 天合光能 买入 业绩同比高增，TOPCon 组件占比提升 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 24.77 公司发布2023年业绩快报，盈利同比增长约51%。公司TOPCon组件销售 板块评级:强于大市 快速提升，储能业务稳步推进；维持买入评级。 股价表现 支撑评级的要点 ◼ 公司2023年盈利预计同比增长约51%，符合预期：公司发布2023年年 4% 度业绩快报，全年实现盈利 55.61亿元，同比增长51.12%；扣非盈利57.79 (9%) 亿元，同比增长66.78%。根据公司业绩快报计算，2024Q4公司实现盈利 (23%) 4.84 亿元，同比减少 62.10%，环比减少 68.50%；实现扣非盈利 6.60 亿 元，同比减少46.13%，环比减少53.14%。公司此前发布业绩预告，快报 (37%) 业绩处于预告范围内，符合预期。 (51%) ◼ 减值或阶段性影响利润表现：2024年N型需求放量，存量P型产能或受 (64%) be 3F -2 ra 3M -2 ya 3M -2 n 3uJ -2 l 3uJ -2 gu ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 5.38 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 620 million, up 4.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s sales volume in 2023 was 1.403 million kiloliters, with an average price of RMB 3,834 per ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in volume and 4.1% in price. This performance significantly outpaced the industry growth rate of 0.3% [3][4]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2023-2025 will be RMB 0.28, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.36, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.1%, 16.3%, and 11.0% respectively [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, the company’s revenue reached RMB 5.38 billion, with a net profit margin of 11.6%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed mainly to changes in financial expenses [3][4]. - For Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of RMB 830 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, but incurred a net loss of RMB 20 million, compared to a profit of RMB 30 million in the same period last year [2][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company’s sales performance in Q4 2023 continued to show strength, with a sales volume of 253,000 kiloliters, despite a decline in average price due to increased promotional activities [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the long-term trend of industry structural upgrades remains intact, and short-term price fluctuations should not be a concern. The company is expected to benefit from cost pressures easing in 2024 due to policy changes [3][4]. Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings forecast and estimates the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2023-2025 to be 28.3x, 24.4x, and 21.9x respectively, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a market price of $3.96 and an initial rating of "No Rating" [1]. Core Insights - The company, Youdao, is a technology-driven leading education firm that has fully integrated AI large models into its learning services and hardware products. The report highlights the company's strong focus on AI in education and its diverse offerings in learning services, smart hardware, and online marketing [4][5]. - Youdao's learning services cover a wide range, with a focus on quality education and high school courses. The company has developed various programs in humanities, chess, programming, and more, utilizing AI technology to enhance user experience [5][28]. - The report emphasizes Youdao's leading position in the smart hardware market, particularly with its flagship product, the Youdao Dictionary Pen, which incorporates advanced technologies such as OCR, NMT, and TTS [5][19]. - The online marketing segment has seen rapid revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 80%-100% in Q1-Q3 2023, attributed to enhanced AI applications in advertising [5][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Youdao was established in 2006 and launched its flagship product, Youdao Dictionary, in 2007. The company has since expanded its offerings to include learning content services, smart hardware, and online marketing [5][14]. - As of March 31, 2023, NetEase holds a 55.0% stake in Youdao, with a management team composed of individuals with strong backgrounds in computer science [5][16]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2023, Youdao achieved a record revenue of 1.54 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.72% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.53%. The company is nearing profitability, with a significant reduction in net losses [19][25]. - The revenue breakdown for Q3 2023 includes 950 million RMB from learning services, 250 million RMB from smart hardware, and 340 million RMB from online advertising, showcasing diverse income streams [19][25]. Market Position and Strategy - Youdao's strategy focuses on leveraging AI technology to enhance educational services and products. The company has launched several AI-driven products, including the "1+3+1" AI product matrix, which features new models and applications [19][28]. - The report notes the growing demand for quality education and the expansion of the quality education market in China, projected to exceed 600 billion RMB in 2023 [31][32].

建筑装饰 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年2月26日 中性 建筑行业周报（2.19-2.25） 房地产协调融资机制逐步落地；华南华东复工情 况较好 城市房地产融资协调机制已建立并逐步快速落地；节后华南、华东等项目 及资金较为充裕的地区开复工情况较好。 本周板块表现 ◼ 本周（2.19-2.25）建筑指数环比上涨，细分板块全部上涨：本周申万建筑 指数收盘1,838.9点，环比上周上涨5.02%。本周建筑细分板块全部上涨， 其中园林上涨17.9%，涨幅最大；钢构上涨2.0%，涨幅最小。 本周行业重点关注 ◼ 2 月 20 日，住建部召开城市房地产融资协调机制工作视频调度会议并做 出工作部署。会议要求，各地在开展工作时要形成“两个闭环”：一是形成 “推送-反馈”的工作闭环。城市房地产融资协调机制根据条件筛选项目并 推送给商业银行，各商业银行按照规程审查后放贷，对不予放贷的项目要 向金融监管部门报送“无法贷款的原因”，由城市政府及时协调解决。二是 要形成“发放-使用-偿还”的管理闭环，确保资金全部用于项目开发建设， 严防资金被挪用于购地、偿还债务或其他投资。房地产融资协调机制的建 立及快速落实有利于缓解房地 ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年2月26日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 地缘政治危机影响全球贸易，春节后机票价格大 跳水 ◼ 航运方面，地缘政治危机叠加气候变化影响，全球贸易或面临严峻挑战， 红海局势冲突加剧，集装箱运价快速上升。公路方面，春运出行量再创新 高，公路自驾成热门选择。快递行业方面，消费高需求带动快递收入增长， 强竞争抢占市场份额。航空方面，中韩航线应需求计划扩大规模，春节过 后机票价格大跳水。 ◼ 核心观点： ①地缘政治危机叠加气候变化影响，全球贸易或面临严峻挑战。航运价 格未来可能会持续上涨。近期针对红海航运的袭击导致船只避开苏伊士 运河，使得集装箱现货运费大幅增长，并且趋势仍在持续。巴拿马运河水 位下降也进一步加剧了航运的困境。这些因素将导致航运价格继续上涨， 可能会使全球经济面临更高的成本和通货膨胀风险。因此，未来航运价格 的走势可能将受到地缘政治和气候变化等因素的影响，需要持续关注。② 韩航线应需求计划扩大规模，春节过后机票价格大跳水。韩国国民赴华 旅游需求正在逐渐增加，中国政府恢复本国公民赴韩团体游后，访韩的中 国游客也呈现出恢复迹象，因此韩国航空业界开始着手扩大中 ...