Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a short-term pressure due to a faster decline in expectations compared to the rise in policies and fundamentals, but the logic of a gradual upward trend remains intact [2][3] - The market is entering a phase of anticipation for macro policies in 2025, with a focus on economic work meetings as the year-end approaches [3][21] Market Overview - Recent data on real estate transactions, second-hand housing prices, and excavator sales indicate a point-wise recovery in domestic demand [3][21] - The market saw a mixed performance with cyclical and dividend sectors alternating in dominance, while external factors led to a market pullback on Friday [3][21] - The trend of active versus passive fund performance highlights the difficulty in obtaining quality alpha, with passive funds currently outperforming due to lower fees and higher positions [27][29] Industry Insights - The AI application sector is showing promising results, with companies like AppLovin reporting strong third-quarter performance, indicating a rapid commercialization of AI products [3][30] - The consumer electronics industry is experiencing a slow recovery, but the introduction of AI-driven products like AI glasses and headphones is expected to catalyze growth [30][31] Fund Flow and Sector Performance - The week saw a notable shift in fund flows, with defensive sectors like utilities, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals showing relative resilience amid profit-taking in consumer sectors [25][39] - The coal, banking, and light manufacturing sectors saw significant net inflows, while consumer services and food and beverage sectors faced notable pressure [39] Conclusion - The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued upward movement despite short-term fluctuations, driven by macroeconomic policy anticipation and sector-specific developments [3][21][30]

医药生物 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 11 月 24 日 强于大市 医药生物行业周报 "医保+商保"多元支付有望缓解医疗支付压力 "医保商保数据共享"信号明确，为实现"医保+商保"一站式结算提供数据 支撑，解决商保发展痛点。"医保+商保"多元支付有望丰富支付方及支付标 准，缓解医疗支付压力。 板块行情 申万医药生物指数在2024.11.18-2024.11.22期间下跌2.36%，跑赢沪深300 指数 0.24 个百分点。从医药生物子板块来看，近一周各子板块指数均出 现下跌，其中化学制药板块、医药商业板块、医疗器械板块和生物制品 板块均跑赢沪深 300 指数。截至 2024.11.22，申万医药生物板块市盈率 （TTM）26.79 倍。 支撑评级的要点 "医保商保数据共享"信号明确，"医保+商保"多元支付有望缓解医疗 支付困境。"医保+商保"多元化支付一方面有望通过增加支付方来增加 支付额度，解决"支付额度不足"的问题，缓解支付压力。另一方面， 多元化的支付方可以实现多元化的支付标准，相对灵活，兼顾公平及效 率问题。根据《中国医疗保险》，目前中国医疗健康商业保险行业发展 的痛点包括：信息不对 ...

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交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 11 月 21 日 603569.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 8.73 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (28.2) 23.3 35.1 (30.3) (51%) (36%) (20%) (5%) 11% 26% Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24 长久物流 上证综指 相对上证综指 (41.9) 20.0 17.7 (40.1) | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|----------| | | | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | 603.51 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | 603.51 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | 5,268.62 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 百万 ) | 92.71 | | 主要股东 | | | 吉林省长久实业集团有限公司 | 61.5 ...

消费电子 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024 年 11 月 21 日 支撑评级的要点 强于大市 端侧 AI 行业跟踪 重磅玩家入局 AI 眼镜行业，产业热度提升 近期 AI 眼镜软硬件迭代加速。硬件方面，百度发布小度 AI 眼镜，这款眼镜 是首款搭载中文大模型的原生 AI 眼镜，计划于 2025 年上半年上市；三星亦 有望在 2025 年三季度发布其首款 AI 眼镜，并探索增加了扫描支付、识别等 新功能。软件方面，苹果 iOS 18.2 版本更新的 Visual Intelligence，有望通过 手机摄像头的拍摄识别，为未来 AI 眼镜做技术铺垫、用户习惯养成。我们认 为，目前 AI 眼镜仍处于发展早期，但产业热度提升，愿景空间较大。 ◼ 百度发布小度 AI 眼镜，大模型厂商在眼镜端进展加速。2024 年 11 月 12 日，百度发布搭载中文大模型的原生 AI 眼镜——小度 AI 眼镜。小度 AI 眼镜的参数如下：1）摄像头：采用 1600 万像素超广角摄像头；2）声学： 采用四麦克风精准拾音，开放式防漏音扬声器设计；3）AI 功能： 支持 AI 识别万物、试听翻译、多模态输入建立备忘、建立氛围歌单、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangfeng Electronics, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the near future [3]. Core Insights - Jiangfeng Electronics reported a significant revenue growth of 41.77% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching RMB 2.625 billion, with a net profit increase of 48.51% to RMB 287 million [1][2]. - The third quarter alone saw a revenue increase of 52.48% year-on-year, amounting to RMB 998 million, and a remarkable net profit growth of 213.13% to RMB 126 million [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding its high-purity target materials and precision components, positioning itself as a key supplier for major semiconductor manufacturers [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Jiangfeng Electronics achieved a gross margin of 29.96%, a slight increase of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter's gross margin was 28.26%, reflecting a decrease of 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s operating expenses have improved efficiency, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing varied changes [2]. Business Development - Jiangfeng Electronics has established itself as a supplier of high-purity sputtering targets for renowned manufacturers such as SMIC, TSMC, and BOE [2]. - The company is constructing projects to produce ultra-high purity metal sputtering targets, with a planned annual output of 52,000 units for integrated circuits [2]. - The establishment of a subsidiary in South Korea aims to enhance international competitiveness and supply chain stability [2]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 are projected at RMB 1.39, RMB 1.78, and RMB 2.43, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 53.6, 41.9, and 30.6 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The oil transportation market showed weak supply and demand in Q3 2024, while the bulk shipping segment saw significant profit growth year-on-year. The company reported a revenue of RMB 19.296 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, but a net profit of RMB 3.369 billion, a decrease of 10.35% year-on-year. The net profits for the oil, bulk, container, and roll-on/roll-off businesses were RMB 2.060 billion, RMB 1.170 billion, RMB 0.472 billion, and RMB 0.249 billion, reflecting changes of -12.23%, +106.71%, -25.90%, and +14.75% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at RMB 6.76, with a market capitalization of RMB 55.052 billion. The average trading volume over the past three months is RMB 423.65 million [1][3]. Business Segments - **Oil Transportation**: Revenue for the oil transportation business was RMB 6.982 billion, down 3.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 2.060 billion, down 12.23%. The average TCE for the TD3C route was USD 36,846 per day, up 4.24% year-on-year [4]. - **Bulk Shipping**: Revenue for the bulk shipping business was RMB 6.070 billion, up 17.86% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.170 billion, up 106.71%. The average BDI index was 1,845 points, up 57% year-on-year [4]. - **Container Shipping**: Revenue for the container shipping business was RMB 4.053 billion, up 0.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 0.472 billion, down 25.90% [4]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the profit forecast for the company, projecting net profits of RMB 4.828 billion, RMB 6.180 billion, and RMB 7.458 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of -0.2%, 28.0%, and 20.7%. The corresponding EPS is projected to be RMB 0.59, RMB 0.76, and RMB 0.92, with P/E ratios of 11.4, 8.9, and 7.4 respectively [4][5].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|----------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n11 月金股组合 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n | | 2024 年 11 月 20 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 | | 股票代码 600383.SH | | 股票名称 金地集团 | | -20241120 | | | | 极兔速递 | | | | 1519.HK | | | -W | ■ 重点关注 | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | | | | 688019.S ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 11 月 19 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 10 月 M1 同比降幅有所收窄 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 ◼ 经济数据：国家统计局公布数据显示，10 月份，全国规模以上工业增加值 同比增长 5.3%，社会消费品零售总额增长 4.8%，全国服务业生产指数增 长 6.3%。1-10 月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长 3.4%，其中房地产开发 投资下降 10.3%。10 月份，全国城镇调查失业率为 5.0%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。（万得） ◼ 要闻：财政部等三部门发布多项楼市税收优惠新政。其中提出，购买家庭 唯一及第二套住房，140 平方米及以下按 1%税率征收契税，并明确北京、 上海、广州、深圳可以与其他地区统一适用二套房契税优惠。在城市取消 普通住宅标准后，对个人销售已购买 2 年及以上住房一律免征增值税。土 地增值税预征率下限统一降低 0.5 个百分点。（万得） 资产表现回顾 ◼ A 股指数表现弱势。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 3.29%，沪深 300 股指期货下 跌 2.94%；焦煤期货本周下跌 5.26%，铁矿石主 ...