Macro Economy - In November, public fiscal revenue reached 1,402.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0%, improving by 5.5 percentage points [2] - Tax revenue for the month was 1,114.0 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, which is an improvement of 3.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Non-tax revenue was 288.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 40.4%, slightly improving by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [2] Real Estate Industry - In November, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.3%, with both declines narrowing compared to the previous month [6][7] - The number of cities with declining new home prices dropped significantly, with 49 cities experiencing a decline, 14 fewer than in October [7] - First-tier cities saw new home prices stabilize after 13 months of decline, with Shanghai and Shenzhen showing month-on-month increases of 0.6% and 0.3% respectively [8] - Second-tier cities experienced a smaller decline in new home prices, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, and 42% of these cities either holding steady or increasing in price [10] - The report indicates that the market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in key cities, with improved buyer sentiment and expectations regarding home prices [12]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow at 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, which is considered low compared to historical standards[58] - Inflation is projected to decrease from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025, indicating a continued global easing cycle[63] - The IMF forecasts that developed economies will grow by 1.8% in 2025, while emerging markets will see a growth of 4.2%[60] U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points each quarter in 2025, continuing the easing cycle initiated in 2024[70] - The U.S. core CPI is projected to remain around 3.3% in October 2024, indicating persistent inflation concerns[74] - The pressure from corporate financing costs may compel the Fed to maintain a dovish stance despite rising inflation expectations[75] Chinese Economic Forecast - China's GDP growth is anticipated to stabilize at 4.7% in 2025, with nominal growth expected at 5.1%[1] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP growth is projected to be 1.35 percentage points, while capital formation contributes 1.28 percentage points[80] - Structural highlights in China's economy include resilience in manufacturing and infrastructure investment, despite challenges in real estate and consumer spending[80] Asset Allocation Strategy - The ranking of major asset classes for 2025 is expected to be: equities > commodities > bonds > cash[1] - A-share market performance is anticipated to benefit from policy support and capital market reforms, with PE ratios remaining below median levels[1] - Commodity prices may face challenges from a strong dollar and supply-side issues, while gold prices are expected to remain robust[1]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2024 年 12 月 17 日 1-11 月财政数据点评 广义财政支出发力趋势未减 11月公共财政收入同比增速延续改善。财政支出结构延续向"稳增长"领域倾 斜。广义财政支出发力趋势未减。 ◼ 11 月公共财政收入实现 14029.0 亿元，同比增长 11.0%，增速延续改善 5.5 个百分点；其中，当月税收收入实现 11140.0 亿元，同比增速延续正 增长，实现 5.3%，较上月改善 3.5 个百分点；非税收入规模为 2889.0 亿 元，同比增长 40.4%，增速较上月微幅改善 0.8 个百分点。 11 月权重税种中，国内增值税对当月税收收入同比增速的贡献由负转 正，当月国内增值税同比增长 1.4%，增速较上月继续改善 2.6 个百分 点，拉动当月税收同比增速 0.6 个百分点。需要注意的是，11 月社会消 费品零售总额同比增速仅实现 3.0%，增幅较 10 月收窄 1.8 个百分点，拖 累消费端税种表现。11月国内消费税收入同比增速实现 0.7%，降幅较上 月收窄 9.5 个百分点，拉动当月税收同比增速 0.1 个百分点。11 月进口环 节增值税和消费税同比下 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The new ship orders continue to rise, with China maintaining its position as the global leader in new ship orders, accounting for 71.0% of the global market share in November [1][50] - The volume of outbound and inbound flight ticket bookings for the Spring Festival is up 40% year-on-year, with the aviation industry expected to surpass $1 trillion in total revenue for the first time in 2025 [1][52] - In November, express delivery volume increased by 14.9% year-on-year, and the Chinese e-commerce logistics index reached a seven-year high [1][58] Summary by Sections New Ship Orders - The new ship market remains active, with a total of 45 orders signed. Major companies like Maersk have placed significant orders for container ships, with deliveries expected between 2028 and 2030 [1][50] - In November, Chinese shipyards completed 84 new ship orders totaling 7.19 million deadweight tons, maintaining a global market share of 71.0% [1][51] Aviation Industry - As of December 11, the average price of domestic flight tickets is approximately 820 yuan, up 8% year-on-year, while international flight tickets average around 2010 yuan, up 13% year-on-year [1][52] - The International Air Transport Association forecasts that the aviation industry will generate $1.007 trillion in revenue in 2025, marking a 4.4% increase from 2024 [1][53] Express Delivery and E-commerce Logistics - In November, the express delivery business volume reached 17.21 billion pieces, a 14.9% increase year-on-year, with express delivery revenue totaling 142.99 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1][58] - The Chinese e-commerce logistics index for November reached 115.5 points, the highest in nearly seven years, driven by strong sales during promotional events [1][59] Industry Dynamics - The air freight prices have shown an upward trend from late November to early December, with stable capacity and increased demand [1][61] - The shipping market is experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rising by 5.67% week-on-week [1][69]

Economic Data - November CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.5%[1] - In November, exports in USD terms grew by 6.7% year-on-year, and imports fell by 3.7%[1] - New social financing in November reached 2.34 trillion CNY, with new RMB loans amounting to 580 billion CNY; M2 grew by 7.1% year-on-year[1] Market Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 1.01%, and the CSI 300 futures dropped by 0.75% this week[2] - Coal futures decreased by 0.47%, while iron ore futures rose by 0.31%[2] - The yield on 10-year government bonds declined by 18 basis points to 1.78%[2] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Recommended asset allocation order: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[3] - The focus for 2025 is on maintaining stable economic growth, with a target growth rate around 5%[3] - Emphasis on promoting reasonable price recovery and increasing fiscal deficit rates to stimulate the economy[3] Risk Factors - Global inflation may decline slowly, and there is a risk of rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US[3]

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| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n市场指数 指数名称 | —— \n收盘价 | 晨会聚焦 \n 涨跌 | % | 2024 年 12 月 17 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241217 | | 上证综指 | | 3386 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, emphasizing the potential for recovery and growth driven by supportive government policies and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - New housing transaction area has shown a narrowing decline on a month-over-month basis, while year-over-year growth remains positive, indicating the effectiveness of policy measures [1]. - The report highlights that the transaction volume in first-tier cities has experienced significant growth, with a year-over-year increase of 62.0% [1]. - The report suggests that the real estate market is stabilizing, with a focus on urban renewal and land reserve strategies as key themes for 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections 1) New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of December 7 to December 13, 2024, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 34,000 units, reflecting a month-over-month decline of 5.5% but a year-over-year increase of 19.1% [1][27]. - The new housing transaction area was 3.531 million square meters, with a month-over-month decline of 8.5% and a year-over-year increase of 21.8% [1][27]. - Inventory levels for new housing increased on a month-over-month basis, with a total inventory of 9.419 million square meters, reflecting a month-over-month growth of 0.3% and a year-over-year decline of 11.1% [1][35]. 2) Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 35.47 million square meters, showing a month-over-month increase of 24.7% but a year-over-year decrease of 8.0% [1][21]. - The total land transaction value was 121.8 billion yuan, with a month-over-month decline of 0.7% and a year-over-year increase of 35.2% [1][21]. - The average floor price for land was 3,434 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-over-month decline of 20.4% and a year-over-year increase of 47.0% [1][21]. 3) Policy Overview - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized macroeconomic easing and reiterated the commitment to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift towards more supportive fiscal and monetary policies [1][9]. - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined a proactive fiscal policy for 2025, focusing on urban renewal and the management of existing real estate resources [1][9]. 4) Company Performance Review - The report notes a decline in absolute returns for the real estate sector, with an absolute return of -1.9% and a relative return of -0.8% [1][24]. - The price-to-earnings ratio for the real estate sector is reported at 23.07X, indicating a decrease from the previous week [1][24]. 5) Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: companies expected to benefit from policy easing, those with strong positions in core cities, and local state-owned enterprises involved in debt management and urban renewal [1][13].

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Economic Policy and Market Sentiment - The central government's recent meetings on December 9 and 11-12 confirmed a more explicit growth-stabilizing policy stance compared to September, signaling a more proactive policy attitude[3] - Market expectations have significantly improved due to this policy shift, with economic activities in the real economy showing signs of recovery in October and November[3] - Manufacturing PMI indicates a notable recovery in domestic demand, with the PMI for domestic orders rising above 50, suggesting expansion driven primarily by improved domestic demand[3][4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate sales have improved, with weekly sales in 30 cities returning to levels seen in the past three years, particularly in second-hand housing markets[4] - Despite improved sales, the recovery has not translated into increased real estate investment, with developers' direct bank loans showing weak growth[4] - The divergence between improved sales and declining investment may weaken the real estate market's ability to drive broader economic recovery[4] Consumer and Retail Trends - Retail and automotive sales saw absolute growth in November, although overall commodity retail sales experienced a decline, indicating challenges in stimulating consumer spending[4][12] - The automotive export volume has decreased from high levels, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, reflecting potential market saturation[12] Investment Sector Performance - Investment-related industries have shown resilience during the traditional off-season, with production and operational rates in sectors like steel and cement performing better than in the past three years[12] - However, the overall financing demand in the real economy remains weak, with a significant year-on-year decrease in non-special bond social financing from September to November[14] Financial Market Conditions - The financial market is currently experiencing a "bull market" in both stocks and bonds, driven by liquidity, but there are concerns about potential asset price bubbles[18] - Recent economic data improvements have not led to a corresponding rise in long-term bond yields, indicating a disconnect between market performance and economic fundamentals[18][20] Currency and Exchange Rate Management - The Chinese yuan continues to face depreciation pressure, prompting the use of "counter-cyclical adjustment factors" to stabilize the exchange rate[22] - The market is closely monitoring whether the yuan will breach the 7.3 level, which could signal a more permissive stance on currency depreciation by the government[22]