Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][16]. Core Insights - November retail sales growth has slowed, with total retail sales reaching 43,763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a month-on-month decrease of 1.8 percentage points [16]. - The consumer confidence index is still in a recovery phase, with expectations for future policies to boost consumer confidence and spending [16]. - The recent relaxation of transit visa policies is expected to positively impact inbound tourism, with a significant increase in foreign visitors [16]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In November, retail sales growth decreased, with retail sales totaling 43,763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.8 percentage points [16]. - For the first eleven months, total retail sales reached approximately 44 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% [16]. Consumer Confidence and Employment - The service industry production index grew by 6.1% year-on-year in November, while the service PMI remained stable at 50.1 [16]. - The urban unemployment rate was 5.0%, with an increase in average working hours for employees [16]. Policy Impacts - The transit visa policy has been expanded, allowing foreign visitors to stay for up to 240 hours, which is expected to enhance inbound tourism [16]. - The number of foreign visitors in November reached 29.218 million, a year-on-year increase of 86.2%, with 17.446 million entering through visa-free policies, up 123.3% [16]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in tourism and travel demand, such as Lingnan Holdings and Zhongxin Tourism, as well as those benefiting from business and exhibition recovery [16].

Market Overview - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3370.03 with a slight decrease of 0.36% while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61% to 10649.03 [1] - The macroeconomic analysis highlights that the US dollar index experienced fluctuations, and the RMB exchange rate continued to adjust with minor depreciation pressure, maintaining a relatively strong position against non-US currencies [5] Semiconductor Materials Industry - The semiconductor materials market in China is growing, with a focus on domestic substitution and the impact of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and advanced packaging [6][7] - The global semiconductor industry sales for 2023 are projected at $519.28 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.99%, while the semiconductor materials market is estimated at $66.7 billion, down 8.2% year-on-year [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in semiconductor materials, with the current domestic substitution rate at approximately 15% [7] Advanced Packaging Materials - The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow from $43.9 billion in 2023 to $47.25 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6% projected from 2022 to 2028 [8] - Domestic companies are actively investing in advanced packaging materials, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [8] OLED Materials and Market - The OLED panel market is anticipated to rebound, with revenues projected to reach $44 billion in 2024, a 12% increase year-on-year, and panel shipments expected to grow by 18% [9][11] - The report notes that domestic OLED manufacturers are increasing investments in production lines, with BOE's new 8.6 generation AMOLED production line set to begin mass production by 2026 [9] - The OLED materials market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 9.8 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 11% from 2023 to 2030 [11] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the electronic materials sector, driven by rapid downstream industry growth and ongoing domestic substitution [12] - Key investment recommendations include companies such as Anji Technology, Yake Technology, and Jiangfeng Electronics, with a focus on the semiconductor and OLED materials sectors [12]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------|--------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n市场指数 指数名称 | —— \n收盘价 | 晨会聚焦 \n 涨跌 | % | 2024 年 12 月 19 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241219 | | 上证综指 | | 3382.21 0.62 | | | | 深证成指 | | 1058 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than Market" rating for the electronic materials industry, driven by downstream demand recovery, domestic substitution, and advancements in advanced technologies [1] Core Views - The electronic materials industry is experiencing rapid downstream development, with domestic substitution progressing steadily [1] - Semiconductor materials are seeing significant changes due to AI, advanced packaging, and HBM, with domestic substitution holding profound implications [1] - OLED materials are benefiting from improving panel industry conditions, with increasing penetration rates and domestic substitution opportunities [1] Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor materials market reached $667 billion in 2023, down 8.2% YoY, with China's market growing 0.9% to $130.85 billion [1] - Global semiconductor manufacturing capacity is expected to grow by 6% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, reaching a record high of 33.7 million wafers per month (8-inch equivalent) [1] - China's semiconductor material localization rate is around 15%, with significant room for growth in high-end sectors [1] - The advanced packaging market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.6% from 2022 to 2028, reaching $786 billion, with China's market growing at a higher CAGR of 26.47% from 2020 to 2025 [1] OLED Materials - Global OLED revenue is expected to reach $44 billion in 2024, up 12% YoY, with panel shipments growing 18% [1] - China's OLED panel capacity accounted for 45.7% of the global total in 2023, with BOE and Visionox leading in AMOLED smartphone panel shipments [1] - The global OLED material market is expected to rebound in 2024, surpassing $2 billion, with China's OLED organic material market projected to grow to $9.8 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 11% [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on semiconductor materials benefiting from AI, advanced packaging, and HBM, with key companies including Anji Technology, Yake Technology, and Jiangfeng Electronics [1] - In the OLED sector, companies like Wanrun and Laite Optoelectronics are recommended due to increasing penetration rates and domestic substitution opportunities [1] Key Companies and Projects - BOE is constructing China's first 8.6-generation AMOLED production line, targeting mass production by 2026 [1] - Visionox is collaborating with Hefei government to invest in an 8.6-generation AMOLED production line [1] - Domestic companies are making progress in advanced packaging materials, with projects in bonding adhesives, packaging PI, and electroplating materials [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [23] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with November sales area reaching 81.88 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, marking the first positive growth in 18 months [10][4] - The report indicates that the average selling price of commercial housing in November was 10,100 yuan per square meter, down 3.2% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year, suggesting a price correction despite sales volume improvement [6][4] - The report emphasizes that the improvement in sales is primarily driven by supportive government policies and a low base from the previous year, with expectations for continued recovery in December [10][9] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November, the total sales area was 81.88 million square meters, with a sales amount of 827 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [4][10] - Residential sales area reached 68.56 million square meters, up 4.6% year-on-year, indicating a significant recovery in the housing market [10][4] - Cumulative sales area from January to November was 861 million square meters, down 14.3% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2011 [10][4] New Housing Inventory - The report notes a decrease in new housing inventory and the de-stocking cycle, with total inventory at 1.84 billion square meters, down 1.3% month-on-month and 12.6% year-on-year [10][9] - The de-stocking cycle is reported at 26.6 months, indicating a slight improvement in inventory management [10][9] Investment and Construction - Real estate development investment in November was 732.5 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year, although the decline has narrowed compared to previous months [10][9] - New construction area in November was 60.81 million square meters, down 26.8% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the construction sector [10][9] - Cumulative development investment from January to November was 9.36 trillion yuan, down 10.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued contraction in investment [10][9] Funding for Real Estate Companies - In November, the total funds available to real estate companies were 934 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, with sales receipts showing a positive growth of 3.2% [10][9] - The report highlights that the improvement in sales receipts is contributing to a more stable funding environment for developers [10][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment opportunities: 1. Stocks expected to rebound post-policy easing, such as JinDi Group and Longfor Group 2. Companies with strong core city layouts benefiting from targeted policies, like Greentown China and China Resources Land 3. Local state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution and urban renewal initiatives [10][9]

Macro Economy - In November, public fiscal revenue reached 1,402.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0%, improving by 5.5 percentage points [2] - Tax revenue for the month was 1,114.0 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, which is an improvement of 3.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Non-tax revenue was 288.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 40.4%, slightly improving by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [2] Real Estate Industry - In November, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.3%, with both declines narrowing compared to the previous month [6][7] - The number of cities with declining new home prices dropped significantly, with 49 cities experiencing a decline, 14 fewer than in October [7] - First-tier cities saw new home prices stabilize after 13 months of decline, with Shanghai and Shenzhen showing month-on-month increases of 0.6% and 0.3% respectively [8] - Second-tier cities experienced a smaller decline in new home prices, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, and 42% of these cities either holding steady or increasing in price [10] - The report indicates that the market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in key cities, with improved buyer sentiment and expectations regarding home prices [12]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow at 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, which is considered low compared to historical standards[58] - Inflation is projected to decrease from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025, indicating a continued global easing cycle[63] - The IMF forecasts that developed economies will grow by 1.8% in 2025, while emerging markets will see a growth of 4.2%[60] U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points each quarter in 2025, continuing the easing cycle initiated in 2024[70] - The U.S. core CPI is projected to remain around 3.3% in October 2024, indicating persistent inflation concerns[74] - The pressure from corporate financing costs may compel the Fed to maintain a dovish stance despite rising inflation expectations[75] Chinese Economic Forecast - China's GDP growth is anticipated to stabilize at 4.7% in 2025, with nominal growth expected at 5.1%[1] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP growth is projected to be 1.35 percentage points, while capital formation contributes 1.28 percentage points[80] - Structural highlights in China's economy include resilience in manufacturing and infrastructure investment, despite challenges in real estate and consumer spending[80] Asset Allocation Strategy - The ranking of major asset classes for 2025 is expected to be: equities > commodities > bonds > cash[1] - A-share market performance is anticipated to benefit from policy support and capital market reforms, with PE ratios remaining below median levels[1] - Commodity prices may face challenges from a strong dollar and supply-side issues, while gold prices are expected to remain robust[1]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2024 年 12 月 17 日 1-11 月财政数据点评 广义财政支出发力趋势未减 11月公共财政收入同比增速延续改善。财政支出结构延续向"稳增长"领域倾 斜。广义财政支出发力趋势未减。 ◼ 11 月公共财政收入实现 14029.0 亿元，同比增长 11.0%，增速延续改善 5.5 个百分点；其中，当月税收收入实现 11140.0 亿元，同比增速延续正 增长，实现 5.3%，较上月改善 3.5 个百分点；非税收入规模为 2889.0 亿 元，同比增长 40.4%，增速较上月微幅改善 0.8 个百分点。 11 月权重税种中，国内增值税对当月税收收入同比增速的贡献由负转 正，当月国内增值税同比增长 1.4%，增速较上月继续改善 2.6 个百分 点，拉动当月税收同比增速 0.6 个百分点。需要注意的是，11 月社会消 费品零售总额同比增速仅实现 3.0%，增幅较 10 月收窄 1.8 个百分点，拖 累消费端税种表现。11月国内消费税收入同比增速实现 0.7%，降幅较上 月收窄 9.5 个百分点，拉动当月税收同比增速 0.1 个百分点。11 月进口环 节增值税和消费税同比下 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The new ship orders continue to rise, with China maintaining its position as the global leader in new ship orders, accounting for 71.0% of the global market share in November [1][50] - The volume of outbound and inbound flight ticket bookings for the Spring Festival is up 40% year-on-year, with the aviation industry expected to surpass $1 trillion in total revenue for the first time in 2025 [1][52] - In November, express delivery volume increased by 14.9% year-on-year, and the Chinese e-commerce logistics index reached a seven-year high [1][58] Summary by Sections New Ship Orders - The new ship market remains active, with a total of 45 orders signed. Major companies like Maersk have placed significant orders for container ships, with deliveries expected between 2028 and 2030 [1][50] - In November, Chinese shipyards completed 84 new ship orders totaling 7.19 million deadweight tons, maintaining a global market share of 71.0% [1][51] Aviation Industry - As of December 11, the average price of domestic flight tickets is approximately 820 yuan, up 8% year-on-year, while international flight tickets average around 2010 yuan, up 13% year-on-year [1][52] - The International Air Transport Association forecasts that the aviation industry will generate $1.007 trillion in revenue in 2025, marking a 4.4% increase from 2024 [1][53] Express Delivery and E-commerce Logistics - In November, the express delivery business volume reached 17.21 billion pieces, a 14.9% increase year-on-year, with express delivery revenue totaling 142.99 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1][58] - The Chinese e-commerce logistics index for November reached 115.5 points, the highest in nearly seven years, driven by strong sales during promotional events [1][59] Industry Dynamics - The air freight prices have shown an upward trend from late November to early December, with stable capacity and increased demand [1][61] - The shipping market is experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rising by 5.67% week-on-week [1][69]

Economic Data - November CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.5%[1] - In November, exports in USD terms grew by 6.7% year-on-year, and imports fell by 3.7%[1] - New social financing in November reached 2.34 trillion CNY, with new RMB loans amounting to 580 billion CNY; M2 grew by 7.1% year-on-year[1] Market Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 1.01%, and the CSI 300 futures dropped by 0.75% this week[2] - Coal futures decreased by 0.47%, while iron ore futures rose by 0.31%[2] - The yield on 10-year government bonds declined by 18 basis points to 1.78%[2] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Recommended asset allocation order: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[3] - The focus for 2025 is on maintaining stable economic growth, with a target growth rate around 5%[3] - Emphasis on promoting reasonable price recovery and increasing fiscal deficit rates to stimulate the economy[3] Risk Factors - Global inflation may decline slowly, and there is a risk of rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US[3]