| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|-------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n11 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— | 晨会聚焦 | 股票名称 | 2024 年 11 月 11 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241111 | | 600383.SH | | | 金地集团 | | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 | -W | | | | | | | ■ 重点关注 | | 600309.SH | | | 万华化学 | | | 688019.S ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year increase in losses for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue decreasing by 48.02% to RMB 2.05 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 248.58 million [3][5] - The sales gross margin has stabilized, and the recovery in module demand is expected to enhance the profitability of the EVA film segment [3][5] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share forecasts for 2024-2026 to -RMB 3.47, RMB 1.50, and RMB 2.52 respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to the impact of EVA particle prices [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 2.05 billion, a decrease of 48.02% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was -0.21%, down by 5.18 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -12.11%, down by 10.20 percentage points [3][5] - The company reported a net loss of RMB 248.58 million for the first three quarters of 2024, which is a significant increase in losses compared to the previous year [3][5] Market and Product Insights - The price of EVA particles has remained low, around RMB 10,000 per ton, which has pressured the sales price of EVA films [3][5] - The company is focusing on technological advancements in EVA film formulations, including the development of differentiated products for various customer needs [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The forecasted earnings per share for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to -RMB 3.47, RMB 1.50, and RMB 2.52, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 28.8 and 17.2 for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4][6] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 3.64 billion, with a three-month average trading volume of RMB 106.71 million [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company, a leader in the encapsulation film sector, shows stable profitability despite a 12% year-on-year decline in performance for the first three quarters of 2024. Continuous optimization of cash flow and credit recovery, along with enhanced overseas production capacity, strengthens the company's competitive advantage [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 15,174.25 million RMB, a decrease of 8.86% year-on-year. The net profit was 1,258.02 million RMB, down 12.08% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a net profit of 330 million RMB, reflecting a significant decline of 39.67% year-on-year and 19.01% quarter-on-quarter [4][6]. - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters was 15.56%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 8.28%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points year-on-year [4][6]. Cash Flow and Credit Recovery - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 2,789 million RMB, with the third quarter showing a positive cash flow of 1,885 million RMB, indicating a significant improvement [4][6]. Competitive Positioning - The company has a comprehensive product range and excellent cost control capabilities, providing competitive encapsulation solutions for new technology components. The expansion of production capacity in Vietnam and the initiation of a second-phase project in Thailand are expected to enhance its global leadership in encapsulation film [4][5]. Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.61, 0.89, and 1.16 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 30.0, 20.5, and 15.7 times. The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating based on the company's solid leadership position in the encapsulation film sector [4][5].

Core Insights - The report indicates that nearly half of the listed companies have reached new highs in stock prices, with 2407 out of 5115 stocks exceeding their previous highs from October 8 and 9, reflecting a 47.1% increase in stock performance [1][10][15] - The report highlights the importance of the "self-controllable" strategy in the context of Trump's election, suggesting that industries such as defense, semiconductor equipment, and high-end machine tools are likely to benefit from this focus [1][18] - The approval of a 6 trillion yuan local government debt limit is expected to support economic stability and growth, particularly benefiting cyclical industries like real estate, construction, and machinery [1][20][25] Market Overview - The report notes a significant market rally driven by domestic growth policies, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming dividend assets [1][10] - The upcoming release of October economic and financial data is anticipated to serve as a validation window for market expectations, with mixed signals regarding domestic demand recovery [1][11] Industry Trends - The report identifies strong inflows into sectors such as food and beverage, defense, and light manufacturing, indicating a positive sentiment towards these industries [1][27] - The "AI+ applications" trend is accelerating, with a focus on sectors like robotics, gaming, education, and finance, which are expected to commercialize rapidly [1][19] Policy Implications - The report emphasizes the significance of fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, particularly in light of international economic uncertainties, which will likely enhance the valuation of core industries supporting economic growth [1][25] - The report outlines that the approval of new fiscal measures and debt limits reflects a commitment to sustainable economic growth, which is expected to attract long-term investment into the A-share market [1][25]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2024 年 11 月 10 日 10 月通胀点评 关注促进物价合理回升的相关措施 10 月通胀同比增速整体较 9 月继续小幅下行；CPI 同比增速偏低，主要受到 食品价格和国际能源价格的影响；但从 2024 年 1-10 月累计同比增速看，交 通通信、食品烟酒和居住价格偏低，背后或有行业供求结构的影响，促进物 价合理回升或从相关行业入手；PPI 环比增速继续下降有国际大宗商品价格 下降的影响，但需要关注在中期内外需波动可能对我国生产端造成的冲击； 短期建议关注 11 月生产端补库存的情况。 10 月 CPI 环比增速-0.3%，同比增长 0.3%，核心 CPI 同比增长 0.2%，服 务价格同比增长 0.4%，消费品价格同比上升 0.2%。 从分项看，10 月同比增速较高的是其他用品和服务（4.7%）、食品烟酒（2.0%）、 衣着（1.1%）、医疗保健（1.1%）和教育文化娱乐（0.8%），同比负增长的 是交通通信和居住，同比增速较 9 月上升的仅有其他用品及服务和教育文化 娱乐，较 9 月下降较多的是交通通信、食品烟酒和衣着。 食品是 10 月 CPI 同比走低的 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the increase in international oil prices and the rise in prices of VA, VE, and sucralose [1] - It suggests focusing on high-performing companies in the refrigerant and vitamin sectors, as well as undervalued industry leaders and companies in the light hydrocracking sub-sector [1][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies [1][5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance and Price Changes - During the week of November 4-10, 2024, among 101 tracked chemical products, 47 saw price increases, 44 experienced declines, and 9 remained stable [1][5] - The top price gainers included PET chips, Vitamin A, Vitamin E, R134a, and dichloromethane, while the largest declines were seen in potassium chloride, hydrochloric acid, acetic acid, and DMF [1][5] Oil Market Insights - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude futures closing at $70.38 per barrel (up 1.28%) and Brent crude at $73.87 per barrel (up 1.05%) [1][5] - The report notes a slight increase in OPEC's oil production in October, with a daily output of 29.9 million barrels, up by 370,000 barrels from September [1][5] Investment Recommendations - As of November 10, 2024, the SW basic chemical sector's P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 22.54, at the 64.62% historical percentile, while the P/B ratio is 1.88, at the 14.80% historical percentile [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies with high growth potential in the refrigerant and vitamin sectors, as well as those benefiting from macroeconomic improvements and low valuations [1][5] Long-term Investment Themes - The report identifies several long-term investment themes, including the sustained high demand in the oil and gas extraction sector, the potential recovery in the semiconductor industry, and the ongoing demand for fluorochemicals and animal nutrition products [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting high-quality development of new energy storage, with solid-state batteries gaining attention. Policies on energy consumption control in the photovoltaic sector are expected to be further implemented, potentially reversing supply and demand in the silicon material segment. Price increase expectations for components are ongoing, with leading manufacturers showing high profit elasticity [1]. - The wind power sector is expected to see steady progress in domestic offshore and onshore bidding and construction, with demand likely to improve next year, leading to profit recovery in the complete machine and component segments. The new energy vehicle market is experiencing significant growth, with wholesale sales reaching 1.369 million units in October, a year-on-year increase of 55.2% [1][22]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in complete machines and casting segments that are likely to benefit from offshore wind and overseas demand. In the lithium carbonate market, prices are declining, but supply-side material segments still face profit pressure. However, raw material prices are expected to stabilize next year, alleviating price pressure and allowing for profit recovery [1]. - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its development, with companies involved in battery, material, and equipment sectors expected to benefit. The report recommends focusing on the cell segment with a favorable layout and midstream material segments with integrated layouts [1]. - In the power equipment sector, ongoing reforms in the electricity system and the release of policies to ensure high-quality development of renewable energy are expected to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid infrastructure, maintaining high demand for related grid equipment [1]. - The hydrogen energy sector is also being driven by policy support, with recommendations to focus on electrolyzer manufacturers with cost and technological advantages, as well as companies benefiting from hydrogen infrastructure construction [1]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In October, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.369 million units, marking a 55.2% year-on-year increase and an 11.2% month-on-month increase [22]. - Ningde Times has begun sample verification of solid-state batteries, with plans for a semi-solid-state battery to undergo vehicle testing by 2026 [20][23]. Photovoltaic and Wind Power - The report highlights the production of 450W per square meter for the first batch of perovskite components by Jidian Energy, with an efficiency of 16.1% [27]. - Strategic cooperation agreements have been signed for a 16GW HPBC battery project, with the first phase of 6GW capacity expected to be completed by 2025 [28]. Hydrogen Energy - The National People's Congress has passed the Energy Law, clarifying the energy attributes of hydrogen [30]. - The Sichuan Provincial Government has issued an action plan to promote the development and application of the hydrogen energy industry chain from 2024 to 2027 [30]. Company Announcements - Zhijiang Co. plans to repurchase shares worth 30-60 million yuan, while Jinlei Co. intends to repurchase shares worth 40-70 million yuan [31]. - Trina Solar plans to sell its 5GW component factory in the U.S. to FREYR for a total consideration of 1 billion yuan in cash and preferred notes [31].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][3]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in Q3 performance, transitioning from a loss to a profit, with a strong ability to control costs [3]. - The company is expected to continue its cost reduction efforts, which may enhance profitability in the future [3]. - The forecasted earnings per share for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to -0.04, 1.06, and 1.56 RMB respectively, reflecting a significant change in expectations [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 54,347.86 million RMB, a decrease of 9.39% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.84 million RMB, down 107.16% year-on-year [3][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 3.90 million RMB, a decrease of 80.02% year-on-year but a recovery from previous losses [3][5]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved to 8.67%, an increase of 5.62 percentage points from the previous quarter [3][5]. Production and Sales - The company shipped over 57 GW of battery modules in the first three quarters of 2024, with N-type components accounting for approximately 63% of total shipments [3]. - In Q3 2024, the company shipped 18.5 GW of battery modules, with N-type components making up about 75% of the total [3]. Cost Control and Capacity Expansion - The company plans to exceed 100 GW of module production capacity by the end of 2024, with N-type battery capacity reaching 70 GW [3]. - The sales cost of battery modules in Q3 2024 was approximately 0.84 RMB/W, reflecting a decrease of about 11% from the previous quarter [3]. Valuation - The adjusted earnings per share forecasts for 2024-2026 are -0.04, 1.06, and 1.56 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of -523.4, 17.4, and 11.8 times [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in net profit, with a 116.67% year-on-year decrease in the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to impairment losses [3]. - Despite the profit decline, the company is actively pursuing its overseas strategy and has shown a robust cash flow with a net inflow of 39.89 billion RMB in Q3 2024 [3]. - The company has restructured its 5GW solar module factory in the U.S., which is expected to enhance its profitability in the American market [3]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 631.47 billion RMB, a decrease of 22.16% year-on-year [3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is adjusted to -0.29 RMB, with subsequent years forecasted at 1.73 RMB for 2025 and 2.21 RMB for 2026 [3][4]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 56.79 billion RMB, with a circulating share count of 2,179.37 million [2]. Business Performance - The company shipped nearly 16.5GW of solar modules in Q3 2024, with significant contributions from the U.S. market [3]. - The distributed system sales volume approached 1GW, while the mounting structure shipments reached about 2GW, with over 70% being tracking mounts [3]. - The energy storage segment saw shipments of approximately 850MWh, with a notable increase in gross margin [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected P/E ratios are -89.2 for 2024, 15.1 for 2025, and 11.8 for 2026 [4][6]. - The projected EBITDA for 2024 is 2,665 million RMB, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years [4][5]. - The company’s revenue is expected to decline by 25.5% in 2024, followed by growth rates of 22.7% and 22.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][6].

Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[1] - The PBOC lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by a total of 30 basis points in July and September[1] - The monetary policy toolbox has expanded significantly, including support for real estate and stock market stability measures[1] Economic Outlook - The PBOC's monetary policy is expected to become more proactive and flexible, with an emphasis on maintaining reasonable liquidity and promoting a moderate recovery in prices[1] - The upcoming political bureau meeting in November-December will likely set the tone for 2025's economic work arrangements[1] - Global inflation is declining slowly, and there are risks associated with the rapid economic slowdown in Europe and the US[2] International Considerations - The report highlights the need to closely monitor changes in overseas central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts[1] - The Fed's rate cuts of 50 basis points in September and 25 basis points in November have initiated a global easing cycle, with further cuts expected in December[1] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slow global inflation recovery, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US, and increasing complexity in international relations[1]