证券研究报告 金融公司 | 公司深度 | 中国太保 ( 601601 ) "长航行动"引领公司迈向新征程 诗券必闻读核李末页的支委声明 2024年07月 31 日 研究报告 | 报考委总 随着"长栽行动" 连征不断杂进，公司 NBV 本受长易色线增长。2021 辛利，公司王式发布"长 栽行动"，明境装出了"一化、两色、四新"的未未感感自标。2022 年1月1日，公司总动了 方病 18 个月的"杀栽行动"一病工程，变点固疫外勤进行转型。截至 2023 年 6 月，"杀栽行 动"一期工程顺利秩序。公司的 NBV 台 202203 以条违线四个争度实现正增长且增速领先网 业。在"长栽行动"一病工程教育之际，公司顺劳总动了"长栽行动"二病工程。后续简春公 司给您进程持续深化，给您成效夯坚强步坚现，公司的 NBV 未现有坚长期向好。 | 分析师及联系人 刘奇氏 SAC: $0590522100001 水 哥 岑 诗券必闻读核李永真的支委声明 1 / 30 金融公司 | 公司深度 2024-07 月 31 日 中国太保(601601) "长航行动"引领公司迈向新征程 幸低金路/保险 IItsओ 经济评选：买入（贷款） 3 ...

Economic Outlook - The July Politburo meeting expressed a cautious view on the current economic situation, indicating that the economy is "generally stable, with progress amid stability" compared to the more optimistic April meeting[41] - The meeting highlighted insufficient domestic effective demand and the challenges of transitioning between old and new growth drivers[41] Policy Measures - The meeting emphasized the need for stronger counter-cyclical adjustments and proposed to implement proactive fiscal policies and stable monetary policies[13] - Specific fiscal measures include accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds, which may support infrastructure investment[15] - The use of approximately 300 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement was announced[16] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains stable, with expectations for structural monetary policies to be introduced, including potential interest rate cuts and the use of various monetary policy tools[18][77] - The aim is to enhance financial support for the real economy and reduce overall financing costs[18] Investment and Reform - Expected reforms include expanding market access for private investment and eliminating foreign investment restrictions in the manufacturing sector, which could boost investment in the short term[6][64] - The meeting indicated that some reform measures are likely to accelerate in the second half of the year, potentially stimulating economic growth[91] Risk Management - The meeting underscored the importance of risk prevention in key areas such as real estate, local government debt, and capital markets, with a focus on enhancing investor confidence and market stability[21][100] - Geopolitical risks and inconsistencies between policies and expectations were noted as potential challenges[6][68]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for nuclear power operators, specifically China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power, due to the expected increase in market pricing elasticity of nuclear electricity [4][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the majority of nuclear power pricing is based on planned electricity prices, which are stable and ensure overall performance for operators. A smaller portion is based on market electricity prices, which are influenced by supply and demand but remain relatively stable. As marketization of electricity accelerates, the proportion of market-based transactions is expected to increase, particularly in provinces with tight electricity supply such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong, leading to potential upward price elasticity for nuclear power [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Review of Nuclear Power Pricing - The evolution of nuclear power pricing has transitioned from a "one plant one price" model to a "planned + market-based" model. This shift began with the introduction of benchmark pricing in 2013, moving towards a market-oriented pricing structure [15][17]. 2. Post-Reform Pricing Elasticity - The report indicates that the nuclear power pricing structure now consists of both approved prices and market prices, with the market price component gaining importance. As of 2023, the market-based electricity volume accounted for 61.4% of total nuclear electricity generation, indicating a significant shift towards market pricing [12][39]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on nuclear power operators that will benefit from the increased pricing elasticity. China Nuclear Power is noted for its stable performance and dividends, while China General Nuclear Power is expected to see performance contributions from new unit operations [12][44].

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|梅花生物（600873） 业绩符合预期，重注合成生物学 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年07月30日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年半年报实现营业收入 126 亿元，同比-7.0%；实现归母净利润 14.7 亿元，同比+7.5%； 基本每股收益 0.5 元，同比+11.1%。上半年盈利水平同比增长，主要受益于多产品的协同和 经营效率的提升。苏氨酸、98%赖氨酸销售价格同比上涨约 13%，黄原胶、苏氨酸新扩产能满 产满销，同时公司继续提升自动化和精细管理水平，综合毛利率从去年同期 18.43%提升至 19.50%。值得关注的是，公司重注合成生物学产业，实现了从基因组编辑到产品落地的全链 条，致力于用新技术推动氨基酸的进一步降本和商业化。 |分析师及联系人 许隽逸 申起昊 SAC：S0590524060003 SAC：S0590524070002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年07月30日 梅花生物(600873) 业绩符合预期，重注合成生物学 | --- | - ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|海大集团（002311） 饲料销量逆势增长，养殖业绩显著改善 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年07月30日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司披露 2024 半年度报告，实现营收 522.96 亿元，同比下降 0.84%：归母净利 21.25 亿元， 同比增长 93.15%。2024H1 公司饲料外销量 1081 万吨（同比+8%），其中①水产料外销量同比 增约 10%，普水料同比增 15%-20%；高档膨化鱼料同比持平微增；虾蟹料同比增 8%，其中南美 白对虾料同比增约 20%；②禽料外销量同比增约 14%；③猪料外销量同比下滑 7%；④海外销量 超 100 万吨（同比增 30+%）。种苗实现营收约 7 亿元，同比微降。动保实现营收 4.66 亿元（同 比-23%）。 |分析师及联系人 王明琦 马鹏 SAC：S0590524040003 SAC：S0590524050001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年07月30日 海大集团(002311) 饲料销量逆势增长，养殖业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Huazhu Group, marking the first coverage of the company [6][16]. Core Views - Huazhu Group has established a competitive barrier through a combination of brand strength, technological innovation, and traffic management, positioning itself as a platform-based enterprise. The company has significant expansion potential both domestically and internationally, with a focus on middle and high-end markets [9][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huazhu Group, founded in 2005, has become one of the fastest-growing hotel groups globally, with a hotel count CAGR of 20.8% and revenue CAGR of 18.0% from 2013 to 2023. As of March 2024, the company operates 9,817 hotels with 955,700 rooms across 30+ brands in 18 countries [22][25]. Industry Update - The hotel industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with supply returning to pre-pandemic levels. By the end of 2023, the number of hotels in China had recovered to 96% of pre-pandemic levels, driven by sustained leisure demand and rational business travel recovery [9][59]. Core Advantages - Huazhu's competitive edge lies in its integrated approach of brand, technology, and traffic management. The company is well-positioned to capture market share as it continues to expand into smaller cities and enhance its brand portfolio through mergers and internal integration [9][14]. Key Highlights - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 242.4 billion, CNY 261.2 billion, and CNY 281.1 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 10.8%, 7.7%, and 7.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be CNY 42.5 billion, CNY 49.1 billion, and CNY 56.7 billion for the same years [16][12]. Financial Data and Valuation - The report anticipates a three-year CAGR of 8.7% for revenue and 11.6% for net profit, with price-to-earnings ratios of 16x, 14x, and 12x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [16][12]. Investment Focus - The report emphasizes Huazhu's ongoing expansion into lower-tier cities and its potential for upward brand migration, alongside a gradual internationalization strategy that is expected to enhance profitability [9][17].

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|商贸零售（2145） 消费税改或影响利益分配，关注百货、 免税机遇 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年07月29日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 基于我们对于消费税改革的探讨，改革或稳步推进，短期增量贡献有限，但是分配格局或有变 化。就央地利益再分配而言，预计广东、山东、上海等地的财力绝对值增长更明显，贵州、云 南、甘肃等西部省份财力边际提升更积极。着眼产业链利益再分配，征税环节后移有望使得强 势零售商短期受益。消费税收入稳步导向消费地有望激励地方政府改善消费环境，助力地方 消费长期向好，建议关注王府井等百货零售商。 基于征税范围扩充的预期，有税渠道商品价格上行或有望利好免税渠道, 建议关注中国中免。 |分析师及联系人 邓文慧 曹晶 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590523080001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 23 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年07月29日 商贸零售 消费税改或影响利益分配，关注百货、免税 机遇 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 | 行业专题研究 | 物流 (214203) 快递行业６月数据解读： 电商促销前置 爭致 6 月件量增速故缓 诗券必闻读核李某页的支委声明 2024年07月29日 报告 | 报告委总 交 618 发贷访更影响, 6 月快递件圣程浅吗茶, 6 月增速环比 5 月下降 6.1pct。别除 国家邮政 爲數據口经调类影响后，6 月準標价格同比降幅为 7. 73%，降幅环比 5 月扩大 1. 11pct，爲新 地区出现价格途动，行业仍处于温科充量状态。6 月份，总统乘中放将数 CR8 为 85.3，环比 5 月装升 0.1. 伴随行业件查增选货期上待，价格充备类体可控，预计 2024 年快递长块盈利能 力相对 2023 年建茶纾友，看好细介行业是科能力稳定的无关标的。 | 分析师及联系人 手奇 SAC: $0590522120002 首页_ 手夫琛 靖秀必闻读核李永真的支委声明 1 / 11 行业务党 | 行业专题研究 2024-07 月 29 日 物流 快递行业 6 月 数据解读： 电商促销前置导致 6 月件量增速故缘 赵京难汉： 受予大齐（疫材） 上达成汉： 这予大方 相对大血大分 10% ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|食品饮料（2134） 乳企渠道调整见效，下半年销售或修复 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年07月28日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 从 2024 年春节后开始，经过 4-5 个月，我们认为，乳企的渠道调整工作已取得一定成效，已 步入扫尾阶段，目前终端产品价格企稳甚至部分产品已经回升，大日期产品加速消化。供给端 来看，上游产能加速去化，且高温天气下原奶单产降低，供应量或减弱；需求端来看，下半年 双节等带动消费量增长，我们看好渠道调整后乳企有望在业绩端有所改善，推荐伊利股份、蒙 牛乳业、新乳业。 |分析师及联系人 刘景瑜 陆冀为 SAC：S0590524030005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 10 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年07月28日 食品饮料 乳企渠道调整见效，下半年销售或修复 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 食品饮料 沪深300 -40% -23% -7% 10% 2023/7 2023/11 2024/3 2024/7 相关报告 1、《食品饮料：2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.861 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.111 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.07% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.089 billion yuan, an increase of 1.68% year-on-year. The performance met expectations [10][11] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [10] - The core subsidiary, Yichang Renfu, achieved a revenue of 4.502 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.78%, and a net profit of 1.425 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.59%, which was the main driver of the company's performance [11] Financial Summary - The company expects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 26.318 billion yuan, 28.282 billion yuan, and 30.375 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.31%, 7.46%, and 7.40% [13] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.465 billion yuan, 2.828 billion yuan, and 3.207 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 15.51%, 14.71%, and 13.38% respectively [13] - The company is a leader in the anesthetic drug market, and the report maintains a "Buy" rating [13] Business Development - The company is expanding its product line around its core anesthetic products, with new approvals for various formulations aimed at different medical scenarios, including ICU pain management and cancer pain [12] - The report indicates that the management expenses are expected to improve in the second half of the year [11]