Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is in a bottoming phase, with policy support expected to stabilize the market. The demand side shows signs of recovery in core cities, although it may take time to reflect in the fundamentals. New home and second-hand home transaction volumes are expected to rise steadily in June, although year-on-year declines may continue due to high base effects from the first half of 2023. The supply side is influenced by "de-inventory" policies, leading to a contraction in land supply and continued bottoming of real estate development investment. The central bank's policies for affordable housing and financing coordination mechanisms are expected to improve the financial situation of real estate companies [5][39]. Summary by Sections Investment Side: Development Investment Continues to Bottom, New Construction Area Decline Narrows - From January to May 2024, the cumulative national real estate development investment was 40,632 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points. In May alone, the investment was 9,704 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points. The decline in development investment has been influenced by a cooling land market and a decrease in new construction area [13][14]. - The cumulative new construction area from January to May 2024 was 30,090 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous months. In May, the new construction area was 6,580 million square meters, down 22.7% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4.6 percentage points [15]. - The cumulative completion area from January to May 2024 was 22,245 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous months. In May, the completion area was 3,384.7 million square meters, down 18.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points [18]. Sales Side: Policy Support Boosts Market Confidence, Sales Marginally Improve - From January to May 2024, the cumulative national commodity housing sales area was 36,642 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative sales amount was 35,665 billion yuan, down 27.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous months. In May, the sales area was 7,390 million square meters, down 20.7% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.1 percentage points. The sales amount in May was 7,598 billion yuan, down 26.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4.1 percentage points [20][22]. - The cumulative average sales price of commodity housing from January to May 2024 was 9,733 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.4%. In May, the average sales price was 10,282 yuan per square meter, down 7.2% year-on-year, but up 0.9% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in market activity [26]. Financial Side: Sales Receipts Under Pressure, Domestic Funds Show Recovery - From January to May 2024, the cumulative funding for real estate development companies was 42,571 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous months. In May, the funding was 8,535 billion yuan, down 21.8% year-on-year, but showing a month-on-month increase of 2.2% [30]. - The cumulative funding sources included deposits and advance payments, personal mortgage loans, domestic loans, and self-raised funds, which were 12,584 billion, 6,191 billion, 6,810 billion, and 14,816 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -36.7%, -40.2%, -6.2%, and -9.8%. In May, the funding sources showed a slight increase in domestic loans, indicating a potential recovery in financing for real estate companies [32].

证券研究报告 行 2024年06月20日 业 报 告 前瞻研究 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 CCER 市场正式重启：趋势与影响 专 题 研 究  CCER的全称是Chinese Certified Emission Reduction，即国家核证自 愿碳减排量，是指对我国境内可再生能源、林业碳汇、甲烷利用等项 目的温室气体减排效果进行量化核证，并在国家温室气体自愿减排交 易注册登记系统中登记的温室气体减排量。  2024 年 1 月 22 日，全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场启动仪式在北京 作者 举行。CCER交易采取挂牌协议、大宗协议、单向竞价及其他符合规定 分析师：郭荆璞 的交易方式，以“每吨二氧化碳当量价格”为计价单位。目前，全国温 执业证书编号：S0590523070003 室气体自愿减排交易主要以存量 CCER 交易为主。CCER 市场开市后， 邮箱：jpguo@glsc.com.cn CCER成交均价呈上升趋势，利好可申报CCER的行业。  重点排放单位的履约抵消为CCER需求的主要来源。控排企业目前采用 CCER抵消碳排放履约的比重较低，随着碳配额供给机制的完善以及碳 配额总量逐步收紧的政策趋势 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年06月20日 司 报 告 中联重科(000157) │ 行 业： 机械设备/工程机械 公 投资评级： 买入（首次） 司 当前价格： 7.84元 深 多元化产品及海外差异化布局构筑核心竞争力 目标价格： 9.38元 度 研 投资要点： 究 基本数据 公司为国内工程机械龙头企业，混凝土机械、起重机械等传统优势产业的 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 8,677.99/8,652.47 市场地位稳中有升；土方机械、高空作业机械、矿山机械等新兴潜力业务 流通A股市值(百万元) 55,432.80 加速发展。公司加大海外市场销售力度，积极发挥智能制造规模化优势。 每股净资产(元) 6.59 ➢ 传统工程机械行业需求有望回暖，高空作业车需求仍具有空间 资产负债率(%) 54.85 起重机、混凝土机械、土方机械等传统工程机械产品主要受到基建投资、 一年内最高/最低(元) 9.53/6.09 国标切换后的置换等因素影响，2021年5月至今国内需求持续下滑，中央 财政在 2023Q4 增发国债 1 万亿元，2024 年有望拉动设备需求逐步提升。 股价相对走势 中国高空作业平台市场起步较晚，近年高速发展，2 ...

证券研究报告 行 2024年06月20日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 传媒 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 乘技术革命之风，行消费复苏之路 相对大盘走势 投 ——传媒互联网行业 2024 年度中期投资策略 传媒 沪深300 资 10% 策 展望 2024 年下半年，我们认为传媒互联网行业的投资机会将围绕 3 条主 略 -10% 线：AI技术探索不断突破认知边界，应用生态有望加速落地；港股市场情 绪回暖，头部平台企业有望估值修复；线下消费需求高企，旅游出行及电 -30% 影院线有望维持高景气度。 -50% 2023/6 2023/10 2024/2 2024/6 ➢ 新兴技术革命带来的产业机会 2024年，海内外生成式AI加速演进。我们观察到两条明确的产业趋势：技 作者 术侧，大厂聚焦多模态能力提升，同时开源模型加速迭代；价格侧，海内 分析师：丁子然 外大模型“提质降价”趋势显著，AI应用成本端有望持续优化。二者共同 执业证书编号：S0590523080003 推动之下，AI C端应用加速落地。其中，搜索问答和情感陪伴成为率先落 邮箱：dingzr@glsc.com.cn 地的应用场景，有望孵化 ...

——金融工程 2024 年度中期投资策略 ➢ 行业轮动组合： 2024 年累计超额收益 8.36% 截至2024年6月7日，基于随机森林模型的可转债择券策略，2024年以来绝 对收益6.50%，相对Wind转债等权超额收益7.73%。 分析师：陆豪 执业证书编号：S0590523070001 邮箱：luhao@glsc.com.cn 分析师：康作宁 执业证书编号：S0590524010003 邮箱：kangzn@glsc.com.cn 分析师：陈阅川 执业证书编号：S0590524050004 邮箱：chenyc@glsc.com.cn 1 | --- | --- | |--------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 图表 1 ： | 宏观环境变量选取 ............................................. 4 | | 图表 2 ： | 宏观环境变量(平稳化处理)当期变化及影响系数 .................... 4 ...

Core Insights - In active investment, higher volatility may lead to lower returns, suggesting that appropriate allocation to low or negatively correlated assets can effectively reduce portfolio volatility and improve risk-return ratios [6][7][20] - Since 2021, the excess returns of momentum factors and low volatility factors have shown a significant negative correlation, as have the excess returns in the financial and manufacturing sectors, and in the food and beverage and cyclical sectors [6][40] - This year, market style allocation has been more significant than industry allocation due to extreme valuation gaps between styles and improved earnings expectations for the second quarter, indicating a potential rebalancing of styles within the year [6][9] Low Correlation and Active Investment - The relationship between risk and return is not always positive; increased volatility can lead to decreased returns. In the A-share equity fund market, higher volatility has been associated with lower returns, while in the more mature US equity market, lower volatility has been linked to higher returns [20][60] - Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that low correlation between assets can enhance risk-return ratios. In practice, combining factors with similar risk-return distributions but lower correlations results in higher risk-return ratios [7][60] - When constructing portfolios, managers can select high-quality companies and balance risk by choosing low-correlation styles or sectors, such as combining momentum and stability styles or different sectors like banking and manufacturing [7][40] Market Sentiment and Valuation - Recent market sentiment has shown that style differentiation has been extreme, reflecting a low-risk appetite in a macro environment with low elasticity, leading to a focus on stability and cost-effectiveness [9][64] - Valuation levels have shifted, with industries such as automotive, computing, and electronics experiencing an increase in relative valuation premiums, while sectors like telecommunications and food and beverage have seen declines [16][64] - The sentiment index (GLDI) indicates a decrease in emotional heat across various sectors, including TMT, cyclical, manufacturing, and consumer sectors, suggesting a cautious market outlook [67][84] Industry Performance - The performance of various industries has varied significantly, with sectors like coal and banking showing strong gains, while sectors such as comprehensive and computing have lagged behind [28][33] - The adjustment of earnings expectations has been notable, with industries like agriculture and textiles seeing upward revisions, while real estate and media have faced downward adjustments [58][83] - The overall market sentiment indicates a shift towards growth-oriented sectors, with small-cap and growth stocks outperforming large-cap and value stocks in recent weeks [28][33]

证券研究报告 行 2024年06月19日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 房地产 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 专 美国商业地产市场动荡对银行业影响的风险评估 房地产 沪深300 题 20% 研 究 ➢ 美国商业地产基本面承压，商业地产投资呈下降趋势 0% 商业地产市场规模持续扩张，2023年达到24.67万亿美元，占房地产市场比例约21.50%。 2023年，写字楼空置率达16.90%，新开工量减少；零售业消费强劲，空置率下降；工 -20% 业和物流地产空置率上涨，但核心区域需求旺盛；多户型住宅空置率上升，开工量减少； -40% 旅游业回暖，酒店入住率提升。由于联邦基金利率高企，资本化率上升，商业地产价格 2023/6 2023/10 2024/2 2024/6 指数自2022年7月至2024年4月跌幅达24.58%。整体投资方面，商业地产投资规模 整体下降，投资回报率因资产价值下跌降至负数。 作者 ➢ 美国商业地产投资回报和规模双降，REITs表现相对稳健 分析师：杨灵修 在美国，商业地产投资主要由私人投资者主导，2023 年 REITs 基金和私营企业的市场 执业证书编号：S ...

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call is associated with Guolian Securities Research Institute, focusing on investment management and advisory services. Core Points and Arguments - The call is intended exclusively for clients on the whitelist of Guolian Securities Research Institute, emphasizing the selective nature of the audience [1] - It is clearly stated that the content of the meeting does not constitute investment advice, highlighting the importance of independent decision-making by participants [1] - Participants are reminded that they bear the responsibility for their investment decisions and any associated risks [1] - Guolian Securities disclaims any liability for losses incurred by individuals using the content of the meeting [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call underscores the regulatory framework surrounding investor suitability, indicating a focus on compliance and risk management in investment practices [1]

根据证券期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 为经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发、引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利好的各位领导晚上好我是国联家电的贺本东今天晚上管理员临时有事 主讲全程其实主要就是汇报这个报告就是空调格局的变与不变主要先把结论给这个各位领导汇报一下吧就是整体上好像有很多领导只关心结论就是大概我们研究下来就是格局肯定是没什么问题的这是第一个就是不用去担心什么这个头部公司会被比较大的这个冲击 然后第二个就是怎么看待这轮二线的一个崛起然后我们觉得短期淘宝份额大概率是一个平稳或者说略微可上可下就是一个载幅波动这么一个状况就是二线整体上可能份额还有一定的上升空间但是相比前两年这个空间肯定是缩小的特别多的 然后第三个关于价格战这个问题就是看大家怎么去认知这个价格战其实从整个价格的一个调整幅度来说的话其实从去年开始到现在整 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 06 月 19 日 增量明确，关注龙头 商社行业 2024 年度中期投资策略 年中复盘:年初判断基本验证 > 年初我们对 2024年的投资方向给出研判: 1) 看好消费出海的投资方向; 2)美护板块亮点在于供给侧;3)优选顺周期个股。从 2024年一季度板块 业绩综述看, 上述判断基本得到验证。1）海外业务增速维持强劲。2）受 益于平价出行大趋势,景区、OTA 收入/净利润增速表现靠前。3) 国货化 妆品公司整体维持较强业绩韧性。4)顺周期出行服务细分行业收入及利润 增速明显回落,其中,人力资源及会展服务相对维持较为稳健的增长。 A 高景气度细分:趋势延续、迷步兑现 从板块内部比较看,消费出海、胶原蛋白及平价出游赛道延续景气并有效 兑现。我们认为,中国企业供应链优势、运营能力显著,随着出海探索时 间及经验积累,有望实现收入、盈利能力双击。内需方面,重组胶原蛋白 赛道高壁垒、低渗透,2024年在毁料/护肤上的产业化持续深化,医美注射 市场亦有望加速;平价出游本质是消费降级下消费心理和行为的转变,需 求持续性可期,且各地旅游资源供给不断丰富有望进一步驱动趋势延续。 > 格局优化:龙头公 ...