图：公司股权激励业绩考核指标 For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com HTISG and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding the analysts responsible for the content of this document, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research report. Sales, trader ...

研究报告Research Report 1 Mar 2024 森麒麟 Qingdao Sentury Tire (002984 CH) 2023 年归母净利润同比增长 70.88% 2023 Net Profit +70.88% YoY [观Ta点bl聚e_焦yem Inevie1s] tment Focus [Tab维le_持Inf优o] 于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM  2023 年归母净利润同比增长 70.88%。2023 年公司实现营业收 入 78.42 亿元，同比增长 24.63%；实现归母净利润 13.69 亿 现价 Rmb31.38 元，同比增长 70.88%；实现扣非净利润 13.05 亿元，同比增长 目标价 Rmb43.52 46.88%。在海外市场，公司高品质、高性能产品在欧美轮胎市 HTI ESG 4.0-5.0-3.0 场具备高性价比的竞争优势，订单需求持续处于供不应求状 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appen ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/纺织与服装 证券研究报告 海外信息点评 2024年02月29日 [Table_InvestInfo] 亚马逊促销季创历史新高，提供工具服务 投资评级 优于大市 维持 中国卖家 市场表现 [Table_Summary] [Table_QuoteInfo] 投资要点： 13.04% 纺织与服装 海通综指 7.91% 23Q4季度收入增速创5个季度新高。亚马逊2023年全年收入5748亿美元， 2.78%  同比增11.83%，营业利润369亿美元，同比增200.88%，净利润304亿美元， -2.36% 同比增1217.74%，单4季度营收1700亿美元，同比增13.9%，经营利润132 -7.49% 亿美元，同比增383%，净利润106亿美元，同比增3721.58%。单季度收入同 -12.63% 2023/2 2023/5 2023/8 2023/11 比增速为 2022 年 Q4 以来新高，22Q4/23Q1/23Q2/23Q3 收入增速分别为 8.6%%/9.4%/10.8%/12.6%，对应参考同期收入指引分别为 2%~8%（22Q4） 资料来源：海通证券研究 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品/食品加工 证券研究报告 洽洽食品（002557）公司公告点评 2024 年 02 月 28 日 002557 CH Chacha Food Rating: OUTPERFORM Target Price: Rmb51.00 Yuxuan Zhang yx.zhang@htisec.com 单四季度利润率压力趋缓，期待 24 年营 收/利润双复苏 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 受春节跨期&葵花籽原料价格上涨影响，23 年营收利润有所承压。据公司业 绩快报，2023 年由于第一季度和第四季度均受到春节跨期因素的影响，因此 营收有所下滑。不过 21-23 年营收 CAGR=6.64%，整体收入依然保持稳健成长。 盈利能力端，参照业绩快报，受到葵花籽原料采购成本上升的影响，23 年公 司实现归母净利率 11.83%，同比 22 年降低 2.35pct。我们认为，23 年公司盈 利表现受到上游原材料价格上涨的不利影响，不过随着后续上游原物料价格 压力趋缓，期待公司利润率重新回归向上通道。 公司 23Q4 营收有所下滑，我们认为主要系受到 24 年春节较晚导 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [8]. Core Insights - BYD's launch of the Qin Plus Honor Edition at a starting price of Rmb79,800, promoting the slogan 'NEV is Cheaper Than ICE', has initiated a price war in the domestic new energy vehicle (NEV) market, targeting the Rmb100k segment [5][14]. - The price war is expected to encroach upon the traditional gasoline vehicle market, with BYD's sales in 2024 projected to exceed last year's 3 million units due to aggressive pricing strategies [5][14]. - The Rmb100-150k market segment is anticipated to be the core battlefield of this price war, while competition in the Rmb300k+ segment may slow down, benefiting new players like Li Auto [5][14]. - Domestic competition is intensifying, with Tesla focusing on overseas markets in 2024 and Chinese automakers like XPeng and Li Auto accelerating their export strategies to regions like the Middle East [6][14]. - Geely's luxury brand Lotus has successfully listed on NASDAQ, marking a significant milestone as the first whole vehicle IPO in the US market for 2024, with a market value of approximately $9.294 billion [6][14]. - Apple has reportedly canceled its Apple Car project, redirecting its focus to generative AI, citing intense competition in the NEV sector and challenges in achieving its ambitious automotive goals [7][14]. - In the third week post-holiday (02.19-02.25), domestic car insurance registrations rebounded to 261,000 units, with NEV penetration reaching a record high of 42.4% [7][14]. Summary by Sections Price War and Market Dynamics - The domestic NEV industry has officially started a price war, with BYD leading the charge by reducing prices and promoting NEVs as cheaper alternatives to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles [5][14]. - Other automakers, including Changan and Wuling, are following suit, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [5][14]. Overseas Expansion - As competition in the domestic market escalates, several NEV companies are accelerating their overseas expansion strategies, particularly in the Middle East and Africa [6][14]. - XPeng and Li Auto are establishing partnerships and networks to facilitate their entry into these markets [6][14]. IPO and Market Valuation - Geely's Lotus brand has made a notable entry into the US stock market, highlighting the growing interest and investment in the electric vehicle sector [6][14]. Apple’s Strategic Shift - Apple's decision to abandon its car manufacturing ambitions in favor of generative AI reflects the challenges faced by new entrants in the competitive automotive landscape [7][14]. Market Performance Metrics - The rebound in car insurance registrations and the record penetration rate of NEVs indicate a positive trend for the industry, despite the competitive pressures [7][14].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Nongfu Spring [3][7]. Core Views - Nongfu Spring is positioned as the leading company in China's packaged water industry, leveraging dual advantages of brand and channel to achieve high turnover and large-scale operations [5][7]. - The report highlights the company's strong growth potential, with projected revenue growth rates of 25.8%, 17.2%, and 14.4% for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [5][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a high return on equity (ROE) of around 35%, benefiting from its high sales profit margins and asset turnover [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nongfu Spring has evolved into China's largest packaged water company, expanding its product offerings to include juices, functional drinks, and tea beverages, thus forming a dual growth strategy of "packaged water + beverages" [7][8]. Industry Analysis - The soft drink industry in China is characterized by low barriers to entry and high competition, with a projected growth rate of 3%-4% for the packaged water segment [5][13]. - The report notes that the per capita consumption of packaged water in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, indicating substantial growth potential [13][22]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Nongfu Spring are set at RMB 418.1 billion, RMB 490.1 billion, and RMB 560.6 billion for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 109.8 billion, RMB 129.3 billion, and RMB 148.5 billion [6][19]. - The company is projected to achieve an EPS of RMB 0.98, RMB 1.15, and RMB 1.32 for the same years, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][19]. Market Positioning - Nongfu Spring's market share in the packaged water segment is 33.8%, with a focus on high-quality natural water sources, which differentiates it from competitors [28][30]. - The company has successfully captured market share from competitors like Wahaha and Master Kong, which have seen declines in their market positions [30]. Cost Structure and Efficiency - The report indicates that Nongfu Spring benefits from economies of scale in raw material procurement, with PET prices approximately 80-90% of the national average [5][50]. - The company's logistics and transportation costs are expected to decrease as it optimizes its water source locations, enhancing operational efficiency [54][59].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the global photovoltaic and energy storage sectors in 2023, indicating that the industry chain remains prosperous. It recommends focusing on leading battery manufacturers with overseas expansion advantages and sufficient technological reserves, as well as overseas large-scale energy storage companies with high profitability and ample orders [3]. Core Insights - In China, the LNG prices have continued to decline, with the average price at $7.98 per million British thermal units, down 6.09% from the previous week. The market price is at $3923.74 per million British thermal units, down 3.42% [6][10]. - The report highlights that China's thermal power projects are progressing steadily, providing long-term stability for electricity supply. The average price of power cells continues to decline, with expectations of a significant recovery in battery production around July [3][20]. - In the U.S., the report notes a 332% year-on-year increase in new large-scale energy storage installations, with an expected growth rate of over 40% in 2024 [3][20]. - The European market is projected to see a 30% year-on-year increase in new photovoltaic systems, with over 58GW expected to be installed in 2023 [3][20]. - The report emphasizes the significance of the "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading" in China, marking a milestone in the country's climate change response [3]. Summary by Sections 1. China Energy Market and ESG Updates - LNG prices have decreased, with the average price at 4864 RMB per ton, reflecting a decline of 5.55% week-on-week [9]. - The average purchase price of electricity in March 2024 is reported at 0.517 RMB/kWh in Guangdong, with a month-on-month increase of 1.8% [13]. - The report indicates that thermal power projects are advancing steadily, ensuring long-term electricity supply stability [15]. 2. U.S. Energy Market and ESG Updates - The report notes a significant increase in new large-scale energy storage installations, with December 2023 seeing an addition of 1.23GW, a year-on-year increase of 332% [3]. - The expected total installed capacity for solar energy in the U.S. for 2024 is projected to be 53.5GW [3]. 3. European Energy Market and ESG Updates - The report anticipates that Europe will install over 58GW of new photovoltaic systems in 2023, representing a 30% year-on-year growth [3]. - The report also mentions significant investments in offshore wind projects and the approval of major contracts in Germany [3]. 4. Indian Energy Market and ESG Updates - India's natural gas consumption is expected to more than double by 2050, with the government actively expanding renewable energy capacity [3]. 5. Japan and South Korea Energy Market and ESG Updates - The report highlights Japan's plans to begin discharging treated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant and South Korea's advancements in floating offshore wind projects [3]. 6. Southeast Asia and Other Energy Markets and ESG Updates - The report notes that Qatar's North Field gas project will continue to expand, and Laos has signed an agreement to develop a 1200MW wind power project [3].

研究报告Research Report 22 Feb 2024 名创优品 MINISO Group (MNSO US) 名创优品季报前瞻：旧岁收官圆满，新年增长可期 Q2FY24 Preview: Old Year Concludes Successfully, New Year Promises Growth Ahead [观Ta点bl聚e_焦yem Inevie1s] tment Focus [Tab维le_持Inf优o] 于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：名创优品预计在3月中公布2024财年2Q（23年10-12月）财 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 报。受益国内低基数，海外代理市场新店备货和直营市场强劲表现， 现价 US$18.59 我们预计公司2Q收入37.9亿元，同比增长52%；经调归母净利润6.3 目标价 US$27.00 亿元，同比增长73%，经调归母净利率16.7%。 市值 US$5.95bn 点评：我们（1）预计国内收入 23.4亿元，同比增长55%。①名创国 日交易额 (3个月均 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report MP Materials (MP US) Scott Darling Axel Leven [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis 我们预计 MP Materials 2023 年第四季度的业绩市场反应为中性，公司录得调整后的净亏损为 400 万美元，而市场 预期亏损为 860 万美元，这是由于连续强劲的运营业绩被全球稀土氧化物价格持续疲软所抵消。该公司在 2024 年 向客户销售了约 100 吨氧化镨钕，并表示在 2024 年和 2025 年的生产中有很大一部分是"确认的购买承诺"。鉴于中 国最近对稀土出口和技术实施限制，参见内容 ，我们认为该公司中期前景乐观，加之结构性的稀土供需紧张，我 们重申其"优于大市"评级。 二阶段继续爬坡; 三阶段今年开始投产: MP Materials 调整后的净亏损为 400 万美元，市场预期为 860 万美元，收入 为 4,120 万美元(市场预期为 4,550 万美元)，调整后的 EBITDA 为 130 万美元(市场预期为 100 万美元)，这是由于全 球稀土氧化物价格疲 ...

研究报告Research Report 27 Feb 2024 包钢股份 Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union (600010 CH) 首次覆盖：西部钢铁龙头企业，多维度深入钢铁市场 Leading steel enterprises in the western region, penetrated into the steel market in multiple dimensions: Initiation [观Ta点bl聚e_焦yemInevie1s] tmentFocus [Table_In首fo次] 覆盖优于大市Initiate with (PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary) OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 包钢股份是西部钢铁领军企业。包钢股份是全球最大的稀土工 现价 Rmb1.53 业基地和中国钢铁行业的重要基地，是中国西部地区最大的钢铁上 目标价 Rmb2.04 市公司之一。包头钢铁（集团）有限责任公司为包钢股份的控股股 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-4.0 东，持股比例为55.24%，实际控制人为 ...