[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/机械工业/新能源板块 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024年03月02日 [Table_InvestInfo] 浙江建立电网侧储能示范项目奖补机制，山东 投资评级 优于大市 维持 推动多元新型储能发展 市场表现 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： [Table_QuoteInfo] 4.90% -1.94% 新能源板块 海通综指  2024年2月第2-3周储能项目招标规模达351MWh。根据储能与电力市场公众 号的统计分析，2024年2月第2-3周，储能招标规模达351.56MWh，相较于2 -8.78% 月第1周的5.97GWh，环比减少93%，主要包括华能浙江岱山1号海上风电项 -15.63% 目新能源配套储能租赁服务招标项目、三峡水利2024年度用户侧储能设备框架 -22.47% 协议采购项目。本周进入在建/并网投运的储能项目达 434.40MWh，相较于 2 -29.31% 月第 1 周的 674MWh，环比减少 35%，主要包括金湾华发储能电站 2023/2 2023/5 2023/8 2023/11 （150MW/150MWh）项目（一期）的开工建 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights a balanced approach between growth and value, emphasizing the importance of identifying true growth during quarterly reports. Notable revenue growth was reported by several companies, with increases such as 154.42% for Ailisi and 205.49% for Innotec's non-COVID business [3][4]. - The pharmaceutical sector showed a recovery in February, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 8.1% and the SW Pharmaceutical Bio Index increasing by 10.5%, ranking 9th among 28 first-level industries [7][9]. - The report suggests focusing on respiratory multi-detection and innovative flu drugs due to the increased incidence of respiratory infectious diseases following the Spring Festival [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In February, the pharmaceutical sector's performance was notable, with the SW Pharmaceutical Bio Index rising by 10.5%. The best-performing sub-sectors included biological products (+14.9%), chemical pharmaceuticals (+10.9%), and chemical raw materials (+10.3%) [9][10]. - The top three individual stock performers were Antu Biology (+41.0%), Changshan Pharmaceutical (+40.1%), and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (+38.9%) [10][12]. February Portfolio Review - The February portfolio included Huatai Medical, New Industry, Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Zhi Fei Biology, WuXi AppTec, Lao Bai Xing, Tian Tan Biology, and Pai Lin Biology, with an average increase of 12.5%, outperforming the overall pharmaceutical index by 0.6 percentage points [4][5][6]. Valuation Insights - As of the end of February 2024, the pharmaceutical sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was 25.45 times, representing a premium of 88.85% compared to the overall A-share market [12].

Economic Goals - The GDP growth target for 2024 is set at around 5%, with a CPI growth target of approximately 3%, maintaining the same levels as in 2023[6] - The fiscal deficit rate is planned at 3%, with a budget deficit scale of CNY 4.06 trillion, and an increase in new local special bonds to CNY 3.9 trillion, up by CNY 100 billion from last year[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy emphasizes "appropriate strength, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement," with a focus on stabilizing growth primarily in Q2 and Q3[3] - Monetary policy aims for "flexibility and appropriateness," with expectations for further steady easing in 2024 and potential adjustments in policy rates[3] Structural Policies - Real estate policies will focus on stability, promoting the construction and supply of affordable housing while avoiding strong demand stimulation[7] - Industrial policies will prioritize advancing a modern industrial system and supporting the high-quality development of the digital economy[7] Investment and Consumption - Measures to boost consumption include increasing income, optimizing supply, and reducing restrictive measures, alongside promoting effective investment in technology innovation and new infrastructure[31] - The report highlights the need to enhance the quality and investment value of listed companies to stabilize the capital market, encouraging long-term capital inflows[32]

4 Mar 2024 4 [Table_header1] 东曹 (4042 JP) 维持中性 第三条 本数据版权归本公司所有，本公司依法保留各项权利。未经本公司事先书面许可授权，任何个人或机构不得将本数据中的评估结果用于任何营利性目的，不得对本数据进行修 改、复制、编译、汇编、再次编辑、改编、删减、缩写、节选、发行、出租、展览、表演、放映、广播、信息网络传播、摄制、增加图标及说明等，否则因此给盟浪或其他第三方造 成损失的，由用户承担相应的赔偿责任，盟浪不承担责任。 第四条 如本免责声明未约定，而盟浪网站平台载明的其他协议内容（如《盟浪网站用户注册协议》《盟浪网用户服务（含认证）协议》《盟浪网隐私政策》等）有约定的，则按其他 协议的约定执行；若本免责声明与其他协议约定存在冲突或不一致的，则以本免责声明约定为准。 SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service Disclaimer: Please read these terms and conditions below carefully and confirm your agreement and acceptance with these ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the pig farming sector, indicating that capacity reduction remains the main theme in the industry [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the normal breeding stock target has been adjusted downwards from 41 million to 39 million, indicating an oversupply in the market and a continued low price trend for pigs [4][6]. - It emphasizes the importance of cost control and flexibility in production for companies like Juxing Agriculture and Huadong Co., as well as the low market capitalization of Muyuan Foods [4][6]. - The report also notes a significant drop in prices for various aquatic products, suggesting a potential consolidation towards leading companies in the industry [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs was reported at 13.9 CNY/kg, with a slight increase of 0.5% week-on-week. However, the price of piglets decreased by 8.0% to 554 CNY/head [4]. - The new guidelines from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that the current breeding stock exceeds the normal level by 4.1%, leading to expectations of continued low price fluctuations [4][6]. Aquaculture - Most aquatic product prices have decreased, with grass carp averaging 5.7 CNY/jin, down 2.2% week-on-week. The report suggests that the industry may see further consolidation towards leading firms due to the current pressures [4][6]. Poultry - The average price of white feather broiler chicks fell by 17.1% to 3.3 CNY/chick, attributed to adverse weather and previous price surges. Future supply tightness is expected, leading to potential price increases [5][6]. Genetic Engineering - The report identifies investment opportunities in the genetically modified seed sector, driven by supportive policies and the commercialization of transgenic products [5][6]. Animal Health - The progress of African swine fever vaccine development is noted, with potential market expansion for piglets if successful [6].

盈利预测与投资评级。由于需求低于预期，我们下调业绩。我们预计公司2023-2025年归母净利润为2.26亿元（-13%）、2.62亿元 （-16%）和3.14亿元（-16%）。参考同行业公司，我们认为合理估值为2024年24.3倍PE，对应目标价为47.14元（上次目标价为 47.04元，对应2023年24.5倍PE，0%），维持"优于大市"评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------------------------|-------------|-------| | (Rmb mn) | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | | 营业收入 | 695 | | 936 1124 | 1331 | | (+/-) | 20.6% | 34.6% | 20.1% | 18.5% | | 净利润 | 195 | | 226 262 314 | | | (+/-) | 24.3% | 15.8% | 16.1% | 19.6% | | 全面摊薄 EPS (Rmb) | 1.44 | 1.6 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6][19] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 20.516 billion for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 11.862 billion, up 18% year-on-year [6][8] - The growth in performance is attributed to record net investment income from margin and clearing funds, as well as increased trading and settlement fees from LME [6] - The average daily trading volume in the cash market decreased by 16% year-on-year to HKD 1,050 billion, with a decline in IPOs and trading fee income affected by reduced A-share trading fees and RMB depreciation [6][7] - The derivatives segment achieved a record average daily trading volume, with revenue from the securities and financial derivatives segment increasing by 23% year-on-year [6][7] - The reasonable valuation range for the company is estimated to be between HKD 320.00 and HKD 333.40, corresponding to a 2024E PE of 30.7-31.9 times [7][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of HKD 20,516 million, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [8] - The net profit for 2023 was HKD 11,862 million, reflecting an 18% increase compared to the previous year [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was HKD 9.36, with projections for 2024E at HKD 10.44 [8][16] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the cash market segment was HKD 8,164 million, down 9.6% year-on-year, accounting for 40% of total revenue [6] - The derivatives segment generated revenue of HKD 6,502 million, up 23% year-on-year, representing 32% of total revenue [6] - The commodities segment reported revenue of HKD 2,188 million, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year [6] Future Projections - Estimated total revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be HKD 22,874 million, HKD 24,639 million, and HKD 26,160 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 8%, and 6% [16][19] - Net profit projections for the same years are HKD 13,231 million, HKD 14,246 million, and HKD 14,894 million, with corresponding growth rates of 12%, 7%, and 5% [16][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Budweiser Brewing Co APAC has been downgraded to "Neutral" [3][13]. Core Views - The report indicates that while revenue for Q4 2023 met expectations, overall performance was slightly below expectations, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.8% and a net profit decrease of 6.7% [9][12]. - The company is experiencing a decline in sales volume in the Korean market, with market share estimated to have decreased by approximately 150 basis points [11][12]. - The report highlights a significant increase in average price per ton, contributing to improved gross profit margins, but also notes that profit margins have been impacted by tax fluctuations [12][13]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company achieved revenue of $6.856 billion, with a sales volume of 92.77 million hectoliters and an EBITDA of $2.023 billion [9][10]. - The fourth quarter alone saw revenue of $1.293 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, while sales volume increased by only 0.6% [9][10]. - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is revised to 0.63, 0.71, and 0.77 HKD respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment due to short-term consumption pressures [13][12]. Market Insights - In the China region, sales volume decreased by 3.1% while prices increased by 14.7%, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and product mix [10][11]. - The Indian market continues to show double-digit revenue growth, primarily driven by high-end and ultra-premium products [10][11]. - The Asia Pacific East region's profit margins have declined by 3.2 percentage points, with revenue growth hindered by competitive pressures and high base effects from the previous year [11][12].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/房地产 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024年03月03日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 第 9 周新房成交同比增速回升、供销比回升 市场表现 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： [Table_QuoteInfo] 房地产 海通综指 8.56% 上周1大中城市新房成交情况：  1.02%  2024 年第 9 周 30 大中城市新房成交面积为 156 万平方米，环比前一周 -6.52% 139%，同比2023年-57%。其中一线城市销售面积36万平方米，环比前 -14.07% 一周 148%，同比 2023年-48%。二线城市销售面积 89万平方米，环比 -21.61% 前一周 137%，同比 2023年-57%。三线城市销售面积 31万平方米，环 -29.15% 比前一周135%，同比2023年-65%。 2023/3 2023/6 2023/9 2023/12 资料来源：海通证券研究所  2024年2月1日-29日30城累计成交面积404万平方米，环比2024年 1 月同期-46%，同比-66%。一线城市累计成交面积 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/机械工业/通用机械 证券研究报告 双环传动（002472）公司研究报告 2024年03月01日 首次覆盖：精密传动平台型公司，新能 源齿轮、减速器等持续发力 [Table_Summary] 投资要点：  公司是中国头部专业齿轮厂商，积极拓展减速器领域，近年来发展快速。 公司40+年专注机械传动核心部件的研制与销售，已成为中国头部的专业齿 轮产品制造商和服务商之一。公司从摩托车齿轮起家，陆续进入乘用车、工 程机械、商用车齿轮等多个领域。凭借齿轮行业多年技术与经验积累，公司 积极布局高精密减速器领域，于 2020 年成立专门从事机器人 RV 减速器的 子公司环动科技。近年来，公司发展快速，2016-2022年公司营收、归母净 利润复合增速分别为25.59%、20.97%；2022年，齿轮业务营收占比超78%， 其中乘用车齿轮营收占比超50%，是公司第一大业务。公司预告2023年归 母净利润为8.0-8.2亿元，同比增长37.44%至40.87%。  齿轮：公司抓住新能源汽车齿轮机会获取领先地位；商用车齿轮有望受益 AMT渗透率提升。 1）乘用车齿轮：抓住车用齿轮行业 ...