Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][11]. Core Insights - The company's core product sales are strong, with commercial sales revenue reaching RMB 2.00 billion, a 24.9% increase, while total revenue for 2024 was RMB 2.13 billion, reflecting a 53.1% decline primarily due to reduced licensing revenue [3][16]. - The company has effectively managed costs, resulting in a significant reduction in expense ratios across the board, with R&D expenses decreasing by 5.3% due to the transition of some outsourced clinical research services to in-house execution [4][18]. - The clinical pipeline is advancing steadily, with key programs such as Cadonilimab and Ivonescimab making progress in various trials, including those for hepatocellular carcinoma and non-small cell lung cancer [5][19][20]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of RMB 501 million for 2024, but the operating net loss narrowed by 16.7% year-over-year to RMB 660 million [3][16]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at RMB 3.41 billion, RMB 5.45 billion, and RMB 7.31 billion, respectively, with expected year-over-year growth rates of 60% and 34% in the following years [11][34]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 50 million [11][34]. Clinical Pipeline - Cadonilimab is involved in multiple clinical trials, including adjuvant treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma and combination therapies for non-small cell lung cancer [5][19]. - Ivonescimab is also progressing in various trials, including those for biliary tract cancer and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma [20][23]. - The company is expanding into antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) with several candidates entering clinical or IND application stages [10][30][31]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 96.6 per share, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 10.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [11][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Ascentage Pharma [2][21]. Core Insights - Ascentage Pharma achieved a revenue of RMB 980 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 343%, which includes a $100 million option payment from Takeda. The company reported a net loss of RMB 410 million, narrowing by 56.2% year-on-year [3][17]. - The domestic revenue performance of HQP1351 was strong, reaching RMB 240 million, with a significant increase in H2 revenue driven by improved penetration in pharmacies and hospitals [4][18]. - The company completed its U.S. IPO in 2025, raising RMB 967 million, which alleviated cash needs [3][20]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are RMB 5.7 billion, RMB 29.9 billion, and RMB 28.0 billion, respectively. Corresponding net profits are projected at RMB -8.4 billion, RMB 12.5 billion, and RMB 9.1 billion [8][21]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain high, with estimates of 90.1% in FY25 and 98.1% in FY26 [8][14]. - The company’s cash and deposit balance was RMB 1.26 billion at the end of 2024, reflecting a 15.3% increase year-on-year [3][17]. R&D Progress - Ongoing Phase III trials include POLARIS-2 for pretreated CML-CP and POLARIS-3 for SDH-GIST, with plans to submit a Phase III application to the U.S. FDA for POLARIS-1 [5][23]. - The NDA for APG-2575 for R/R CLL/SLL has been accepted by the CDE, with multiple Phase III trials ongoing for various indications [5][23]. Valuation - The target price for Ascentage Pharma is set at HKD 53.1 per share, based on a risk-adjusted discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [8][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][16]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 7.47 billion for 2024, a decrease of 6.8% year-on-year, with pharmaceutical sales revenue at RMB 8.62 billion, down 9.0% [12][3]. - The impact of volume-based procurement (VBP) on existing products has largely been digested, with significant sales declines in certain product lines, while innovative products are showing growth [13][4]. - The company has made substantial progress in its innovative drug pipeline, with five products already commercialized and additional assets submitted for NDA approval [14][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was RMB 7.47 billion, down 6.8%, with a gross margin of 72.6%, a decline of 3.6 percentage points due to price cuts from VBP [12][3]. - R&D expenditure increased by 8.9% to RMB 890 million, accounting for 11.9% of total revenue, while selling expenses rose by 6.0% to RMB 2.66 billion [12][3]. - The annual profit was RMB 1.61 billion, down 32.3%, with adjusted net profit at RMB 1.71 billion, down 36.7% year-on-year [12][3]. Sales Breakdown - Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular product line sales were RMB 4.09 billion, down 18.8%, while dermatology and ophthalmology segments showed strong growth [13][4]. - Revenue from three VBP products was RMB 2.69 billion, down 28.8%, indicating that the short-term impact of centralized procurement has largely played out [13][4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to RMB 8.37 billion and RMB 9.44 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.5% and 13.3% [15][8]. - The target price is maintained at HKD 9.96 per share, corresponding to a 14x PE for 2025 [16][8].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 6 Apr 2025 安能物流（开曼） ANE (Cayman) (9956 HK) 量利高增，货重结构与效率持续优化 High Growth in Volume and Profit, with Optimization of Cargo Structure and Efficiency 骆雅丽 Yali Luo 虞楠 Nan Yu yl.luo@htisec.com nan.yu@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 安能物流发布 2024 年年报：2024 年，公司实现营业收入 115.76 亿元（人民币，下同），同比+16.7%，实现归母净 利润 7.50 亿元，同比+91.1%，实现经调整净利润 8.37 亿元，同比+64.2%。业绩符合预期。 点评 收入端：货重结构持续优化，增值服务需求增加。2024 年，公司货运总量增加至 14.1 百万吨，同比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, highlighting potential investment opportunities in companies like Howmet Aerospace, Loar Holdings, and Raytheon Technologies [6][7]. Core Insights - The AI data center sector is experiencing significant investment, with major companies like Microsoft and Meta planning to invest over $345 billion in AI infrastructure by 2025, indicating a potential bubble in the market [2][23]. - The aerospace industry is showing signs of recovery, with Airbus delivering approximately 70 aircraft in March, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase [29]. - The defense sector is witnessing substantial contracts, such as Lockheed Martin receiving a $4.94 billion contract for precision strike missiles, indicating strong government spending in defense [35]. Summary by Sections Global Market Review - The U.S. stock market has shown a cautious sentiment, with the S&P 500 index declining over 1% recently, reflecting a risk-off attitude among investors [13]. Infrastructure - The AI data center sector is facing risks of overheating, with significant investments planned by major tech companies [23]. - The PJM Interconnection has released a reliability resource plan to ensure new power plants can connect to the grid efficiently [26]. - Poland is advised to delay the closure of coal plants to avoid a power shortage by 2030 [27]. Industrial Equipment - The price index for electric motors and generators in the U.S. has shown a year-on-year increase of 26% [20]. - China's transformer exports in early 2025 saw a significant increase of 48% year-on-year, indicating strong demand [57]. Energy - U.S. electricity prices have decreased by 35.5% recently, while the market for natural gas is showing mixed signals [5]. - The average spot price for uranium in the global market has decreased by 7.9% month-on-month [4]. Aerospace - The price index for aircraft engines and components has remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [31]. - The aerospace sector is actively pursuing sustainable development, facing challenges in achieving net-zero emissions [29]. Defense - The U.S. government defense spending price index has shown a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [36]. - The defense industry is experiencing a surge in contract awards, particularly in precision strike and unmanned systems [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for DPC Dash [2][6][13] Core Views - DPC Dash reported a revenue of RMB 4.31 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% [3][12] - The company achieved a same-store sales growth (SSSG) of 2.5%, marking 30 consecutive quarters of positive growth [4][12] - The gross profit margin (GPM) stood at 72.9%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating profit margin (OPM) was 14.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points [5][12] - Adjusted net profit reached RMB 131 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.0%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [5][12] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 5.44 billion, RMB 7.03 billion, and RMB 8.78 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 29%, and 25% [6][11] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 188 million, RMB 340 million, and RMB 492 million, with growth rates of 44%, 80%, and 45% respectively [6][11] - The company plans to open 300 new stores in 2025, following a net addition of 240 stores in 2024, bringing the total to 1,008 stores [4][12] Valuation and Target Price - The target price is set at HKD 125.9, reflecting a valuation of 2.5-3 times the price-to-sales (PS) ratio for 2025 [2][6][13] - The current market capitalization is approximately HKD 14.95 billion (USD 1.92 billion) [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for China BlueChemical Core Views - The recurring net profit for 2024 decreased by 28.33% year-on-year, with total sales revenue of 11.946 billion yuan, down 8.40% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.071 billion yuan, down 55.02% year-on-year [2][3] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to fluctuations in the urea market, leading to a significant drop in sales prices [2][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of approximately 557 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 51.98% and a dividend yield of 6.09% [2][3] Summary by Product - Urea sales revenue was 3.711 billion yuan, down 20.70% year-on-year, due to a decrease in sales price by 382.9 yuan per ton and a reduction in sales volume by 103,832 tons, with a gross profit margin of 19% [4] - Phosphate and compound fertilizers sales revenue was 2.687 billion yuan, down 0.70% year-on-year, with an increase in sales price by 67.1 yuan per ton but a decrease in sales volume by 22,605.8 tons, maintaining the same gross profit margin as the previous year [4] - Methanol sales revenue was 3.091 billion yuan, up 1.90% year-on-year, driven by an increase in sales price by 66.2 yuan per ton, despite a decrease in sales volume by 17,611.3 tons, with a gross profit margin of 27% [4] - Acrylonitrile series products sales revenue was 2.011 billion yuan, up 54.30% year-on-year, due to an increase in sales price by 738.1 yuan per ton and an increase in sales volume by 66,191.8 tons, with the gross profit margin turning positive [4] Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its phosphate rock resources through its subsidiary Hubei Dayukou Chemical Co., Ltd., which is constructing a mining project with an annual capacity of 1.6 million tons, expected to commence production in 2026 [5] - The company holds a 33.99% stake in Guizhou Jinlin Chemical Co., Ltd., which is expected to generate significant annual operating income and profit once its phosphate mine project is fully operational [5] - The company signed a memorandum of understanding with BASF to establish a Joint Laboratory for Advanced Green C1 Chemical Technology, focusing on sustainable and low-carbon solutions [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yum China Holdings [5][11]. Core Insights - Yum China Holdings reported a revenue of 11.30 billion USD for 2024, a 3% year-over-year increase, with an adjusted net profit of 911 million USD, up 8% year-over-year [2][11]. - In Q4 2024, revenue reached 2.60 billion USD, reflecting a 4% year-over-year growth, and adjusted net profit was 115 million USD, up 11% year-over-year [2][11]. - The company plans to add approximately 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with capital expenditures estimated between 700 to 800 million USD [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, KFC and Pizza Hut system sales grew by 5% and 3% respectively, with same-store sales declining by 1% and 2% [2][11]. - KFC's order volume increased by 3%, while average transaction value decreased by 4%; Pizza Hut's order volume rose by 9%, with a 10% drop in average transaction value [2][11]. - The total number of restaurants reached 16,395 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,751 restaurants, representing a 12% annual growth [3][11]. Digital and Delivery Growth - By the end of Q4 2024, KFC and Pizza Hut had over 525 million members, contributing to 65% of sales [4][11]. - Digital orders accounted for 90% of restaurant income, totaling 9.60 billion USD for the year, while delivery sales grew by 14% year-over-year, making up 39% of restaurant income [4][11]. Cost Control and Efficiency - The report highlights improved cost control measures, with raw materials accounting for 31.9% of income (down 0.5 percentage points), staff costs at 28.2% (down 0.8 percentage points), and rent and other expenses at 27.6% (down 0.3 percentage points) [4][11]. - The restaurant profit margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 12.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-over-year [3][11]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 950 million USD, 1.01 billion USD, and 1.07 billion USD, with growth rates of 4.3%, 5.9%, and 6.6% respectively [5][11]. - The target price is set at 431.8 HKD per share based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for WuXi XDC Cayman, with a target price of HK$49.10, representing a potential upside of 47% from the current price of HK$41.90 [1][19]. Core Insights - WuXi XDC achieved robust growth in 2024, with revenue reaching RMB4.052 billion, a year-on-year increase of 90.8%. The gross margin improved to 30.6%, up 4.3 percentage points, and net profit attributable to shareholders surged 277.2% to RMB1.070 billion [4][12]. - The company secured 53 new integrated projects and 23 iCMC projects in 2024, supporting clients in submitting 30 IND applications and delivering over 300 GMP production batches [5][13]. - North America emerged as the fastest-growing region, with revenue from North American clients reaching RMB2.03 billion, a 138.3% increase year-on-year, accounting for 50.1% of total revenue [15]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for WuXi XDC from 2025 to 2027 are RMB5.587 billion, RMB7.387 billion, and RMB9.462 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.9%, 32.2%, and 28.1% respectively [7][18]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB1.342 billion, RMB1.818 billion, and RMB2.403 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 25%, 35%, and 32% respectively [10][18]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB1.550 billion, RMB2.010 billion, and RMB2.580 billion, with growth rates of 32%, 30%, and 28% [10][18]. Market Position and Strategy - By the end of 2024, WuXi XDC had a total backlog of RMB991 million, reflecting a 71% year-on-year growth, with new contract signings maintaining pace with this growth [16]. - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures, with 2025 CAPEX projected to exceed RMB1.4 billion, focusing on expanding its global manufacturing footprint and technical capabilities [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 45.50 per share, corresponding to HKD 48.92 per share at a 0.93 exchange rate [7][10]. Core Insights - The company reported stable revenue of RMB 42.90 billion for 2024, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.12 billion, reflecting a 0.36% increase [3][10]. - Despite challenges, the company maintained its leading market share in packaged water, although revenue from this segment declined by 21.3% to RMB 15.95 billion due to external factors [3][10]. - The company is expected to recover in 2025 as it clarifies its position to the public and continues its strategic initiatives [3][10]. Financial Data and Forecasts - Total revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025: Revenue of RMB 50.69 billion, net profit of RMB 14.57 billion, EPS of RMB 1.30 - 2026: Revenue of RMB 58.91 billion, net profit of RMB 16.95 billion, EPS of RMB 1.51 - 2027: Revenue of RMB 67.98 billion, net profit of RMB 19.83 billion, EPS of RMB 1.76 [2][10]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) decreased by 1.46 percentage points, leading to a 1.93% decline in gross profit [3][10]. Business Segment Performance - The packaged water segment remains under pressure but retains the highest market share in China, supported by strategic investments in water source facilities [3][10]. - The tea beverage segment showed strong growth, achieving revenue of RMB 16.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.3% [4][10]. - Functional beverages and juice products also demonstrated resilience, with revenues of RMB 4.93 billion and RMB 4.08 billion, respectively, indicating ongoing product innovation and market demand [5][6][10].