研究报告 Research Report 3 Jan 2025 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国消费行业 2025 年 1 月投资策略报告：基本面改善前先关注估值修复 Valuation precedes improvement in fundamentals [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | | Neutral | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 今世缘 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 迎驾贡酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 重庆啤酒 | | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/机械工业 证券研究报告 行业月报 [Table_InvestInfo] 轨交设备：2024 年全国铁路完成固定资产投 资同比+11.3%；"十四五"期间城轨年均新投 运线路长度有望超一千公里 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 铁路投资：2024 年全国铁路完成固定资产投资 8506 亿元，同比增长 11.3%；2025 年力争完成基建投资 5900 亿元，投产新线 2600 公里。 1）2024 年数据：根据新华网援引国铁集团数据，2024 年，全国铁路完成固定 资产投资 8506 亿元，同比增长 11.3%；投产新线 3113 公里，其中高铁 2457 公 里，铁路建设成效显著。截至 2024 年底，全国铁路营业里程达到 16.2 万公里， 其中高铁 4.8 万公里，我国高铁运营里程再创新纪录。 2）2025 年规划：根据中国铁路微信公众号，国铁集团工作会议在北京召开，会 议提出，2025 年铁路工作的主要目标是：铁路安全保持持续稳定；国家铁路完 成旅客发送量 42.8 亿人、同比增长 4.9%，完成货物发送量 40.3 亿吨、同比增长 1.1%；全面完 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to RoboSense, indicating an expected relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [20]. Core Insights - RoboSense held the "Hello Robot" 2025 AI Robotics Global Launch Event on January 3, 2025, unveiling three new digital LiDAR models (EM4, E1R, and AIRY) and several incremental robotic components [1][8]. - The new digital LiDAR products significantly enhance automotive and robotic sensing capabilities, showcasing RoboSense's technological expertise and development capabilities [2][9]. - The strategic expansion from automotive LiDAR to robotics opens diversified opportunities, enhancing product adaptability and market coverage while supporting the future development of intelligent robots and unmanned systems [4][11]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - RoboSense launched three new digital LiDAR models and multiple robotic components at the 2025 AI Robotics Global Launch Event [1][8]. Digital LiDAR Products - EM4: The world's first 1,000-line ultra-long-range LiDAR with a 600-meter detection range and 1080-line resolution [2][9]. - E1R: The world's first solid-state digital LiDAR, compact with a 130°×90° field of view, suitable for various mobile robot applications [2][9]. - AIRY: A 192-line compact digital LiDAR designed for robotics, offering a 360°×90° field of view [2][9]. Incremental Robotic Components - Active Camera: A fusion sensing device that enhances robotic vision precision and versatility [3][10]. - Papert 2.0: A second-generation dexterous hand with 20 degrees of freedom and a maximum load capacity of 5 kilograms [3][10]. - DC-G1 Domain Controller: A highly integrated and energy-efficient controller supporting various real-time sensing models [3][10]. - LA-8000 Joint Motor: A high-power-density motor suitable for humanoid robot leg joints [3][10]. - FS-3D Force Tactile Sensor: Designed for end-motion control in legged robots [3][10]. Strategic Expansion - RoboSense's expansion into the robotics domain reflects a decade of expertise in automotive LiDAR, broadening its technological layout and application boundaries [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Kingsoft Software (3888) with a target price of HKD 46.85 per share, based on a 2025 PE of 35x [4][18] Core Views - Kingsoft Software is a leading software and internet service company in China, focusing on interactive entertainment and office software, with cloud services and AI as new directions [14] - The company's revenue has grown steadily from RMB 4.37 billion in 2019 to RMB 8.53 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 18.20% [15] - The gaming business is strong, with Sword 3 showing resilience and new games like Limit Breaker and Sword Zero expected to contribute to future growth [16] - WPS AI, launched overseas in June 2024, is expected to enhance smart office platforms for 200 million users, with R&D efficiency improved by over 30% and costs reduced by over 35% [17] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 10.19 billion in 2024 to RMB 14.83 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.8% [4][18] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 0.87 billion in 2024 to RMB 2.33 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 41.9% [4][18] - EPS is projected to rise from RMB 0.65 in 2024 to RMB 1.75 in 2026 [4][18] - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 82.44% to 83.31% from 2024 to 2026 [18] Business Segments - Office software and services revenue is expected to grow from RMB 5.11 billion in 2024 to RMB 7.55 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 22.93% [18] - Gaming revenue is forecasted to increase from RMB 5.05 billion in 2024 to RMB 7.23 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.80% [18] Strategic Initiatives - Kingsoft Office continues to focus on AI and collaboration, offering an AI office experience and advancing new productivity in the office sector [14] - The company is expanding its gaming portfolio with new titles like Limit Breaker and Sword Zero, which are expected to drive future growth [16] - Collaboration with Amazon Cloud has enhanced WPS AI's capabilities, improving R&D efficiency and reducing costs [17]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 22.17 based on a 25x PE for 2024 and a 20x PE for 2025 [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in power cost software and smart instruments, focusing on smart environmental protection and grid construction, enhancing domestic innovation capabilities [14]. - The company has shown strong profit growth in the first three quarters of 2023, with a net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 39.41% year-on-year [11]. - The report highlights the company's commitment to digital, intelligent, and green development, promoting domestic smart instruments and expanding into energy storage and new core businesses [12][13]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue for 2022 was RMB 973 million, with projections of RMB 1,098 million for 2023, RMB 1,223 million for 2024, RMB 1,419 million for 2025, and RMB 1,638 million for 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 215 million in 2022 to RMB 246 million in 2023, RMB 336 million in 2024, RMB 421 million in 2025, and RMB 508 million in 2026, indicating a strong upward trend [2][14]. - The report forecasts a gross profit margin of 60.7% for 2023, slightly declining to 59.5% in 2024, and then stabilizing around 60% in the following years [2][9]. Business Segmentation - Software sales are projected to generate revenue of RMB 541.91 million in 2023, with a growth rate of 7.11%, and expected to reach RMB 720.14 million by 2026 [5]. - The power monitoring segment is anticipated to grow significantly, with revenues expected to increase from RMB 126.69 million in 2023 to RMB 411.50 million by 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 24.78% in 2023 and 40% in 2026 [5]. - Environmental monitoring revenue is projected to grow steadily, with expected revenues of RMB 427.14 million in 2023 and RMB 503.89 million by 2026, maintaining a stable growth rate [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a high market share in the nuclear power software and instruments sector and is expanding its offerings in energy storage and portable chromatography [13]. - The company is committed to enhancing its product line and achieving domestic innovation in smart instruments, focusing on overcoming key technological challenges [6][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of 39.60 RMB based on a 22x PE for 2025 [12]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic petrochemical technology provider, focusing on three main sectors: chemical technology services, equipment, and catalysts. It has established a strong position in low energy and material consumption, ensuring process integrity and efficiency [11][12]. - Revenue and net profit have shown steady growth, with projected revenues increasing from 394 million RMB in 2023 to 1,051 million RMB in 2026, representing a CAGR of approximately 40.6% [8][12]. - The company is expanding its catalyst production capacity with a new project aimed at producing 12,000 tons per year, which is expected to generate a profit of 280 million RMB in its first year of operation [12]. Financial Data and Forecasts - The company's financial projections indicate a significant increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years. For instance, net profit is expected to rise from 114 million RMB in 2024 to 286 million RMB in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 102.7% [8][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.51 RMB in 2024, 1.80 RMB in 2025, and 3.64 RMB in 2026, indicating a strong upward trend [12]. - The gross margin is expected to fluctuate, with a forecast of 54.5% in 2023, dropping to 33.6% in 2025, and recovering to 42.8% by 2026 [8][12]. Business Segments - The company operates in three main business segments: chemical technology services, equipment, and catalysts. The catalyst segment is anticipated to see rapid growth due to the new production project [11][12]. - The catalyst sales are projected to reach 1,500 tons in 2025 and 2,500 tons in 2026, contributing significantly to the company's revenue growth [2][12]. Collaborations and Market Position - The company has established strong partnerships with major firms such as PetroChina and Honeywell, enhancing its market position and technological capabilities [11][12]. - The company is recognized for its advanced technology and has successfully served both state-owned and private petrochemical enterprises [11].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息设备/半导体产品与半导体设备 证券研究报告 甬矽电子（688362）公司研究报告 公司研究·甬矽电子（688362）2 表 1 移远通信可比上市公司估值比较 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 收盘价 | 总市值 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | （亿元） | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | | 002156 | 通富微电 | 27.46 | 416.73 | 0.11 | 0.57 | 0.81 | 250 | 48 | 34 | | 002185 | 华天科技 | 10.81 | 346.4 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 0.30 | 154 | 60 | 36 | | 600584 | 长电科技 | 38.23 | 684.09 | 0.82 | 1.05 | 1.56 | 47 | 36 | 25 | | 688403 | 汇成股份 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 策略研究 证券研究报告 策略专题报告 [Table_Title] 影响港股 25 年走势的五大变量 ——25 年策略展望系列 5 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心结论：①展望 25 年，港股流动性宽松有望延续，宏观层面美联储降息 趋势不改，微观层面除港股通带来增量、外资也望阶段性回流。②港股基本 面复苏的大方向较为确定，复苏进程关键看增量政策落地速度，同时特朗普 对华政策也可能对基本面产生扰动。③港股情绪面或受特朗普出台政策节奏 的影响，香港制度改革则有助于在长期维度提振投资者信心。 24 年港股震荡上行但仍处低位。回首 24 年，港股整体震荡上行，具体来看 可以分为三个阶段：①1/2-1/31 期间延续下跌后筑底，②2/1-9/11 期间低位反 弹后回调，③9/12-12/31 期间急涨后高位震荡。港股于 10/8 起高位震荡，指 数出现回调，结合估值、交易、风偏等指标看，我们认为，港股目前仍处在 高性价比区间。从估值看，对比海外港股估值偏低。从情绪看，当前港股成 交缩量、卖空比例偏高。从风偏看，港股风险溢价较高、预期 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 2 Jan 2025 美国能源 US Energy 国际 AI 工业+能源周报 (12/30-12/05): AI 数据中心领跑建设投资，美国 AI 工业与能 源市场价格稳步增长 Global AI Industrials + Energy Updates: AI Data Centers Lead Construction Investment, and Prices in the U.S. AI Industry and Energy Markets Grow Steadily 杨斌 Bin Yang bin.yang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis 4）能源：美国：美国主要地区本周电力平均现货价格为$35.41/MWh，较上周下降 43.16%；2024 年 10 月，美国新 增装机容量 4850MW，主要为太阳能发电和储能，特别是在德州和加利福尼亚州的 CAISO 电力市场。同时，退役装 机容量 143MW，主要是无储能的太阳能热发电和天然气联合循环发电，集中在加利福尼亚州 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 26.17 per share based on a 35x PE valuation for 2025 [5][23]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a global leader in the rare earth industry, with stable growth in production and sales, producing 0.1749 million tons of smelting and separation products in 2023, accounting for 72% of the national quota [2][19]. - The company benefits from unique resource advantages, holding exclusive mining rights to the Baiyun Obo mine, which contains over 80% of China's rare earth reserves, ensuring stable raw material supply [3][20]. - The company has strengthened its full industry chain layout, achieving record production levels in both rare earth raw materials and functional materials [4][21]. - A new cycle for rare earths is anticipated, with supply tightening and prices expected to rebound, driven by demand from industries such as new energy vehicles and wind power [4][22]. - Profit forecasts indicate a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, projected at RMB 1.02 billion, 2.70 billion, and 3.94 billion for 2024-2026 [5][23]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest integrated rare earth enterprise globally, focusing on the development and utilization of the Baiyun Obo rare earth mine, with a comprehensive industrial system covering mining, smelting, separation, and deep processing [13][19]. Production and Sales Performance - In 2023, the company produced 0.1749 million tons of smelting and separation products, with significant year-on-year increases in production and sales across key product categories in 2024 [2][19]. Resource and Quota Management - The company secured approximately 70% and 67% of the total quotas for mining and smelting/separation products in 2024, reinforcing its resource advantage and supply capabilities [3][20]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights a tightening supply in the rare earth market starting in the second half of 2024, with expectations for price increases driven by improving supply-demand dynamics [4][22]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to experience a recovery in profitability, with net profit forecasts showing substantial growth from 2024 to 2026 [5][23].