Group 1: Economic Indicators - CPI is expected to show a mild recovery in 2024, with an annual year-on-year central tendency slightly exceeding 0.2%[2] - PPI is anticipated to slowly bottom out, remaining in negative territory, with an annual central tendency around -2.2%[2] - In December, the PPI year-on-year decline is expected to narrow slightly to -2.3%[4] Group 2: Price Trends - December's average wholesale price of pork is 22.9 CNY/kg, down 4.2% from November, indicating a weak short-term price trend[3] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to rise month-on-month in December, providing some support to the oil and gas chemical industry chain prices[4] - The service sector's PMI and sales price components increased by 1.9 and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to November, indicating a seasonal rebound in service prices[3] Group 3: Market Risks - There is uncertainty regarding the real estate market trends, which could impact overall economic stability[5] - The effectiveness of macro policies may fall short of expectations, posing additional risks to economic recovery[5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the computer sector, indicating that it is entering a new phase of growth and recovery, particularly driven by technological independence and AI applications [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the urgency of achieving technological independence in China, especially in light of recent U.S. export restrictions on semiconductor companies [4]. - It predicts that 2025 will be a pivotal year for AI applications, marking a significant increase in their practical implementation across various industries [5]. - The report highlights the expected recovery in the downstream market due to supportive monetary and fiscal policies, which are anticipated to enhance industry prosperity [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Overview of the Computer Sector - The computer sector has experienced four major bull markets over the past decade, with the current phase identified as the beginning of the fourth major market [9]. 2. Current Position of the Computer Sector - As of late 2024, the SW Computer Index has seen a decline of 32.35% from January to September, followed by a rebound of 70.16% from September to December, but overall growth remains modest at 11.88% for the year [6]. - Institutional holdings in the computer sector are at a historical low of 2.4% as of Q3 2024, indicating potential for growth [19]. 3. Promising Sub-sectors for 2025 - The report identifies several key areas for investment in 2025, including: - General IT innovation (信创) - AI applications - Financial IT - Vehicle-road cloud integration - Industrial software - Data elements and cyclical information technology - Low-altitude economy [6][29][34]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the computer sector is poised for opportunities, particularly in the context of AI and technological independence, with a focus on sectors that are expected to benefit from government policies and market recovery [6][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the electricity sector, particularly thermal power, with a recommendation to continue watching power plants due to expected profitability increases [3][4][8]. Core Insights - Electricity prices for 2025 are mostly established, with inland regions performing better than coastal areas. The report anticipates a turnaround in spot electricity prices in 2025, driven by an expanding electricity-coal price spread and secure dividend yields for power plants [4][5]. - The report highlights that coal prices have rebounded due to production cuts and entering long-term contract ranges, although high inventory levels indicate oversupply [5]. - In Zhejiang, the user-end electricity price reduction is likely complete, with plans for further reductions in the future [6]. - The report notes a significant increase in negative electricity prices in Europe, reflecting a growing demand for marketization in the electricity sector [7]. - Profitability in the power sector is expected to rise, with thermal power's PE ratio below 10 and increasing dividends, making it an attractive investment opportunity [8]. Summary by Sections Electricity Pricing and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that long-term electricity prices in Guangdong and Jiangsu have been established, removing negative factors for the sector. It expects a favorable shift in spot electricity prices in 2025 [3][4]. - The report discusses the anticipated reduction in coal contracts for power plants this year, with potential changes in long-term coal prices, but maintains a favorable outlook for power plants in 2025 [5]. Regional Insights - In Zhejiang, industrial and commercial users completed transactions of approximately 350 billion kWh in 2025, with a planned price reduction of over 0.8 cents/kWh from 2024 [6]. - The report highlights the surge in negative electricity prices in Europe, with Germany experiencing 468 hours of negative prices, up 60% year-over-year, and France seeing 356 hours, up 100% year-over-year [7]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on various segments within the power sector, including thermal power flexibility, thermal power transition, water and thermal power integration, coal power integration, and new energy sources [8].

[Table_MainInfo] 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观周报 房地产：销售偏稳，投资偏弱 ——国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 1 期） [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年首周经济运行整体平稳，局部波动受假期错位等因素影响，后续仍 需政策推动。消费端汽车消费稳健，非耐用品消费短期波动，服务消费呈现 分化。投资领域基建有望加速，地产销售受跨年影响回落，土地市场再度转 向平淡。进出口方面海外数据向好，出口有望保持强势。生产环节钢铁偏弱， 煤电需求有所支撑。库存方面钢材补库缓慢，物价领域食品价格下降，建材 价格回落。资金利率下行，美元指数上升。 风险提示：外需超预期回落，稳增长政策不及预期。 | 图 1 | 海通宏观生产同步指标与工业增加值同比走势（%） | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 2 | 海通宏观出口同步指标与出口金额同比走势（%） | 3 | | 图 3 | 海通宏观消费同步指标与消费同比走势（%） | 3 | | 图 4 | 当周日均销量:乘用车:厂家零售（万辆，4WMA） 4 | | | 图 5 | 中国轻纺 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观周报 2025 年 1 月 5 日 美元指数继续走高 ——海外经济政策跟踪 全球大类资产表现。上周（2024.12.27-2025.1.3），全球大类资产价格中， 主要经济体股市下跌。其中，恒生指数下跌 1.6%，标普 500 下跌 0.5%；IPE 布油期货上涨 3.6%，标普-高盛商品指数上涨 2.0%，伦敦金现上涨 0.7%；10 年期美债收益率较前一周回落 2BP 至 4.60%，国内 10Y 国债期货价格上升 0.53%；美元指数较前一周上涨 0.8%，报收 108.9，日元升值，美元兑日元 收 157.3，人民币贬值，美元兑人民币汇率收 7.3。 经济：美国方面：12 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 继续回升；12 月 28 日当周初次申 请失业金人数有所回落；10 月 20 大中城市房价同比继续回落。 通胀预期相对稳定。截至 1 月 3 日，美国 5 年期通胀预期为 2.40%，较前一 周回升 2BP，10 年期通胀预期较上周持平，为 2.34%。市场仍预期美联储年 内降息 25BP。截至 1 月 3 日，市场预期 2025 年美联储 5 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/金融/银行 证券研究报告 行业周报 周报：1 月微盘股回调，资金寻求避险 投资要点：1 月微盘股回调，资金涌入银行寻求避险。银行股凭借低 估值和高股息的优势吸引力持续上升。建议重点关注杭州银行、江苏 银行、齐鲁银行、苏州银行、招商银行和沪农商行。 近期表现回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] [Table_Summary 近期行业观点：结合近期落地的政策，我们认为整体利好银行板块，息差有望 保持稳定，营收增速有望逐步企稳，利润增速有望维持现有水平，不良率保持 低位，拨备覆盖率保持高位，重点关注杭州银行（资产质量向好，低估值高安 全边际）、江苏银行（利润增速维持高位，资产质量优异）、齐鲁银行（资产质 量向好，低估值高安全边际）、苏州银行（资产质量向好，规模较快增长）、招 商银行（零售业务持续向好，资产质量优异）和沪农商行（地理位置优越，资 产质量优异）。 1 月微盘股回调，资金涌入银行板块寻求避险。2025 年 1 月 3 日，微盘股指数 日内跌超 4%。在 A 股市场中，1 月微盘股通常呈现出欠佳态势，部分场内资金 倾 ...

Market Performance - In 2024, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 39,894 points, reflecting a 19% increase for the year[3] - The upward trend in the Japanese stock market was driven by a strong U.S. economy, yen depreciation, and corporate earnings growth[3] Economic Outlook - Japan's real GDP growth is projected to be 1% in 2025, slightly above potential GDP growth[4] - Core inflation in Japan is expected to remain above 2% throughout the year, with core CPI rising to 2.4% by November 2024[4] Corporate Performance - Corporate earnings are anticipated to reach new highs in FY2024, leading to improved capital expenditures in 2025[4] - The Japanese government plans to invest 10 trillion yen in AI and semiconductor industries from 2025 to 2030[4] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate hikes, with a potential increase of 0.25% twice in 2025[6] - The timing and frequency of BOJ rate hikes will be closely monitored, especially in light of U.S. inflation expectations[6] Currency and Exchange Rates - The USD/JPY exchange rate is forecasted to fluctuate between 150-170 yen in 2025 due to ongoing U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials[7] - Despite a potential tightening of Japanese monetary policy, the yen may lack significant upward momentum against a strong dollar[7] Sector Opportunities - The AI and semiconductor sectors are expected to drive growth across various industries, including retail, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing[10] - Japanese companies are increasingly focusing on enhancing shareholder returns through dividends and stock buybacks, with an average dividend payout ratio below 40%[11]

[Table_MainInfo] 策略研究 证券研究报告 策略周报 2025 年 01 月 04 日 岁末年初风格有何特征？ [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心结论：①历史上岁末年初大盘价值多占优，但与全年风格方向相关不大， 盈利相对趋势才是风格决定因素。②当前政策积极但基本面修复尚需确认， 市场短期处震荡休整，红利资产推动价值风格占优。③中期稳增长政策推动 基本面回暖，市场趋势望向上，基本面更优的科技和中高端制造或推动成长 回归。 历史上岁末年初大盘价值风格多占优。历史上岁末年初大盘价值风格多占优， 背后源自政策和资金层面的催化。岁末年初期间大盘价值占优一方面是源于 政策的催化。年末 A 股市场处在业绩真空期，同时也是重大会议召开和宏观 政策出台的窗口期，政策层面的催化往往推动大盘价值风格占优。另一方面， 资金面可能也是影响岁末年初风格的因素。A 股市场上公募基金等机构投资 者通常以年度作为考核周期，因此每年岁末年初的时候机构投资者博弈调仓 行为大多增加，而大盘价值板块市值大、流动性好，便于机构短时间收集筹 码，往往受到机构的青睐。 年初风格并非定全年方 ...

Equity – Asia Research 2 一级市场：（1） 12月北交所IPO企业3家，共募集资金5.1亿元，相较11月 保持稳定；（2）12月北交所IPO审核已受理31家，已问询9家，上市委会 议通过3家，提交注册1家，注册2家，中止10家，终止2家；（3）12月新 三板日均成交额与成交量较11月小幅上升。 二级市场：（1） 12月宽基指数多数下跌，其中北证50跌幅较大；（2） 12月北证中美容护理、国防军工行业跌幅较小，惠丰钻石、威博液压等个 股涨幅靠前；（3）12月北证交易情绪高位回落，市盈率下降；（4）12月 北证主题基金规模达133亿元，产品整体表现回调。 要闻跟踪：（1） 12月北交所发布三项债券业务指南、专项品种公司债券 指引，并建立上市公司息披露评价体系；（2）12月多家公司发布回购、 股东增持、投资者关系活动记录等公告。 风险提示：北交所流动性不足风险。 目录 1. 一级市场：12月北交所IPO数量保持稳定 Presentation：北交所首例回购增持专项贷款落地——北交所研究月 报-20250104 First Repurchase and Increase Holding Spe ...

研究报告 Research Report 3 Jan 2025 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国消费行业 2025 年 1 月投资策略报告：基本面改善前先关注估值修复 Valuation precedes improvement in fundamentals [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | | Neutral | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 今世缘 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 迎驾贡酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 重庆啤酒 | | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 ...