Economic Growth and GDP Performance - Indonesia's GDP growth in 3Q24 was 4.95%, below the 5% target and the lowest since 3Q23 [116] - Singapore's GDP grew by 4.1% in 3Q24, driven by a recovery in the manufacturing sector, particularly electronics and semiconductors [126] - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.4% in 3Q24, the highest in two years, supported by strong consumption, manufacturing, and exports [158] - Thailand's GDP grew by 2.96% in 3Q24, with wholesale and retail trade growing by 3.50% and accommodation and food services by 8.40% [151] Inflation and Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Indonesia's CPI in November 2024 increased by 1.55% YoY, driven by rising food, beverage, and tobacco prices [108] - Singapore's CPI in November 2024 rose by 1.60% YoY, below market expectations, with food inflation at 2.4% and services inflation at 2.2% [15] - Thailand's CPI in November 2024 increased by 0.95% YoY, below the expected 1.12%, with core inflation rising to 0.80% [123] - Vietnam's CPI in November 2024 grew by 2.77% YoY, with food and beverage prices contributing to the increase [134] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Indonesia's consumer confidence index reached 125.90 in November 2024, the highest since April, indicating strong consumer optimism [120] - Thailand's consumer confidence index rose to 52.9 in October 2024, showing a clear upward trend [153] - Singapore's food and beverage sales in October 2024 reached SGD 997 million, a 3.9% YoY increase, driven by growth in in-flight and event catering [17] Sector Performance and Valuation - Vietnam's essential consumer sector valuation improved, reaching the 63rd percentile of its historical range as of November 2024 [60] - Malaysia's daily and discretionary consumer sectors had PE historical percentiles of 97% and 96%, respectively, indicating high valuations [31] - Indonesia's essential consumer sector PE historical percentile stood at 26%, while Thailand's was at 19% for essential and 36% for discretionary sectors [60] Market Performance and Stock Movements - In November 2024, Indonesia's essential and discretionary consumer sectors outperformed the broader market, with returns of -3.4% and +3.5%, respectively [100] - Malaysia's daily and discretionary consumer sectors outperformed the market, with returns of +1.5% and -3.9%, respectively [100] - Singapore's daily consumer sector outperformed the market with a +2.4% return, while the discretionary sector underperformed with a -3.7% return [100] Key Companies and Stock Performance - Top performers in Southeast Asia included Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (+11.2%), DFI Retail Group (+9.2%), and Golden Agri-Resources (+5.5%) [105] - Underperformers included Unilever Indonesia (-11.1%), Home Product Center (-10.7%), and Minor International (-8.5%) [105]

加拿大投资者的通知事项：在任何情况下该等材料均不得被解释为在任何加拿大的司法管辖区内出售证券的要约或认购证券的要约邀请。本材料中所述 证券在加拿大的任何要约或出售行为均只能在豁免向有关加拿大证券监管机构提交招股说明书的前提下由Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc. （"HTI USA"）予以实施，该公司是一家根据National Instrument 31-103 Registration Requirements, Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations（"NI 31-103"）的 规定得到「国际交易商豁免」（"International Dealer Exemption" ）的交易商，位于艾伯塔省、不列颠哥伦比亚省、安大略省和魁北克省。在加拿大，该 等材料在任何情况下均不得被解释为任何证券的招股说明书、发行备忘录、广告或公开发行。加拿大的任何证券委员会或类似的监管机构均未审查或以 任何方式批准该等材料、其中所载的信息或所述证券的优点，任何与此相反的声明即属违法。在收到该等材料时，每个加拿大的收件人均将被视为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the transportation sector, indicating that the total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark [11][13]. Core Insights - The transportation index fell by 2.3% from December 16 to December 20, 2024, while the SHCOMP index decreased by 0.7% during the same period [3][56]. - Subsector performance showed significant variation, with highways increasing by 1.0%, while air transport and public transport decreased by 4.8% and 6.7%, respectively [3][56]. - The SCFI index was reported at 2390.17 points, reflecting a 0.2% increase from the previous week, while the BDI decreased by 5.8% [4][61]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The overall market saw a decline, with the transportation sector underperforming the broader market [3][56]. - Specific subsectors such as express delivery and warehousing logistics experienced notable declines of 2.7% and 5.6%, respectively [3][56]. Shipping Data - The SCFI index increased slightly, while the BDI and BCTI showed declines, indicating mixed signals in shipping demand and pricing [4][61]. Investment Strategy - In express delivery, companies like S.F. Holding and Yunda Holding showed year-over-year declines in average selling price (ASP) but month-over-month increases, suggesting potential recovery [5][63]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in the aviation sector, particularly for airlines like Spring Airlines and Hainan Airlines, due to expected demand recovery [57][58]. - The highway sector is noted for its defensive attributes, making it an attractive investment in the current economic climate [58]. Sector Observations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring oil transportation prices and the overall shipping market dynamics, which are expected to influence profitability in the coming year [61][63].

Industry Overview - The Biden Administration announced a "Section 301" investigation into China's mature chips on December 23, 2024, focusing on chips generally defined as 28 nanometers and above [6][7] - The investigation targets mature chips that receive Chinese subsidies, including tax incentives and local subsidies, rather than AI chips or module and assembly companies [1][7] Market Trends - US imports of Chinese semiconductor chips dropped from nearly $100 billion in 2020-2022 to approximately $60 billion in 2024 [30] - The investigation may extend to restrictions on Chinese processes and stricter import determinations, making it increasingly difficult to circumvent US import regulations or obtain tariff preferences by operating in other regions [30][31] Investment Implications - The report suggests that the investigation could lead to further restrictions on Chinese semiconductor processes, potentially impacting the industry's growth and market dynamics [30][31] - The focus on mature chips and potential process restrictions may create challenges for companies relying on these technologies, while also opening opportunities for alternative suppliers and regions [1][7][30]

投资结论： 我们认为随着封装基板向大尺寸、高叠层方向发展，封装芯片存在的翘曲问题日渐突出。玻璃基板凭借其与硅芯片良好的CTE匹配度，能有效对抗封装过 程中的翘曲问题，玻璃基板是封装基板未来的技术发展趋势。受益于先进封装下大尺寸AI算力芯片更新迭代，玻璃基板产业链有望迎来加速成长。建议 关注：沃格光电、兴森科技。 一、传统IC载板与玻璃基板介绍 何为IC载板（封装基板） 4 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 资料来源：品化科技官网，《和美精艺第一轮审核问询函的回复》， HTI • ABF载板的制造通常选用SAP工艺。 SAP工艺是将内层基板做超粗化处理以增强介质和下层金属线路间的结合力，在基板2 面贴增层介质，通过真空压膜和镜面钢板整平获得均匀覆盖在基板表面的介质层，激光钻孔后对介质表面做除胶工艺处 理，清除钻孔产生的残渣并形成均匀的、纳米尺度的粗糙表面，在孔内及介质表面沉积疏松的化铜层，再经过图形发生 （包括贴膜、曝光、显影工艺）和图形转移（包括图形电镀、剥膜和闪蚀）等一系列工艺形成增层线路。 英特尔认为玻璃基板是载板未来发展趋势 玻璃基板：核心层由玻璃代替，增层部分仍可使用ABF 8 请务必阅读正文之 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group with a target price of RMB 37.25 based on a 25X PE for 2025 [11][36] Core Views - Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group, established in 1582, focuses on anorectal health medicine and has expanded into medical services and pharmaceutical commerce, leveraging a 440-year heritage with products like Mayinglong Musk Hemorrhoids Ointment, forming a '1+4+X' product structure [1][92] - The company strategically focuses on core areas and expands into health products, with significant growth in eye care and hygiene products, leading to a 33.27% YoY increase in health revenue in H1 2024 [2][93] - The company's core anorectal products maintain steady growth, with revenue from the pharmaceutical industry expected to grow at 18.1%, 15.5%, and 13.3% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins of 64.7%, 64.8%, and 64.9% respectively [4] - The medical services segment is expected to grow at 25.0%, 20.0%, and 18.0% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins of 15.2%, 15.4%, and 15.6% respectively [13] - The pharmaceutical commerce segment is projected to grow at 5.0%, 4.0%, and 3.0% from 2024 to 2026, maintaining a gross margin of 8.9% [78] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at RMB 3.61 billion, RMB 4.08 billion, and RMB 4.54 billion, with YoY growth of 15.1%, 12.9%, and 11.3% respectively [3] - Net profit for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is expected to be RMB 546 million, RMB 641 million, and RMB 738 million, with YoY growth of 23.3%, 17.3%, and 15.2% respectively [3][11] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted at RMB 1.27, RMB 1.49, and RMB 1.71 respectively [3][11] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable, with 42.2%, 42.5%, and 42.7% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - ROE is projected at 13.3%, 13.5%, and 13.4% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [3] Business Strategy and Market Position - The company has optimized its distribution channels, reducing the number of first-tier distributors and enhancing cooperation with channel distributors, which is expected to improve channel control and operational capabilities [5][17] - Mayinglong holds a 48% market share in the hemorrhoid medication retail market, solidifying its position as a leading brand in the anorectal health sector [80] - The company has expanded its product portfolio to include functional skincare, hygiene products, functional foods, and medical devices, with significant growth in eye care and hygiene products [2] Historical Performance - From 2014 to 2023, the company achieved a revenue CAGR of 7.6% and a net profit CAGR of 9.2% [10] - In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue reached RMB 2.79 billion, up 14.13% YoY, while net profit was RMB 458 million, up 9.35% YoY [10][82]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company is a technology-driven enterprise focused on fine chemicals, primarily engaged in the research, development, production, and sales of fine chemicals, including new materials, pharmaceuticals, and pesticide chemicals [2][33] - The company has developed a series of core technologies around fluorination and C-C bond coupling, establishing a highly competitive technology platform [2][33] - The company is the largest professional manufacturer of LiFSI, with a sales volume of 705 tons in 2021, capturing a market share of 10.39% [9][95] - The company has successfully broken foreign monopolies in the organic silicon pressure-sensitive adhesive market, achieving product indicators comparable to international leaders [9][95] - The company has established cooperative relationships with globally renowned pharmaceutical companies such as Merck, Eli Lilly, and Bayer [11] Summary by Sections New Energy Battery Materials - The company has overcome technical difficulties in LiFSI production, becoming the largest manufacturer in this field [9][95] - In 2021, the global demand for LiFSI was approximately 6,788 tons, with the company achieving a sales volume of 705 tons [9][95] Organic Silicon Materials - The company has applied C-C bond coupling technology to the production of MQ silicone resin, achieving domestic production of pressure-sensitive adhesives [9][95] - The market size for this segment is approximately 1 billion yuan, with the company holding about 10% market share [9][95] Display Materials - The company has industrialized the coupling reaction using water as a solvent, with a sales volume of display materials reaching 128.73 tons in 2021 [30][61] - The company's liquid crystal monomer products, primarily fluorine-containing single crystals, account for about 50% of the global market share [30][61] Pharmaceutical and Pesticide Chemicals - The company has seen a compound annual growth rate of 118.44% in pharmaceutical and pesticide chemical revenue from 2020 to 2022, significantly outpacing the overall industry growth [11][74] - The company has established production capabilities for acetamiprid, with a market share of approximately 4%-6% in 2021 [11][74] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue was 341 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.08%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 9 million yuan, down 88.12% [10][29] - The CDMO business generated 167 million yuan in revenue, accounting for 48.90% of total revenue [10][29]

[Table_MainInfo] 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观专题报告 2024 年 12 月 23 日 Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 变局： 逆全球化与去美元化… 短期展望：2025 年美元或仍偏强 目 录 2. 3. 宏观专题报告 3 美元兑日元走势与美日利差相关性同样较高 2024 年 10 月以来，美元指数持续走高，11 月 22 日一度突破 108，目前仍处于近两 年以来的高位。短期内美元是否还能继续维持强势？若站在更长的时间维度来看，美元 目前处于周期的哪个位置？在当前地缘冲突频发、国际秩序经历深刻变化的背景下，美 元又会迎来哪些变局？本篇专题主要对以上问题进行分析。 图1 当前美元指数或仍处于第三轮上行周期 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 美元指数 资料来源：Wind，HTI 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 从数据上也可以看出，美国家庭储蓄率与经常账户赤字的变动较为一致。1970-2008 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the financial IT service industry, highlighting the strong market position of leading companies and the expected growth driven by technological advancements and policy support [46][55]. Core Insights - The financial IT service market is experiencing rapid expansion, with increasing demand for data and technology solutions from financial institutions. The market size is projected to grow from approximately 44 billion in 2022 to 75 billion by 2028 [13][18]. - Leading companies in the industry, such as 恒生电子 (Hang Seng Electronics), 金证股份 (Jinzheng Co.), and 顶点软件 (Dingdian Software), are leveraging their technological capabilities and high R&D investment to maintain competitive advantages [38][84]. - The shift towards distributed architecture in trading systems is becoming mainstream, driven by the need for low latency and high concurrency in securities trading [54][55]. Summary by Sections Financial IT Market Overview - The financial information service market has evolved significantly since its inception in 2005, with a notable increase in investor numbers and market demand for diverse financial products [13][18]. - The number of investors in China reached approximately 210 million by the end of 2022, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.46% [13]. Company-Specific Insights - **金证股份 (Jinzheng Co.)**: The company has shifted its business focus towards financial services, increasing its revenue share from 30.7% in 2020 to 39.5% in 2023, with financial services gross margins nearing 50% [3][30]. - **恒生电子 (Hang Seng Electronics)**: The company is recognized for its high-performance trading systems and has achieved a leading position in the Asian fintech market, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from wealth technology services [38][40]. - **顶点软件 (Dingdian Software)**: The company has developed a "1+3" technology platform that includes a memory database and three cloud platforms, enhancing its service offerings in the financial sector [23][84]. Technological Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of low-latency and high-concurrency requirements in the securities industry, with distributed architectures being favored for their flexibility and efficiency [54][55]. - AI technology is increasingly being integrated into financial IT solutions, particularly in areas such as quantitative investment and risk management [47][84]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the financial IT industry is stable, with leading firms maintaining high market shares and strong customer loyalty, which allows them to command higher margins [46][55]. - Policy initiatives are expected to further boost IT investments by securities firms, enhancing the overall growth trajectory of the industry [46][55].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Topsports International (6110) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 3.79 per share, based on a FY2026 PE of 12x [5][23] Core Views - FY25Q3 sales showed sequential improvement, with total retail and wholesale sales declining mid-single-digit YoY, compared to a 10-20% low-end decline in FY25Q2 [2][15] - Inventory reduction is progressing smoothly, with inventory expected to return to healthy levels by FY25 end (Feb 2025) [3][22] - Nike FY25Q2 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of USD 12.35 billion, down 9% YoY (currency neutral), and net profit of USD 1.16 billion, down 26% YoY [4][16] - Nike plans to clear inventory by the first half of next year and focus on professional sports, extending partnerships with NFL, NBA, and PSG [5][17] Financial Performance and Forecast - FY2025-FY2027 net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at RMB 1.325/1.800/2.152 billion, with FY2026 EPS of RMB 0.29 [5][23] - FY25H1 inventory was RMB 6.12 billion, up 6.4% YoY, with inventory turnover days at 148 days, up 7 days YoY [3][22] - FY25H1 gross profit margin was 41.1%, down 3.6% YoY, due to deeper discounts to optimize inventory [3][22] Industry and Market Context - Nike's CEO emphasized strengthening ties with core partners like Topsports International and Pou Sheng International, and repositioning NIKE DIGITAL to focus on full-price models [4][16] - Nike plans to accelerate inventory clearance in H2 (Dec 2024-May 2025) and focus on professional sports, launching new products like Vomero 18 and Pegasus Premium [5][17] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The report values Topsports International at a FY2026 PE of 12x, translating to a target price of HKD 3.79 per share [5][23] - Comparable companies include JD Sports Fashion, Fraser, and Pou Sheng International, with median PE ratios of 9.1x, 10.3x, and 9.2x for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [8]