研究报告 Research Report 27 Nov 2024 中国必需消费 & 可选消费 China (Overseas) Staples & Discretionary HTI 东南亚消费行业 10 月跟踪报告：通胀水平表现分化，估值水平有所提升 Inflation level performance is divided, P/E ratios have increased [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the overall opportunities in the excavator industry outweigh the risks, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this sector [3][17]. Core Insights - In October 2024, excavator sales reached 16,791 units, marking a 15.1% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales up 21.6% and exports up 9.46% [2][15]. - The report highlights that operating hours and utilization rates for excavators have improved, with Komatsu excavators operating 101 hours in October 2024, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][15]. - Upcoming policies aimed at addressing local government debt and stabilizing the real estate market are expected to marginally improve excavator demand [3][16]. - The report anticipates that domestic excavator sales growth may continue due to the positive effects of these policies and a recovering market environment [3][17]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first ten months of 2024, a total of 164,172 excavators were sold, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.47%, with domestic sales at 82,211 units (up 9.8%) and exports at 81,961 units (down 7.41%) [2][15]. Policy Impact - The report discusses significant policy measures proposed by the Finance Ministry to support local governments in managing debt, which could lead to increased infrastructure and real estate projects, thereby boosting excavator demand [3][16]. Key Companies to Watch - The report recommends monitoring companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, XCMG Construction Machinery, Guangxi Liugong Machinery, Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic, and Zhejiang Dingli Machinery for potential investment opportunities [3][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][13][31] Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth and improved profit margins, achieving a revenue of CNY 14.27 billion (+10.2%) and a net profit of CNY 0.77 billion (+72.8%) for the first half of FY25 [7][23] - The consolidation of the advertising business in the health category has enhanced operational efficiency and pricing capabilities, contributing to the simultaneous improvement of gross and net profit margins [23][27] - The self-operated pharmaceutical business and the pharmaceutical e-commerce platform business have reported revenues of CNY 12.12 billion (+5.9%) and CNY 1.71 billion (+67.5%) respectively, while the medical health and digital services segment saw a decline in revenue [24][25][26] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for FY25 and FY26 are CNY 29.78 billion and CNY 32.80 billion, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 10.2% and 10.1% [10][30] - The net profit forecasts for FY25 and FY26 remain at CNY 1.56 billion and CNY 1.98 billion, reflecting improved operational efficiency and steady growth in the advertising business [10][30] - The company's gross profit margin is projected to increase to 23.9% in FY25 and 24.5% in FY26, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6][10] Valuation - Using the DCF valuation method, the company's equity value is estimated at HKD 87.15 billion, corresponding to a target share price of HKD 5.42, reflecting a 14.5% downward adjustment from previous estimates [13][31]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the electronics industry, but it provides insights into various segments and companies within the industry [3]. Core Insights - The semiconductor equipment and materials sectors are expected to see a positive trend starting from Q3 2024, with capital expenditures related to memory ICs showing significant growth [5]. - The consumer electronics market, particularly personal smart audio devices, is experiencing a strong rebound, with a 15% year-on-year increase in shipments [7]. - The panel market is projected to end a five-year decline in shipments, with an expected annual growth of 0.6% in 2024 [7]. Segment Investment Strategies Semiconductor Equipment / Materials / Packaging / Foundry - Global semiconductor capital expenditures decreased in the first half of 2024 but are expected to grow by 27% in Q4 compared to Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 31% [5]. - Memory-related capital expenditures are projected to increase by 39% year-on-year in Q4 2024 [5]. IC Design - Memory - Demand for memory products is primarily driven by AI servers, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 8% to 13% due to the increasing proportion of HBM [5]. Consumer Electronics - The global personal smart audio device market saw shipments reach approximately 126 million units in Q3 2024, marking a 15% year-on-year increase [7]. - The global TV shipment volume reached 52.33 million units in Q3 2024, with a projected increase of 2.5% in Q4 [7]. Panel Market - The global TV shipment volume is expected to reach 196.7 million units in 2024, ending a five-year decline [7]. Key Companies and Valuation Data - Longchuan Technology (300604.SZ) has a target price of 37.35 CNY per share with a market cap of 28.78 billion CNY [11]. - North Huachuang (002371.SZ) has a target price of 448.06 CNY per share with a market cap of 225.26 billion CNY [11]. - BOE Technology (000725.SZ) has a target price of 5.73 CNY per share with a market cap of 159.64 billion CNY [13]. Weekly Market Review - The semiconductor index increased by 1.73% week-on-week, while the overall electronics index decreased by 3.29% [19]. - Year-to-date, the electronics index has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.38 percentage points [19].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on leading companies within various sectors, particularly in light industry and home furnishing, suggesting a focus on cyclical sectors and key players for potential investment opportunities [2][6][55]. Core Insights - The report highlights that since early 2024, businesses have faced weak demand and complex market conditions, particularly in the real estate sector, which remains low. It suggests that leading companies are better positioned to withstand risks and maintain growth through effective management, cost control, and branding strategies [2][55]. - In the paper industry, the report notes that while pulp prices increased in the first half of 2024, there was a decline in Q3. However, a recovery in domestic demand and potential price rebounds are expected in Q4, benefiting profits, particularly for integrated pulp-paper firms like Shandong Sun Paper [2][56]. - The furniture sector is under pressure due to declining real estate, changing consumer preferences, and increased competition. However, policies such as trade-in programs in Q4 2024 may support recovery, with key targets including Oppein Home Group and Zbom Home Collection [3][58]. - Light industry exports have shown resilience despite US tariffs since 2018, with leading firms maintaining stable growth and profitability through strategies like cost control and capacity shifts. Key targets include Ziel Home Furnishing Technology and Aima Technology [3][59]. - The two-wheeler sector is benefiting from new safety standards and national policies promoting high-quality development, with leading firms like Aima Technology and Yadea Group positioned to gain from first-mover advantages [3][59]. - The personal care sector is characterized by strong consumer demand, with leading companies expanding e-commerce channels and enhancing brand influence, particularly Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co., Ltd. [3][60]. Summary by Sections Paper Industry - The report indicates that the first half of 2024 saw pressure from rising pulp prices, but Q3 experienced declines. A recovery in demand and price rebounds are anticipated in Q4, benefiting profits for integrated pulp-paper firms [2][56]. Packaging and Printing - Recovery in both export and domestic demand is expected to boost revenue and profit for packaging companies, with performance anticipated to improve in 2024 as demand strengthens [2][57]. Furniture and Home Furnishing - The furniture sector faces challenges from declining real estate and changing consumer preferences, but potential policy support in Q4 2024 may aid recovery. Key companies to watch include Oppein Home Group and Zbom Home Collection [3][58]. Light Industry Exports - Despite the impact of US tariffs, leading firms in light industry exports have maintained stable growth and profitability, with strategies enhancing competitiveness. Key targets include Ziel Home Furnishing Technology and Aima Technology [3][59]. Two-Wheelers - The two-wheeler sector is experiencing favorable conditions due to new safety standards and national policies, benefiting leading firms like Aima Technology and Yadea Group [3][59]. Personal Care - The personal care sector shows strong consumer demand, with leading companies enhancing their market presence through e-commerce and brand promotion, particularly Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co., Ltd. [3][60].

Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 宏观研究 证券研究报告 [Table_MainInfo] 宏观周报 2024-11-25 美国：降息预期回落 ——海外经济政策跟踪 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。上周（2024.11.15-2024.11.22），全球大类资产价格中， 主要经济体股市涨跌互现。标普 500 涨幅为 1.7%，恒生指数和日经 225 指数分 别下跌 1.0%和 0.9%；伦敦金现和 IPE 布油期货价格均上涨 6.0%；10 年期美债 收益率较前一周回落 2BP 至 4.41%，国内 10Y 国债期货价格上涨 0.1%；美元指 数较前一周上涨 0.8%，报收 107.5，日元贬值，美元兑日元收 154.8，人民币小 幅贬值，美元兑人民币汇率收 7.2。 经济：美国方面，10 月成屋销售同比超预期回升，已开工的新建私人住宅同比 回落；30 年期抵押贷款利率回升至 6.8%，仍处历史高位；11 月 Markit 制造业 和服务业 PMI 均有所回升。 通胀预期有所回升。截至 11 月 22 日，美国 5 年期通胀预期为 2.43%，较前一 周 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a shift in the funding landscape of the A-share market, with institutional funds that previously flowed in starting to show signs of outflow since mid-October, while retail and leveraged funds have been supporting market activity [2][3][12] - The report highlights that the trading enthusiasm among retail investors has cooled down since mid-November, with net outflows of leveraged funds amounting to 8.5 billion yuan [2][3][15] - It suggests that the short-term market direction should focus on trading volume and turnover data, while the medium-term outlook will be driven by fundamentals, particularly in the technology and mid-to-high-end manufacturing sectors [2][4][5] Funding Dynamics - Since September 24, there has been a significant inflow of active funds, including retail, leveraged, and private equity funds, contributing to the market's rise [3][13] - The report notes that foreign capital saw a record net inflow of 82.9 billion yuan in a single week on September 27, but has since turned to net outflows, with an estimated outflow of 29.7 billion yuan by November 22 [14][16] - The report emphasizes that while institutional funds have been withdrawing, retail and leveraged funds have remained active, indicating a structural rebalancing in the market [16] Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - The report states that the trading volume and turnover rates have decreased from their peak, with the rolling five-day trading volume dropping from 2.6 trillion yuan to 1.7 trillion yuan by November 22 [12][19] - It highlights that retail investor activity has surged, with the number of active users on securities service apps reaching 18.43 million in October, a 15.8% increase from September [15][16] - The report also mentions that the sentiment among retail investors has started to decline, leading to tighter micro liquidity in the market [16] Corporate Actions and Market Support - The report indicates that since September 24, the scale of share buybacks by listed companies has not kept pace with the increase in shareholdings, with a cumulative buyback amount of approximately 17 billion yuan [25][26] - It notes that major shareholders have significantly increased their selling activities, with net reductions reaching 29.6 billion yuan since September 24, compared to only 5 billion yuan in the first eight months of the year [25][26] - The report anticipates that with policy support, the scale of buybacks and increases in holdings is expected to expand, providing stability to the market [25] Sector Focus - The report identifies technology manufacturing and mid-to-high-end manufacturing as potential medium-term market leaders, driven by favorable policies and technological advancements [5][33] - It highlights that the technology sector is expected to benefit from policy support and the application of AI, with projected net profit growth rates for electronics and communications sectors at 30% and 20% respectively for 2024 and 2025 [33][34] - The mid-to-high-end manufacturing sector is expected to maintain its growth due to strong supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the automotive and home appliance industries [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Outperform** rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of **HKD 23.19**, revised from HKD 19.91, representing a 16% increase [3][10] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved **RMB 44.40 billion** in revenue in Q3 2024, a **6.6% YoY increase**, with **Non-IFRS net profit** reaching **RMB 2.60 billion**, up **205.1% YoY** [2][7] - The **Non-IFRS net profit margin** rose to **5.8%**, a **3.8 percentage point increase** from 2.0% in 2023 [2][7] - The company's **integrated supply chain business** contributed **RMB 20.70 billion**, a **5.4% YoY growth**, driven by increased revenue from JD Group and external clients [2][8] - External integrated supply chain clients reached **57,900**, a **9% YoY increase**, with **average revenue per client** at **RMB 133,000** [2][8] - Revenue from other clients grew **7.6% YoY** to **RMB 23.70 billion**, primarily due to increased parcel volume in express delivery and freight business [2][8] Financial Performance - **Gross profit margin** improved to **11.7%**, a **7.9 percentage point increase** from Q3 2023, driven by product and network optimization, technology-driven efficiency, and refined resource management [3][9] - **Operating costs** were **RMB 39.20 billion**, up **2.2% YoY**, reflecting effective cost control measures [3][9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to reach **RMB 178.91 billion**, a **7.4% YoY increase**, with a **Non-IFRS net profit margin** of **4.3%** [3][10] - The company's valuation method shifted from **PS to PE** as it entered a stable profit phase, with **Non-IFRS net profit** expected to be **RMB 7.77 billion** in 2024 and **RMB 9.45 billion** in 2025 [3][10] - The current market capitalization implies a **2024/2025 valuation** of **11X/9X**, with a reasonable valuation range of **15X**, corresponding to the target price of **HKD 23.19** [3][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Meihua Holdings Group [1][4][14] Core Views - The company intends to acquire the HMO business of Kyowa Hakko, which will accelerate its overseas expansion [1][10][12] - The acquisition is valued at 10.5 billion yen (approximately 500 million RMB) and involves the purchase of food amino acids, pharmaceutical amino acids, and HMO businesses and assets [1][10][14] - The acquisition will enhance the company's technological capabilities, business structure, product structure, and industrial layout [12][14] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2024 is 28.56 billion RMB, with a net profit of 3.03 billion RMB [2][8][14] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.06 RMB, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.91 [2][8][14] - The company expects net profits to grow to 3.46 billion RMB in 2025 and 3.87 billion RMB in 2026 [2][14] Acquisition Details - The acquisition will add new amino acid categories and strains, extending the company's product offerings [12][14] - The company will gain fermentation strains and patents for over ten types of amino acids, enhancing its production capabilities [12][14] - The transaction is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Shandong Publishing with a target price of 13.16 RMB per share, based on an 18x PE valuation for 2024 [4][72] Core Views - Shandong Publishing is a leading integrated cultural industry enterprise in Shandong, with a comprehensive business model covering publishing, printing, distribution, and supply, along with emerging sectors like digital publishing and study tourism [2][35] - The company's textbook and supplementary materials business remains stable, benefiting from the growing student population in Shandong and the essential nature of educational materials [3][9] - Shandong Publishing is actively expanding its innovative businesses, including study tourism and digital transformation, which are expected to contribute significantly to future growth [3][12][62] - The company has a strong track record of high dividend payouts, with dividend ratios increasing from 47.65% in 2021 to 49.19% in 2023, and is expected to maintain stable dividend payments [4][64] Business Segments Textbook and Supplementary Materials - The textbook business is a core revenue driver, with revenue growing from 5.54 billion RMB in 2020 to 6.88 billion RMB in 2023, achieving a compound growth rate of 7.49% [3][9] - Self-compiled textbook revenue grew at a compound rate of 11.91%, while rental textbook revenue grew at 9.13% from 2020 to 2023 [3] - The company has a strong brand advantage in Shandong, with a well-established textbook system and a growing student population, particularly in higher grades [3][9][46] General Book Publishing - The company published 15,841 books and 141 audio-visual products in 2023, with a reprint rate of 78.5% [3] - General book publishing revenue has been volatile, with a compound growth rate of -4.25% from 2020 to 2023, but the company is focusing on producing high-quality books and expanding sales channels, including short videos [3][10][61] Innovative Businesses - Study tourism revenue grew over 60% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, driven by the development of branded study courses and the expansion of the tourism industry chain [3][12][62] - The company is accelerating its digital transformation, including smart campus projects, after-school services, and digital innovation initiatives [3][12][63] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from 12.85 billion RMB in 2024 to 14.66 billion RMB in 2026, with a compound growth rate of 6.0% [4][72] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.53 billion RMB in 2024, 1.61 billion RMB in 2025, and 1.70 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of -35.8%, 5.6%, and 5.4%, respectively [4][72] - The company's dividend payout ratio has increased steadily, from 47.65% in 2021 to 49.19% in 2023, and is expected to remain stable [4][64] Strategic Initiatives - The company acquired Shandong Laoganbu Zhijia Magazine Co Ltd for 72.68 million RMB in 2023 to avoid competition with its parent group and strengthen its publishing business [4][69] - Shandong Publishing is actively expanding its digital and innovative businesses, including study tourism, smart education, and digital publishing, to drive future growth [3][12][62][63]