Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating for HSBC Holdings PLC (5 HK) with a target price of HKD 61.51 [55] Core Viewpoints - HSBC Holdings PLC's Q3 2024 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by strong non-interest income growth and reduced provisions [1][2] - Revenue increased by **5.2% YoY**, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of **-0.1%**, while net profit attributable to common shareholders rose by **9.2% YoY**, outperforming the consensus estimate of **-2.4%** [2][7] - Non-interest income surged by **35.4% YoY**, significantly higher than the expected **9.5%**, while net interest income declined by **17.4% YoY**, below the consensus estimate of **-12.0%** [2] - The cost-to-income ratio improved to **47.9%**, down **1.4 percentage points YoY**, better than the consensus estimate of **51.1%** [2] Business Performance - **Wealth and Personal Banking** revenue grew by **10.3% YoY**, exceeding the consensus estimate of **2.8%** [3][6] - **Commercial Banking** revenue declined by **0.7% YoY**, but still outperformed the consensus estimate of **-2.0%** [3][6] - **Global Banking and Markets** revenue increased by **13.5% YoY**, surpassing the consensus estimate of **3.7%** [3][6] - Total customer loans grew by **3.5% YoY**, higher than the consensus estimate of **0.8%**, while total deposits increased by **6.2% YoY**, above the consensus estimate of **2.5%** [3] Financial Metrics - The net interest margin (NIM) declined by **16 basis points QoQ** to **1.46%**, below the consensus estimate of **1.57%** [3] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased by **4 basis points QoQ** to **2.47%**, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of **2.45%** [3] - The CET1 ratio improved to **15.2%**, up **0.3 percentage points YoY**, exceeding the HSBC analyst estimate of **14.9%** [4] - Return on equity (ROE) increased by **0.9 percentage points YoY** to **14.4%**, above the consensus estimate of **13.5%** [4] Key Drivers - The reduction in credit loss provisions to **USD 986 million**, down **7.9% YoY**, contributed to the better-than-expected profit, driven by lower provisions in the Commercial Banking and Global Banking & Markets segments, particularly in mainland China's commercial real estate sector [3] - The strong performance in non-interest income, particularly in wealth management and capital markets, offset the decline in net interest income [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy [1][8]. Core Views - The recurring net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 16.48% year-on-year, with operating revenue reaching 10.372 billion yuan, a 29.04% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - The first phase of the Alashan project has been fully commissioned, with all production lines operating normally and no immediate plans for maintenance shutdowns [6][7]. - The company has secured water rights of 5 million cubic meters per year, ensuring sufficient water supply for its production needs [7]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.670 billion yuan, with further increases expected in subsequent years, reaching 3.041 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.624 billion yuan in 2026 [8]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 42.63%, an increase of 5.23 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 25.99%, up by 2.69 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The company's accounts receivable and prepayments increased significantly, by 106.58% and 116.48% year-on-year, respectively, attributed to higher sales volumes and increased credit sales [5].

Industry Overview - The demand for HFCs in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10-15% [2] - India has implemented a quota system for second-generation refrigerants [11] - The Indian HFC industry is dominated by SRF, which holds approximately 60% of the market share [6] Demand Analysis - The total demand for R32 in India is approximately 18,000 tons per year, with 12,000 tons for OEM and 6,000 tons for the aftermarket [3] - R134a, primarily used in automotive air conditioning, has a total demand of 13,000 tons per year [3] - The demand for R410a, a mixture of R32 and R125, is around 3,000 tons per year [2] Supply Analysis - India's total HFC production capacity is approximately 63,000 tons, with SRF contributing 29,500 tons of R32, 8,000 tons of R125, and 12,000 tons of R134a [7] - NFIL is set to add 4,500 tons of R32 capacity by February 2025 [7] - India's HFC production exceeds domestic demand, primarily to meet export needs, especially to the US and the Middle East [9] Export and Import Trends - R32 export prices have declined from $8.3/kg in Q1FY23 to $4.3/kg in Q1FY25 [24] - R125 export prices dropped from $18.6/kg in Q1FY23 to $6.4/kg in Q1FY25 [24] - R134a import prices increased from $2.8/kg in Q1FY23 to $3.7/kg in Q1FY25 [26][29] Key Players - SRF is the largest player in the Indian HFC market, with a total capacity of 47,000 tons, including 27,000 tons of R32, 12,000 tons of R134a, and 8,000 tons of R125 [32] - NFIL has expanded its R32 capacity to 8,500 tons and has partnered with Honeywell to produce HFOs [35][36] - GFL focuses on R22 production for fluoropolymers and has a significant presence in the global fluorochemical market [40][41] Regulatory and Environmental Factors - India is phasing out HCFCs, with a cumulative reduction target of 97.5% by 2030 and complete elimination by 2040 [13][14] - India plans to reduce HFC production by 10% in 2032, 20% in 2037, 30% in 2042, and 85% in 2047 [15][16] - The Indian government promotes the use of HFCs as alternatives to reduce carbon footprints, with R410a and R32 being the most common substitutes for HCFC-22 [12]

Domestic Macro Policies - The State Council announced the "Regulations on Export Control of Dual-Use Items" on October 19, 2024, detailing procedures for the formulation and adjustment of export control lists [7] - The Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions on accelerating the high-quality development of doctoral education on October 20, 2024, emphasizing the need for a world-class doctoral education system [8] - On October 21, 2024, the Central Committee and the State Council released opinions on deepening the reform of the industrial workforce, focusing on skill development and career advancement for workers [8] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission published guidelines on fostering new productive forces and promoting high-quality development of state-owned enterprises on October 23, 2024 [8] Domestic Industry Policies - The State Administration for Market Regulation held a meeting on the industrial application and quality improvement of domestic automotive chips on October 19, 2024, marking a new phase in quality certification [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the digital transformation implementation plan for the power equipment manufacturing industry on October 23, 2024, aiming for significant progress by 2027 [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the expansion of pilot programs for value-added telecommunications services on October 23, 2024, allowing foreign companies to operate independently in designated areas [9] Domestic Local Policies - The Hebei Provincial Government issued measures to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market on October 19, 2024, encouraging promotional activities by real estate companies [12] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority released a "Sustainable Finance Action Plan" on October 21, 2024, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2030 [12] - The Guangdong Provincial Government published an action plan for accelerating the innovative development of the optical chip industry from 2024 to 2030 on October 22, 2024, targeting breakthroughs in key technologies [12] Overseas Important Information - On October 19, 2024, President Putin stated that China and Russia would strengthen cooperation in energy, agriculture, infrastructure, and technology [14] - The Canadian government announced on October 20, 2024, that Canadian companies could apply for tariff exemptions on electric vehicles and steel products imported from China [14] - The U.S. Department of Commerce proposed to partially revoke anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese photovoltaic cells on October 21, 2024 [14]

Macro Environment - Japan's consumer confidence index rose slightly to 36.9 in September, while real wages fell by 0.6% in August [1][2] - Japan's CPI increased by 2.5% YoY in September, with core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising by 2.4%, marking the first slowdown in five months [1][3] - The yen returned to a downward trend in October, with the exchange rate against the US dollar falling by approximately 6% as of October 25 [1][3] - Household real consumption expenditure decreased by 1.9% in August, the second-largest decline this year [1][4] Retail Industry - Japan's retail sales grew by 2.8% YoY in August, marking the 30th consecutive month of growth [1][8] - Apparel retail sales surged by 11.3% YoY, while drugstore, department store, and food & beverage retail sales grew by 2.7%, 2.6%, and 2.2% respectively [1][8] - Saizeriya and Uniqlo reported same-store sales growth exceeding 20% in September [1][8] Staples Sector - Soft drink sales for Kirin, Suntory, and Asahi declined by 4%, 8%, and 4% YoY respectively in September [1][9] - Beer sales for Asahi and Kirin dropped by 19% and 25% YoY respectively [1][9] - PPIH, AEON Retail, and 7-Eleven Japan reported same-store sales growth of +4.6%, +2.6%, and -0.1% YoY in September [1][9] Discretionary Sector - Saizeriya, Food&Life, Skylark, Toridoll, Sukiya, and McDonald's reported same-store sales growth of +25.0%, +13.8%, +11.0%, +10.8%, +8.5%, and +2.8% YoY in September [1][18] - Uniqlo, ABC-MART, Shimamura, and Workman reported same-store sales growth of +22.1%, +6.1%, +4.3%, and +1.5% YoY in September [1][20] - Department stores Marui, Takashimaya, and Mitsukoshi Isetan reported sales growth of +13.7%, +11.9%, and +1.0% YoY in September [1][22] Equity Market Performance - In September, the textile & apparel, retail, and food & beverage sectors rose by 5.9%, 2.4%, and 2.2% respectively, while the services sector fell by 2.6% [1][30] - Within the staples sector, household goods and brewery stocks rose by 5.9% and 5.7% respectively [1][31] - In the discretionary sector, footwear and leisure facility stocks rose by 7.8% and 5.2% respectively [1][32] Investment Recommendations - ASICS is recommended due to its rapid overseas expansion and improved gross profit margins [1][42] - PPIH is highlighted for its strong performance driven by overseas tourist consumption and increased average transaction prices [1][42] - Fast Retailing (Uniqlo) is noted for its strong domestic sales and ongoing overseas store network expansion [1][42] - Asahi Group is recommended for its improved product mix in the domestic beer market and premiumization in Europe and Oceania [1][42]

Investment Rating - The report provides a 2024E P/B of 0.9x and a 2024E P/E of 6.3x for the Bank of Ningbo, with a TTM dividend yield of 2.3%, compared to industry averages of 0.6x, 5.5x, and 4.7% respectively [1][5]. Core Insights - The Bank of Ningbo reported a revenue increase of 8.1% YoY in Q3 2024, with profit before provision rising by 21.7% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 10.3% YoY [1][5]. - The annualized ROA for the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.96%, down by 0.06 percentage points YoY, while the annualized ROE was 14.51%, down by 1.43 percentage points YoY [1][5]. - The net interest margin for Q1-3 2024 was 1.85%, a decrease of 2 basis points from H1 2024, but the net interest income improved to +16.9% YoY [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For Q1-3 2024, revenue grew by 7.4% YoY, profit before provision increased by 13.5% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent rose by 7.0% YoY [1][5]. - Q3 2024 net interest income was up 21.3% YoY, indicating a solid performance in interest income generation [2][6]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans increased by 16.2% compared to the end of 2023, with corporate loans contributing 76.0% of the loan increment, growing by 23.4% [3][6]. - Deposits grew by 19.0%, with personal deposits increasing by 19.4% and corporate deposits by 18.9% [3][6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, maintaining this level for seven consecutive quarters, while the attention rate increased slightly to 1.08% [3][6]. - The provision coverage ratio was reported at 404.8%, reflecting a slight decrease of 3.1 percentage points [3][6]. Cost Management - The cost-to-income ratio for Q1-3 2024 was 33.43%, a decrease of 3.80 percentage points YoY, indicating improved cost efficiency [2][6]. - Operating expenses decreased by 2.4% YoY, with business and management fees down by 3.5% [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the transportation sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as Spring Airlines, Hainan Airlines Holding, and Juneyao Airlines [5][46]. Core Insights - The transportation index increased by 1.8% from October 21 to October 25, 2024, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.2% during the same period [2][22]. - Key subsectors showing strong performance include cross-border logistics (+4.5%), air transport (+4.0%), and shipping (+3.6%) [2][22]. - The report highlights significant growth in passenger traffic through the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, which welcomed over 62.30 million visitors in six years [33][34]. Weekly Market Review - The transportation index rose by 1.8%, with notable increases in cross-border logistics, air transport, and shipping [2][22]. - The report tracks oil transport prices, Mongolian coal transport, and national highway freight traffic [2][42]. Shipping Observations - As of October 25, 2024, the SCFI index was at 2185.33, reflecting a 6.0% increase from the previous week, while the BDI index decreased by 10.5% to 1410 [3][29]. - The report notes a decline in the BDTI and BCTI indices, indicating a slight decrease in oil transport rates [29][31]. Recent Highlights - The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge has seen a significant increase in traffic, with over 6.23 million visitors in six years and a notable rise in the number of vehicles [33][34]. - The Changzhou hub reported a cargo throughput of 183 million tons, surpassing last year's total 70 days early, indicating strong shipping activity [33][34]. - The express delivery sector experienced a peak season with record daily parcel volumes, reflecting a 48.7% year-on-year increase [33][34]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the aviation sector due to expected recovery in international travel demand and stable growth in domestic travel [4][46]. - In the express delivery sector, companies like S.F. Holding and Yunda Holding are highlighted for their performance despite recent declines in average selling prices [44][46]. - The shipping sector is recommended for investment due to tight supply-demand dynamics in oil transport, which is expected to support profit margins [45][46].

研究报告 Research Report 28 Oct 2024 川恒股份 Guizhou Chanhen Chemical (002895 CH) 前三季度扣非后净利润同比增长 31.63%，主要产品价格上涨 Recurring Net Profit up 31.63% YOY in the First Three Quarters of 2024, Main Products Prices Increase | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------|--------------|-------------------|--------------------------------|------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for Sichuan Development Lomon, but it highlights significant growth in net profit and revenue, indicating a positive outlook for the company. Core Insights - The recurring net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 42.32% year-on-year, with operating revenue reaching 6.052 billion yuan, up 11.06% year-on-year [1][5] - The growth in performance is attributed to the recovery in the phosphorus chemical industry, improved profit margins on key products, and increased market share [1][5] - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Guotuo Mining to enhance its resource capabilities in the lithium ore sector, with a transaction value of 108.14 million yuan [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024Q3, the company achieved operating income of 2.027 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.88% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 13.02% year-on-year. The recurring net profit was 142 million yuan, down 23.11% quarter-on-quarter but up 32.29% year-on-year [1][5] - The gross profit margin on sales for the first three quarters of 2024 was 15.78%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [2][5] Market Position and Strategy - The company maintains an integrated development model combining mining and chemical production, with significant phosphorus ore reserves of approximately 130 million tonnes [3][5] - The company is expanding into the new energy sector, focusing on lithium iron phosphate and iron phosphate products to meet market demand [3][5] Acquisition Plans - The acquisition of Guotuo Mining is aimed at filling a gap in lithium resource capabilities, with inferred lithium ore resources estimated at 131.6 thousand tonnes [4][5]

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment industry has a positive cumulative excess return of +2.29 percentage points relative to the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of October 21 to October 25, 2024, ranking it eleventh among all industries. However, the year-to-date cumulative excess return is -9.69 percentage points [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in excavator sales, with an estimated 16,000 units sold in October 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 10%. Domestic sales are expected to grow nearly 18%, while export sales are projected to increase by about 3% [5]. - Japan's machine tool orders from China have surged by 40.1% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of growth, while orders from the U.S. and Europe have declined significantly [2]. - The industrial gas sector is witnessing price increases, with liquid oxygen and nitrogen prices rising by 2.05% and 2.4% respectively, although year-on-year comparisons show declines [2]. - The rail transit equipment sector has seen the completion of a new production facility for low-voltage power devices, which will primarily serve the electric vehicle market [3]. - The forklift industry is experiencing growth, with Hangcha Group reporting a 21.20% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Machine Tools - Japan's orders for machine tools from China increased by 40.1% year-on-year, while overall orders from Japan decreased by 6.4% in September [2]. Industrial Gases - Hangzhou Oxygen's first liquid hydrogen storage tank was successfully delivered, and prices for various industrial gases have shown a rising trend [2]. Rail Transit Equipment - The completion of a new production facility for low-voltage power devices aims to meet the growing demand in the electric vehicle sector [3]. Forklifts - Hangcha Group reported a total revenue of 12.733 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit increase of 21.20% [3]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector's import and export trade volume increased by 4.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total trade volume of 40.657 billion USD [5]. Lithium Battery Equipment - The first mass production line for all-solid-state lithium batteries has been launched, with an annual production capacity of approximately 0.2 GWh [6]. Shipbuilding - China's shipbuilding industry has shown growth in all three major indicators, with a completion volume of 36.34 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.2% [6]. Photovoltaic Equipment - Prices for polysilicon and battery cells remained stable, while silicon wafer prices saw a decrease of 4% [7]. Export Chain - The Chinese yuan depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar, with the exchange rate reaching 7.12 [8]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China CNR, Hangzhou Oxygen, and Sany Heavy Industry among others for potential investment opportunities [10].