Policy Developments - The State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Construction of a Dual Control System for Carbon Emissions," marking a significant step towards China's "dual carbon" goals[1] - Key targets include enhancing carbon emission statistics and monitoring capabilities by 2025, implementing a dual control system during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and establishing a comprehensive evaluation system for carbon neutrality post-peak[11] ESG Market Overview - The total net asset value of ESG funds in China reached CNY 469.2 billion in Q3 2024, showing a slight decrease of 0.5% from Q2 2024[24] - New ESG fund issuance totaled 21 funds in Q3 2024, with a total issuance scale of CNY 27.8 billion, reflecting historical median levels[24] Carbon Market Dynamics - In Q3 2024, the national carbon market's trading volume reached 17.188 million tons, a 27.7% increase from Q2 2024, with an average closing price of CNY 91.5 per ton, down 3.9% from the previous quarter[16] - Guangdong led in trading activity with a total carbon quota transaction volume of 1.93 million tons, while Beijing had the highest average transaction price at CNY 107.0 per ton[16] International ESG Trends - The U.S. carbon price continued to rise, while Canadian prices fell, and European prices slightly decreased, with the EU carbon market's futures trading volume at 2.23 billion tons, down 8.4% from Q2 2024[19] - The introduction of the EU's Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) aims to enhance corporate transparency and sustainability practices across various sectors[15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the banking industry but discusses the potential positive impact of new loan products on market sentiment and valuations [4][7]. Core Insights - The introduction of loan products aimed at supporting share buybacks and strategic investments by listed companies and major shareholders is expected to enhance overall capital market valuations and positively influence market sentiment [4][6]. - Commercial banks are likely to prioritize risk control while complying with regulatory requirements, focusing on borrowers' financial conditions such as debt-to-asset ratios and cash flow [4][7]. - Companies that may receive credit first are likely to be those that are constituents of major stock indices or existing high-quality credit customers of the banks [4][7]. Summary by Sections Events - A state-owned super large bank has issued a draft proposal for loan products targeting share buybacks and strategic investments, aimed at listed companies and major shareholders holding over 5% of shares. The loans will have terms of 1-3 years with an interest rate of no less than 2.25% [3][6]. - The internal regulations for these loan products are expected to be released by the end of the month, with several companies already expressing interest [3][6]. Comments - The addition of new funds for share buybacks is anticipated to raise the overall valuation level of the capital market and positively influence market sentiment [4][7]. - Risk control will remain a primary consideration for commercial banks, which will assess borrowers based on their financial health and existing credit relationships [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the public data resource industry, indicating that the release of the 'Public Data Resource Authorized Operation Implementation Specification (Trial)' is expected to accelerate substantial progress in public data operations [4][8]. Core Insights - The National Data Bureau's recent release of the draft specification signals encouragement for the development and utilization of public data resources, with a focus on authorizing qualified institutions for data resource development and technical services [5][6]. - The rapid implementation of specific policy rules is expected to foster exploration in public data authorized operations, potentially leading to significant advancements in the industry [6][8]. - The specification emphasizes data security management, ensuring that data is "usable but not visible," which is crucial for maintaining data integrity and security [8]. Summary by Sections - **Policy Implementation**: The National Data Bureau has drafted and released the 'Public Data Resource Authorized Operation Implementation Specification (Trial)', which aims to regulate authorized operations and encourage qualified institutions to engage in public data resource development [5][6]. - **Operational Guidelines**: The specification outlines that operating institutions should be determined through competitive bidding, with a maximum operational term of five years. It also prohibits these institutions from redeveloping delivered public data products, promoting a segmented approach to public data operations [7][8]. - **Data Security**: The report highlights the importance of data security management, requiring institutions to adhere to strict guidelines to prevent unauthorized use of public data resources and mitigate risks associated with data processing [8]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The report identifies several companies that are likely to benefit from the new regulations, including INESA Intelligent Tech, Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings, and others, suggesting a positive outlook for the data element industry chain [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the banking industry but discusses the capital replenishment measures for large state-owned commercial banks, indicating a cautious approach to maintaining capital adequacy [2][3]. Core Insights - The issuance of special treasury bonds is aimed at supporting the replenishment of Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital for large state-owned commercial banks, enhancing their risk resilience and credit issuance capacity to better serve the real economy [11]. - As of Q2 2024, the CET1 ratios of the six major banks are as follows: China Construction Bank 14.01%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China 13.84%, Bank of China 12.03%, Agricultural Bank of China 11.13%, Bank of Communications 10.30%, and Postal Savings Bank of China 9.28% [3][12]. - The current CET1 ratios of ICBC and CCB are deemed sufficient to support potential growth, with the capital replenishment viewed as a precautionary measure [3][12]. - If profit growth is zero over the next three years and risk-weighted assets grow by 15%, the CET1 ratio could drop to around 8% in three years, highlighting the importance of maintaining adequate capital levels [3][12]. - The report notes a potential dilution effect on existing shareholders due to the capital injection, but a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1 would reflect shareholder recognition of the banks' value [3][12]. Summary by Sections Event - On October 12, 2024, it was announced that special treasury bonds would be issued to support the replenishment of CET1 capital for large state-owned commercial banks [11]. Commentary - The report emphasizes the need for precautionary measures in a conservative scenario, with current CET1 ratios indicating a stable position for the major banks [3][12]. - The commentary also discusses the implications of capital replenishment on shareholder value and the overall health of the banking sector [3][12].

[Table_MainInfo] Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观快报点评 2024-10-15 出口为何回落？ ——2024 年 9 月外贸数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 根据海关总署统计，美元计价下，2024 年 9 月我国出口总额同比为 2.4%（8 月为 8.7%）；进口总额同比为 0.3%（8 月为 0.5%）。9 月贸易顺差收窄为 817.1 亿美元。 出口回落：重要经济体景气下滑以及欧盟出口大幅下滑是主要因素。9 月出 口同比增速为 2.4%，较 8 月回落 6.3 个百分点，且季调环比也明显转负。从 国家和地区来看，东盟和俄罗斯贡献较大，而对欧盟、日本、韩国以及英国 等出口均是拖累。 从产品来看，机电产品是主要贡献，劳动密集型产品是主要拖累。此外，从 量价拆分来看，出口数量增速为正的商品数量继续减少，出口价格仍是拖累。 进口继续放缓。9 月我国进口总额同比增速为 0.3%，较 8 月继续下行。从国 家和地区来看，东盟、美国和韩国表现不错，不过这一定程度上与去年低基 数有关。从产品来看，集成电路和大豆表现不 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO US) [1] Core Views - Southern Copper Corporation is recognized as a global copper giant with excellent cost control and significant resource reserves, aiming to increase copper production to 1.3 million tons per year over the next decade with an investment exceeding $15 billion [3][22] - The company reported a net profit of $2.425 billion in 2023, with a 1.8% year-on-year increase in copper production [3] - The target price is set at $155.10, based on a 30x PE valuation for 2025 EPS of $5.17 [24] Company Overview - Southern Copper Corporation is one of the largest integrated copper producers globally, with significant operations in Mexico and Peru, and a copper metal reserve of 44.97 million tons, the largest in the world [3][4] - The company’s revenue from copper products accounted for 76% of total revenue in 2023, with molybdenum products contributing 13% [4] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a net sales figure of $3.1183 billion, a 35.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $950.2 million, up 73.6% from the previous year [6][22] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 reached $1.797 billion, reflecting a 61.1% increase [6] Production and Cost Advantages - The company’s cash cost of copper production, excluding by-product credits, was $4,453 per ton in 2022, which dropped to $1,720 per ton when considering by-product revenues [8] - In 2023, copper production reached 911,014 tons, with a 1.8% increase from 2022, driven by growth in Peru [10] Future Projects - Key projects include Tia Maria, expected to start operations in 2027, and Michiquillay, projected to produce 225,000 tons of copper annually starting in 2032 [22] - The company plans to invest over $15 billion in expanding and upgrading existing projects and developing new copper resources over the next decade [22] Industry Outlook - The copper industry faces supply uncertainties due to geopolitical issues and environmental concerns, while demand remains strong, particularly from the renewable energy sector [23]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for Shandong Jianbang New Materials (603285 CH) Core Views - The company is a leader in environmentally friendly additives for polymer materials, focusing on the R&D, production, and sales of these products, which are used as stabilizers, catalysts, plasticizers, and coupling agents in various applications such as PVC plastics and coatings [1][14] - The company has a strong market position with a product system centered around THEIC, titanate, DBM, SBM, and acetylacetonate, which are important substitutes for traditional non-environmentally friendly stabilizers like lead salts [1][14] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and product range to create new revenue and profit growth points [11][16] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the fine chemical industry, focusing on environmentally friendly additives for polymer materials [1][14] - The product system includes key products such as THEIC, titanate, DBM, SBM, and acetylacetonate, which are essential for various applications [1][14] Financial Performance - The company's operating income for 2021-2023 was RMB 1,044 million, RMB 754 million, and RMB 674 million, with net profits of RMB 329 million, RMB 243 million, and RMB 190 million respectively [1][4][14] - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved an operating income of RMB 363 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.70%, while net profit decreased by 2.18% to RMB 96 million [1][14] Product Sales Breakdown - In 2023, THEIC products generated sales of RMB 341 million, accounting for 50.52% of total revenue, while sales of titanate products were RMB 159 million (23.63% of revenue), DBM/SBM products contributed RMB 82 million (12.24%), and acetylacetonate products accounted for RMB 62 million (9.18%) [2][15] - The sales of DBM/SBM products increased by 28.13% year-on-year, while acetylacetonate products saw a growth of 21.57% [2][15] Capacity Expansion - The company plans to invest RMB 1.048 billion in a new production base for environmental protection additives, which will include various products with a total annual capacity of 300,000 tons [11][16] - Additional investments include RMB 212 million for a DBM production line expansion and RMB 160 million for a high-purity acetylacetonate project [11][16] Market Opportunities - The demand for polymer materials and additives is increasing due to urbanization, consumption upgrades in construction materials, and the growth of the automotive market [3][12][17] - The rapid development of the new energy vehicle market is significantly boosting the demand for lithium batteries, which in turn stimulates the upstream materials industry [3][12][17] - Government policies are promoting the development of environmentally friendly additives, creating opportunities for the company to replace traditional toxic additives [3][12][17]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Eaglerise Electric & Electronic with an **OUTPERFORM** rating, setting a target price of RMB 24.33, compared to the current price of RMB 18.99 [2] - The HTI ESG score for the company is 4.3-4.3-4.0, indicating strong environmental, social, and governance practices [2] Core Investment Thesis - Eaglerise has been deeply cultivating the new energy industry for 25 years, with its overseas layout opening significant growth opportunities [5] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 3.63 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.93 billion in 2026, with net profit increasing from RMB 209 million to RMB 576 million over the same period [4] - The company's energy products, particularly photovoltaic step-up transformers and magnetic components, are benefiting from the high growth in the global new energy sector [7] Revenue and Profit Growth - Revenue growth is projected at 29% in 2023, 26% in 2024, 24% in 2025, and 21% in 2026, driven by strong demand in the new energy sector [4] - Net profit growth is expected to be 9% in 2023, 70% in 2024, 32% in 2025, and 22% in 2026, reflecting improving margins and operational efficiency [4] - The company's gross profit margin (GPM) is forecasted to increase from 22.3% in 2023 to 23.7% in 2024, before stabilizing around 22.9% by 2026 [4] Overseas Expansion - Eaglerise has been expanding its overseas presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 27% of total revenue in 2023 [10] - The company has established production bases in Malaysia, Thailand, the US, and Mexico, with further growth expected in overseas markets starting from 2024 [10] New Energy Products - The company's main new energy products include photovoltaic step-up transformers and magnetic components, which are expected to benefit from the global photovoltaic market growth [7] - Global photovoltaic installed capacity is projected to reach 430GW in 2024, with China's new installed capacity expected to exceed 220GW, driven by strong demand [21] Energy Storage and Charging Pile Business - Eaglerise is expanding into energy storage and charging pile businesses, targeting industrial and commercial energy storage and large-scale energy storage power stations [8] - The global energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with new installed capacity reaching 64.62GW in 2024 under conservative estimates and 75.71GW under optimistic scenarios [8] Lighting Industry - The company's lighting products, including LED drivers and lighting fixtures, are benefiting from the global shift towards energy-efficient lighting solutions [26] - The LED lighting market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.4% from 2022 to 2028, reaching RMB 460 billion by 2028 [27] Valuation and Financial Projections - Based on the DCF model, the target price for Eaglerise is set at RMB 24.33, with a projected revenue of RMB 45.9 billion in 2024, RMB 57.1 billion in 2025, and RMB 69.3 billion in 2026 [8] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 8.6% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2026, reflecting stronger profitability and operational efficiency [4] Product Portfolio and Strategy - Eaglerise operates under a "2+X" strategy, focusing on energy products and lighting products, while also expanding into new areas such as energy storage, charging piles, and automotive power supplies [11] - The company's product portfolio includes photovoltaic transformers, industrial control transformers, and LED lighting products, with a strong focus on innovation and market expansion [12]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the coal industry, recommending a focus on coking coal opportunities and stable thermal coal sectors [4][5]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance is set to introduce new policies aimed at boosting coal demand, which includes measures to stabilize growth and mitigate risks [5]. - Post-holiday, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port slightly decreased to RMB 852/ton, reflecting a 1.7% decline from pre-holiday levels, while daily coal consumption in 25 provinces increased by 4.7% year-on-year [3][5]. - The report anticipates that despite short-term fluctuations, coal prices are likely to remain high due to improving economic expectations and recovering non-electric demand [3][5]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement targeted policies to stabilize growth, including resolving local government debt and supporting key groups [5]. - Major banks are adjusting personal mortgage rates, which may further stimulate coal demand [5]. Coal Price Trends - As of October 11, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were RMB 852/ton, down 1.7% from the previous period, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.1% [3][5]. - Daily coal consumption in 25 provinces averaged 5.16 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [3][5]. Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have seen two rounds of increases post-holiday, with a cumulative rise of RMB 250/ton, indicating strong demand supported by macroeconomic policies [3][5]. - The operating rate of coking plants is at 73.1%, with daily iron production at 2.33 million tons, suggesting robust demand for coking coal [3][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coking coal opportunities, highlighting companies such as Huaibei Mining Holdings and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining [4][5]. - It also emphasizes the stability of the thermal coal sector, recommending companies like China Coal Energy and China Shenhua Energy [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) with a target price of 8.11 HKD/share [6][9] Core Views - Kunlun Energy achieved a comprehensive improvement in revenue and profit in H1 2024, driven by growth in natural gas sales volume and continuous optimization of sales structure [2][6] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2025, reflecting confidence in its financial stability and growth prospects [2][6] Financial Performance - Revenue in H1 2024 reached 92.922 billion yuan, a 10.5% YoY increase, with pre-tax profit growing 6.74% YoY to 7.249 billion yuan [2][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 2.6% YoY to 3.305 billion yuan, and the company announced its first mid-term dividend of 16.41 yuan per share [2][6] Natural Gas Business - Natural gas sales volume in H1 2024 grew 10.6% YoY to 264.38 billion cubic meters, with retail gas volume increasing 10.3% YoY to 163.02 billion cubic meters [2][7] - Industrial and commercial gas sales accounted for a larger share of retail gas sales, increasing by 4.6 percentage points YoY, driven by growth in "three new" industrial users (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic products) [2][7] - The company added 449,000 new users, bringing the total to 16.053 million, further solidifying its leading position in the terminal market [2][7] LPG and LNG Business - LPG business achieved a 32.6% YoY increase in pre-tax profit to 561 million yuan, despite a 0.4% YoY decline in sales volume, due to operational efficiency improvements [8] - LNG processing and storage business saw a 22.9% YoY increase in pre-tax profit to 1.648 billion yuan, with LNG gasification and loading volume growing 5.9% YoY to 77.70 billion cubic meters [8] - The average load rate of LNG plants increased by 19.5 percentage points YoY to 58.4%, with self-produced and sold volume growing 11.5% YoY [8] Exploration and Production Business - Exploration and production business faced pressure, with revenue declining 85.5% YoY to 88 million yuan due to the expiration of exploration contracts for Liaohe and Peru oilfields [8] - Crude oil sales decreased by 16.5% YoY to 4.04 million barrels, although the average crude oil price increased by 2.15 USD/barrel to 67.77 USD/barrel [8] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts Kunlun Energy's main business revenue for FY24-26 at 189.98/202.59/215.16 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 5.666/6.077/6.497 billion yuan [9] - The target price is set at 8.11 HKD/share, reflecting the company's stable operations and continuous optimization of its sales structure [9]