[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/机械工业/新能源板块 证券研究报告 行业周报 [Table_InvestInfo] N 型硅料价格继续上调，产业链价格缓慢筑底 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 周观点：本周美国总统大选辩论，我们认为最终选举结果关系到美国的能源政 策，对美国后续对于光伏等新能源的态度有关键影响。此次辩论民主党胜率有 提高趋势，而民主党倾向于气候转型，鼓励大规模发展可再生能源，包括光伏、 风电等，这对于美国新能源市场发展更加有利。另外，习近平近期主持召开全 面推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展座谈会，提出有序推进大型风电光伏基 地和电力外送通道规划建设，加快重点行业清洁能源替代。供应链方面，组件 电池片价格波动，但其他环节保持平稳。我们认为目前市场整体处于周期底部， 政策支持导向明确，长期趋势看好。 本周组合：海外增长趋势明确、且受益于后续可能出现的欧洲降息周期（阳光 电源、锦浪科技、固德威），异质结等新技术持续取得进步（通威股份、迈为股 份），行业格局稳定的辅材龙头（福斯特、福莱特）；0BB 电池技术推广受益的 设备材料商（奥特维、宇邦新材）。 商务部拓展东盟经贸合作，聚焦 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the insurance industry Core Insights - The implementation of the new financial instruments standards has led to increased attention on FVOCI assets within the insurance sector, which are financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income [1][49] - The fair value fluctuations of stock assets significantly impact total investment profits for insurers, with FVOCI's characteristics helping to stabilize income statements by recording changes in other comprehensive income rather than the income statement [1][49] - Insurers face a choice between FVPL and FVOCI for stock investments, with a preference for FVOCI to reduce income statement volatility over the long term [1][49] Summary by Sections 1. New Financial Instruments Standards - The new financial instruments standards were issued by the Ministry of Finance in 2017, aligning with IFRS 9, and require implementation by various insurers by specified deadlines [1][11][12] - Insurers listed both domestically and internationally must implement the new standards by January 1, 2023, while non-listed insurers have until January 1, 2026 [1][12] 2. FVOCI Asset Classification - FVOCI assets include bonds and stocks, but funds cannot be classified as FVOCI [2][28] - Stocks can be designated as FVOCI unless they are part of a merger, which is a rare occurrence [2][32] - Insurers may classify the same asset under different accounting categories based on their management intentions [2][34] 3. Handling of FVOCI Assets - Insurers can reclassify financial assets under certain conditions, with bonds being reclassifiable but not equity assets [2][36] - FVOCI stocks do not require impairment, while bonds under FVOCI must use the expected credit loss model for impairment [2][38] - There are no restrictions on disposing of FVOCI assets, although insurers may impose internal restrictions [2][39] 4. Changes in FVOCI Proportions - By mid-2024, the FVOCI asset proportions for major insurers showed varied changes, with some increasing while others remained stable [2][41] - The proportion of FVOCI stocks among listed insurers increased significantly, indicating a strategic shift towards high-dividend stocks to stabilize income statements [2][44]

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/机械工业/新能源板块 证券研究报告 行业周报 [Table_InvestInfo]俄罗斯或限制铀出口，看好铀价 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 俄罗斯或限制铀出口，若实施，铀价有支撑。俄罗斯总统普京 9 月 11 日表示， 俄罗斯应考虑限制铀、钛和镍等战略性原料出口，以反制西方对俄制裁。他强 调，相关限制举措不必"明天"开始，必须以不损害俄罗斯自身经济利益为前提。 俄罗斯的铀浓缩能力约占全球的 1/3，铀矿开采量约占全球的 5%。2024 年 5 月 13 日，拜登签署《禁止进口俄罗斯铀法案》，根据规定，该法案生效后 90 天， 美国企业将不被允许进口俄罗斯生产的低浓缩铀。法案为因切断俄罗斯铀供应 而不得不关停核反应堆的核电站等公用设施提供豁免，豁免政策最晚于 2028 年 1 月 1 日终止。法案还授权联邦政府支配国会早前批准的 27.2 亿美元资金，用 于提升美国本土铀浓缩能力。美国约 20%的核电燃料由俄罗斯提供，替换需要 一定时间。 天然铀需求：全球纷纷重视核电，天然铀需求有保障。受 2011 年福岛核电站影 响，往后十年，全球核电发展受到抑制。 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/机械工业 证券研究报告 行业月报 [Table_InvestInfo] 轨交设备：1-8 月铁路固定资产投资 yoy+10.5%；第二批高级修订单释放 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 固定资产投资：1-8 月全国铁路固定资产投资同比增长 10.5%，8 月单月全国铁 路固定资产投资同比增长 10.87%。根据中国铁路微信公众号和 Wind，2024 年 1-8 月全国铁路完成固定资产投资 4775 亿元，同比增长 10.5%。8 月单月全国固 定资产投资 673 亿元，同比增长 10.87%。 暑运需求：暑运旅客发送量历史新高，货物发送保持高位运行。根据中国铁路 微信公众号，7 月 1 日至 8 月 31 日，全国铁路累计发送旅客 8.87 亿人次，同比 增长 6.7%，日均发送旅客 1431.2 万人次，创暑运旅客发送量历史新高，其中 8 月 10 日至 12 日连续 3 天单日客流超 1600 万人次；国家铁路累计发送货物 6.7 亿吨，货物发送保持高位运行，铁路运输安全平稳有序。 国铁集团经营情况：国铁集团公布 2024 年上半年财务决算，经营质量 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an **OUTPERFORM** rating with a target price of **HK$25.55**, representing a potential upside from the current price of **HK$18.52** [3] - The stock is valued at **6x PE** for 2024, reflecting confidence in the company's earnings growth [5] Core Views - **Thermal power profitability** significantly improved in H1 2024, with core profits surging **273.9% YoY** to **HKD 2.715 billion**, driven by lower fuel costs and reduced impairments [4][5] - **Renewable energy business** faced profit pressure, with core profits declining **6.7% YoY** to **HKD 5.556 billion**, despite a **5.8% YoY revenue growth**, due to lower utilization hours and electricity prices [5][12] - The company's **ROE** reached **10.7%**, above the 10-year historical average, supported by strong thermal power performance and reduced impairments [4] Financial Performance - **Revenue** remained stable at **HKD 51.12 billion** in H1 2024, while **net profit** surged **38.9% YoY** to **HKD 9.363 billion**, driven by thermal power profitability [4] - **Thermal power revenue** declined **3.3% YoY** to **HKD 33.6 billion**, but **core profits** surged due to a **10.7% YoY decline in average fuel costs** [5] - **Renewable energy revenue** grew **5.8% YoY** to **HKD 13.152 billion**, but profits were pressured by lower utilization hours and electricity prices [12] Strategic Developments - The company continues to advance its **new energy strategy**, with **24.7GW** of renewable energy capacity, accounting for **39.3%** of total installed capacity [5] - **Wind power** capacity reached **19.12GW**, with sales volume increasing **6.9% YoY**, while **photovoltaic sales volume** surged **204.9% YoY** [12] Valuation and Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve **net profits** of **HKD 14.47 billion**, **HKD 16.504 billion**, and **HKD 18.724 billion** for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, driven by thermal power recovery and new energy contributions [5] - **Diluted EPS** is forecasted to grow from **HKD 3.01** in 2024 to **HKD 3.89** in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 36.15 based on a 15x PE valuation for 2024 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 13.3% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, reaching RMB 48.64 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 34.6% to RMB 2.02 billion [1][8]. - The company's profitability improved, with a gross profit margin of 21.28% and a net profit margin of 4.14% for the first half of 2024 [1][8]. - The company is advancing its globalization strategy and optimizing its governance structure, which is expected to support long-term growth in its central air conditioning business [1][8]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 25.16 billion, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, and net profit of RMB 1.04 billion, up 17.3% [1][8]. - The refrigeration business generated RMB 14.69 billion in revenue, growing at 26.8%, while the washing machine segment saw a 49.8% increase in main business revenue [1][8]. - Domestic sales revenue was RMB 25.33 billion, up 3.5% year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached RMB 18.21 billion, a 27.9% increase [1][8]. Segment Analysis - The HVAC business reported revenue of RMB 22.77 billion, a 7.6% increase year-on-year, with Hisense Hitachi contributing RMB 11.34 billion, up 0.3% [1][8]. - The company maintained a market share of over 20% in the multi-split air conditioning market, reinforcing its industry leadership [1][8]. Financial Forecast - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be RMB 2.41, 2.75, and 3.13 respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1][8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 23.1% by 2026 [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for the company Core Viewpoints - The company is the world's largest manufacturer of modified plastics, with a comprehensive range of products used across various industries including automotive, home appliances, electronics, and new energy [1][5] - The company has shown continuous revenue growth from 2021 to the first half of 2024, with operating income increasing from 401.99 billion yuan in 2021 to 233.47 billion yuan in 2024H1, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.73% [2][5] - The demand for environmentally friendly recycled plastics is expected to grow significantly, with the global market projected to reach approximately 27.34 billion USD by 2032, driven by the "double carbon" trend [3][5] - The modified plastics industry is expected to see increased concentration, with the company maintaining a growing market share in key sectors such as automotive and electronics [3][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in May 1993 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in June 2004, focusing on modified plastics, green petrochemicals, new materials, and medical healthcare [1][5] - By the end of 2023, the company had a domestic design capacity of 2.426 million tonnes for modified plastics and various capacities for other products, including 489,000 tonnes for environmentally friendly high-performance recycled plastics [1][5] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating income of 401.99 billion yuan in 2021, 404.12 billion yuan in 2022, 479.41 billion yuan in 2023, and 233.47 billion yuan in 2024H1, with respective year-on-year growth rates of +14.65%, +0.53%, +18.63%, and +14.73% [2][5] - The recurring net profit showed fluctuations, with a significant decline in 2023 due to rising costs and increased expenses, but a slower decline in 2024H1 [2][5] Business Segments - In 2024H1, the modified plastics segment generated 138.87 billion yuan in revenue, a 19.18% increase year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 27.43% to 1.093 million tonnes [2][5] - The green petrochemical segment saw a revenue increase of 48.37%, while the new materials segment achieved a sales volume growth of 27.01% [2][5] - The healthcare segment experienced a decline in sales revenue by 34.13% year-on-year [2][5] Market Trends - The report highlights the growing demand for environmentally friendly recycled plastics, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 10.60% from 2024 to 2032 [3][5] - The modified plastics industry is expected to consolidate, with the company expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, aiming to enhance its market share [3][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for the company Core Viewpoints - The company is the world's largest manufacturer of modified plastics, with a comprehensive product range and significant market presence in various industries including automotive, electronics, and healthcare [1][5] - The company has shown continuous revenue growth from 2021 to the first half of 2024, with operating income increasing from 401.99 billion yuan in 2021 to 233.47 billion yuan in 2024H1, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.73% [2][5] - The demand for environmentally friendly recycled plastics is expected to grow significantly, driven by the "double carbon" trend, with the global market projected to reach approximately 27.34 billion USD by 2032 [3][5] - The modified plastics industry is expected to see increased concentration, with the company maintaining a growing market share in key sectors such as automotive and electronics [3][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in May 1993 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in June 2004, focusing on modified plastics, green petrochemicals, new materials, and medical healthcare [1][5] - By the end of 2023, the company had a domestic design capacity of 2.426 million tonnes for modified plastics and various capacities for other products, including 489,000 tonnes for recycled plastics and 210,000 tonnes for biodegradable plastics [1][5] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating income of 401.99 billion yuan in 2021, with a steady increase to 479.41 billion yuan in 2023, and 233.47 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 14.73% [2][5] - The recurring net profit showed fluctuations, with a significant decline in 2023 due to rising costs and increased expenses, but a slower decline in 2024H1 [2][5] Business Segments - In the modified plastics segment, the company reported a revenue of 138.87 billion yuan in 2024H1, a year-on-year increase of 19.18%, with significant growth in automotive and electronic materials [2][5] - The green petrochemical segment saw a revenue increase of 48.37% in 2024H1, with notable sales in polypropylene and ABS products [2][5] - The new materials segment achieved a sales volume of 9.78 million tonnes in 2024H1, reflecting a growth of 27.01% year-on-year [2][5] Market Trends - The report highlights the growing demand for environmentally friendly recycled plastics, emphasizing the importance of stable supply chains and technical barriers in maintaining competitive advantage [3][5] - The modified plastics industry is expected to consolidate further, with the company expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, set to come online by December 2024 [6]

Group 1: Regulatory Frameworks - The United States adopts a strict "categorical regulation" model for digital finance, integrating it into existing regulatory frameworks post the 2008 financial crisis[1] - The UK employs a "twin peaks" regulatory model, balancing innovation and prudence, and has established a regulatory sandbox to support fintech startups[1] - Singapore encourages independent innovation in digital finance, focusing on the development of digital currencies and maintaining a flexible regulatory environment[2] Group 2: Key Regulatory Developments - Following the 2008 financial crisis, the US established the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) to enhance systemic risk regulation and consumer protection[7] - The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) created the regulatory sandbox in 2015, which has helped London become a global leader in cryptocurrency, scoring 458.5 in 2022[11] - Singapore's ICO market has raised over $1 billion, making it the second-largest market globally after the US, due to supportive government policies[18]

证券 – 亚洲研究 海通国际全球能源策略 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|----------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | Scott Darling | ， scott.darling@htisec.com | | | Catherine Li ， | catherine.dy.li@htisec.com | | | | 2024 年 9 月 12 日 | | | （本报告为 2024 年 9 月 11 | 日发布的英文报告的翻译版，以原稿为准） | | 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券 研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请 参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the discla ...