[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/化工/基础化工材料制品 证券研究报告 行业专题报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 新材料专题研究（8）—2024H1 中报总结： 下游需求回暖，高端新材料加速发展 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 半导体材料受益下游需求回暖及加速实现进口替代，营业收入及净利润整体均 实现正增长。2024 年上半年公司实现营业收入平均同比增长率为 15.94%，归母 净利润平均同比增长率为 15.65%。从全球来看，2024 年上半年全球半导体行业 温和复苏，数据中心、人工智能的强劲需求带动 AI 服务器及存储芯片市场快速 发展，同时半导体下游终端如智能手机、电脑等消费电子需求转暖，全球集成 电路行业重回增长周期；从国内市场来看，2024 年上半年，中国半导体市场逐 渐复苏，行业已逐步去库存，主要晶圆厂商稼动率稳步提升。 OLED 材料受益于下游消费电子需求回暖及渗透率持续提升，LCD 材料业务逐步 恢复。2024 年上半年公司实现营业收入平均同比增长率为 12.12%，归母净利润 平均同比增长率为-83.26%。随着 OLED 在下游领域的应用不断扩大，市场规模 ...

Group 1: Global Energy Trends - International oilfield service activities are increasing, with a projected 10% year-on-year revenue growth in international markets for Halliburton in FY2024, while North America is expected to see a decline of 6-8%[1] - Schlumberger reported a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase in international revenue, driven by capacity expansion projects and investment recovery, with offshore final investment decisions (FID) expected to exceed $100 billion in 2024[1] - The carbon capture and storage market is projected to grow at an annual rate exceeding 50%, indicating strong growth potential for companies involved in this sector[2] Group 2: Regional Insights - Halliburton expressed confidence in the Middle East market, highlighting significant oil capacity expansion plans in UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Libya, which are driving increased activity[2] - The North American natural gas sector is anticipated to see discussions around its direction, with infrastructure developments making it easier to lay pipelines and data lines[2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global LNG supply-demand analysis indicates a structural supply shortage may arise by 2030, necessitating an additional 20-70 million tons per year, which is about 5-15% of current global LNG capacity[19] - The refining sector is facing limited profit upside due to high oil prices and new refining capacities, with projected refining margins for 2024 at $7.0 per barrel, slightly down from $7.1[23] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - A cautious stance is recommended for global energy stocks, with expectations of limited earnings growth this year, suggesting a reduction in energy stock holdings[17] - Preference is given to U.S. renewable energy companies over European and Chinese counterparts, driven by recovering solar demand and favorable legislative impacts[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for CK Infrastructure Holdings [3][12]. Core Insights - The company completed its secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange and is accelerating its M&A activities, including the acquisition of Phoenix Energy and several renewable energy assets [11][12]. - The first half of 2024 saw a profit of HK$4.577 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.46%, with significant contributions from joint ventures [9][10]. - The target price has been raised to HK$61.37, reflecting a PE ratio of 19 times for 2024, based on expected net profits of HK$8.458 billion, HK$8.764 billion, and HK$8.825 billion for 2024-2026 [12]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at HK$7.537 billion, with a slight increase of 2% compared to the previous year [4][8]. - Net profit is expected to grow from HK$8.027 billion in 2023 to HK$8.458 billion in 2024, representing a 5% increase [4][8]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is forecasted to remain stable around 88.8% for 2024 [4][8]. Segment Performance - The UK segment reported a profit of HK$1.865 billion, up 17% year-on-year, driven by lower financing costs [10]. - The Canadian segment experienced a profit decline of 25% to HK$301 million due to falling electricity prices [10]. - The Australian segment's profit increased by 5% to HK$864 million, while the New Zealand segment rose by 11% to HK$80 million [10]. M&A Activities - The company has accelerated its M&A activities, including the acquisition of a solar power station and multiple wind farm assets in the UK, with an estimated investment of HK$3.5 billion [11][12]. - The acquisition of Phoenix Energy, Northern Ireland's largest gas distribution network, was completed at a valuation of HK$7.4 billion [11].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The consumer electronics industry is entering a mature phase, exhibiting both cyclical and growth attributes, with market demand influenced by global economic cycles and growth driven by technological innovations[1] - The global smartphone market is projected to reach approximately $500 billion in 2024, while the global PC market is estimated at around $200 billion[4][9] - Historical data shows that global smartphone shipments grew from under 10 million units in 2003 to 1.4 billion units in 2015, but growth has since slowed, stabilizing around 1.3 billion units[8] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The A-share electronic sector often experiences significant excess returns when fundamental indicators improve, particularly during semiconductor cycle recoveries[20] - From 2019 onwards, the domestic semiconductor industry has seen substantial excess returns, driven by the trend of domestic substitution amid external disruptions[20] - In the 2016-2017 recovery cycle, the A-share electronic sector index saw a maximum increase of 67%, with the consumer electronics segment rising by 92%[20] Group 3: AI Technology Impact - The development of AI technology is expected to significantly influence consumer electronics demand, particularly through AI-enabled products like smartphones and AIPC (AI PCs)[2][27] - The market anticipates that AI smartphones will capture over 40% of the global smartphone shipment market by 2027, with an estimated 1.5 billion units in China alone[29] - AIPC is projected to account for 95% of global notebook shipments by 2029, indicating a rapid growth trajectory for AI-integrated personal computers[30]

[Table_MainInfo] Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 宏观快报点评 2024-09-12 核心通胀平稳 ——美国 2024 年 8 月物价数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 美国核心通胀未能延续缓解。8 月美国 CPI 同比为 2.5%，较 7 月下行 0.4 个百分点；但核心 CPI 同比为 3.2%，与 7 月持平。此外，8 月核心 CPI 季 调环比以及季调环比折年率都有所回升。 从结构来看，8 月整体通胀的缓解很大程度上与能源价格缓解有关。二手 车价格下行的贡献有所减弱；租金通胀表现分化，租金外核心通胀环比也 有所回升，对核心通胀缓解的贡献也有所下降。 总的来说，美国 8 月就业数据和通胀数据表现较为平淡，未能进一步提振 降息预期。 市场降息预期大体稳定。根据 CME 观察显示，截至 9 月 11 日，市场预期 美联储大概率降息时点为 9 月，不过降息幅度为 50BP 的概率较通胀数据 公布前有所下降，市场预期大概率在 9 月降息 25BP。全年降息预期在 100BP 附近。 风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期。 宏观研究 证券研究报告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Power Assets Holdings [3][12]. Core Views - The performance in the first half of 2024 was in line with expectations, with a profit of HK$3.006 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2% [9][12]. - The UK segment showed strong growth, with profits of HK$1.55 billion, up 10.87% year-on-year, primarily due to lower financing costs from inflation-linked debts [10][11]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of HK$0.78 per share, unchanged from the previous year [9][12]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be HK$1.371 billion, with a net profit forecast of HK$6.176 billion [4][12]. - The diluted EPS is expected to increase from HK$2.82 in 2023 to HK$2.90 in 2024 [4][8]. - The company’s gross margin remains stable at 100% across the forecast period [8]. Business Segments - The UK segment's profitability is attributed to companies like UK Power Network and Northern Gas Networks benefiting from reduced financing costs [10]. - The Australian segment reported a profit of HK$601 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [10]. - The Canadian segment experienced a significant decline in revenue due to falling electricity prices [10][11]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The company has expanded its business segments through multiple mergers and acquisitions, including the acquisition of Phoenix Energy in Northern Ireland for HK$7.4 billion [11][12]. - UKPN acquired a 69MW solar power station, and the company plans to jointly acquire 32 wind farm assets in the UK with an estimated investment of HK$3.5 billion [11][12]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price is updated to HK$52.04, corresponding to a 16 times PE ratio for 2024 [12].

Export Data - In August 2024, China's total export value increased by 8.7% year-on-year, up from 7.0% in July[1] - The trade surplus expanded to $91.02 billion in August 2024[1] - Exports to the EU grew by 11.8%, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall export growth[7] Import Data - In August 2024, China's total import value increased by only 0.5% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in July[1] - Imports from the US increased by 12.2%, contributing 0.8 percentage points to overall import growth[12] - The annualized import growth rate for August, excluding base effects, was -3.4%[12] Product Contributions - Mechanical and high-tech products were the main contributors to export growth, with mechanical exports rising by 11.9% and contributing 7.1 percentage points[9] - Integrated circuits showed the best performance in imports, with an 11.1% increase, contributing 1.5 percentage points to overall imports[14] - Most exported products saw positive quantity growth, while price growth remained a drag on overall export performance[10]

Core Viewpoints - The report maintains an **Outperform** rating for International Petroleum Development (1605 JP), highlighting the company's solid outlook following its investor day, particularly focusing on its LNG projects and renewable energy strategy [2] - The Ichthys LNG project is expected to resume full production by November 2024, with ongoing assessments for the potential development of a third train by 2030 [2] - The Abadi LNG project is progressing, with a targeted internal rate of return (IRR) of around 15%, and a final investment decision (FID) expected in 2026/27 [2] - The company is advancing its renewable energy strategy, including hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects, with pilot projects set to commence in Japan by 2025 [2] Ichthys LNG Project - The Ichthys LNG project experienced unplanned maintenance during the summer of 2024, with the second train operating at only 50% capacity due to a gas leak [2] - Current operational capacity is at 70%, with plans to inspect the first train for potential gas leaks and achieve full production by November 2024 [2] - The company is evaluating the development of a third train, with exploration drilling expected to be completed by the end of 2024 [2] - Potential oil resource rent tax impacts around 2026 are being considered, and negotiations with unions are ongoing [2] Abadi LNG Project - The Abadi LNG project is targeting an IRR of around 15%, with a production capacity of 9.5 million tons/year of LNG and 150 million standard cubic feet/day of pipeline gas [2] - The final investment decision (FID) is expected in 2026/27, following front-end engineering design (FEED) activities [2] - The company is in discussions with potential buyers, with positive feedback received so far [2] Renewable Energy Strategy - The company is advancing its renewable energy projects, including hydrogen and CCUS initiatives, with a target of 2.5 million tons/year of CO2 injection, 60,000 tons/year of synthetic methane, and 100,000 tons/year of green hydrogen [2] - Pilot projects for synthetic methane and blue ammonia/hydrogen are set to commence in Japan by 2025 [2] - The company aims to allocate 20% of its growth investments to low-carbon projects by 2030, with a target of investing up to 1 trillion yen in five net-zero projects [2] Financial and Operational Highlights - The company did not provide specific financial guidance for FY2024, including revenue, operating profit, net profit, or dividend expectations [2] - No mention was made of the FY2024 share buyback guidance of 130 billion yen [2] Exploration and Development Activities - The company has completed drilling for the Cash Maple gas condensate field, with plans to begin production in the 2030s [5] - Two exploration wells near the Ichthys project were unsuccessful, but the company has acquired the AC/P71 exploration block adjacent to the Cash Maple project [5] - The company is pursuing economically efficient backfill opportunities for the Ichthys LNG project [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Jinxin Fertility (1951 HK) with a target price of HKD 3.69, down 31% from previous estimates [3][10]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 24H1 was CNY 1.44 billion, reflecting an 8.2% increase, while net profit decreased by 15.0% to CNY 190 million, primarily due to increased equity incentive amortization [6][9]. - The overseas business is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the U.S., where the company plans to recruit at least five new doctors in 2024 [6][10]. - The inclusion of assisted reproductive services in medical insurance is expected to significantly reduce the financial burden on residents, potentially boosting the company's performance [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 24H1 was CNY 1.44 billion (+8.2%), with a net profit of CNY 190 million (-15.0%). Non-GAAP adjusted net profit was CNY 260 million (+1.8%) [6][7]. - Revenue by business segment includes: - Assisted reproductive services: CNY 780 million (+9.6%) - Management services: CNY 290 million (+1.2%) - Gynecology and pediatric services: CNY 200 million (+6.8%) - Obstetric services: CNY 120 million (+14.1%) - Sales of consumables and equipment: CNY 60.274 million (+22.4%) [7][8]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 24H1 was 40.4% (-1.9 percentage points), with a sales expense ratio of 6.0% (-0.6 percentage points) and a management expense ratio of 14.9% (+0.8 percentage points) [8][9]. - The decline in gross margin is attributed to increased labor costs from recruiting new doctors in the U.S. [8]. Market Outlook - The Chinese assisted reproductive market is expected to grow due to an increase in older pregnant women and supportive government policies [10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are CNY 3.07 billion and CNY 3.48 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 10.0% and 13.5% respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][8][13] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 13.5% in the first half of 2024, with significant contributions from recycled products [2][10] - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was reported at 94.9%, with a net profit margin of 67.7%, reflecting improved efficiency in sales and management expenses [11][12] - The company has a robust pipeline of products under development, including various medical and aesthetic solutions, which are expected to drive future growth [12][13] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.66 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 1.12 billion yuan, marking a 16.4% increase [11][12] - The projected revenues for 2024 and 2025 are estimated at 3.50 billion yuan and 4.36 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.9% and 24.6% [13] - The net profit for 2024 and 2025 is expected to be 2.29 billion yuan and 2.88 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 23.4% and 23.6% [13] Market Position and Valuation - The company is recognized as an industry leader with strong brand and channel advantages, justifying a target price of HKD 341.34 per share based on a 36x PE for 2025 [13] - The current market capitalization is approximately 41.03 billion yuan (5.77 billion USD) [3][8] Product Development - The company is advancing several key products, including Type A botulinum toxin and modified hyaluronic acid gel, which are in various stages of regulatory approval [12][13] - The investment in the "Beautiful Health Industrialization Innovation Construction Project" aims to enhance production capacity and product offerings [11][12]