[Table_MainInfo] Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观快报点评 2024-09-10 CPI 回升：食品扰动较大 ——8 月物价数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 2024 年 9 月 9 日，国家统计局公布 2024 年 8 月物价数据，CPI 同比上涨 0.6%， PPI 同比下降 1.8%，较前一月降幅扩大。 8 月 CPI 同比主要受到食品价格的支撑，除了食品以外的各分项表现均较为 平淡。而食品涨价主要受极端天气影响，可持续性不强。PPI 方面，地产基 建链条上的黑色系商品和非金属建材价格持续低迷，叠加海外"衰退交易"升 温带动能化金属价格普遍走弱，共同对 8 月工业品价格形成拖累。 近期消费促进政策正在加码，尤其是消费品以旧换新的实施方案已在多城出 台落地。如果存量房贷利率迎来二次下调，同样有助于释放居民消费潜力。 不过我们认为，当前的政策对价格的拉动作用还有待进一步观察，实体部门 的中长期预期修复可能还需依赖更多政策的实施。 风险提示：房地产走势；外部环境的不确定性。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法 ...

Economic Overview - Vietnam's GDP reached $419.7 billion in 2023, accounting for 11% of ASEAN's total economy[3] - The country has maintained a high GDP growth rate, with a CAGR of 8.7% over the past 30 years, and is projected to grow at 5.8% in 2024[3] - The industrial sector's contribution to GDP has increased from 18.8% in 2005 to 24.8% in 2022, with manufacturing as a core component[5] Consumption Trends - Total consumer spending in Vietnam grew from $136.7 billion in 2015 to $218.7 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 6.1%[13] - Household consumption accounts for approximately 85-86% of total consumption, significantly higher than China's 70%[13] - The share of essential consumption is higher than discretionary spending, with food and non-alcoholic beverages making up about 31% of household expenditures in 2023[19] Demographic Insights - Vietnam's population reached 100.3 million in 2023, with a median age of 34 years, indicating a young demographic profile[23] - The proportion of the population aged 20-34 years is 23%, which is favorable for economic growth[23] - The total fertility rate is declining, projected to reach 1.96 in 2023, raising concerns about future aging[23] Income and Spending Power - Per capita disposable income increased from $1,594 in 2015 to $2,566 in 2023, with a CAGR of 6.1%[17] - The average consumer spending per capita rose from $1,483 to $2,212 during the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 5.1%[17] - Despite lower absolute income levels compared to other ASEAN countries, Vietnam's growth rate in disposable income is the highest in the region[17] Market Opportunities - The retail market in Vietnam is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2023 to 2028, reaching $126.3 billion[1] - E-commerce is rapidly expanding, with significant growth in online shopping driven by younger consumers seeking value[29] - The healthcare sector is experiencing growth, with private healthcare facilities increasing from 102 in 2010 to over 300 by 2021[28]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 9 Sep 2024 博思格钢铁 BlueScope Steel (BSL AU) 东南亚市场利润率显著提高，转型高端产品+控制成本 Significant Improvement in South East Asia Market Margins, Transformation to High-end Products + Cost Control 吴旖婕 Yijie Wu 王曼琪 Manqi Wang lisa.yj.wu@htisec.com mq.wang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 澳大利亚龙头钢铁生产商 BlueScope 是一家钢铁制造和加工公司，拥有卓越的资产和钢铁生产、涂层制造、建筑解决能力，业务组合多样化。 公司在北美、澳大利亚、新西兰、太平洋岛屿和亚洲都有业务分布，主要为建筑行业提供服务。BlueScope 涉及上 游、中游、下游三大业务 ...

研究报告 Research Report 9 Sep 2024 海吉亚 Hygeia Healthcare (6078 HK) 外延医院并表增厚业绩，内生收入和利润增长承压 Acquired Hospitals Boosted Earnings, whilst Organic Business Under Pressure [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM | | | 评级 | 优于大市 OUTPERFORM | | 现价 | HK$16.00 | | 目标价 | HK$35.17 | | HTI ESG | 4.0-5.0-5.0 | | E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) | | | 市值 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/公用事业 证券研究报告 龙源电力（001289）公司半年报点评 Jie Wu j.wu@htisec.com Yifan Fu yf.fu@htisec.com Haofei Chen haofei.chen@htisec.com [Table_InvestInfo]风电业绩承压，资产整合推进 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 公司 发 布 24 年 半年报： 24H1 实 现营收 /归母净 利 189/38.3 亿元， YOY-4.9%/-22.9%。Q2 实现营收/归母净利 90/14.3 亿元，YOY-10%/-45.4%。 资源扰动，风电量价承压。测算公司 24H1 度电净利 0.098 元，同比-0.031 元。 （1）电价：24H1 风电平均电价 0.441 元/度，同比-0.028 元/度；光伏平均电 价 0.283 元/度，同比-0.031 元/度，主要仍系市场电比例、平价项目增加所致； 火电电价（位于江苏）0.415 元/度，同比持平。（2）利用小时：测算公司 24H1 度电折旧 0.133 元，同比+0.006 元，主要系风资源影响，2 ...

研究报告 Research Report 6 Sep 2024 东方电气 Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) 毛利率阶段性承压，订单保持高增 GPM under Pressure Temporarily, Orders Maintain High Growth [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | | | | [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM | | | 评级 | 优于大市 OUTPERFORM | | 现价 | HK$8.26 | | 目标价 | HK$11.24 | | HTI ESG | 3.3-2.0-3.5 | | E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) | | | 市值 | HK$42.93bn ...

研究报告 Research Report 8 Sep 2024 中国海洋石油 China National Offshore Oil Corporation (883 HK) 上半年净利润同比增长 25% [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------| | 1H24 net income up 25% y/y [Table_Info] 首次覆盖优于大市 | Initiate with OUTPERFORM | | 评级 | 优于大市 OUTPERFORM | | 现价 | HK$19.84 | | 目标价 | HK$24.19 | | HTI ESG | 5.0-5.0-5.0 | | E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) | | | 市值 | HK$966.93bn / US$124. ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (386 HK) at a current price of HK$4.65 and a target price of HK$6.09 [2][19]. Core Insights - The company aims to enhance identification and promote enterprise valuation through share buy-backs and high dividend yields, with a planned annual cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% over the next three years [4][24]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 1,576.1 billion, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 35.7 billion, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year [4][24]. - The exploration and production segment benefited from rising oil prices, with Brent crude averaging USD 83.42 per barrel, up 4.38% year-on-year, and a 2.97% increase in oil and gas equivalent production [4][9]. - The refining segment saw a revenue increase of 2.8% year-on-year but a significant profit decline of 37.6% [12]. - The chemical segment reported a revenue increase of 5.3% year-on-year but incurred an operating loss of RMB 3.164 billion, indicating ongoing challenges in this area [15][17]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 3,218.0 billion, RMB 3,298.7 billion, and RMB 3,331.7 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB 72.7 billion, RMB 74.4 billion, and RMB 76.5 billion [3][19]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be RMB 0.60, RMB 0.61, and RMB 0.62 for 2024-2026 [19]. Business Segment Performance - The exploration and production segment's operating profit increased by 14.7% year-on-year, driven by higher oil prices and production levels [9][10]. - The refining segment's operating income was RMB 749.67 billion, but profits fell due to decreased margins on diesel products [12][13]. - The chemical segment continues to struggle, with a reported loss and declining production of key products like ethylene [15][17]. Market Position and Valuation - The company has a market capitalization of HK$812.11 billion (approximately USD 104.16 billion) and a P/E ratio projected to decrease from 9 in 2024 to 7 in 2026 [2][19]. - The report suggests a reasonable valuation of HK$5.54 to HK$6.09 based on a P/B multiple of 0.8 times the 2024 BPS [19].

Economic Overview - Major global stock markets declined last week, with the Nikkei 225 index experiencing the largest drop of 5.8%[6] - The IPE Brent crude oil futures fell by 9.3%[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 19 basis points to 3.72%[6] - The U.S. dollar index dropped by 0.5% to 101.2[6] Employment and Inflation - In August, the U.S. added 142,000 non-farm jobs, but previous months' data were significantly revised downwards, with a three-month average of 116,000 jobs added[8] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%[8] - The 5-year inflation expectations fell by 15 basis points to 1.86%, while the 10-year expectations decreased by 12 basis points to 2.0%[9] Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September remain at 100%, with a 70% probability of a 25 basis point cut[9] - The anticipated total rate cut for the year has increased from 100 basis points to 125 basis points, with expectations of 50 basis points cuts in both November and December[12] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to cut rates in September, while the Bank of Japan may continue to raise rates[16] European Economic Indicators - In July, the Eurozone's retail sales index showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, a narrowing of the previous month's decline by 0.3 percentage points[14] - The Eurozone PPI year-on-year decline was -2.1%, an improvement of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[14]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 9 Sep 2024 香港美国其他金融服务 Hong Kong US Other Financial Services 虚拟资产周报：市场低迷运行中 Crypto Weekly: A Gloomy Week 周琦 Nicole Zhou, CFA nicole.q.zhou@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 涨跌幅回顾 9/02-9/06，BTC -9.7%，ETH -12.0%，SOL -10.9%。标普 500 -3.3%、纳斯达克综合指数-4.7%、上证综指-2.7%，恒生指 数-1.9%，黄金-0.2%。 重点关注事件 ETH 价格下跌原因及影响： - 链上活动自 3 月中的峰值减少。平均 gas 费自 2015 年发布以来降低到最低水平，源于 ETH 主网缺乏创新应 用，研发者和用户转移至更快成本更低的 Layer 2 网络，或者用户体验更好的其他 Lay ...