Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's government faces internal contradictions, including conflicts between establishment Republicans and MAGA supporters, which may hinder policy implementation[1] - The Republican majority in the House is slim, with only a 2-seat lead (217 to 215), making it vulnerable to defections that could block legislation[1] - The MAGA faction's interests conflict with those of tech elites like Elon Musk, complicating Trump's domestic policy execution[1] Group 2: Trade and Tariffs - Trump's proposed tariffs include a 10% additional tax on all imports from China and a 25% tax on goods from Mexico and Canada, affecting approximately 40% of U.S. imports[21] - The likelihood of significant upfront tariff increases on China is low due to inflation concerns and a more moderate stance from Treasury Secretary Bessent[21] - Targeted tariff increases may occur in phases, with potential implementation starting in early 2025 as leverage in trade negotiations[27] Group 3: Foreign Policy and Conflict - Trump's assertion that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could end within 24 hours lacks a clear strategy, and Russia has rejected proposed peace agreements[32] - Geopolitical interests, such as NATO expansion and control over the Black Sea, complicate the feasibility of a quick ceasefire[33] Group 4: Energy Production - U.S. oil production may not see significant increases due to cautious attitudes from producers and high marginal costs, with breakeven prices around $70 per barrel for new production[2] - Despite potential policy incentives, the actual growth in U.S. oil output is expected to be limited by supply-demand dynamics and cost structures[2] Group 5: Immigration Policy - Large-scale deportation of illegal immigrants faces significant challenges, including high costs estimated at $88 billion annually for deporting 1 million individuals[2] - Historical data shows that the average annual deportation rate since 2000 is about 289,000, indicating that Trump's ambitious targets may be unrealistic[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the light industry sector [1]. Core Insights - The paper industry is experiencing a bottom recovery in its economic cycle, with a focus on downstream demand performance [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing price pressures in the pulp and paper sector, with a slight recovery in waste paper demand [3]. - The report suggests that the central government's proactive stance may lead to continued policy support for economic and domestic demand, positively impacting the paper industry [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Raw Materials - Pulp prices are rebounding, while waste paper prices have slightly retreated. As of January 8, 2025, the prices for ARAUCO needle pulp and broadleaf pulp were $795 and $570 per ton, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +4.61% and -12.31% [8][19]. - The average price of waste yellow board paper was 1,570 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of -0.57% [41]. 2. Cultural Paper - Continuous price increases are observed, with double-glue paper and double-copper paper averaging 5,413 yuan and 5,530 yuan per ton, respectively, as of January 8, 2025 [51]. - The report notes that the price trends are supported by strong pricing intentions from paper mills and a reduction in inventory levels due to increased orders from the publishing sector [51]. 3. Packaging Paper - White card paper prices have stabilized due to supply reductions, with an average price of 4,300 yuan per ton as of January 8, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of -10.04% [76]. - The report indicates that the consumption of white card paper from January to November 2024 totaled 742.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of +2.77% [80]. 4. Living Paper - The average price of living paper was stable, with local paper companies in Shandong facing production cuts, while competition in Hebei kept prices under pressure [41]. - The report emphasizes that the overall demand for living paper remains relatively weak, with significant competition affecting pricing [41]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pulp and paper sector, such as Sun Paper, Yueyang Forest Paper, and Hengan International, among others [1].

Monetary Policy Actions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will issue 600 billion RMB in central bank bills on January 15, 2025, the largest issuance to date[2] - This issuance represents approximately 43% of the existing offshore RMB central bank bills, which total 1,400 billion RMB[13] - The issuance also accounts for about 13.6% of the offshore RMB demand deposits and savings in Hong Kong, which amount to 4,410 billion RMB[13] Market Impact - The recent issuance is expected to tighten offshore RMB liquidity, with the CNH HIBOR overnight rate reaching 8.1% and 7.82% on January 7 and 8, 2025, respectively, the highest since July 2021[13] - The offshore RMB liquidity has been tight since mid-December 2024, with the CNH HIBOR fluctuating around 4%[13] Exchange Rate Stability - The PBOC aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate stability at a reasonable and balanced level, despite potential external shocks from new U.S. tariffs[26] - The current environment for the RMB is different from the 2018-2019 period, as the U.S. is now in a rate-cutting cycle, contrasting with the previous rate-hiking phase[32] Fiscal Policy Context - China's fiscal expansion is expected to begin earlier this time, with the government debt cost being lower than the economic growth rate, providing support for the exchange rate[34] - The nominal GDP growth rate is projected at 4.04%, exceeding the nominal interest rate of 2.17%, indicating a sustainable debt situation[35] Risks - Potential risks include misunderstanding of policy, unexpected monetary policy actions by the PBOC, and unforeseen U.S. tariff increases[41]

Macro - The report discusses the potential upward movement of the 10-year government bond yield if three unexpected factors occur: 1) Fiscal stimulus exceeds expectations; 2) Policies to stabilize the real estate market exceed expectations; 3) Structural reform policies exceed expectations [7][5][4] Military Industry - The military industry index has increased by 34% from its bottom, but the order inflection point has not yet appeared, leading to a potential continuation of a volatile market [21][25] - In the medium term, industry orders are expected to improve, and high prosperity in 2025 is anticipated, transitioning from strong expectations to strong realities [21][25] - Long-term prospects include the upcoming centenary of the military in 2027, which is expected to sustain high prosperity, along with expectations of mergers and acquisitions [21][25] Computer Industry - The report highlights the entry of domestic large models into the acceptance phase, marking a new era for edge AI [27][32] - Major domestic tech companies are significantly investing in AI, with ByteDance's model achieving substantial user growth and Xiaomi building a large GPU cluster for AI development [28][30] Media Industry - The report notes a decline in December box office revenues but anticipates a recovery with 28 key films expected to be released in January [34][38] - The gaming market reached a record high in 2024, with significant growth in self-developed games overseas [36][38] Nonferrous Metals - The report indicates that domestic policies are expected to boost the nonferrous metals industry, with a focus on counter-cyclical adjustments and increased fiscal and monetary support [40][41] - The anticipated increase in domestic demand for nonferrous metals is linked to improvements in downstream sectors such as real estate and construction [42][43] REITs - The report outlines the growth of the REITs market in China, with a total issuance of 58 REITs amounting to 161.1 billion yuan, primarily in industrial parks and highways [11][12] - The investor structure is dominated by strategic investors, with institutional investors playing a significant role [12][13] - The report suggests a positive outlook for REITs, particularly in the real estate and consumer sectors, driven by policy support and stable income [16][15]

Group 1: Global Economic Context - The global economy is experiencing slow and turbulent recovery amid multiple risks, with GDP growth contributions from total factor productivity weakening[11] - The International Monetary Fund predicts world economic growth to be around 3.2% in 2025, indicating a low-speed trajectory with significant uncertainties[11] Group 2: New Quality Productivity Concept - The concept of "new quality productivity" was proposed in response to the challenges faced by the global economy and aims to enhance total factor productivity significantly[7] - The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of improving the resilience and security of industrial and supply chains as a core measure for developing new quality productivity[13] Group 3: Technological Revolution and Industrial Transformation - Historical technological revolutions have consistently driven changes in production capacity and global industrial layouts, with each revolution leading to the emergence of new production centers[17] - The current technological revolution is characterized by advancements in artificial intelligence, big data, and green technologies, which are reshaping production methods and global economic structures[12] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The rise of technology protectionism poses challenges to global industrial chains, potentially leading to blockages and imbalances[7] - Despite challenges, China possesses unique advantages, including a complete industrial system and increasing innovation capabilities, which can help seize opportunities in the transformation of global industrial chains[14] Group 5: Strategic Directions for Development - Future efforts should focus on optimizing global layouts in key sectors, enhancing supply chain resilience, and driving innovation to elevate China's position in the global value chain[7] - It is crucial to address potential risks related to digital, green, and economic challenges while navigating the transformation brought by technological advancements[7]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - December CPI remained flat month-on-month (previous value -0.6%), with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% (previous value 0.2%), consistent with expectations[1] - Food prices fell by 0.6% month-on-month (previous value -2.7%), while non-food prices rose by 0.1% (previous value -0.1%), leading to a continued decline in year-on-year CPI due to seasonal food price drops[1] - Core CPI rose by 0.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: Price Influences - Vegetable and pork prices dropped significantly, with fresh vegetables down 2.4%, pork down 2.1%, and fresh fruits down 1.0%, collectively impacting CPI by approximately 0.1 percentage points[1] - Non-food prices shifted from a decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.1% month-on-month, influenced by seasonal travel demand around the New Year holiday, contributing approximately 0.12 percentage points to CPI[1] - Communication tools saw a month-on-month increase of 3%, driven by new product launches, particularly the Huawei Mate70 series[1] Group 3: PPI Trends - December PPI turned negative at -0.1% month-on-month (previous value 0.1%), with a year-on-year decline of 2.3% (previous value -2.5%), primarily due to seasonal production slowdowns[2] - Durable consumer goods prices fell significantly, with automotive manufacturing down 0.5% month-on-month[2] - Energy prices showed mixed results, with gas production and supply prices up 1.2% and electricity prices up 0.9% due to seasonal demand increases[2] Group 4: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, with an average growth rate of around 0.5% in 2025, supported by improving tail effects[2] - PPI's year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow, with an expected average growth rate of -1.1% in 2025, driven by policy measures and improved industrial demand[2] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and weaker-than-expected consumer confidence recovery[2]

Key Insights - The overall production sector is experiencing a decline, while the real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with key indicators moving into positive territory [2][3] - The bond market is witnessing a decrease in issuance, with a notable drop in both government and local bonds, while secondary market interest rates are trending downward [4][3] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments, with anticipated interest rate cuts and increased credit growth [8][11] Economic Indicators - Production-related data shows a comprehensive decline, with PTA load rates dropping by 2.37 percentage points to 84.16%, and high furnace operating rates decreasing by 0.61 percentage points to 78.08% [2] - Real estate indicators are improving, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increasing by 65.45% year-on-year, and land transaction area in 100 major cities rising by 31.76% [2] - Consumer demand is recovering post-holiday, with passenger car sales still showing a positive year-on-year growth of 4.39%, although the growth rate is narrowing [2] Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector's performance is slightly better than the market, with the banking index down 2.75% compared to a 5.17% drop in the broader market [7] - The central bank's monetary policy is shifting towards a more accommodative stance, with potential rate cuts and increased credit issuance expected to support the banking sector [8][9] - The banking sector's price-to-book ratio stands at 0.64, with a dividend yield of 4.92%, indicating attractive valuation levels [7][10] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, recommending specific banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Postal Savings Bank of China [11] - The anticipated issuance of long-term special bonds to support infrastructure and consumption is expected to further stimulate credit demand in the banking sector [9][10] Fund Performance - The performance of quantitative funds shows that the CSI 500 index-enhanced funds have outperformed, with a median excess return of 1.29% [15] - Other fund categories, such as absolute return funds, have shown mixed results, with some experiencing negative returns [15] Sector Performance Tracking - The best-performing sectors in the research tracking include retail, banking, and new energy, while sectors like construction and telecommunications have underperformed significantly [20] - The overall performance of the research portfolio has weakened, with a reported return of -8.1% for the week [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its attractive configuration value [7]. Core Views - The banking sector is expected to benefit from enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments, with anticipated reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, leading to increased credit growth [6][13]. - The report emphasizes the appeal of high-dividend bank stocks, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, as insurance capital continues to flow into these assets [2][19]. - The report forecasts that credit growth in 2025 will likely outperform that of 2024, driven by supportive monetary and fiscal policies [6][15]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement a more accommodative monetary policy, with potential rate cuts and increased credit supply [13]. - The real estate sector is being targeted for revitalization, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and improving asset quality for banks [14]. - Structural monetary policy tools will focus on supporting consumption and key investment areas, particularly small and micro enterprises [15][16]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector outperformed the broader market, with a decline of 2.75% compared to a 5.17% drop in the CSI 300 index [20]. - Among various bank types, state-owned banks fell by 3.03%, while joint-stock banks decreased by 2.42% [20]. Valuation and Company Analysis - As of January 3, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.64, indicating a 42.67% discount compared to the overall A-share market [33]. - The sector's dividend yield is reported at 4.92%, ranking second among all industries [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific banks for investment, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Changshu Bank (601128) [7][46].

研究院 2025 年 1 月 8 日 2025 年第 01 期（总第 572 期） 中银研究产品系列 作 者：李金珂 养老金融中心 刘 棣 养老金融中心 电 话：010 – 8326 7612 签发人：陈卫东 审稿人：周景彤 梁 婧 联系人：刘佩忠 电 话：010 – 6659 6623 ＊ 对外公开 ＊＊ 全辖传阅 ＊＊＊ 内参材料 促进我国养老金"长钱长投" 的思考和建议＊ 发展养老金融是促进中国特色金融和养老事业 高质量发展良性循环的关键着力点。2024 年 9 月 26 日，中央政治局会议指出，"要努力提振资本市 场，大力引导中长期资金入市，打通社保、保险、 理财等资金入市堵点。"本文通过阐述我国养老保 险体系现状、剖析我国养老金入市堵点，进而提出 促进我国养老金"长钱长投"的建议，以期协助监 管部门完善我国多层次多支柱养老保险体系建设， 推动养老金入市积极性、长期性，助力稳经济、稳 市场、稳预期。 伦敦经济月刊（2013 年 1 月） 2013 年 1 月 18 日 第一支柱是国家主导的基本养老保险，包括城镇职工基本养老保险和城乡居民基 本养老保险，是我国养老保险体系的主体部分，参与具有强制性，起到 ...

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