Group 1: Economic Overview - As of August 2, 2024, 30 provinces reported retail sales data, with Beijing and Shanghai showing negative growth, raising market concerns[1] - Retail sales growth in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Hainan turned negative in the first half of 2024, with declines of -0.3%, -2.3%, -2.1%, and -6.2% respectively compared to 2023[6] - The overall national retail sales totaled 23.6 trillion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7%[6] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The food manufacturing sector in Beijing experienced a revenue decline of -6.1%, indicating significant challenges in the food and beverage industry[2] - Consumption in the categories of food and clothing has been a major constraint, with Beijing's food category showing a growth rate of -1.7%[11] - Ningxia and Fujian saw significant retail sales growth, with Ningxia's growth turning positive at 1.3% from -1.2% in 2023, largely driven by tourism[8] Group 3: Policy Response - A 300 billion yuan special long-term bond is expected to boost final consumption expenditure by approximately 0.74%[3] - The government is focusing on enhancing service consumption, particularly in the restaurant sector, to stimulate short-term recovery[17] - Long-term strategies include improving income distribution and wealth accumulation mechanisms to enhance consumer spending expectations[19] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include insufficient policy support and slower-than-expected economic recovery, which could hinder retail sales growth[20] - The execution of policies may face delays due to the cyclical nature of consumption and economic conditions[20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the overall allocation opportunities in the industry have emerged positively, supported by three main reasons: gradual recovery of fundamentals, clear growth expectations in AR/VR and AIGC sectors, and policy support for the digital economy and cultural industries [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Core Views, Investment Strategies, and Stock Portfolio - Recommended investment portfolio includes Tencent Holdings, NetEase, Meituan, Bilibili, Kuaishou, Baidu Group, and others [5] - Investment themes focus on mergers and acquisitions, gaming, AI and VR, education, short dramas, film and animation, and advertising [5] - Beneficiary stocks include major companies in both Hong Kong and A-share markets, such as Tencent, NetEase, and others [5] 1.2 Key Event Commentary - 1.2.1 The State Council issued opinions on promoting high-quality service consumption, outlining 20 key tasks across six areas, including cultural tourism and digital economy consumption [6] - 1.2.2 The National Press and Publication Administration approved 15 imported game titles in the fourth batch for 2024, totaling 75 for the year [8] 2. Market Performance Analysis and Data Tracking - The media industry index (SW) increased by 1.92% over the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.73% [9] - The latest PE for the media industry index is 25.54, compared to a five-year average of 35.31, indicating a potential undervaluation [15] 2.3 Key Announcements Review - Recent collaborations and developments in the media sector include partnerships aimed at enhancing technology and cultural services [18][19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Viewpoints - Government land acquisition is expected to accelerate, and new urbanization construction is likely to release potential demand [2][6] - The report highlights the importance of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and emphasizes the combination of stock digestion and incremental optimization [6] Market Review - From July 29 to August 2, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.73%. The real estate sector increased by 1.32%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 0.82 percentage points and the CSI 300 by 2.05 percentage points [4] - Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index has decreased by 2.34%, the CSI 300 Index by 1.36%, and the real estate sector has dropped by 20.63%, underperforming both indices by 18.29 and 19.26 percentage points respectively [4] Data Tracking - The cumulative year-on-year decline in residential land transactions across 100 major cities has widened to -36.66%, with first-tier cities experiencing a -53.30% decline [5][21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales across 30 major cities has narrowed to -34.92%, with first-tier cities at -28.08% and second-tier cities at -38.11% [5][29] Industry Dynamics - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for new policies to promote stable and healthy development in the real estate market, focusing on stock digestion and incremental optimization [6] - The State Council issued a notification on implementing a five-year action plan for a people-centered new urbanization strategy, aiming to increase the urbanization rate of the resident population to nearly 70% [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brand real estate companies with quality land reserves in core urban areas, such as Greentown China, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land [6] - It also recommends attention to companies involved in regional land acquisition and inventory reduction, as well as leading service-oriented businesses like Beike-W and Greentown Services [6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 吉电股份(000875.SZ) 2024 年 08 月 05 日 增持（维持） 所属行业：公用事业/电力 当前价格(元)：5.03 证券分析师 郭雪 资格编号：S0120522120001 邮箱：guoxue＠tebon.com.cn 联系人 刘正 邮箱：liuzheng3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -46% -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 吉电股份 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------|--------|-------| | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -5.09 | -15.75 | 6.12 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | -3.31 | -9.35 | 12.22 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《吉电股份（000875.SZ）：业绩快速 增长，24Q1 归母净利润超 ...

0 证券研究报告 | 行业深度 农用机械 优于大市(首次) 2024年8月5日 粮食安全是'国之大者',关注农机正当时 证券分析师 姓名：何思源 资格编号：S0120522100004 邮箱：hesy＠tebon.com.cn 目 录 CONTENTS 01 为什么关注农机 02 农机行业发展状况 03 高价值量产品介绍 04 投资建议 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。 1 01 为什么关注农机 核心观点： • 人口结构老龄化叠加农村/全国劳动力人口减少，需要更深度的农业机械化来帮助第一 产业进行高效、科学粮食生产，以保障国民的粮食安全。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。 2 城镇人口比例 自建国以来，我国历次人口普查城镇人口比例逐年上升，城镇化高速发展带动经济腾飞的同时，也让农村人口比例逐年下 滑。 自2000年开始，我国乡村人口绝对值也出现了明显下滑，第七次人口普查时，乡村人口所占比例已低于40%。 63.89% 70% 60% 49.68% 50% 36.22% 40% 26.44% 30% 18.30% 20.91% 20% 13.26% 10% 0% 1953年 1964年 1982 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 轻工制造 2024 年 08 月 05 日 轻工制造 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 毕先磊 资格编号：S0120524030001 邮箱：bixl3＠tebon.com.cn 宋姝旺 资格编号：S0120524060004 邮箱：songsw＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 李陌凡 邮箱：limf3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 轻工制造 沪深300 -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《宠物行业深度报告系列（一）- 以日本"失去的三十年"为鉴，看 中国宠物食品行业增长潜能》， 2024.7.25 2.《轻工制造基金重仓跟踪：24Q2 持仓处于相对低位，把握细分板块 配置拐点》，2024.7.24 3.《周观点：短期关注中报超预 期，6 月摩托车内销大排量、外销 持续景气》，2024.7.22 4.《周观点：关注估值底部优质消 费龙头，安踏、特步 24Q2 销售状 况良好》，2024.7.15 周观点：菲莫国际 IQOS 市占率快 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观周报 2024 年 08 月 05 日 | --- | --- | |------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | 宏观周报 | 本周看什么? 萨姆规则、京沪社零负增 \n-宏观周报（20240729-20240804） | | | | | 证券分析师 | | 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn ● 核心观点:本周聚焦四个方向,其一,各部委陆续召开会议传达学习三中全会精神, 重点关注加大开放、宏观政策取向一致、央国企作为科技引领角色等。其二,7月 美国失业率跳升 4.3%,触发了萨姆规则,美联储或将进行"衰退型降息"。其三, 上半年京沪社零数据缘何转负，吃穿袭是主要掣肘。 高频宏观数据:交通运输、煤炭钢铁、汽车和农林牧渔景气度提升,文旅消费和建 筑建材景气度待修复。 短期投资建议:债市当前情绪可能过度乐观。在本周多重逆周期维稳政策信号出现 后，债市仍选择更关注降息后的收益率下行空间打开,债市短期博弈围绕 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 机械设备 2024 年 08 月 05 日 机械设备 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 何思源 资格编号：S0120522100004 邮箱：hesy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 机械设备 沪深300 -37% -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 1.《机械行业周报：设备更新有望提 速，建议关注顺周期设备标的》， 2024.7.21 2.《机械行业周报：全球首款智能人 形采摘机器人问世》，2024.7.15 3.《机械行业周报：挖机内销数据持 续高增,关注工程机械板块行业修复 机会》，2024.7.9 4.《东睦股份（600114.SH）半年报 预告点评：业绩高速增长，SMC、 P&S 业务营收二季度创季度历史新 高》，2024.7.8 5.《工程机械：国内需求向好，电动 装载机渗透率提升》，2024.7.8 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 机械行业周报：英伟达本周连续发 声，人形机器人行业有望迎来加速发 展 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 市场表现： 7 月 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观周报 年 月 日 | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 宏观周报 | 本周看什么？萨姆规则、京沪社零负增 \n20240729-20240804 ） | | | | | 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 核心观点：本周聚焦四个方向，其一，各部委陆续召开会议传达学习三中全会精神， 重点关注加大开放、宏观政策取向一致、央国企作为科技引领角色等。其二，7 月 美国失业率跳升 4.3%，触发了萨姆规则，美联储或将进行"衰退型降息"。其三， 上半年京沪社零数据缘何转负，吃穿类是主要掣肘。 高频宏观数据：交通运输、煤炭钢铁、汽车和农林牧渔景气度提升，文旅消费和建 筑建材景气度待修复。 短期投资建议：债市当前情绪可能过度乐观。在本周多重逆周期维稳政策信号出现 后，债市仍选择更关注降息后的收益率下行空间打开，债市短期博弈围 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 医药生物 2024 年 08 月 04 日 医药生物 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号：S0120524060001 邮箱：zhouxm＠tebon.com.cn 吴明华 资格编号：S0120524050002 邮箱：wumh3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 医药生物 沪深300 -29% -24% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 数据来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《恩华药业（002262.SZ）：业绩 稳健，看好麻醉产品持续发力》， 2024.8.2 2.《仙琚制药（002332.SZ）：甾体 激素龙头全面升级，多重催化打造 第二增长曲线》，2024.8.1 3.《康缘药业（600557.SH）：短期 业 绩 承 压 ， 长 期 发 展 向 好 》， 2024.7.30 4.《医药行业周报： 医疗设备更新 逐步落地有望推动行业快速恢复》， 2024.7.28 5.《人福医药（600079.SH）：业绩 超预期，看好麻醉领域持续增长》， 2024.7. ...