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工业软件:质变,从国产化到全链路至规模化
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-18 03:07
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry, specifically focusing on industrial software transitioning from domestic production to full-scale implementation [1]. Core Insights - The development of industrial software in China is driven by domestic research and development, addressing the critical "bottleneck" issues and enhancing the overall localization rate [2][3]. - The industrial software sector is characterized by a high degree of fragmentation and specialization, with mergers and acquisitions playing a crucial role in forming a comprehensive product ecosystem [2][3]. - China's industrial software market is expected to grow significantly due to strong industrial policies and low current penetration rates, indicating substantial room for expansion [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industrial Software Development and Localization - Industrial software is essential for modern manufacturing, encapsulating industrial knowledge and technology [9]. - The sector faces significant challenges, particularly in high-end software development, with a notable gap in core technologies [12]. - From 2019 to 2023, the R&D expense ratio for listed industrial software companies in China increased, with a CAGR of 23.51%, indicating a growing emphasis on R&D [16][17]. 2. Mergers and Acquisitions in Industrial Software - Mergers and acquisitions are vital for enhancing competitive advantages in the industrial software sector, allowing companies to expand their capabilities and market share [25][26]. - Major global players like Dassault and Siemens have successfully utilized acquisitions to build comprehensive product lines and enhance customer loyalty [26][30]. - The "科八条" policy is expected to stimulate M&A activities in the industrial software sector, providing favorable conditions for companies with strong cash reserves [31][32]. 3. Market Growth Potential - China's industrial value-added output accounted for 20.26% of the global total in 2023, providing a solid foundation for the growth of the industrial software market [2]. - The current market share of China's industrial software is only 7.93% of the global market, indicating significant growth potential [2]. - The demand for industrial software is expected to surge as China transitions towards intelligent and high-end manufacturing, creating favorable conditions for market expansion [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key domestic industrial software companies that address critical bottleneck areas, including Huada Jiutian, Gai Lun Electronics, and others [2].
贵州茅台:拟变更副业经理,坚持市场产品齐头并进
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-18 02:03
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 15.9% in 2024, 12.0% in 2025, and 10.9% in 2026, with net profit growth of 17.2%, 12.7%, and 11.1% respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [25] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has appointed Xiang Ping and Zhang Xu as vice general managers, indicating a focus on both production management and market expansion [8][16] Management Insights - Xiang Ping has extensive experience in production management and technology, which is expected to drive product innovation and optimize production processes [3] - Zhang Xu has a strong background in market management and sales, particularly in promoting the company's sauce-flavored liquor, contributing significantly to market expansion [16] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 150,560 million in 2023, with projections of 174,564 million in 2024, 195,544 million in 2025, and 216,944 million in 2026 [10][12] - The net profit for 2023 is projected at 74,734 million, with expected growth to 87,581 million in 2024, 98,729 million in 2025, and 109,658 million in 2026 [10][12] Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 92.0% for the next few years, with net profit margin projected to increase slightly from 52.5% in 2023 to 53.5% in 2026 [12][21] - The company's return on equity is projected to improve from 34.7% in 2023 to 38.1% in 2026, indicating strong profitability [12][21]
贵州茅台:拟变更副总经理,坚持市场产品齐头并进
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-18 01:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai [5][13] Core Views - Guizhou Moutai is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 1,745.6 billion, CNY 1,955.4 billion, and CNY 2,169.4 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.9%, 12.0%, and 10.9% respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be CNY 875.8 billion, CNY 987.3 billion, and CNY 1,096.6 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 17.2%, 12.7%, and 11.1% respectively [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing product quality and market efficiency under the leadership of new executives, Xiang Ping and Zhang Xu, who bring extensive experience in production management and marketing [16] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at CNY 150,560 million, with projections of CNY 174,564 million for 2024, CNY 195,544 million for 2025, and CNY 216,944 million for 2026 [8][19] - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 92.0% to 92.2% over the forecast period [8][19] - The net profit for 2023 is CNY 74,734 million, with forecasts of CNY 87,581 million, CNY 98,729 million, and CNY 109,658 million for the subsequent years [19][20] Management Changes - The company announced the appointment of Xiang Ping and Zhang Xu as candidates for vice president, indicating a strategic focus on both production and marketing [3][15] - Both executives have a strong background in their respective fields, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's growth and market positioning [16]
洁美科技:H1业绩符合预期,离型膜业务进展顺利
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-17 14:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 839 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 121 million yuan, up 20.88% year-on-year [4] - The company is experiencing a recovery in demand, leading to an increase in market share for carrier tapes and adhesive tapes, while the release of new products in the release film segment is progressing smoothly [5] - The company has successfully developed low roughness release films for MLCC and mid-to-high-end polarizer release films, with stable supply to major customers [5] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 36.52%, an increase of 3.32 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 14.45%, up 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company’s revenue for H1 2024 was 839 million yuan, with a net profit of 121 million yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 118 million yuan [4] - The company expects revenues of 2.112 billion yuan, 2.874 billion yuan, and 3.789 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 364 million yuan, 515 million yuan, and 696 million yuan for the same years [5][6] Business Segment Performance - In H1 2024, revenue from carrier tapes was 599 million yuan (up 14.50% YoY), adhesive tapes revenue was 126 million yuan (up 29.61% YoY), and film materials revenue was 71.74 million yuan (up 18.41% YoY) [5] - The company has maintained a high market share in the paper carrier tape sector and is actively expanding capacity in the adhesive tape sector [5] - The company has developed its own production capabilities for precision molds and raw materials in the plastic carrier tape sector, further enhancing its production capacity [5]
迎驾贡酒:业绩超预期,洞藏系列引领结构升级
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-17 14:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 迎驾贡酒(603198.SH) 2024 年 08 月 17 日 增持(维持) 所属行业:食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 当前价格(元):50.72 证券分析师 熊鹏 资格编号:S0120522120002 邮箱:xiongpeng@tebon.com.cn 尤诗超 资格编号:S0120524070004 邮箱:yousc3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 迎驾贡酒 沪深300 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|--------|--------|--------| | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -10.80 | -17.49 | -29.63 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -6.43 | -11.96 | -21.54 | 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 1.《迎驾贡酒(603198.SH):洞藏延 续高增,业绩超预期》,2024.4.26 2.《 ...
金徽股份:24H1铅锌矿量价齐升,净利增超40%
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-17 14:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 金徽股份(603132.SH) 2024 年 08 月 17 日 相关研究 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------| | 金徽股份( 增持(维持) | 603132.SH ): 24H1 | | 所属行业:有色金属 / 工业金属 当前价格 ( 元 ) : 11.38 | 铅锌矿量价齐升,净利增超 40% | 投资要点 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谷瑜 邮箱:guyu5@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 金徽股份 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|----------------|--------------|--------| | -34% 2023- ...
青矩技术:24Q2固投降速导致需求偏弱,经营重心转为攻坚核心战略客户
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-17 14:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 青矩技术(836208.BJ) 2024 年 08 月 17 日 投资要点 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------| | 增持(维持) 青矩技术( | ): 24Q2 固投降速导致 | | | | | | | | 所属行业:建筑装饰 / 工程咨询服务Ⅱ 当前价格 ( 元 ) : 20.27 | 需求偏弱,经营重心转为攻坚核心战略客户 | | | | 证券分析师 闫广 资格编号:S0120521060002 邮箱:yanguang@tebon.com.cn 王逸枫 资格编号:S0120524010004 邮箱:wangyf6@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 0% 17% 34% 51% 69% 青矩技术 沪深300 -17% | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|---- ...
孩子王:Q2业绩同比改善,积极推进三扩战略
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-16 12:30
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 孩子王(301078.SZ) 2024 年 08 月 16 日 增持(维持) 所属行业:商贸零售/专业连锁Ⅱ 当前价格(元):5.32 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号:S0120523070004 邮箱:yidy@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -57% -46% -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 孩子王 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------|-------|--------| | | | | | | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -1.66 | -3.38 | -14.73 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | 2.09 | 2.15 | -6.99 | | 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《孩子王(301078.SZ):Q2 业绩环 比改善,看好全国化优势沉淀》, 2023.8.29 孩子 ...
零跑汽车:2024Q2毛利率转正,出海进程稳步推进
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-16 08:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan in Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 53.7%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.2 billion yuan, indicating a slight increase in losses compared to the previous year [5]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 2.8%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points year-on-year and 4.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The company is expected to see significant sales growth in Q3 2024, with over 28,000 new orders in July and plans to launch new models at the Paris Auto Show in October 2024 [5]. - The international expansion is progressing steadily, with nearly 2,000 units of C10 and T03 shipped to Europe, and plans to establish over 200 sales outlets in Europe by the end of 2024 [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 27.49 billion yuan, 47.22 billion yuan, and 68.28 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding net profits are expected to be -4.18 billion yuan, -2.56 billion yuan, and 130 million yuan [6][8]. - The gross margin is projected to improve to 5.5% in 2024, 9.0% in 2025, and 11.5% in 2026 [8]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 30.23 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected total market value of 30.28 billion yuan [7][8].
煤炭行业月报:供给增速放缓,需求预期改善
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-16 08:41
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 煤炭开采 2024 年 08 月 16 日 煤炭 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 薛磊 资格编号:S0120524020001 邮箱:xuelei@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱:xiejy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 煤炭开采 沪深300 -22% -11% 0% 11% 22% 33% 44% 55% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报:基本面震荡磨底,建议 逢低布局》,2024.8.11 2.《永泰能源事件点评:资源规模扩 张,业绩增长可期》,2024.8.8 3.《煤炭周报:日耗延续高位,板块 调整后价值凸显》,2024.8.4 4.《新集能源(601918.SH):吨煤 毛利同比高增,煤电一体未来可期》, 2024.7.31 5.《平煤股份事件点评:煤炭生产恢 复,增持彰显信心》,2024.7.31 煤炭行业月报:供给增速放缓, 需求预期改善 [Table_Su ...