张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 宏观点评 | | | | 2024 年 08 月 07 日 | | | | | 外汇储备稳中有升，汇率风险总体可控 | | | | | | —— 2024 | 月外汇储备数据点评 | | 证券分析师 | | | | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 相关研究 核心观点：截止 7 月底，中国外汇储备 32563.72 亿美元，环比增加 340.1 亿美 元。受美债收益率下行和美元贬值影响，估值效应或是外储增加的主要原因；而 7 月多数时间美元对人民币汇率高位运行或持续压制结汇需求。向前看，外储方 面，预计估值因素继续推升外储，短期内结汇需求释放有望降低交易因素对外储 的消耗；汇率方面， ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 公用事业 2024 年 08 月 07 日 公用事业 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 郭雪 资格编号：S0120522120001 邮箱：guoxue＠tebon.com.cn 联系人 刘正 邮箱：liuzheng3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 沪深300 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2022-04 2022-08 2022-12 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《穗恒运 A（000531.SZ）:煤价上 涨致业绩短期承压，新能源产业发展 多点开花》，2023.4.12 2.《苏试试验（300416.SZ）：实验室 产能陆续释放，环试服务占比持续增 加》，2023.4.12 3.《ESG 双周报：央企控股上市公司 ESG 信披指引有望下半年出台，助 力资本市场全面评价央企价值》， 2023.4.10 4.《政策出台助力光热发电，行业规 模化发展有望提速》，2023.4.10 5.《环保与公用事业周报-加快钢铁 领域超低排放改造，光热发电规模化 发展有望提速》，2023.4.9 新型电力系统建设加速， ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|-------|----------------------------------|-------| | | | | | 2024 年 08 月 07 日 | | | | | | | | | | 宏观点评 | | | | 出口延续强势 | | | | | | | | | | | | | —— | 2024 年 7 月进出口数据点评 | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | 相关研究 《供给优势继续推升出口——2024 年 6 月进出口数据点评》 《出口再度回升，继续保持乐观—— 2024 年 5 月进出口数据点评》 《出口回暖，关注量价指数的结构变 化——2024年4月进出口数据点评》 《无需悲观：剔除基数影响及闰年扰 动，出口正增——2024 年 3 月进出 口数据点评》 《出口超预期，关注中间品贸易强链 延链——2024年 1-2月进出口数据点 评》 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：7 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [3] Core Insights - The successful launch of the Qianfan Polar Orbit 01 satellite on August 6 marks the beginning of China's satellite internet "ten-thousand star constellation" project, transitioning the G60 industry chain from thematic investment to value investment [3] - The Qianfan satellite constellation aims to provide regional network coverage with 648 satellites by the end of 2025 and global coverage by the end of 2027, ultimately reaching 15,000 satellites by 2030 for multi-service integration [3] - The establishment of a commercial satellite launch site in Wenchang, Hainan, and the successful testing of reusable rockets indicate that the physical conditions for satellite internet infrastructure are maturing, with 2024 expected to be a pivotal year for the industry [4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The G60 satellite digital factory is expected to produce 300 satellites annually, with a production cycle of approximately 1.5 days per satellite, leading to the launch of over 1,000 satellites in the coming years [3] - The report identifies five investment directions, including focusing on products that benefit from both satellite and ground station operations, and those with strong downstream demand and application growth [4] Policy and Market Environment - The central government's recognition of commercial aerospace as a strategic emerging industry and the recent reforms in the satellite internet access system are expected to enhance private capital participation, accelerating the industry's development [4] - The establishment of various space information industry funds and alliances indicates a collaborative growth environment for the satellite internet sector [4] Recommended Companies - The report suggests monitoring companies across various segments, including satellite manufacturing, communication payloads, and ground equipment, highlighting specific firms such as航天环宇, 创意信息, and 中国卫通 among others [7]

Economic Overview - Current economic challenges include "de-real estate" and "de-China" pressures, with a strong policy strategy focused on a "manufacturing nation" approach[1] - Q2 economic growth fell below targets, prompting increased policy support and potential issuance of new government bonds[1] Industrial Production - July's industrial added value is expected to grow by approximately 5.4% year-on-year, showing a slight recovery from June[2] - The manufacturing PMI for July is projected at 49.4%, indicating continued expansion in production but contraction in demand[10] Retail Sales - Retail sales in July are anticipated to increase by 4.5% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in June, driven by improved consumer sentiment and income expectations[2][14] - The service sector shows mixed performance, with rising restaurant closures impacting overall consumption[14] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 5.5% year-on-year for the first seven months, supported by policy measures and special bond issuance[18] - Manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate, bolstered by supportive policies aimed at equipment upgrades[2][18] Trade Performance - July exports are forecasted to rise by 9.8% year-on-year, while imports are expected to increase by only 0.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of $106.1 billion[3][9] Inflation and Prices - July's CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI is projected to decline by 0.9%[3][9] - Key inflation drivers include fluctuations in pork prices, with expectations of a rise to around 30 RMB/kg by year-end[3] Financial Indicators - New loans in July are estimated at approximately 600 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 250 billion RMB, with a loan balance growth rate of 8.9%[4][9] - Social financing is projected to increase by around 1.4 trillion RMB in July, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.4%[4][9]

Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 5, global risk assets experienced significant adjustments, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 4,400 points, marking a record single-day decline of over 12%[7] - The Vix index saw its second-largest single-day increase in history, indicating heightened investor panic[1] - The S&P 500 index fell below 5,400 points, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped below 3.9%[21] Group 2: Triggering Factors - The adjustment in expectations regarding the AI technology cycle led to a significant decline in U.S. tech stocks since mid-July, with major companies like Tesla and Alphabet reporting disappointing earnings[10] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike to 0.25% from a previous range of 0-0.1% triggered a rapid appreciation of the yen, leading to a reversal of carry trade strategies[13] - The U.S. recession expectations intensified following a surge in unemployment data, with the Sahm Rule recession indicator crossing the 0.5 threshold, indicating a higher likelihood of recession[21] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The combination of these factors has created a negative feedback loop, where the appreciation of the yen pressures high-yield assets, leading to further sell-offs in global markets[24] - The decline in U.S. stocks is pressuring the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, reminiscent of the emergency 50 basis point cut in March 2020[26] - Emerging markets are particularly sensitive to U.S. dollar liquidity, with potential margin call risks and liquidity spiral effects impacting commodities and other assets[25] Group 4: Future Outlook - Attention should be focused on potential market stabilization policies from Japan and the U.S. to mitigate the ongoing volatility[26] - The need for targeted liquidity support tools is emphasized to strengthen market liquidity amid rising margin call risks and liquidity spirals[26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The media industry is expected to benefit from policy-driven consumption demand, particularly in entertainment sectors such as film, gaming, publishing, cultural tourism, and sports [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Entertainment Sector - The supply side in film and gaming is anticipated to improve in both quantity and quality, stimulating demand and uplifting the industry as a whole. Key measures include supporting differentiated film distribution and enhancing the quality of online literature and games. The film industry is projected to benefit from an increase in the number and types of films, with recommendations to focus on companies like Wanda Film, Shanghai Film, and Light Media [5]. - In gaming, high-quality development is expected to optimize the competitive landscape, with major players likely to dominate further. Suggested companies include Tencent Holdings and NetEase [5]. - The broadcasting sector is also expected to improve, with a focus on companies with comprehensive licenses and state-owned backgrounds, such as Mango Super Media and Oriental Pearl [5]. Publishing Sector - The report highlights the potential for growth in personalized education needs, particularly in social training and after-school services. Measures include promoting high-quality educational resources and enhancing service quality in vocational education. Companies like Anhui Xinhua Media and Southern Media are recommended for investment [6]. Cultural Tourism Sector - The report outlines multiple initiatives to support the cultural tourism industry, including the development of national cultural and tourism consumption demonstration cities and enhancing project experience and interactivity. Companies such as Electric Broadcasting Media and Wind Language are suggested for attention [6][7]. Sports Sector - The importance of event IP is increasing, with expectations for sustained growth in sports-related consumption. The report notes that China's sports consumption scale is projected to grow from approximately 1.5 trillion yuan in 2023 to 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025. Companies like Lisheng Sports are recommended for investment [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a total vehicle sales of 171,000 units in July, a year-on-year decrease of 17.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 24.2% [6] - The sales of the company's self-owned brands reached 139,000 units, down 18.5% year-on-year and 26.3% month-on-month [6] - The company launched the Deep Blue S07 in July, with a price range of 149,900 to 212,900 yuan, and saw a year-on-year increase in deliveries of 26.9% [6] - The company has entered the Latin American market, with the Deep Blue brand starting pre-sales in Mexico [6] Financial Summary - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 8.186 billion, 10.277 billion, and 12.639 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 16, 13, and 10 times respectively [7] - The total revenue forecast for 2024 is 186.713 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 23.4% [9] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 17.6% in 2024, with a slight increase to 18.0% in 2025 [9] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 215.391 billion yuan by 2024 [9]

Economic Trends - The US economy is showing signs of weakness, with manufacturing PMI and non-farm payroll data declining significantly, and unemployment rising to 4.3%[1] - The market is experiencing a "risk-off" sentiment as expectations for Fed rate cuts increase alongside the Bank of Japan's unexpected rate hike, leading to a retreat from popular global assets[1] Market Reactions - As of August 5, 2024, the Nikkei 225 index fell by 12.4% in a single day, while the TOPIX index dropped by 12.2%[1] - The volatility index for the Nikkei 225 (NVIE) surged by 140.1% in one day, indicating heightened market uncertainty[1] - The South Korean Composite Index saw a single-day decline of 8.8%, and Bitcoin has dropped over 20% since July 31, 2024[1] Currency and Interest Rates - Following the Bank of Japan's rate hike, the Japanese yen has appreciated, with the USD/JPY exchange rate falling to around 142[1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield has decreased to below 3.8%[1] Debt Cycle Dynamics - The recent market adjustments are attributed to the narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate differential, which has reduced the arbitrage opportunities that previously supported carry trades[2] - The unwinding of carry trades is seen as a natural evolution of the debt cycle, with historical parallels drawn to the subprime mortgage crisis[2] Future Outlook - To mitigate liquidity shocks, it is anticipated that the Fed and the Bank of Japan will provide positive signals and manage policies, such as accelerating dovish stances or increasing asset purchases[2] - Investment strategies should focus on defensive assets like US Treasuries, gold, and dividend stocks, while also considering opportunities in equities for future rebounds[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, global economic downturns, and geopolitical tensions that could exacerbate market volatility[6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US economy is weakening, with manufacturing PMI and non-farm payroll data showing significant declines, and unemployment rising to 4.3%[2] - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 12.4% in a single day, while the TOPIX index dropped by 12.2%[2] - The volatility index for the Nikkei 225 surged by 140.1% in one day, indicating increased market uncertainty[2] Group 2: Investment Implications - The narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate differential is expected to compress arbitrage opportunities, leading to a natural fluctuation in the debt cycle[3] - Following the Bank of Japan's unexpected rate hike, the yen has appreciated, causing a retreat from carry trades[2] - Investors are advised to focus on defensive assets such as US Treasuries, gold, and dividend stocks in the short term[3] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected inflation in overseas markets, which could lead to tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve[7] - A downturn in the global economic outlook could negatively impact US stock earnings and, consequently, global markets[7] - Geopolitical tensions, such as escalations in the Israel-Palestine conflict, could trigger rapid market volatility[7]