Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for the food and beverage industry to "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a recovery in real estate data, suggesting that the industry fundamentals are expected to improve gradually. The white liquor sector shows potential for investment opportunities in 2025, with recommendations for leading companies with strong performance certainty and channel control capabilities [5][8] - The beer sector is under short-term pressure but maintains a structural upgrade trend, with expectations for demand recovery to drive performance improvements [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support in boosting consumer demand across various segments, including the restaurant supply chain and snack foods, which are expected to benefit from ongoing channel reforms [11][13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The white liquor sector has shown a 1.53% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14%, with leading stocks like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jiansi Yuan showing significant gains [5][8] 2. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.65 percentage points, with a 0.74% increase over the week compared to a 1.39% increase in the CSI 300 [16] 3. Key Data Tracking - White liquor prices have shown fluctuations, with the price of Feitian Moutai at 2450 RMB per bottle, down 2.00% from the previous week [30] - The beer production volume for December 2024 was 241.10 million liters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.20% [33] - The average price of fresh milk was 3.09 RMB per kilogram, showing a slight decrease of 0.32% [37] 4. Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the white liquor sector include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. In the beer sector, Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer are highlighted, while East Peak Beverage and Nongfu Spring are recommended in the soft drink segment [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Insights - The supply expansion cycle for the industry has come to a close, with unprecedented cooperation among major players to stabilize prices. The total production capacity of the industry has increased significantly from 12,800 tons in 2019 to 34,800 tons in 2024, leading to a situation where supply exceeds demand. However, regulatory constraints on new capacity due to environmental concerns are expected to ease the oversupply pressure [7][13][19] - Demand for sucralose is accelerating as it replaces artificial sweeteners that have been flagged for health concerns. The domestic consumption of sucralose has grown at a CAGR of 20.3% from 2019 to 2023, while global artificial sweetener consumption has only grown at 4.0% during the same period. The beverage sector is projected to see a 4.9% increase in production in 2024, further supporting demand [7][32][35] - A tight balance between supply and demand is expected to continue, providing significant earnings elasticity for companies in the industry. If sucralose can replace 20% of the first to third generation artificial sweeteners by 2026, the total market space could reach 26,517 tons. The industry is projected to have a supply-demand gap of -223 tons in 2025 and 148 tons in 2026 [7][52] Summary by Sections Supply Dynamics - The expansion cycle for sucralose production has concluded, with a significant increase in market concentration. The CR3 ratio has risen from 74.22% in 2019 to 83.33% in 2024, indicating a more orderly competitive environment [7][13][19] - Major companies have begun to implement production cuts to manage inventory, resulting in a total production of 19,928 tons in 2024, down 8.34% from 2023 [7][19][24] Demand Trends - Sucralose is positioned to replace potentially harmful sweeteners, with a projected market space of 41,773 tons by 2032 if it can replace 60% of the first to third generation sweeteners. The domestic consumption of sucralose has shown a stable growth trend, with a 13.04% CAGR from 2019 to 2023 [32][35][34] - The beverage industry is expected to drive demand, with a significant increase in production anticipated in the upcoming summer season [35][36] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the supply-demand balance will remain tight, with limited new capacity expected in the near future. The industry is projected to maintain a supply-demand gap of -223 tons in 2025 and 148 tons in 2026, indicating a stable market environment [52][7] - The report highlights the potential for price increases, with significant earnings sensitivity for companies like Jinhe Industrial, which could see substantial revenue increases with price hikes [7][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2] Core Views - The report highlights strong growth expectations for several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs and specific sub-industries such as packaging and vitamins [5][12][13][21][25][30][37] Summary by Sections 1. Companies with Positive Q1 Performance Expectations - **Linuo Packaging**: The company is positioned well in the borosilicate molded bottle industry, with rapid expansion expected to enhance performance. The market demand for molded bottles is projected to reach 74 billion units by 2027, while current production capacity is only about 54 billion units [12] - **Zhejiang Medicine**: Anticipated high growth in Q1 2025 due to strong overseas demand for vitamins A and E, with vitamin E prices showing a significant increase [13][17] - **Huayuan Bio**: Expected to exceed Q1 performance expectations, driven by high prices for vitamin D3 and the rollout of new projects [21][24] - **Yimaitong**: As China's largest online professional physician platform, it has a solid user base and is leveraging AI to enhance its services [25][29] - **Gushengtang**: The company is integrating AI with traditional Chinese medicine, showing a steady increase in patient visits and average spending per visit [30][36] - **Innovative Drugs**: Focus on the volume of products entering the medical insurance list in Q1 2025, with several key drugs expected to perform well [37] 2. Market Performance Overview - The pharmaceutical sector index rose by 1.06% from March 3 to March 7, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.32%. Year-to-date, the sector index has increased by 2.19%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.95% [39][41] 3. Sector Valuation and Trading Volume - As of March 7, 2025, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 31.2, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [46] - The total trading volume for the pharmaceutical sector was 353.32 billion yuan, accounting for 4.2% of the total A-share market volume, with a decrease of 13.9% compared to the previous trading period [50][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electrical equipment industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights stable prices for silicon materials and an increase in photovoltaic glass prices driven by policy changes and demand surges [5][11]. - It suggests investment opportunities in various segments of the renewable energy sector, including solar, wind, and electric vehicles [5][6]. Summary by Sections Silicon Material and Photovoltaic Glass - Silicon material prices remain stable, with N-type polysilicon trading between 39,000-46,000 CNY/ton and an average price of 41,700 CNY/ton. P-type polysilicon averages 34,000 CNY/ton [11][12]. - Photovoltaic glass prices have increased, with 2.0mm glass averaging 13.50 CNY/sqm (up 1 CNY from February) and 3.2mm glass at 22.50 CNY/sqm (up 2 CNY) [11][12]. Investment Recommendations in Renewable Energy - Suggested focus areas include: 1. Integrated component companies with new battery technologies: JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, Trina Solar [5][14]. 2. Emerging technologies in the battery segment: Tongwei Co., Aiko Solar, Junda Co. [5][14]. 3. Silicon wafer companies with efficiency or volume growth potential: TCL Zhonghuan, Shuangliang Eco-Energy [5][14]. 4. Leading inverter companies benefiting from overall growth: Sungrow Power Supply, GoodWe [5][14]. 5. Energy storage battery suppliers: CATL, EVE Energy, Pylontech [5][14]. Wind Power Sector - Recommended stocks include: 1. Offshore wind-related companies: Qifan Cable, Haizhuang Wind Power, Zhenjiang Co. [5][14]. 2. Upstream component manufacturers: Guoda Special Materials, Lixing Co. [5][14]. 3. Turbine manufacturers: Sany Heavy Energy, Mingyang Smart Energy [5][14]. Electric Vehicle Sector - Investment suggestions focus on: 1. Leading companies with global competitiveness: CATL, Enjie, BTR, Tianneng Battery, and others [5][6]. 2. Second-tier lithium battery companies: EVE Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others [5][6]. 3. Quality companies in lithium battery materials: Zhongke Electric, Dangsheng Technology, and others [5][6]. 4. Leading component manufacturers benefiting from global electrification: Inovance Technology, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, and others [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a weekly increase of 2.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.7% [8][23] - The report highlights a positive shift in supply-demand dynamics driven by recent policy initiatives, suggesting a new long-term growth cycle for the chemical industry [19] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index increased by 2.3% during the week, ranking 13th among 31 sectors, with year-to-date performance at +5.1%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [8][23] Key News and Company Announcements - The report emphasizes the importance of small pesticide varieties and the potential for price increases in products like chlorpyrifos, with current prices at 40,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.27% and a monthly increase of 6.67% [33] - A summit for the sucralose industry was held, focusing on establishing a cooperative mechanism among major producers to foster a healthy market ecosystem [33] Product Price and Price Spread Analysis - The report notes significant price increases in various chemical products, with chlorpyrifos and other pesticides expected to see further price hikes due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [10][19] - The report identifies a trend of rising prices for strontium carbonate, driven by supply disruptions and regulatory changes affecting production methods [10][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets that have entered a long-term value zone, with potential for valuation and profit recovery [19] - It highlights sectors with supply constraints, such as vitamins and sucralose, as having significant price elasticity and potential for performance improvement [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to benefit from improving macroeconomic conditions and policy support, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices and overall profitability within the coal-coke-steel supply chain [4][6] - The report highlights the resilience of non-electric demand for coal and anticipates a U-shaped price trend for thermal coal in 2025, driven by limited production growth and recovering demand [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is reported at 688 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous week, while Q5000 coal increased by 1.2% to 601 CNY/ton [12][19] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Rail input to Qinhuangdao port decreased by 9.03% to 423,000 tons, and port throughput fell by 30.08% to the same amount [36] - **Inventory Analysis**: Qinhuangdao's coal inventory increased by 10.47% to 7.49 million tons, while key power plant inventories decreased by 3.48% [44][48] - **International Coal Market**: International coal prices have seen declines, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal at 75 USD/ton, down 1.32% [52][54] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector's performance has lagged behind the broader market, with a 0.45% increase compared to a 1.56% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [57][60] 3. Important Events Review - The report notes significant developments in the coal industry, including a 5.4% year-on-year increase in Inner Mongolia's coal production, positioning it as the leading coal-producing region in China [63] - China’s coal imports for January-February 2025 totaled 76.12 million tons, reflecting a 2.1% increase year-on-year [63][64]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed results last week, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Index leading gains globally[4] - US stock indices experienced a pullback, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq down by -2.4%, -3.1%, and -3.5% respectively[4] - European markets displayed varied performance, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 up by 2.0% and 0.1%, while the UK's FTSE 100 saw a slight decline[4] Economic Indicators - US non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, below the market expectation of 160,000[4] - The ADP employment number for February unexpectedly dropped to 77,000, significantly lower than the expected 140,000 and previous value of 183,000[4] - The Challenger job cuts in February surged to 172,017, a 245% increase from the previous month's 49,795[4] Consumer Confidence - Both the Conference Board and University of Michigan consumer confidence indices showed significant declines, indicating weakening consumer expectations[4] - Upcoming retail sales data for February is expected to be pessimistic due to the downturn in consumer sentiment[4] Geopolitical Factors - The decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative is attributed to changes in economic, technological, and geopolitical landscapes[4] - The ongoing Ukraine situation has highlighted the US's isolationist tendencies, impacting its global influence and the perception of "American exceptionalism"[4] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include focusing on the Japanese stock market, European equities, small-cap growth stocks in the US, and broad opportunities in emerging markets[4] - The duration of the decline in US dollar assets is closely tied to geopolitical developments in Ukraine and the decisions of President Zelensky[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, global economic downturns, and escalations in geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from a favorable economic environment, with a focus on both precious and industrial metals. The anticipated economic recovery and policy support are likely to drive demand and prices upward [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a significant performance compared to the CSI 300 index, with fluctuations noted in the market [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 closing at 679 CNY per gram, reflecting a weekly change of 1.3% and an annual change of 34.5% [14]. - COMEX gold futures closed at 2918 USD per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.8% [14]. - Silver prices also rose, with COMEX silver at 32.9 USD per ounce, showing a weekly change of 3.8% [16]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates a rise in industrial metal prices, with SHFE copper prices increasing by 1.9% to 78320 CNY per ton, and LME copper prices rising by 3.2% to 9664 USD per ton [35]. - Aluminum prices have also seen an increase, with SHFE aluminum at 20835 CNY per ton, reflecting a weekly change of 0.9% [50]. - Nickel prices rose by 2.3%, with SHFE nickel at 129550 CNY per ton [37]. Rare Earths and Tungsten - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have decreased, while tungsten concentrate prices have also seen a decline [8]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have stabilized, while cobalt prices have increased, indicating a mixed outlook for energy metals [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zhongjin Lingnan, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium for potential investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [6][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Recent supply disruptions in small pesticide varieties due to uncontrollable factors have led to potential price increases as spring demand approaches [4] - The supply chain for key intermediates like chlorpyrifos is facing challenges, which, combined with seasonal demand, is expected to drive prices up for products like chlorpyrifos and glyphosate [6] - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including Lier Chemical, Fengshan Group, and Xinong Co., which are positioned to benefit from these market dynamics [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance trend with a range from -22% to +22% over the specified periods [3] Key Events - Supply-side disruptions have been noted, such as the shutdown of chloracetyl chloride production in Shandong and the cessation of 10,000 tons of acetamiprid capacity in Ningxia [4] Price Trends - Prices for chlorpyrifos are currently low, with a historical percentile of 27.7%, indicating significant potential for price increases [6] - Acetamiprid prices have shown a week-on-week increase of 3.13% and a month-on-month increase of 13.01%, with current prices at 82,500 CNY/ton [6] - The report indicates that the prices for abamectin and methomyl are also on the rise due to limited supply and strong demand, with current prices at 490,000 CNY/ton and 680,000 CNY/ton respectively [6] Recommended Companies - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Lier Chemical, Fengshan Group, Xinong Co., and others for potential investment opportunities based on the outlined market conditions [6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 03 月 08 日 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 扰动增多，估值影响放大 ——2025 年 2 月外汇储备数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：截止 2 月底，中国外汇储备 32272.24 亿美元，环比增加 181.9 亿美 元。2 月美债长端收益率下行，估值效应带来外储增加；外资或增配中国资产，带 来增量外汇资金；交易因素或继续导致外储增值。向前看，外储方面，预计短期估 值效应对外储的扰动放大，交易因素可能仍造成一定外储减值压力；汇率方面，强 美元或在降温，但人民币汇率指数下行导致人民币汇率仍可能阶段性承压；央行货 币政策方面，政府工作报告和潘行长表述积极，宽货币窗口或将至，我们认为，在 宽货币的基础上，或需积极探索更有效的工具，全方位扩大投融资需求。 估值效应或是 2 月外储增加主因：从外储变化的各因素来看，估 ...