Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]

Group 1: Current Inflation Status - The CPI in June 2025 increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly below the 2% inflation target[3] - The PPI in June 2025 dropped to -3.6%, marking the lowest level in the year and continuing a negative trend for 33 consecutive months[3][19] - Key factors contributing to low CPI include weak performance in food and energy prices, underestimating the impact of "de-real estate," and weak demand for durable goods and services[3][15][18] Group 2: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a weaker impact on inflation compared to "capacity reduction" policies, as it focuses on market mechanisms rather than administrative measures[3][26] - CPI recovery to above 2% is anticipated to be slow due to ample supply and underappreciated real estate factors[3][29] - PPI is projected to turn positive by Q2 2026, with a forecasted year-end PPI of -1.3% in 2025[3][29] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Risks include unexpected downturns in the real estate market and insufficient policy effectiveness[3][29] - The relationship between PPI and commodity prices is crucial, with coal, rebar, lithium carbonate, copper, pork, and crude oil being significant influencers[3][20][22] - Recent commodity price trends show a decline in coal and rebar prices, while copper has shown signs of recovery[3][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a potential turning point for glyphosate due to demand stimulation and supply disturbances, with inventory levels significantly reduced by 60.76% from the year's peak [5]. - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, marking a 25.62% rise from the bottom, indicating a strong price recovery trend [5]. - The report suggests that the South American market is expected to drive overall demand for glyphosate, especially during the peak planting season from June to August [5]. - The global glyphosate production capacity is approximately 1.18 million tons per year, with China accounting for 810,000 tons (68.6%) [5]. - The introduction of new standards for glyphosate and glufosinate ammonium is expected to constrain supply, potentially benefiting companies like Limin Chemical and Limin Co. [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report provides a comparative performance analysis of the basic chemical industry against the CSI 300 index, showing fluctuations in market performance [3]. Related Research - Previous reports have focused on supply-side disturbances and investment opportunities in glyphosate [4]. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the significant reduction in glyphosate inventory, which is currently at 34,100 tons, down from a high of 86,900 tons earlier in the year [5]. - Exports of glyphosate to Brazil have shown substantial growth, with April and May exports increasing by 43.71% and 137.27% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - The price of glufosinate ammonium has become more competitive compared to glyphosate, with current prices at 43,700 CNY per ton, only 1.7 to 2.2 times that of glyphosate [5].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 深度报告 2025 年 07 月 15 日 宏观专题 证券分析师 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： OBBB 法案落地后，特朗普选民支持率下降，"MAGA"基本盘（非大学白人男性、 中低收入群体）对法案支持率不足 40%，对总统工作的认可度跌破 50%；先前倒 戈支持他的西班牙裔和非白人群体认可率分别降至 43%和 37%；在各州层面，当 前全美仅 16 州保持对其净正面支持，多数关键摇摆州支持率已跌破半数，这显示 出特朗普的执政基础已发生动摇。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 特朗普自上任以来，高举"美国优先"大旗采取一系列反市场、反规律的政策举措， 对政治、贸易、经济、金融市场等稳定性带来一系列扰动，随着金融市场、国内政 治和经济前景的变化，一定程度上制约了其"随心所欲"的施政。我们在 4 月 15 日外发的《关税背后"分裂"的美国》对特朗普背后的政治支持力量进行了细致分 析，三个月以来，特朗普关税政策出现摇摆、各国关税谈判逐步落地和 OBBB 法 案的涉险过关，特朗普背后的政治支持力量也开始变化，出现了选民支持率下降、 社会公正性引 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic substitution in computing power technology, driven by breakthroughs in hardware and software ecosystems, particularly represented by Huawei [5][13] - The introduction of standardized data circulation contracts by the National Data Bureau is expected to enhance transaction efficiency by 30% [4][17] - The establishment of a 6G industry policy in Beijing aims to foster key technology development and standardization efforts [8][18] - The report emphasizes the significant market demand for domestic AI chips and the commercial viability of the HarmonyOS ecosystem [14][15] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Domestic substitution in computing power is entering an accelerated phase, with Huawei's Matrix 384 super node providing 300 PFLOP computing power, significantly outperforming competitors [5][13] - The shipment of Ascend 910 series AI chips has begun, with initial orders for the 910C chip expected to exceed 70,000 units, valued at approximately $2 billion [14] - National funding and local government support are paving the way for opportunities in domestic semiconductor and operating system development [15] Industry News - The National Data Bureau's new contract templates for data circulation are expected to standardize agreements and enhance transaction efficiency [4][17] - Beijing's 6G industry policy focuses on key technology breakthroughs and aims to establish a robust 6G ecosystem by 2030 [8][18] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has formed a leadership group to promote general aviation and low-altitude economy development [20] - China Telecom has launched a full-scenario application for satellite direct connection, marking a significant step in integrated network applications [21] Market Performance Review - The telecommunications sector saw a 2.19% increase this week, outperforming major indices [9][22] - Key sectors such as optical modules and industrial internet showed strong growth, with increases of 5.04% and 2.57% respectively [22][25] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the domestic AI computing chain [22][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising by 0.53% and silver prices by 4.07% in the week of July 7-11, 2025. The gold-silver ratio has reached a maximum of over 100 this year, indicating potential for further increases in silver prices as gold prices stabilize [4] - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, with fluctuations in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices noted. The report highlights a significant discrepancy between Indonesia's nickel production quotas and actual output due to seasonal weather impacts [4] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have increased, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand. Tungsten prices are also rising, indicating a steady growth in demand for tungsten in production tools [4] - Energy metals show mixed trends, with lithium prices increasing while cobalt and nickel prices are declining. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [4] - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, and domestic monetary policies are expected to support growth [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with the gold-silver ratio indicating potential for silver price increases [4][5] 1.2 Industrial Metals - The report provides a detailed overview of price changes for various industrial metals, noting specific percentage changes for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel [27] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth metals and tungsten have increased, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing and steady demand growth [28][31] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rising, while cobalt and nickel prices are declining, highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring of energy metal demand [34] 2. Market Data - The report notes that the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 1.02% increase, with specific sectors like metal new materials and precious metals showing significant gains [35] 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights significant developments in the industry, including the successful launch of a new aluminum electrolysis production line and the planned expansion of an electrolytic aluminum project [41][42]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance last week, with US indices experiencing declines: Nasdaq down -0.1%, S&P 500 down -0.3%, and Dow Jones down -1.0%[3] - European markets saw gains, with Germany's DAX up +2.0%, France's CAC40 up +1.7%, and UK's FTSE 100 up +1.3%[3] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Vietnam's VN30 index led gains, while Japan's Nikkei 225 and India's SENSEX30 indices experienced pullbacks[3] Tariff Impact - The reintroduction of tariffs has created significant uncertainty for TACO transactions, with US tariffs on the EU exceeding expectations, ranging from 25% to 50% effective August 1[3] - Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, alongside a 35% tariff on Canada, indicates a strategy of "maximum pressure" on allies, potentially disrupting market perceptions of TACO transactions[3] - According to TAX FOUNDATION, the weighted average tariff rate is projected to rise to 16.1%, leading to an estimated annual tariff revenue of $665.91 billion based on a $4.1 trillion import scale for 2024[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Divergence in interest rate cut expectations has increased, influenced by tariff uncertainties; some Fed officials express caution regarding inflation impacts from tariffs[3] - The latest FOMC minutes indicate a preference for observing tariff impacts before deciding on rate cuts, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut starting in September[3] - Trump's pressure on the Fed, including social media calls for rate cuts, adds complexity to the interest rate outlook, with market volatility expected until September[3] Investment Strategy - The unexpected tariffs may impact TACO transactions and short-term market sentiment, leading to increased volatility in US stocks and gold[3] - Long-term investment recommendations include positioning in US Treasuries and XBI, which may benefit from strengthened rate cut expectations[3] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market volatility[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.2 percentage points [4][16] - The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers controlling supply and prices. Recent production cuts by key players are expected to sustain potash market conditions [5][27] - Phosphate supply remains tight, with stable prices and potential improvements in export opportunities as demand increases [5][27] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [13] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved fundamentals and reduced risks [13][14] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.4 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 8.9%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [16][18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 298 stocks rose while 123 fell during the week [25] - The top performers included companies like Shangwei New Materials (+72.9%) and Hongbo New Materials (+24.7%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The autumn fertilizer preparation has begun, with a focus on investment opportunities in potash and phosphate fertilizers [27] - Major potash producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to tighten supply and support prices [5][27] - Phosphate prices remain stable, with potential for improved export conditions as demand increases [5][27] 5. Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with notable gains in dimethylamine (+16.7%) and fatty alcohol (+8.2%) [6] - Conversely, urea prices have seen a significant decline (-15%) [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the closure of Dow's UK plant, which has a capacity of 145,000 tons, is part of a strategy to optimize European assets and focus on high-value derivatives, signaling a potential marginal improvement in the organic silicon industry [6] - The report anticipates that the exit of overseas capacity will lead to an increase in the prices of organic silicon base materials, alleviating some of the downward price pressure caused by global overcapacity [6] - The report notes that the domestic manufacturers with better cost control are likely to benefit from the demand shift due to the closure of overseas plants [6] - The report emphasizes that the organic silicon industry is entering a phase of supply-side pressure relief, with a significant increase in production capacity expected in 2024, but the lack of large-scale new capacity following this period may lead to improved supply dynamics [6] - The report indicates that the domestic demand for organic silicon is expected to grow steadily, driven by increased penetration in emerging fields such as electronics, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaic cells [6] - The report also highlights that China's exports of polysiloxane are projected to reach approximately 80,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a significant growth opportunity as overseas demand remains strong [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report provides a comparative performance analysis showing a range of market movements from -15% to +29% for the basic chemical sector against the CSI 300 index from July 2024 to July 2025 [3] Related Research - The report references several related studies that discuss trends in deep-sea technology, policy impacts on capacity overcapacity, and the recovery of demand for light initiators, indicating a broader context for the organic silicon market [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group, Dongyue Silicon Materials, and Sanyou Chemical as potential investment opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are expected to perform well in the long term, with gold prices rising by 1.94% recently. The ongoing tariff issues and the weakening global position of the US dollar are anticipated to support gold prices [5]. - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, with significant increases in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices observed recently [5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by the Fed's easing cycle and domestic monetary policies, recommending investments in companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Zijin Mining [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report notes a recent increase in domestic gold prices and discusses the impact of tariff fluctuations on the market [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have shown positive weekly changes, with copper reaching a peak of 10015 USD/ton on the London Metal Exchange [5][28]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth metals, particularly praseodymium and neodymium oxides, have increased, reflecting a growing demand in manufacturing [5][30]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium hydroxide prices have decreased, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend, indicating a mixed outlook for energy metals [5][34]. 2. Market Data - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 1.03% increase, with various sub-sectors performing differently [36]. 3. Important Events Review - The report discusses recent announcements by US President Trump regarding new tariffs, which are expected to impact the market starting August 1 [42].