Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2] Core Views - The report highlights strong growth expectations for several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs and specific sub-industries such as packaging and vitamins [5][12][13][21][25][30][37] Summary by Sections 1. Companies with Positive Q1 Performance Expectations - **Linuo Packaging**: The company is positioned well in the borosilicate molded bottle industry, with rapid expansion expected to enhance performance. The market demand for molded bottles is projected to reach 74 billion units by 2027, while current production capacity is only about 54 billion units [12] - **Zhejiang Medicine**: Anticipated high growth in Q1 2025 due to strong overseas demand for vitamins A and E, with vitamin E prices showing a significant increase [13][17] - **Huayuan Bio**: Expected to exceed Q1 performance expectations, driven by high prices for vitamin D3 and the rollout of new projects [21][24] - **Yimaitong**: As China's largest online professional physician platform, it has a solid user base and is leveraging AI to enhance its services [25][29] - **Gushengtang**: The company is integrating AI with traditional Chinese medicine, showing a steady increase in patient visits and average spending per visit [30][36] - **Innovative Drugs**: Focus on the volume of products entering the medical insurance list in Q1 2025, with several key drugs expected to perform well [37] 2. Market Performance Overview - The pharmaceutical sector index rose by 1.06% from March 3 to March 7, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.32%. Year-to-date, the sector index has increased by 2.19%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.95% [39][41] 3. Sector Valuation and Trading Volume - As of March 7, 2025, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 31.2, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [46] - The total trading volume for the pharmaceutical sector was 353.32 billion yuan, accounting for 4.2% of the total A-share market volume, with a decrease of 13.9% compared to the previous trading period [50][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electrical equipment industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights stable prices for silicon materials and an increase in photovoltaic glass prices driven by policy changes and demand surges [5][11]. - It suggests investment opportunities in various segments of the renewable energy sector, including solar, wind, and electric vehicles [5][6]. Summary by Sections Silicon Material and Photovoltaic Glass - Silicon material prices remain stable, with N-type polysilicon trading between 39,000-46,000 CNY/ton and an average price of 41,700 CNY/ton. P-type polysilicon averages 34,000 CNY/ton [11][12]. - Photovoltaic glass prices have increased, with 2.0mm glass averaging 13.50 CNY/sqm (up 1 CNY from February) and 3.2mm glass at 22.50 CNY/sqm (up 2 CNY) [11][12]. Investment Recommendations in Renewable Energy - Suggested focus areas include: 1. Integrated component companies with new battery technologies: JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, Trina Solar [5][14]. 2. Emerging technologies in the battery segment: Tongwei Co., Aiko Solar, Junda Co. [5][14]. 3. Silicon wafer companies with efficiency or volume growth potential: TCL Zhonghuan, Shuangliang Eco-Energy [5][14]. 4. Leading inverter companies benefiting from overall growth: Sungrow Power Supply, GoodWe [5][14]. 5. Energy storage battery suppliers: CATL, EVE Energy, Pylontech [5][14]. Wind Power Sector - Recommended stocks include: 1. Offshore wind-related companies: Qifan Cable, Haizhuang Wind Power, Zhenjiang Co. [5][14]. 2. Upstream component manufacturers: Guoda Special Materials, Lixing Co. [5][14]. 3. Turbine manufacturers: Sany Heavy Energy, Mingyang Smart Energy [5][14]. Electric Vehicle Sector - Investment suggestions focus on: 1. Leading companies with global competitiveness: CATL, Enjie, BTR, Tianneng Battery, and others [5][6]. 2. Second-tier lithium battery companies: EVE Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others [5][6]. 3. Quality companies in lithium battery materials: Zhongke Electric, Dangsheng Technology, and others [5][6]. 4. Leading component manufacturers benefiting from global electrification: Inovance Technology, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, and others [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a weekly increase of 2.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.7% [8][23] - The report highlights a positive shift in supply-demand dynamics driven by recent policy initiatives, suggesting a new long-term growth cycle for the chemical industry [19] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index increased by 2.3% during the week, ranking 13th among 31 sectors, with year-to-date performance at +5.1%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [8][23] Key News and Company Announcements - The report emphasizes the importance of small pesticide varieties and the potential for price increases in products like chlorpyrifos, with current prices at 40,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.27% and a monthly increase of 6.67% [33] - A summit for the sucralose industry was held, focusing on establishing a cooperative mechanism among major producers to foster a healthy market ecosystem [33] Product Price and Price Spread Analysis - The report notes significant price increases in various chemical products, with chlorpyrifos and other pesticides expected to see further price hikes due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [10][19] - The report identifies a trend of rising prices for strontium carbonate, driven by supply disruptions and regulatory changes affecting production methods [10][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets that have entered a long-term value zone, with potential for valuation and profit recovery [19] - It highlights sectors with supply constraints, such as vitamins and sucralose, as having significant price elasticity and potential for performance improvement [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to benefit from improving macroeconomic conditions and policy support, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices and overall profitability within the coal-coke-steel supply chain [4][6] - The report highlights the resilience of non-electric demand for coal and anticipates a U-shaped price trend for thermal coal in 2025, driven by limited production growth and recovering demand [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is reported at 688 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous week, while Q5000 coal increased by 1.2% to 601 CNY/ton [12][19] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Rail input to Qinhuangdao port decreased by 9.03% to 423,000 tons, and port throughput fell by 30.08% to the same amount [36] - **Inventory Analysis**: Qinhuangdao's coal inventory increased by 10.47% to 7.49 million tons, while key power plant inventories decreased by 3.48% [44][48] - **International Coal Market**: International coal prices have seen declines, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal at 75 USD/ton, down 1.32% [52][54] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector's performance has lagged behind the broader market, with a 0.45% increase compared to a 1.56% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [57][60] 3. Important Events Review - The report notes significant developments in the coal industry, including a 5.4% year-on-year increase in Inner Mongolia's coal production, positioning it as the leading coal-producing region in China [63] - China’s coal imports for January-February 2025 totaled 76.12 million tons, reflecting a 2.1% increase year-on-year [63][64]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed results last week, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Index leading gains globally[4] - US stock indices experienced a pullback, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq down by -2.4%, -3.1%, and -3.5% respectively[4] - European markets displayed varied performance, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 up by 2.0% and 0.1%, while the UK's FTSE 100 saw a slight decline[4] Economic Indicators - US non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, below the market expectation of 160,000[4] - The ADP employment number for February unexpectedly dropped to 77,000, significantly lower than the expected 140,000 and previous value of 183,000[4] - The Challenger job cuts in February surged to 172,017, a 245% increase from the previous month's 49,795[4] Consumer Confidence - Both the Conference Board and University of Michigan consumer confidence indices showed significant declines, indicating weakening consumer expectations[4] - Upcoming retail sales data for February is expected to be pessimistic due to the downturn in consumer sentiment[4] Geopolitical Factors - The decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative is attributed to changes in economic, technological, and geopolitical landscapes[4] - The ongoing Ukraine situation has highlighted the US's isolationist tendencies, impacting its global influence and the perception of "American exceptionalism"[4] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include focusing on the Japanese stock market, European equities, small-cap growth stocks in the US, and broad opportunities in emerging markets[4] - The duration of the decline in US dollar assets is closely tied to geopolitical developments in Ukraine and the decisions of President Zelensky[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, global economic downturns, and escalations in geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from a favorable economic environment, with a focus on both precious and industrial metals. The anticipated economic recovery and policy support are likely to drive demand and prices upward [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a significant performance compared to the CSI 300 index, with fluctuations noted in the market [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 closing at 679 CNY per gram, reflecting a weekly change of 1.3% and an annual change of 34.5% [14]. - COMEX gold futures closed at 2918 USD per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.8% [14]. - Silver prices also rose, with COMEX silver at 32.9 USD per ounce, showing a weekly change of 3.8% [16]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates a rise in industrial metal prices, with SHFE copper prices increasing by 1.9% to 78320 CNY per ton, and LME copper prices rising by 3.2% to 9664 USD per ton [35]. - Aluminum prices have also seen an increase, with SHFE aluminum at 20835 CNY per ton, reflecting a weekly change of 0.9% [50]. - Nickel prices rose by 2.3%, with SHFE nickel at 129550 CNY per ton [37]. Rare Earths and Tungsten - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have decreased, while tungsten concentrate prices have also seen a decline [8]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have stabilized, while cobalt prices have increased, indicating a mixed outlook for energy metals [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zhongjin Lingnan, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium for potential investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [6][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Recent supply disruptions in small pesticide varieties due to uncontrollable factors have led to potential price increases as spring demand approaches [4] - The supply chain for key intermediates like chlorpyrifos is facing challenges, which, combined with seasonal demand, is expected to drive prices up for products like chlorpyrifos and glyphosate [6] - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including Lier Chemical, Fengshan Group, and Xinong Co., which are positioned to benefit from these market dynamics [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance trend with a range from -22% to +22% over the specified periods [3] Key Events - Supply-side disruptions have been noted, such as the shutdown of chloracetyl chloride production in Shandong and the cessation of 10,000 tons of acetamiprid capacity in Ningxia [4] Price Trends - Prices for chlorpyrifos are currently low, with a historical percentile of 27.7%, indicating significant potential for price increases [6] - Acetamiprid prices have shown a week-on-week increase of 3.13% and a month-on-month increase of 13.01%, with current prices at 82,500 CNY/ton [6] - The report indicates that the prices for abamectin and methomyl are also on the rise due to limited supply and strong demand, with current prices at 490,000 CNY/ton and 680,000 CNY/ton respectively [6] Recommended Companies - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Lier Chemical, Fengshan Group, Xinong Co., and others for potential investment opportunities based on the outlined market conditions [6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 03 月 08 日 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 扰动增多，估值影响放大 ——2025 年 2 月外汇储备数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：截止 2 月底，中国外汇储备 32272.24 亿美元，环比增加 181.9 亿美 元。2 月美债长端收益率下行，估值效应带来外储增加；外资或增配中国资产，带 来增量外汇资金；交易因素或继续导致外储增值。向前看，外储方面，预计短期估 值效应对外储的扰动放大，交易因素可能仍造成一定外储减值压力；汇率方面，强 美元或在降温，但人民币汇率指数下行导致人民币汇率仍可能阶段性承压；央行货 币政策方面，政府工作报告和潘行长表述积极，宽货币窗口或将至，我们认为，在 宽货币的基础上，或需积极探索更有效的工具，全方位扩大投融资需求。 估值效应或是 2 月外储增加主因：从外储变化的各因素来看，估 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 通信 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《超越端侧和边缘，AI 向具身智能 跃进》，2025.3.6 2.《DeepSeek 开源的杀伤力》， 2025.3.1 3.《IDC 行业深度：DeepSeek 加速 国产算力链形成闭环，价值网络有望 井喷》，2025.2.25 5.《DeepSeek 加速基础设施和商业 模式成熟》，2025.2.15 通信 2025 年 03 月 08 日 政府加大信息化投资，关注 AI+和特 种行业 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 1. 投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 多家公司公布大型算力租赁合同。 1.1 从云端到具身智能，AI 将持续赋能千行百业。去年，人工智能+首次写入 2024 年政府工作报告。截至目前，人工智能产 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 3 月 8 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 美国经济衰退预期或加码 ——2025 年 2 月美国劳工数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：25 年 2 月，美国就业数据整体表现不佳，或将进一步催化美国经济衰 退预期的提升。其中，二月非农新增就业人数为 15.1 万人，低于预期，预期中值 为 16.0 万人，前值从增 14.3 万人向下修正至增 12.5 万人。失业率方面，二月， 美国失业率回踩至 4.1%，预期中值为 4.0%。市场方面，在就业数据发布当天，美 股三大指数均小幅回升，道琼斯指数上涨 0.52%，纳斯达克指数上涨 0.70%，标 普 500 指数上涨 0.55%。 机构调查数据：2 月新增非农就业人数涨势有所回升，但仍不及预期。 25 年 2 月，美国非农新增就业人数录得 15.1 万人，低于预期中值的 16.0 万人， 略低于过去 12 个月的月平均涨幅 16.8 万人。分行业来看，教育和保健服务、金融 活动、 ...