[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 人福医药(600079.SH) 2024 年 07 月 28 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：医药生物/化学制药 当前价格(元)：18.70 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号：S0120524060001 邮箱：zhouxm＠tebon.com.cn 吴明华 资格编号：S0120524050002 邮箱：wumh3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 人福医药 沪深300 -34% | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------------|--------------|--------| | -43% 2023-07 \n沪深 300 对比 | 2023-11 \n1M | 2024-03 \n2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | 8.47 | -3.56 | -10.15 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | 9.77 | 2.67 | -5.26 | 相关研究 1.《人福医药（600079.SH）：业绩符 合预期，看好 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 166.77 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.88%, and a net profit of 22.87 billion yuan, up 10.37% year-on-year [5] - The company's global market share for power batteries reached 37.5% in the first five months of 2024, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the domestic market share was 46.4%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company continues to innovate with new products, including the "Shenxing Plus" battery and the "Kirin" high-power battery, enhancing its competitive edge in both passenger and commercial vehicle segments [5][6] - The company has a robust production schedule for H2 2024, with an expected increase in capacity utilization [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 417.6 billion, 484.9 billion, and 540.4 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates of 50.9 billion, 59.6 billion, and 70.5 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 16x, 14x, and 12x [6] Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 27% in H1 2024, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The total market capitalization is approximately 832.91 billion yuan, with a total asset value of 715.25 billion yuan [7] - The company’s net profit margin for 2023 is projected at 11.7%, increasing to 13.9% by 2026 [8] Market Comparison - The company's stock performance has shown relative strength against the CSI 300 index, with a 2.35% absolute increase over the past month [3] - The report indicates that the company is expected to outperform the market, with a target price reflecting a significant upside potential [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure in the short term, but long-term development prospects remain positive [2] - The company reported a revenue of 2.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a decrease of 11.49% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 265 million yuan, down 3.73% [3] - The company is focusing on compliance marketing and OTC (over-the-counter) development, which is expected to contribute to future growth [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 4.87 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 4.88 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a slight increase [5] - The net profit for 2023 was 537 million yuan, with a forecasted net profit of 561 million yuan for 2024 [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 74.3% in 2023 to 74.7% in 2024 [6] Research and Development - The company invested 340 million yuan in R&D in the first half of 2024, with an R&D expense ratio of 15.01% [4] - The company has submitted three new drug applications and completed two Phase III clinical studies, indicating a strong pipeline for future products [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted down from 610 million yuan to 560 million yuan for 2024, and from 740 million yuan to 650 million yuan for 2025 [4] - The company is considered a leader in innovative traditional Chinese medicine with a rich pipeline, supporting a long-term positive outlook [4]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 新集能源(601918.SH) 2024 年 07 月 31 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：煤炭/煤炭开采 当前价格(元)：8.49 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 薛磊 资格编号：S0120524020001 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 0% 29% 57% 86% 114% 143% 171% 新集能源 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|--------------|-------| | -29% -57% \n2023-07 \n资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 \n沪深 300 对比 | 2023-11 \n1M | 2024-03 \n2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | ...

德邦电子科技方方舟舟坛16T目前自我参会者讯准注意进入状态现在开始播报免责声明免责声明 本次电话会议仅服务于德邦证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险德邦证券不对因使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任 未经德邦证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位领导大家下午好欢迎大家收听我们每周的科技周刊我是TheBuddy的组长陈茹芳其实从现在的一个行情来看的话科技行业包括电脑行业其实没有特别明显的主线出现比如说像果链都是出现了一些回撤跟着美股那边出现了一些回撤然后自主可控这条支线的话 就是这一条主线里面有特别多支线出现包括你像上一周我们搞了一个汽车芯片国际化的一个专家来聊汽车芯片这样一个国际化的一个目前的一个进展然后包括你像一些设备和一些材料还有一些就是AI芯片其实都属于自主可控这一条整个大的一个支线 那从现在这个位置包括往下一个季度来展望来看的话我们组的一个观点来讲的话第一个一到两年维度上还是首要看好果链而且这一波果链回撤其实挺大的 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - National general public budget revenue for January to June was CNY 115,913 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, but a comparable growth of approximately 1.5% after adjusting for special factors[3]. - National general public budget expenditure for the same period was CNY 136,571 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, achieving 47.8% of the annual budget target[5]. Tax Revenue Insights - Domestic value-added tax, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax growth rates were -5.6%, 6.8%, -5.5%, and -5.7%, respectively[3]. - The decline in tax revenue is primarily attributed to previous tax reduction policies and a high base from the previous year[3]. Fiscal Policy and Future Outlook - The fiscal policy for 2024 is expected to be proactive, with an emphasis on implementing existing macro policies and increasing fiscal spending intensity[14]. - The issuance of special bonds is anticipated to accelerate, with a target of CNY 3.9 trillion in new local government special bonds for 2024[10]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate development investment from January to June saw a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, indicating ongoing structural challenges in the sector[8]. - Land transfer income for local governments fell by 18.3% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of reduced real estate activity[9]. Government Spending Focus - Social security and employment expenditures reached 54.8%, indicating a strong focus on stabilizing employment amid economic recovery efforts[5]. - The government is implementing measures to support youth employment, with a youth unemployment rate of 13.2% for those aged 16-24[5]. Challenges and Risks - The "de-real estate" trend is causing a significant decline in fiscal revenue, with a total drop of CNY 31,397 billion (29.7%) from the peak in 2021 to 2023[7]. - The overall fiscal expenditure growth rate is slow, which may hinder government consumption and affect GDP growth in Q2[39].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 电力设备 2024 年 07 月 24 日 电力设备 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 彭广春 资格编号：S0120522070001 邮箱：penggc＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 电力设备 沪深300 -44% -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《光伏全面进入 N 型时代，BC 电 池增益效果明显》，2024.7.17 2.《提高电网安全高质量发展，南方 电 网 推 动 千 亿 级 设 备 更 新 》， 2024.7.17 3.《光伏多企业布局沙特，出海迈上 新高地》，2024.7.17 4.《阳光电源：全球逆变器龙头企业， 多维度布局新能源业务》，2024.5.28 5.《九洲集团（300040.SZ）： 业绩 短期承压，电网设备+并网规模增量 可期》，2024.5.26 24H1 风光新增装机快速增长，看好国 内风光需求韧性 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：7 月 20 日，国家能源局发布 1-6 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 轻工制造 2024 年 07 月 24 日 轻工制造 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 毕先磊 资格编号：S0120524030001 邮箱：bixl3＠tebon.com.cn 宋姝旺 资格编号：S0120524060004 邮箱：songsw＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 李陌凡 邮箱：limf3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 轻工制造 沪深300 -37% -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《周观点：短期关注中报超预期， 6 月摩托车内销大排量、外销持续景 气》，2024.7.22 2.《周观点：关注估值底部优质消费 龙头，安踏、特步 24Q2 销售状况良 好》，2024.7.15 3.《蒙娜丽莎（002918）：建筑陶瓷 民族龙头，全渠道发力经营质量持续 提升》，2024.7.13 4.《恒林股份：代工修复可期，自主 品 牌 跨 境 电 商 迎 来 高 速 发 展 》， 2024.7.11 5.《周 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 纺织服饰 2024 年 07 月 24 日 纺织服饰 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 毕先磊 资格编号：S0120524030001 邮箱：bixl3＠tebon.com.cn 宋姝旺 资格编号：S0120524060004 邮箱：songsw＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 李陌凡 邮箱：limf3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 纺织服饰 沪深300 -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 纺织服饰基金重仓跟踪：24Q2 品牌重仓比例下降，制造表现更 优 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 纺织服饰：2024Q2 重仓比例下降，纺织制造表现更优。从行业重仓市值比例来看， 2024Q2 纺织服饰板块重仓比例约 0.49%，相较 2024Q1 的 0.59%环比下降，在 31 个申万一级行业中位居第 25 名；从基金重仓持股总市值来看，2024Q2 纺织服 饰板块约 129.67 亿元，同比 2023Q2 下降 21.16%， ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 商业贸易 行业投资评级:优于大市|维持 2024年7月23日 四间四答 :金价波动如何影响 饰品消费及品牌公司业绩 ? -萬金珠宝系列- 1 等分析师 姓名:易丁依 资格编号:S0120523070004 邮箱:yidy@tebon.com.cn 年名:56日 资格编号:S0120524010002 邮箱 : zhangwang@tebon.com.cn 核心观点 ■ 报告导读:本篇作为黄金珠宝系列首篇,将围绕重要要素黄金价格进行深度分析,从定价体系、影响、应对措施及投资四大方向展开,24年以来金价突 破性上涨至历史新高,在此背景下复盘研究更具借鉴意义,重点从消费端切入,我们深度探讨金价波动对于终端消费者、加盟商、品牌方等各个维度的影 响,以及各品牌在强趋势下从交易、渠道及产品维度的应对措施,未来行业竞争要素逐渐从渠道力转向产品力,关注旺季终端需求恢复下龙头弹性。 ■ 黄金定价体系如何拆分?黄金的长期定价体系是供需关系的结果,短期受金融属性影响与多重交易因素共同催化。1 ) 美债美元等资产收益率下滑;2 ) 全球外汇风险;3 ) 地缘政治冲突;4 ) 宽松财政政策等要索均有望强化资 ...