证券研究报告|行业周报 建筑材料 2024 年 07 月 07 日 建筑材料 中性(维持) 证券分析师 闫广 资格编号:S0120521060002 邮箱:yanguang@tebon.com.cn 王逸枫 资格编号:S0120524010004 邮箱:wangyf6@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 建筑材料 沪深300 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《周观点:北京地产政策再优 化 , 中 报 窗 口 期 优 选 绩 优 股 》, 2024.6.30 2.《周观点:水泥玻璃产能置换再 趋严,行业供给格局或逐步改善》, 2024.6.23 3.《凯伦股份(300715.SZ):专注 差异化竞争,高分子防水引领者》, 2024.6.18 4.《5 月行业数据点评:地产投资销 售表现仍弱,核心城市预期有望先 稳》,2024.6.18 5.《周观点:玻纤电子纱再提价,5 月居民长贷依旧低迷》,2024.6.16 周观点:沿江熟料第三轮提涨 50 元每 吨,百强房企 6 月销售环比改善 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 公用事业 2024 年 07 月 07 日 公用事业 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 郭雪 | 资格编号: S0120522120001 | |----------------------------| | 邮箱: guoxue @ | | 卢璇 | | 资格编号: S0120524050004 | | 邮箱: luxuan @ | | 研究助理 | 市场表现 公用事业 沪深300 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 2023-2024 配额分配方案出炉,履约 周期缩短市场活跃度或将提高 环保与公用事业周报 投资要点: 行情回顾:本周各板块涨跌不一,申万(2021)公用事业行业指数上涨 1%,环保行 业指数下跌 1%。公用事业板块中水电涨幅较大,涨幅为 2.3%,环保板块中园林 涨幅较大,上涨 6.9%。 行业动态 环保: (1)建设污水处理绿色低碳标杆厂,推广复制绿色经验。国家发展改革委办公 厅、住房城乡建设部办公厅发布关于开展污水处理绿色低碳标杆厂遴选工作的通 知。通知 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 公用事业 2024 年 07 月 06 日 公用事业 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 郭雪 资格编号:S0120522120001 邮箱:guoxue@tebon.com.cn 卢璇 资格编号:S0120524050004 邮箱:luxuan@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 刘正 邮箱:liuzheng3@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 公用事业 沪深300 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《环保与公用事业周报-1-5 月全国 发电设备利用小时数同比减少 59 小 时,生态环境部发文加速燃煤锅炉超 低排放改造》,2024.6.30 2.《ESG 周报:《A 股 ESG 评级报 告 2024》出炉:沪深 300 公司 95% 已发布相关报告》,2024.6.29 3.《环保与公用事业周报-国家发改 委公布 1-5 月发用电情况,全社会用 电量同比增长 8.6%》,2024.6.23 4.《ESG 周报:中国人民银行:支 持上海打造国际绿色金融枢纽,推动 人民币 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度 有色金属 2024 年 07 月 05 日 有色金属 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号:S0120523070003 邮箱:gaojq@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 有色金属 沪深300 -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《金诚信(603979.SH):矿服为 基 , 铜 磷 资 源 开 辟 新 增 长 》 , 2024.6.25 2.《有色金属周报:美 5 月零售数据 不及预期&前值下修,降息预期有望 持续推动贵金属上涨》,2024.6.23 3.《南山铝业(600219.SH):上游 印尼氧化铝项目持续扩张,下游坚定 发力高端铝产品》,2024.6.19 4.《有色金属周报:美核心 CPI 回落 至三年低位,持续看好贵金属投资机 会》,2024.6.16 5.《贵金属:降息预期调整,关注美 元相对变化》,2024.6.13 黄金:经 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场动态跟踪 2024 年 07 月 05 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|-------|------------------------|-------|----------------------------| | 海外市场动态跟踪 | | | | | | | | | | 法国选举：欧洲一体化的裂痕 | | 证券分析师 | | ——精卫填"海"系列（八） | | | | | | | | | 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 背景：法国国民议会选举首轮投票结果显示极右翼势力领先。欧洲五年一度的议会 选举于 6 月 6 日启动，最新的数据显示议会右倾趋势明显，且左右翼显著分化。 由于法国执政党所获支持率远低于极右翼政党，法国总统马克龙当晚宣布解散国 民议会，并将议会选举提前至 2024 年 6 ...

Group 1: Characteristics of Social Financing (社融) - Recent trends in social financing show a "two declines and two increases" pattern, with a decrease in real estate-related credit and platform debt, while government financing and the proportion of "five major articles" have increased significantly[2]. - The proportion of real estate-related credit in social financing has decreased, reflecting a macro-level "de-leveraging" in the real estate sector[2]. - Government financing has been on the rise, with the issuance of government bonds and local government debts significantly increasing their share in social financing[2]. Group 2: Limitations and Adjustments of Social Financing Indicators - Social financing indicators have limitations, particularly in reflecting structural changes during economic transitions, as seen in the similar growth rates of social financing in 2019 and 2022 despite significant structural economic changes[18]. - The adjustments to the social financing metrics over time reflect its "timeliness," with three major adjustments made in 2018 and 2019 to include asset-backed securities and government bonds, enhancing its relevance to current economic conditions[17]. - The current social financing growth rate has been declining, with a notable drop to below 9% in March 2023, indicating challenges in maintaining growth amid economic restructuring[46]. Group 3: Future Directions for Social Financing - Future expansions of social financing metrics should focus on direct financing, which could better reflect the financing needs of the real economy[72]. - The ongoing structural adjustments in the economy necessitate a reevaluation of how social financing is utilized to better align with market expectations and effective demand[46].

证券研究报告 | 行业深度 计算机 行业投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) 2024年7月4日 从技术路径,纵观国产大模型逆袭之路 0 证券分析师 姓名:陈涵泊 资格编号:S0120524040004 邮箱:chenhb3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 姓名:王思 邮箱:wangsi@tebon.com.cn 核心逻辑 海外大模型龙头轮番抢占性能第一宝座,比拼整体性能和多模态交互。 大模型的宝座三次更迭:初代GPT-4o自我革命,持续刷新综合性能;二代谷歌Gemini更极限的上下文理解、更低延时; 翘楚Claude3.5聚焦视觉和交互体验。 大模型高地争夺:多模态的理解和响应,原生多模态技术比拼。大模型的效果取决于多模态理解与生成,毫秒级响应, 更先进的视觉与音频理解能力,智能感知语气与语态。端到端原生多模态技术、统一神经网络,是竞争的主要角力点。 大模型的比较维度升级:从模型到叠加终端,跨设备的使用效果体验。如谷歌推出AI Agent项目Astra模型,可以手 机、眼睛镜头对准身边的物品,并向Project Astra提出一些疑问,它几乎能做到零延时地准确回答。 国内大模型逆袭之路:聚焦长文本,降价迭代提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [1]. Core Insights - The report discusses the competitive landscape of large models, highlighting the rapid iteration and performance improvements among leading overseas companies such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic [2][4]. - It emphasizes the domestic large model manufacturers' focus on long text processing and price reduction to enhance competitiveness against international counterparts [2][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Leaders Competing for Dominance - The report notes that OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic are rapidly iterating their models, with significant advancements in performance and capabilities [5][23]. - OpenAI's GPT-4o has achieved new highs in text reasoning and multimodal capabilities, outperforming previous models [7][9]. - Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro has doubled its context window to 2 million tokens, enhancing its ability to process complex information [11][12]. - Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet focuses on visual and interactive experiences, showing significant improvements in various benchmarks [17][20]. 2. Domestic Large Models' Path to Success - Domestic manufacturers are concentrating on long text processing, with models like Tongyi Qianwen and KIMI showing competitive potential against GPT [2][48]. - The report identifies three main challenges in long text processing: attention mechanism complexity, context memory, and length constraints [2][48]. - Price reductions by leading companies are accelerating iterations and enhancing future competitiveness [2][48]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic large model manufacturers such as iFlytek, SenseTime, and CloudWalk Technology [2]. - It also recommends looking at application targets that integrate leading large models, including Kingsoft Office and Wondershare Technology [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, driven by high-quality development and new opportunities in the sector [2]. Core Insights - High-quality development is emphasized as a primary task for building a modern socialist country, with policies continuously supporting this direction since early 2024 [16][17]. - A new round of large-scale equipment updates and consumer product replacements is expected to stimulate demand, particularly in the automotive, home appliance, and home decoration sectors [3][16]. - The market size for equipment updates and consumer product replacements is projected to exceed 5 trillion yuan annually [17]. Summary by Sections 1. Large-Scale Equipment Updates & Consumer Product Replacements - Policies from central to local levels are promoting a new round of equipment updates and consumer product replacements, aiming to reduce logistics costs and enhance resource recycling [16][19]. - The investment scale in key sectors like industry, agriculture, and transportation is expected to grow by over 25% compared to 2023 [16][17]. - The report highlights significant increases in the recycling of old vehicles and appliances, with projections indicating a doubling of scrapped vehicles by 2027 [16][19]. 2. Demand Boost from Equipment Updates - The report outlines specific areas where equipment updates will drive demand, including power equipment, mining equipment, and high-end manufacturing [20][22]. - Key materials such as high-temperature alloys for nuclear power and soft magnetic materials for photovoltaic devices are identified as critical for meeting the growing demand in these sectors [23][26]. - The wind power sector is also highlighted, with significant growth in installed capacity and demand for high-purity iron components [28][30]. 3. New Quality Productivity and Emerging Industries - The concept of "new quality productivity" is linked to the development of emerging industries, including low-altitude economy, AI, humanoid robots, and hydrogen energy [4][16]. - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025, with significant opportunities for upstream raw material and product development [4]. - The AI sector is expected to see rapid growth in computing power, benefiting companies involved in AI chip materials [4]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies in various sectors that are expected to benefit from the outlined trends, including those involved in equipment updates and consumer product replacements [4][16]. - Companies such as Zhongzhou Special Materials, Xiamen Tungsten, and Nanshan Aluminum are highlighted as key players in the equipment update and recycling sectors [4][16].

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 传媒 2024 年 07 月 04 日 传媒 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 马笑 资格编号:S0120522100002 邮箱:maxiao@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 传媒 沪深300 -44% -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 资料来源:德邦研究所、聚源数据 相关研究 1.《传媒互联网海外 7 月金股》, 2024.6.28 2.《传媒互联网行业周报:哔哩哔哩 新游《三国:谋定天下》流水超预期, Runway 推出了新的视频生成基础 模型 Gen-3 Alpha》,2024.6.24 3.《全球影视行业复苏向好-博纳影 业(001330.SZ)首次覆盖:深耕电 影 25 载势头正强劲,储备丰富 AI 赋 能业绩更可期》,2024.6.19 4.《传媒互联网行业周报:大厂与创 业公司在 6 月齐聚 AI 视频战场,第 二十六届上海国际电影节金爵盛典 举行》,2024.6.16 5.《传媒互联网行业周报:快手发布 可灵大模型,微软举行 Xbox 游戏发 布会》,2024.6.11 6 月游戏行业点评: ...