0 证券研究报告 | 行业深度 计算机 行业投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) 2024年7月23日 三个方向,带领计算机走出困境 ——计算机行业2024年中期策略 证券分析师 姓名:陈涵泊 资格编号:S0120524040004 邮箱:chenhb3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 姓名:王思 邮箱:wangsi@tebon.com.cn 姓名:李杨玲 资格编号:S0120524060005 邮箱:liyl@tebon.com.cn 核心逻辑 2024H1回顾:估值处于底部降本增效或带动行业走出低谷。24年受市场情绪负面影响,计算机板块领跌市场。从估值 看,截至24年7月19日,计算机指数(申万)PE、PS(TTM)分别为32.6、2.4倍,处于近十年的1.48%、2.14%分位数 水平,充分具备向上弹性空间;从业绩看,24Q1行业降本增效已有成效,收入稳健增长,利润端或将逐步走出低谷。 AI主线:大模型+算力双轮驱动,AI趋势持续上行。大模型:海内外大模型,实现从云侧至端侧的全面革新。云侧方 面,海外朝多模态交互方向持续迭代,国内通过聚焦长文本和降价吸引开发者的方式驱动大模型"飞轮迭代";端侧 方面,大模 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 计算机 2024 年 07 月 23 日 计算机 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 陈涵泊 资格编号:S0120524040004 邮箱:chenhb3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱:wangsi@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 计算机 沪深300 -44% -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 数据来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《微软蓝屏,信创自主可控再掀浪 潮》,2024.7.21 2.《萝卜快跑验证自动驾驶未来已 来》,2024.7.14 3.《WAIC2024:从大模型到具身智 能》,2024.7.7 4.《从技术路径,纵观国产大模型逆 袭之路》,2024.7.4 5.《持续关注政策+投资双重催化下 的电力 IT》,2024.7.3 DRG/DIP 改革关注医疗 IT 拐点 机遇 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 国家医保局持续推进 DRG/DIP 支付方式改革,新版支付方案或在 2024 年全面落 地。2024 年 7 月 23 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.227 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.452 billion yuan, up 32.69% year-on-year [6] - The company's platform strategy is progressing, with significant growth in sales from key domestic clients, including sales increases of 23.9% for Wanjie, 35.1% for Ideal, and 57.6% for BYD in Q2 2024 [6] - The company is investing 5 billion yuan to establish a research and production base for robotic electric drive systems, which is expected to drive long-term growth [6] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.0 billion yuan, 3.61 billion yuan, and 4.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.3, 18.5, and 15.5 [7] - Revenue forecasts for the company are 19.701 billion yuan for 2023, 27.975 billion yuan for 2024, 34.510 billion yuan for 2025, and 40.721 billion yuan for 2026 [9] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 23.0% in 2023, decreasing slightly to 22.0% by 2026 [9]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 有色金属 2024 年 07 月 21 日 有色金属 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号:S0120524050001 邮箱:kangyh@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 有色金属 沪深300 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 1.《有色金属周报:中报行情启动, 金银铜铝表现俱佳》,2024.7.14 2.《铜行业跟踪:24Q2 铜价创新高, Q3TC 骤 降 , 供 需 持 续 紧 张 》, 2024.7.11 3.《明泰铝业(601677.SH):发布 6 月经营快报,24H1 预告业绩大增》, 2024.7.10 4.《紫金矿业(601899.SH):24H1 业绩预告同比大增,量价齐升》, 2024.7.9 5.《南山铝业(600219.SH)半年报 预告点评:氧化铝价格大幅上涨,公 司业绩同比大幅增长》,2024.7 ...

房地产 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 金文曦 资格编号:S0120522100001 邮箱:jinwx@tebon.com.cn 蔡萌萌 资格编号:S0120524050003 邮箱:caimm@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 房地产 沪深300 -39% -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《滨江集团(002244.SZ)首次覆 盖报告-区域聚焦强品质,业绩稳健 显韧性》,2024.7.17 2.《24 年 1-6 月国家统计局房地产数 据追踪-销售降幅略有收窄,竣工面 积累计同比降幅扩大》,2024.7.16 3.《房地产行业周报(2024.7.8-7.12) -30 大中城市成交环比回落,保障性 住房再贷款稳步推进》,2024.7.15 4.《房地产行业周报(2024.7.1-7.5) -土地资产盘活专项基金设立,7 月首 周多地成交回落》,2024.7.8 5. 《 房 地 产 行 业 周 报 (2024.6.24-6.28)-北京楼市新政落 地,24H1 百强房企销售降幅收窄》, 202 ...

姓名 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|----------|-------------------------------------------------|-------| | 宏观专题 | 如何理解 | 2024 年 7 月 22 日 \n"贸易顺差不顺收" | | | | | | | | | | ABC 系列之二 | | | 证券分析师 | | | | [Table_Summary] 摘要： 事件：2023 年海关总署发布的贸易差额为 8,221.0 亿美元，同期涉外贸易收付款 顺差仅为 4,233.6 亿美元，差额接近 4,000 亿美元；两组数据的背离成为市场关注 焦点，本文旨在探讨数据差额背后的原因。 "贸易顺差不顺收"的负缺口需要重点关注。自 2012 年以来，海关统计上统计的 贸易顺差与实际外汇收入数据，出现明显的偏差。由于市场对海关统计的进出口差 额以及银行代客涉外收付款差额无法相配存在一些争 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------|--------------------------|-------| | 海外市场点评 | | | | | | | 拜登退选，特朗普交易提速 | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件解读：拜登退选是"情理之中，意料之外"，目前民主党内部对候选人意见并 不统一。我们认为拜登此次退选主要是民主党内部压力所致，特朗普枪击事件发生 之后的这一周，民主党对拜登退选的呼声渐增，截止退选当天已有超过 30 名民主 党议员公开呼吁拜登退出竞选。退选当天，拜登在社交媒体上发表声明称，他原本 打算寻求连任，但为了民主党和国家的最佳利益，他决定退出竞选，并专注于履行 总统剩余任期内的职责。结合拜登 81 岁的高龄，以及近日新冠检测阳性引发更多 对其健康的担忧，此次的退选实属"情理之中"。 后续推演：民主党或选"背锅侠"，特朗普赢面扩大。由于拜登在党代会之前退选， 民主党需要重新开始提名和竞选，最终获多数投票 ...

Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70%, indicating a clear intention to reduce interest rates[1] - The LPR for both 1-year and over 5-year terms has been reduced by 10 basis points, aligning with the reverse repo rate cut[1][19] Market Implications - The reduction in the reverse repo rate is expected to lead to a decrease in the funding rate DR007, likely falling to 1.70%, down from 1.80%[7] - The bond market is anticipated to benefit from this rate cut, although long-term bond yields may face upward pressure if credit expansion occurs[7][30] Economic Context - The adjustment in monetary policy is a response to macroeconomic pressures, including weak credit demand and low prices, aiming to stabilize economic growth[6][4] - The PBOC's decision reflects a shift in focus from quantity to price in its market operations, emphasizing the importance of interest rate adjustments[3][16] Future Outlook - The market is expected to see increased borrowing operations and adjustments in the scale and pace of bond issuance, which could influence interest rates in the medium to long term[8][30] - The RMB exchange rate may experience depreciation pressure due to the PBOC's rate cut, but significant devaluation is not anticipated, with expectations that it will remain below 7.34[21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that Q3 marks the peak season for overseas retail, with Amazon's Prime Day sales increasing by 11% year-on-year [1][15] - The report emphasizes the structural differentiation within the retail sector, with a focus on high-growth opportunities in cross-border e-commerce and cosmetics [5][10] Summary by Sections Investment Perspective - The overseas retail sector is entering a peak season, with a focus on high-growth cross-border e-commerce [10] - Companies like Saiwei Times, Zhiou Technology, and Anker Innovation are highlighted as key players in the cross-border e-commerce space [10] Weekly Topic: Amazon Prime Day Performance and Tariff Impacts - Amazon's Prime Day, held on July 16-17, 2024, is projected to generate $14.2 billion in sales, reflecting an 11% increase year-on-year [15][20] - The event saw significant sales growth in categories such as back-to-school products (+216%) and children's clothing (+165%) [21] - Concerns regarding potential tariff increases on exports to the U.S. have emerged, prompting some sellers to consider relocating their supply chains to Southeast Asia [22][24] Company Announcements and News Review - Notable company announcements include Pop Mart's positive earnings forecast, expecting a revenue increase of no less than 55% for H1 2024 [4] - The report notes that the retail sector is experiencing a recovery, with a 3.7% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to June 2024 [4] Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Key companies in the cosmetics sector, such as Juzhibio and Perleya, are projected to see significant profit growth, with Juzhibio's net profit estimates for 2024-2026 revised upwards to 1.894 billion, 2.422 billion, and 3.010 billion respectively [12][13] - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong overseas expansion plans, such as Miniso, which is expected to see a recovery in same-store sales and successful overseas store openings [5][10]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 商贸零售 2024 年 07 月 22 日 商贸零售 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号:S0120523070004 邮箱:yidy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 商贸零售 沪深300 -44% -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 数据来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《乖宝宠物(301498.SZ):发布 3 年激励计划,看好国货龙头份额持续 提升》,2024.7.9 2.《结构性分化,布局中报寻找α— —美妆&零售板块 Q2 总结及 Q3 策 略》,2024.7.4 3.《——美妆&零售板块周报 0616- 周大福业绩拆解:同店恢复与展店提 效 , 关 注 单 店 效 能 持 续 爬 升 》, 2024.6.16 4.《——美妆&零售板块周报 0610: 如何解读近期海运费涨价,跨境卖家 应对几何?》,2024.0610 5.《——美妆&零售板块周报 0602: 政策加码海外仓发展,跨境电商必争 之 地 , 持 续 关 注 出 海 链 公 司 》 ...