| --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------| | 宏观点评 | | 2024 年 07 月 16 日 \n增长低于预期，结构表现延续 | | | | | | | | 月经济数据点评 | | 证券分析师 | | | 相关研究 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：Q2 实际 GDP4.7%，低于市场一致预期 5.1%及我们 5%的预测，预测 偏差来自两个方面，其一是支出法下广义财政支出偏慢导致最终销售支出与社零 之间的政府消费偏弱，其二是生产法下服务业受极端天气、雨涝灾害等因素影响较 难评估。剔除两方面因素，各项经济数据及结构表现与我们预测相对一致，以"制 造立国"应对"去地产化"和所谓的"去中国化"依旧是宏观数据的主线逻辑： 其一，1-6 月，制造业投资维持强势表现达到 9 ...

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company's revenue increased from 31.39 billion yuan in 2022 to 36.28 billion yuan in 2023, representing a growth rate of 15.57% [4] - EBITDA slightly decreased from 2.33 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.32 billion yuan in 2023 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose from 649 million yuan in 2022 to 746 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 14.94% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) increased from 0.63 yuan in 2022 to 0.73 yuan in 2023 [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio improved from 20.8 in 2022 to 18.1 in 2023 [4] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company adjusted its business classification in 2024, with the express business accounting for 7.5% of revenue and the freight business accounting for 89% [43] - The gross margin for the freight business was slightly higher than that of the express business, with a convergence trend observed [45] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The road transport market in China reached a scale of 5.26 trillion yuan in 2023, with the less-than-truckload (LTL) transport market accounting for approximately 31.7% [77] - The LTL transport market is projected to grow to 1.80 trillion yuan by 2027 [77] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs while expanding its market presence through collaboration with JD Logistics [3][45] - The integration of JD Logistics' resources is expected to enhance the company's service capabilities and operational efficiency [106] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to the evolving logistics landscape driven by e-commerce growth and supply chain upgrades [51] - The company aims to leverage its extensive network and operational capabilities to capture growth opportunities in the LTL market [86] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a stable gross margin, with a slight decline in 2023 due to increased transportation costs associated with the integration of JD Logistics [45] - The company has achieved significant improvements in customer service metrics, including a reduction in complaint resolution time and an increase in customer satisfaction rankings [71][110] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the growth prospects for the LTL market? - The LTL market is expected to see continued growth driven by changes in the commercial landscape and supply chain upgrades, with a projected market size of 1.80 trillion yuan by 2027 [77] Question: How is the integration with JD Logistics progressing? - The integration is enhancing operational efficiency and service capabilities, allowing the company to better meet customer demands [106] Question: What measures are being taken to improve customer service? - The company is focusing on optimizing its logistics processes and enhancing customer service through technology and improved operational practices [110]

服务业生产指数边际回落。6 月服务业生产指数当月同比增速较上月下行 0.10 个百分点至 4.70%，边际回落，累计同比增速较上月回落 0.10 个百分点至 4.90%。 5 / 10 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 固定收益点评 2. 制造韧性逻辑不变，基建增速与实物工作量表现相背 全口径基建增速上行，增速与实物工作量之间表现相背。1-6 月全口径基建投 资累计同比 7.70%，较上月上行 1.02 个百分点，测算当月同比为 10.18%，较前 月明显上行 6.39 个百分点，或源于财政资金投放加快。但我们从 6 月的 PPI 数据 来看，同比增速跌幅收窄但是今年以来增速始终在负向区间，6 月环比增速也表现 下行，或表明基建投资推动的工业需求有限，实物工作量未有趋势改善。 固定收益点评 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 有 色 金 属 加 工 非 金 属 制 品 黑 色 金 属 加 工 化 学 原 料 及 制 品 农 副 食 品 加 工 运 输 设 备 通 用 设 备 专 用 设 备 电 气 机 械 及 器 材 汽 车 医 药 电 子 设 备 纺 织 橡 胶 和 塑 料 制 品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.4 to 2.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 124% to 133%. The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is between 135 to 155 million yuan, indicating a significant turnaround from a loss in the previous year [4][5] - In Q2 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 1.563 to 1.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153% to 169%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 87% to 99%. The net profit for Q2 is expected to be between 121 to 141 million yuan, with a net profit margin projected to be between 7.3% and 9.0%, a substantial increase from 1.67% in Q1 2024 [4][5] - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily driven by the recovery in the smart security and smartphone sectors, with new product launches enhancing competitiveness and market demand [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 5.767 billion yuan, 7.449 billion yuan, and 9.222 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to be 427 million yuan, 626 million yuan, and 838 million yuan for the same years [6][9] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 20.0% in 2023 to 24.3% in 2024, and further to 25.2% by 2026 [7][9] - The company has introduced several new products in 2024, including a 50MP camera sensor, which is expected to support continued growth in the smartphone CIS business [5][6] Investment Recommendations - Based on the strong performance in H1 2024, the report revises the profit forecasts upward for 2024-2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 53, 36, and 27 times [5][6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业深度 教育 2024 年 07 月 16 日 教育 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 李旭东 资格编号:S0120524020002 邮箱:lixd@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 教育 沪深300 -51% -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《教育行业专题:国内各学段教育 的人口基本面讨论》,2024.6.20 2.《招录市场需求强劲,华图中公扬 帆起航》,2024.4.2 教育行业专题:国内教育经费配 置结构研究 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 国内教育经费概览:国内教育经费由五个大类构成,其中国家财政性教育经费占比 八成,反映国家财政对教育的投入水平;事业收入(主要为学杂费)占经费收入接 近 20%,反映学校自身创收能力。2022 年教育经费达 6.13 万亿元/同比+6.0%, 2012-2022 年 CAGR 为 7.9%。 多年来政策追求国家财政性教育经费/GDP 比重达 4%的目标。1993 年,《中国教 育改革和发展 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 煤炭开采 2024 年 07 月 16 日 煤炭 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 薛磊 资格编号:S0120524020001 邮箱:xuelei@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱:xiejy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 煤炭开采 沪深300 -22% -11% 0% 11% 22% 33% 44% 55% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报:动力煤价止跌反弹, 黑色利润开启修复》,2024.4.14 2.《煤炭行业点评:山西省煤炭资源 税上调落地,焦煤价格支撑更强》, 2024.4.12 3.《煤炭周报:淡季煤价磨底, 关注 复苏斜率》,2024.4.7 4.《煤炭周报:煤价震荡偏弱,静待 需求复苏》,2024.3.31 5.《山煤国际点评:利润分红下降, 未来有望恢复》,2024.3.30 煤炭行业月报:国内生产逐步恢 复,旺季需求值得期待 [Table_Summary ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 房地产 2024 年 07 月 16 日 房地产 优于大市(维持) 销售降幅略有收窄,竣工面积累计 同比降幅扩大 24 年 1-6 月国家统计局房地产数据追踪 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 证券分析师 金文曦 资格编号:S0120522100001 邮箱:jinwx@tebon.com.cn 蔡萌萌 资格编号:S0120524050003 邮箱:caimm@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 房地产 沪深300 -39% -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《房地产行业周报(2024.7.8-7.12) -30 大中城市成交环比回落,保障性 住房再贷款稳步推进》,2024.7.15 2.《房地产行业周报(2024.7.1-7.5) -土地资产盘活专项基金设立,7 月首 周多地成交回落》,2024.7.8 3. 《 房 地 产 行 业 周 报 (2024.6.24-6.28)-北京楼市新政落 地,24H1 百强房企销售 ...

3. 宏观数据观察 地产：从商品房来看，成交面积同环比仍处于下行区间，二手房挂牌同环比 也继续下行；从土地来看，土地成交和供应面积同比涨多跌少，后续政策落地效 果仍需观察。 物价：生活资料中仅猪肉价格同比继续上行，其余多为下行，预计 7 月猪价 继续上涨，供给加速减少+二次育肥+高温高密度养殖+猪企高负债下主动去化是 核心支撑。 21 / 44 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 其二是美日利差和美元兑日元汇率的背离。今年 5 月开始，美日利差开始持 续走弱，从 5 月初的 3.7%，下行至 7 月 11 日的 3.1%。然而，美元兑日元在 6 月 末再破 160。近日受美联储降息预期扰动，美元兑日元承压。美日汇率和美日利 差的背离说明了什么？我们认为，美日利差的收窄背后是日债收益率逐步上升、 伴随着美债收益率的下行，首先一方面美日货币政策的背离，日央行逐步推动国 内货币政策正常化，存在进一步加息可能，美联储则在选择何时降息；其次，日元 加息预期背后是日本经济和通胀预期未来可能有所改善，日本股市的靓丽表现也 有反映，在日本国内基本面改善的背景下，大量日本海外资本或将回流促进了日 元进一步走弱。综合来看，我 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 房地产 2024 年 07 月 16 日 房地产 优于大市(维持) 销售降幅略有收窄,竣工面积累计 同比降幅扩大 24 年 1-6 月国家统计局房地产数据追踪 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 证券分析师 金文曦 资格编号:S0120522100001 邮箱:jinwx@tebon.com.cn 蔡萌萌 资格编号:S0120524050003 邮箱:caimm@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 房地产 沪深300 -39% -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《房地产行业周报(2024.7.8-7.12) -30 大中城市成交环比回落,保障性 住房再贷款稳步推进》,2024.7.15 2.《房地产行业周报(2024.7.1-7.5) -土地资产盘活专项基金设立,7 月首 周多地成交回落》,2024.7.8 3. 《 房 地 产 行 业 周 报 (2024.6.24-6.28)-北京楼市新政落 地,24H1 百强房企销售 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 汽车 2024 年 07 月 16 日 汽车 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 邓健全 资格编号:S0120523100001 邮箱:dengjq@tebon.com.cn 赵悦媛 资格编号:S0120523100002 邮箱:zhaoyy5@tebon.com.cn 赵启政 资格编号:S0120523120002 邮箱:zhaoqz@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 汽车 沪深300 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《6 月乘用车销量环比提升,以旧 换新政策效果逐步显现》,2024.7.8 2.《特斯拉 Q2 交付量超预期,FSD 入华持续推进》,2024.7.7 3.《长安汽车(000625.SZ):6 月深 蓝 G318 正式上市,阿维塔将首批搭 载华为乾崑 ADS 3.0》,2024.7.4 4.《雅迪控股(01585.HK):政策+ 市场驱动行业加速集中,全球龙头持 续成长》,2024.7.4 5.《松原股份(300893.SZ):202 ...