| --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 50 basis points, maintaining the federal funds target rate at 4.75%-5.00%, aligning with market expectations[3] - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is expected to drop to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% by the end of 2025, indicating a total reduction of 100 basis points[4] Economic Outlook - The unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2024 has increased from 4.0% to 4.4% since the June meeting[5] - Economic growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down from 2.1% to 2.0%, while the PCE inflation forecast has decreased from 2.6% to 2.3%[5] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index experienced a slight decline, while gold and U.S. stocks saw minor increases[6] - However, after Fed Chair Powell's comments, Treasury yields rose again, with the 10-year yield fluctuating from 3.70% to 3.65% and then back to 3.72%[6] Inflation and Future Projections - The decline in oil prices has played a crucial role in bringing the U.S. CPI below 3%, but core CPI components remain resilient, making further declines challenging[7] - The future trajectory of Treasury yields will depend on the Fed's actions in upcoming meetings and the performance of key economic indicators such as inflation and unemployment[7] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with U.S. inflation being more resilient than expected, uncertain economic recovery, and potential underperformance in the job market[8]

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 [行业: 日期: Table_Industry] 机械 shzqdatemark 2024年09月19日 刘阳东 [Table_Author] 021-53686144 liuyangdong@shzq.com : S0870523070002 吴婷婷 021-53686158 wutingting@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870523080001 分析师: Tel: E-mail: SAC编号 分析师: Tel: E-mail: [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -26% -23% -19% -16% -12% -9% -5% -2% 2% 09/23 11/23 02/24 04/24 07/24 09/24 机械设备 沪深300 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《8 月挖机出口销量转正，看好工程机械板 块》 ——2024 年 09 月 11 日 《优必 选 24H1 营收增长近 9 成，1X Technologies 发布全新一代家务机器人 NEO》 ——2024 年 09 月 05 日 《挖机 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 大模型 Scaling Law 开启新范式，端侧 智能加速落地 ——计算机行业周报（2024.9.9—2024.9.13） [行业: 日期: Table_Industry] 计算机 shzqdatemark 2024年09月18日 [Table_Author] 吴婷婷 021-53686158 wutingting@shzq.com : S0870523080001 | --- | |-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -35% -30% -24% -19% -14% -9% -3% 2% 7% 09/23 11/23 02/24 04/24 07/24 09/24 计算机 沪深300 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《华为全联接大会将至，政策加速信创产 业推进》 ——2024 年 09 月 10 日 《AI 大模型加速迭代，算力产业链持续向 | --- | --- | |------------------------ ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 [行业Table_Industry] : 医药生物 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年09月17日 王真真 [Table_Author] 021 -53686246 wangzhenzhen@shzq.co m : S0870524030001 尤靖宜 021-53686160 youjingyi@shzq.com : S0870524090004 分析师: Tel: E-mail: SAC编号 分析师: Tel: E-mail: SAC编号 [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -26% -22% -18% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 09/23 11/23 02/24 04/24 07/24 09/24 医药生物 沪深300 | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 游研发积极性》 | ——2024 年 09 月 01 日 《 ...

Group 1: Trade Performance - In August 2024, China's total goods trade value reached 3.75 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%[8] - Exports amounted to 2.2 trillion RMB, growing by 8.4%, while imports were 1.55 trillion RMB, showing no growth[8] - The trade surplus for August was 649.34 billion RMB, equivalent to 910.22 billion USD, marking a significant increase from 846.47 billion USD in July[18] Group 2: Export Dynamics - Exports to the EU and Japan saw a notable rebound, while exports to the US declined[9] - The export of automobiles surged by over 30%, indicating strong demand in this sector[15] - Labor-intensive goods, excluding toys, showed improvement, reflecting a recovery in overseas demand[9] Group 3: Import Trends - Imports experienced a decline, with growth rates for major imported goods, except for soybeans, automobiles, and steel, showing a downward trend[9] - The overall import value decreased, contributing to the weaker import performance in August[9] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by policy incentives and economic resilience[5] - High trade surpluses are anticipated to stabilize China's foreign reserves and support the RMB in international markets[23] - The capital market is projected to experience a steady recovery amidst fluctuations, driven by restored market confidence[22]

Inflation Data - August CPI year-on-year increased by 2.5%, consistent with market expectations, down from 2.9% in the previous month[4] - Core CPI year-on-year remained stable at 3.2%, matching both market expectations and the previous value[4] - Month-on-month CPI adjusted for seasonal factors increased by 0.2%, in line with expectations[4] Market Reactions - On the day of the data release, 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields changed by +3 basis points and 0 basis points, respectively[5] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 88% as of September 12[5] Price Trends - Energy prices saw a significant decline, with month-on-month growth dropping from 0.0% to -0.8%[5] - Core goods prices decreased slightly, with used car and truck prices showing a reduced decline from -2.3% to -1.0%[5] - Core service prices increased from +0.3% to +0.4%, driven by rising rent prices[5] Economic Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue to cool slowly, prompting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adjust its dot plot and initiate a rate cut cycle[5] - The long-term trajectory of U.S. Treasury yields will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's future rate cut schedule[5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 [行业Table_Industry] : 食品饮料 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年09月17日 [Table_Author] 分析师: 王慧林 Tel: 15951919467 E-mail: wanghuilin@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870524040001 分析师: 赖思琪 Tel: 021-53686180 E-mail: laisiqi@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870524090001 分析师: 袁家岗 Tel: 02153686249 E-mail: yuanjiagang@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870524090003 [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -34% -29% -25% -21% -17% -12% -8% -4% 0% 09/23 11/23 02/24 04/24 07/24 09/24 食品饮料 沪深300 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《中秋在即，关注需求趋势 ——食品饮料 行业周报 20240902-20240908》 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 珀莱雅管理层换届落地，复锐肉毒素产 品中国获批 ——美容护理行业周报（20240909-0913） [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [➢Table_Summary] 主要观点 8 月抖音美妆同比+22%，品牌集中度有提升趋势 根据青眼情报数据，8月抖音化妆品类目（护肤、彩妆/香水、洗发护 发、身体护理清洁）GMV超198.35亿元，同比增长22.27%，环比增 长27.75%。（1）护肤类目GMV超117.06亿元，同比增长25.21%，环 比增长42.48%。品牌集中度进一步提升，TOP20品牌的GMV占护肤 类目的30.08%，环比提升7.52个百分点；TOP20品牌中国产品牌 GMV占比为51.24%，环比下滑。国货品牌中韩束、欧诗漫、珀莱雅进 入前五，GMV分 别 超 过4.47/2.39/2.27亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长6.5%、 74.4%、29%。此外薇诺娜和自然堂GMV高增，同比分别达到175.6% 和171.5%。（2）彩妆类目GMV超48.98亿元，同比增长11.54%，环比 上涨10.11%。其中国产品牌数量占比达75%，国产品牌GM ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 珀莱雅管理层换届落地，复锐肉毒素产 品中国获批 ——美容护理行业周报（20240909-0913） [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [➢Table_Summary] 主要观点 8 月抖音美妆同比+22%，品牌集中度有提升趋势 根据青眼情报数据，8月抖音化妆品类目（护肤、彩妆/香水、洗发护 发、身体护理清洁）GMV超198.35亿元，同比增长22.27%，环比增 长27.75%。（1）护肤类目GMV超117.06亿元，同比增长25.21%，环 比增长42.48%。品牌集中度进一步提升，TOP20品牌的GMV占护肤 类目的30.08%，环比提升7.52个百分点；TOP20品牌中国产品牌 GMV占比为51.24%，环比下滑。国货品牌中韩束、欧诗漫、珀莱雅进 入前五，GMV分 别 超 过4.47/2.39/2.27亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长6.5%、 74.4%、29%。此外薇诺娜和自然堂GMV高增，同比分别达到175.6% 和171.5%。（2）彩妆类目GMV超48.98亿元，同比增长11.54%，环比 上涨10.11%。其中国产品牌数量占比达75%，国产品牌GM ...