证券研究报告 | 2025年12月30日 2026年01月19日 策略周报 活跃资金流入，长线资金流出——1 月第 2 周立体投资策略周 报 核心结论：①1 月第 2 周，资金入市合计净流入 72 亿元，前一周流入 715 亿元。②短期情绪指标处于 05 年以来高位，长期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中 低位。③从行业角度看，以成交额占比为例，过去一周国防军工、半导体、 电力设备等热度较高。 1 月第 2 周，资金入市合计净流入 72 亿元，前一周流入 715 亿元。资金流 入方面，融资余额增加 1045 亿元，公募基金发行增加 134 亿元，ETF 净赎回 711 亿元，北上资金估算净流出 43 亿元；资金流出方面，IPO 融资规模 20 亿元，产业资本净减持 164 亿元，交易费用 169 亿元。 短期情绪指标处于 05 年以来高位。短期情绪指标主要看换手率和融资交易 占比，最近一周换手率（年化）为 682%，当前处在历史上由低到高 92%的分 位；最近一周融资交易占比为 11.29%，当前处在历史上由低到高 90%的分位。 长期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中低位。长期情绪指标主要看大类资产比价， 一看价格对比 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月17日 2026年01月18日 2026年01月19日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（191） 优于大市 牛价重启加速上涨，看好肉牛周期反转 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。2026 年 1 月 16 日生猪价格 12.69 元/公斤，周环比+1.44%；7kg 仔猪价格约 309.05 元/头，周环比+22.00%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。2026 年 1 月 16 日，鸡苗价格 3.07 元/羽，周环比+0.00%；毛鸡价格 7.52 元/公斤，周环比+0.53%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。2026 年 1 月 15 日浙江快大 三黄鸡/青脚麻鸡/雪山草鸡斤价分别为 4.8/6.0/6.6 元，周环比分别 -2.04%/+0.00%/-8.33%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏处于高位，中期供给压力较大。2026 年 1 月 16 日， 鸡蛋主产区价格 3.60 元/斤，周环比+11.46%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好牛周期反转上行。2026 年 1 月 16 日，国 内育肥公牛出 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2025, with projected revenue of 57-60 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12%-17%. The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be between 1.95-2.20 billion yuan, indicating a significant year-on-year growth of 114%-141% [1][4]. - The company has adopted an "All in AI" strategic direction, focusing on AI battery applications across various sectors, including AI PCs, AI headphones, AI glasses, AI toys, and AI servers. The company has established partnerships with leading clients in these areas, contributing to substantial revenue growth [2][4]. - The company plans to raise up to 800 million yuan through a private placement to fund the construction of a 3GWh energy storage cell project and a production line for 32 million steel-shell stacked batteries, aligning with the increasing demand for high energy density and safety in AI-related products [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 58.5 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 2.08 billion yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.08 yuan, with a dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35.3 [4][5]. - The financial projections for 2025-2027 indicate a net profit growth of 127% in 2025, followed by 86% in 2026 and 22% in 2027. The expected revenues for these years are 58.51 billion yuan, 70.53 billion yuan, and 80.25 billion yuan, respectively [5][4]. - Key financial metrics include a projected EBIT margin of 5.5% in 2025, a return on equity (ROE) of 8.2%, and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.80 [5][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [5][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of cost fluctuations as a significant factor affecting short-term performance in the consumer goods sector, where operating costs account for approximately 70% of revenue [12][13]. - Historical analysis indicates that material cost declines typically occur during commodity bear markets or due to supply-demand changes in specific agricultural products [17][18]. - The effective transmission of cost benefits to company performance is often non-linear, influenced by market competition, demand stability, and cost control capabilities [24][25]. Summary by Sections Cost Decline Impact on Consumer Goods - Cost fluctuations are crucial for short-term performance, with material costs making up 65%-85% of operating costs [12][13]. - Cost benefits are most effectively realized when competition is stable, demand is not shrinking, and companies have strong cost management [24][25]. 2026 Cost Benefits: Sunflower Seeds and Konjac Snacks - Sunflower seed prices are expected to decline in 2026, benefiting leading companies like Qiaqia Food, which derives over 60% of its revenue from sunflower seeds [33][34]. - The konjac powder price is projected to decrease by 10%-20% in 2026, positively impacting leading companies such as Weidong Delicious and Yanjinpuzi, which have significant revenue contributions from konjac snacks [45][46]. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Qiaqia Food is expected to see a profit recovery due to lower sunflower seed costs, with projected revenues of 6,810 million in 2025 and a net profit of 382 million [44]. - Weidong Delicious is anticipated to achieve revenues of 7,403 million in 2025, with a net profit of 1,420 million, benefiting from a strong brand presence in the konjac market [56]. - Yanjinpuzi is also expected to see positive contributions to its overall margin from declining konjac powder prices, with a projected revenue increase [56].

- The report discusses the performance of various market indices, highlighting that the CSI 2000 Index performed well, with a 1.14% increase, while the SSE 50 Index fell by 0.12%[6] - The report also notes that the CSI 500 Value Index performed well among style indices, with a 1.39% increase[6] - The report provides details on the performance of different industry indices, with consumer services, petroleum and petrochemicals, and electrical equipment industries performing well, with returns of 2.50%, 2.32%, and 1.98% respectively[7] - The report highlights the performance of various concept themes, noting that the UHV, AVIC, and aero-engine concepts performed well, with returns of 6.69%, 5.64%, and 5.27% respectively[10] - The report provides data on market sentiment, noting that 103 stocks hit the daily limit up and 31 stocks hit the daily limit down, with a sealing rate of 78% and a continuous board rate of 20%[14][17] - The report discusses the flow of market funds, noting that as of January 16, 2026, the balance of margin financing and securities lending was 2.7315 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.7% of the circulating market value[19][23] - The report provides data on ETF premiums and discounts, noting that the Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Enhanced ETF had a premium of 5.47%, while the Game Media ETF had a discount of 2.98%[24][26] - The report discusses block trading premiums and discounts, noting that the average discount rate for block trades over the past six months was 6.74%, with a discount rate of 3.41% on January 16, 2026[27][29] - The report provides data on the annualized discount rates of stock index futures, noting that the annualized discount rate of the CSI 500 stock index futures main contract was 1.74%, at the 94th percentile over the past year[29][32] - The report highlights the stocks that were most frequently researched by institutions in the past week, with Dikang Holdings being researched by 97 institutions[31][33] - The report provides data on the top ten stocks with net inflows and outflows from institutional seats and Northbound funds, with Goldwind Technology and China XD Electric being the top net inflow stocks respectively[37][38][39][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [5][6][12] Core Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to recover in 2026, driven by the continuation of national subsidies and improvements in export performance. It is recommended to actively invest in leading white goods companies [1][12][18] - December retail performance for home appliances showed signs of bottoming out, with major appliances experiencing a decline of over 20% in domestic retail sales, while small appliances showed slightly better demand [1][19] - The report highlights that the U.S. home appliance retail sales saw a slight increase in November, indicating a gradual return to stable growth despite challenges such as tariffs and inflation [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Core Recommendations - Key recommendations include investing in leading companies in the white goods sector such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances. For small appliances, Stone Technology and Bear Electric are recommended [4][12][13] 2. Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - December retail performance for home appliances continued to face pressure due to high base effects, with significant declines in major appliances. However, small appliances showed relative stability, particularly in air fryers [1][19] - December exports of home appliances decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, with air conditioners facing the most significant pressure, while refrigerators and washing machines showed modest growth [2][37] - U.S. home appliance retail sales increased by 0.8% year-on-year in November, with inventory levels returning to normal [3][12] 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +0.23% this week compared to the broader market [49] - Raw material prices for copper and aluminum decreased by 0.5% and 0.7% respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices also saw a decline [51] - Shipping indices for routes to the U.S. West Coast, East Coast, and Europe showed slight increases, indicating a stabilization in shipping costs [64] 4. Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - Notable company announcements include Midea Group's ongoing efforts in overseas markets and Gree Electric's dividend distribution plans [71][72] - The report discusses the structural adjustments in the air conditioning export market and the anticipated trends for 2026, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the global supply chain [74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights the launch of the 2026 incremental renewable energy project pricing mechanism in Shanxi Province, with a bidding range of 0.2-0.32 CNY/kWh and a total bidding volume of 9.576 billion kWh, including 3.527 billion kWh from wind power and 6.049 billion kWh from solar power [2][14]. - It notes that over 26 cities in China have raised water prices in 2025, with adjustments typically ranging from 10% to 30%, driven by rising operational costs and the need for sustainable pricing mechanisms [3][17][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.57%, while the public utility index increased by 0.06% and the environmental index by 0.27% [13][22]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 0.35%, while hydropower decreased by 1.76%, and renewable energy generation rose by 1.61% [13][23]. Important Events - The Shanxi pricing mechanism for renewable energy projects has a total scale of 95.76 billion kWh, with a bidding upper limit of 0.32 CNY/kWh and a lower limit of 0.2 CNY/kWh, effective for 10 years [2][14]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][20]. - The report suggests that the nuclear power sector will maintain stable profitability, recommending companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4][20]. - In the environmental sector, it advises focusing on companies with strong cash flow in water and waste management, such as China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings [21]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Huadian International (600027.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.46 CNY for 2024 and a PE ratio of 10.1 [8]. - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ) is also rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.75 CNY for 2024 and a PE ratio of 20.8 [8]. - China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.46 CNY for 2024 and a PE ratio of 20.9 [8].

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The 30-year to 10-year government bond yield spread reached 46.2 basis points (BP) on January 16, the highest level since September 2022[1] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, signaling a dovish stance[1] - The Ministry of Finance initiated the issuance of 30-year government bonds with a competitive bidding total of 32 billion yuan, raising concerns about supply pressure for ultra-long bonds[1] Group 2: Market Performance Overview - From January 10 to January 17, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.57%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.34%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield decreased by 3.59 BP, whereas the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 BP[2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.24%, and the offshore yuan appreciated by 0.13%[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest week saw crude oil inventories rise to 44,684 million tons, an increase of 44,935 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest week recorded a rise in gold ETF holdings to 3,490 million ounces, up by 68 million ounces[3] - The dollar long position increased by 258 contracts to 17,929 contracts, while the short position rose by 157 contracts to 21,659 contracts[3] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment year-on-year change was -2.60%[5] - Retail sales year-on-year change was 1.30%[5] - Money supply (M2) growth was reported at 8.50%[5]

Group 1: Outdoor Apparel Industry - The outdoor footwear and apparel industry has maintained rapid growth since 2021, with a CAGR of 25.3% for outdoor apparel and 18.4% for outdoor footwear, projected to grow by 24.5% and 16.3% year-on-year in 2025 respectively [24][26] - Online sales of outdoor footwear are growing faster than apparel, with outdoor footwear online sales growth maintaining over 40%, while certain apparel categories like jackets and sun-protective clothing are experiencing slower growth [24][26] - Key outdoor brands such as Kailas and Berghaus are showing strong momentum, while brands like The North Face are underperforming; the market is becoming more diversified with new brands emerging [25][26] Group 2: AI Application in Computing Industry - Major international companies are focusing on AI application in vertical scenarios, with OpenAI and Anthropic launching healthcare-focused AI models, enhancing compliance and professional services [28] - Domestic companies are also advancing in AI applications, with Alibaba upgrading health services and Tencent providing comprehensive support for mini-programs, indicating a strong push towards AI integration [28] - The market for AI applications is expected to see significant growth, with predictions indicating that the GEO market will reach $24 billion globally by 2026, driven by high consumer trust in AI applications in China [30][32] Group 3: Public Utilities Industry - The public utilities sector, including electricity, gas, and water, is characterized by its "essential" nature, with stable long-term growth prospects [32] - The transition to low-carbon energy sources is accelerating, with the share of clean energy consumption expected to reach 28.6% of total energy consumption by 2024, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [32][33] - There is a growing trend of overseas funds over-allocating to the public utilities sector, with significant increases in holdings by institutional investors in this industry [33]

Group 1: Outdoor Apparel Industry - The outdoor footwear and apparel industry has maintained rapid growth since 2021, with a CAGR of 25.3% for outdoor apparel and 18.4% for outdoor footwear, projected to grow by 24.5% and 16.3% respectively in 2025 [24][26] - Online sales of outdoor footwear are growing at over 40%, while growth in outdoor apparel has slowed to low single digits since Q2 2025; specific categories like down jackets and quick-dry clothing are experiencing strong growth, with some quarterly YoY growth nearing 100% [24][26] - The industry is seeing increased competition among brands, with top brands like Kailas and Berghaus maintaining high growth through specialized product lines, while others like The North Face are underperforming; pricing trends are weakening overall, but some high-demand brands are still able to increase prices [24][26] Group 2: AI Application in Computing Industry - Major international companies are focusing on AI application in vertical scenarios, with OpenAI launching ChatGPT Health and Amazon optimizing cross-border e-commerce operations through AI [28] - Domestic companies are also advancing in AI applications, with Alibaba upgrading health services and ByteDance's Volcano Engine becoming a key AI cloud partner for major events [28] - The market for AI applications is expected to see significant growth, with predictions indicating that the GEO market will reach $24 billion globally by 2026, driven by high consumer trust in AI applications in China [30][32] Group 3: Public Utilities Industry - The public utilities sector, including electricity, gas, and water, is characterized by its "essential" nature, with stable long-term growth prospects; the transition to low-carbon energy sources is expected to increase the share of clean energy consumption to 28.6% by 2024 [32][33] - The global electricity shortage is becoming more pronounced, leading to increased electricity prices and making the sector an attractive investment area, particularly as AI development accelerates [33]