Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 436 million and 533 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 125% to 175% [4]. - After excluding the goodwill impairment impact from the Fianni handbag business, the net profit is projected to reach 607 million to 704 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 73.35% to 101.01% [4]. - For the fourth quarter, the estimated net profit is between 119 million and 216 million yuan, with a median of 167 million yuan [4]. - The company plans to open 163 new stores in 2025, bringing the total number of stores to 1,668 by year-end [4]. - The company is expected to maintain strong store expansion momentum in 2026, with franchisees showing a strong willingness to open new stores [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s fourth-quarter store efficiency continues to show good growth, although there was a slight slowdown in December due to high base effects, tax reforms, and marketing activities [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival peak season and continuous product launches, providing support for store efficiency [5]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 491 million, 628 million, and 736 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.6, 17.7, and 15.1 times [5].

公用环保 202601 第 2 期 优于大市 2025 年 1-11 月光伏/风电发电利用率同比下滑，重视"环保+资源品"投资逻辑 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 2.79%，公用事业指数上涨 2.54%，环 保指数上涨 3.88%，周相对收益率分别为-0.24%和 1.10%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 23 和第 16 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电上涨 2.40%；水电上涨 0.70%，新能源发电上涨 3.74%； 水务板块上涨 2.50%；燃气板块上涨 4.80%。 重要事件：1-11 月份，全国光伏/风电发电利用率分别为 94.8%/94.3%。电 力行业规划研究与监测预警中心公布 2025 年 11 月全国新能源并网消纳 情况，11 月光伏发电利用率 93.7%，同比-2.5pct，1-11 月光伏发电利 用率为 94.8%，同比-2.2pct；11 月风电利用率 93.1%，同比-2.7pct， 1-11 月风电利用率 94.3%，同比-2.0pct。 专题研究：从成本中心到价值创造，重视"环保+资源品"投资逻辑。过去 一年，受地缘政治紧张和供应链安全焦虑驱 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [1]. Core Insights - OpenAI has launched ChatGPT Health, marking the beginning of a new era in AI-driven healthcare. This product allows users to connect their medical records and health apps to receive AI-assisted interpretations of complex medical reports and personalized health plans [2][11]. - AI for Science (AI4S) is identified as a crucial direction for artificial intelligence, with significant implications for various fields including drug development and materials science. It is expected to transition from laboratory stages to industrial applications, becoming a competitive area for global tech giants [2][24]. - The reliability of AI healthcare models is emphasized as critical for improving human health. The newly developed HealthBench aims to address existing evaluation system deficiencies by providing a more accurate assessment of AI models in real-world medical scenarios [17][21]. Summary by Sections OpenAI Launches ChatGPT Health - ChatGPT Health is designed to enhance user engagement with their health data, providing insights and recommendations based on individual health information [11][12]. - The system architecture of ChatGPT Health incorporates "data isolation" to enhance privacy, ensuring that medical data is securely managed and not used for training the main model [12]. AI for Science Initiates a New Era in Healthcare - AI4S is recognized as a strategic focus for major technology companies, with applications in drug discovery and materials science. The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for AI4S technology [24]. - Significant advancements in AI-driven drug discovery have been reported, including a platform that dramatically increases the speed and accuracy of virtual drug screening [24][31]. Related Companies - Companies such as Dean Diagnostics and Crystal Technology are highlighted for their roles in AI diagnostics and drug development, respectively. These firms are positioned to leverage AI technologies to enhance their offerings in the healthcare sector [40].

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The report highlights the importance of constructing negative duration funds using government bond futures to navigate market cycles [3][8] - Public funds have established a stable presence in the government bond futures market, with a significant number of funds holding short positions [8][9] - The report suggests that the current market for negative duration funds is limited, with most funds using futures primarily for hedging rather than seeking additional returns [10] Group 2: Industry and Company Insights - The medical and biological sector is experiencing strong performance, particularly in areas like brain-computer interfaces and AI healthcare, with significant investment opportunities identified [20][21] - The consumer-grade 3D printing industry is entering a period of widespread adoption, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for personalized products, with a projected market size exceeding $4 billion by 2024 [22][23] - The food and beverage sector is preparing for the Spring Festival, with various companies expected to benefit from favorable market conditions, particularly in the dairy and beverage segments [27][28] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the 3D printing sector that demonstrate technological advantages and strong market positions [24][25] - In the food and beverage industry, companies like Moutai and Yili are highlighted for their growth potential amid favorable market conditions [27][28] - The service sector is expected to benefit from ongoing government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending, with companies like Ctrip and Huazhu Group recommended for investment [30][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [4][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous enhancement of service consumption policies, which injects new vitality into the industry. Key measures include the emphasis on releasing service consumption potential and improving trade and investment facilitation in Hainan Free Trade Port [2][18][19]. - The consumer services sector saw a rise of 3.15% during the reporting period, outperforming the market by 0.96 percentage points [13][14]. - Companies such as Ctrip have leveraged AI technology to enhance product recommendation efficiency by over 8%, indicating a significant shift towards intelligent service delivery in the industry [23]. Summary by Sections Sector Review - The consumer services sector outperformed the market with a 3.15% increase from December 29, 2025, to January 11, 2026, ranking 16th among 30 industry indices [13][14]. - Notable stock performances included Tianli International Holdings (+19.92%) and Renrui Talent (+12.56%) [14]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Recent policies aimed at boosting service consumption include initiatives from the National Business Work Conference and Shanghai's 16 measures to stimulate consumption [2][18][19]. - The Sanya International Duty-Free City Phase III project has been capped, with a total investment of 7 billion CNY, expected to enhance the region's tourism and retail landscape [21]. - Ctrip's "Smart Engine 3.0" has significantly improved product recommendation efficiency, showcasing the impact of AI on operational effectiveness [23]. Stock Holdings Analysis - Core stocks in the Hong Kong market saw changes in holdings, with increases for companies like Mixue Group (+1.01%) and China Oriental Education (+0.81%) [30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies such as China Duty Free Group, Huatu Shanding, and Ctrip Group, among others, for potential investment opportunities [4][31].

Group 1 - In the first week of January, a total net inflow of funds into the market reached 721 billion, reversing a previous outflow of 104 billion [1][8] - The financing balance increased by 858 billion, public fund issuance rose by 70 billion, and estimated net inflow from northbound funds was 96 billion [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 564%, placing it in the 87th percentile historically [1][12] Group 2 - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.43%, which is in the 46th percentile historically [2][14] - The recent dividend yield of the CSI 300 index (excluding financials) compared to the ten-year government bond yield is 1.17, placing it in the 7th percentile historically [2][14] - The highest turnover rates among industries in the past week were in defense and military (100%), media (98%), and automotive (97%), while the lowest were in liquor (18%), utilities (56%), and beauty care (59%) [2][14] Group 3 - The highest financing transaction ratios were in power equipment (95%), beauty care (95%), and machinery (94%), while the lowest were in coal (32%), food and beverage (36%), and construction decoration (44%) [2][14] - The total market capitalization of A-shares is 101.25 trillion, with a circulating market value of 93.05 trillion [3]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 361 度（01361.HK） 第四季度流水维持双位数增长，国内超品店拓展至 126 家 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 纺织服饰·服装家纺 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：1 月 12 日，公司公告 2025 年第四季度零售表现，361 度主品牌线下零售额录得约 10%正增长， 童装品牌线下零售额录得约 10%正增长，电子商务平台录得高双位数正增长。 国信纺服观点： 1、2025 第四季度成人装线下流水增长约 10%，童装线下流水增长约 10%，电商增长高双位数，主品牌与 童装增速环比持平，电商增长环比降速；产品针对多样化需求持续推新；渠道建设方 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views - Amid complex global macro - economic conditions and increased bond market volatility, traditional bond long - only strategies face challenges, and treasury bond futures have become important for risk management and asset allocation in bond investment portfolios [13]. - The report details the current situation of public funds' participation in treasury bond futures, analyzes the design logic of negative - duration funds, and explores using treasury bond futures to hedge interest - rate risks for all - weather bond asset allocation [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Public Funds' Current Participation in Treasury Bond Futures - **Increasing Position Size with 1% Market Share**: By the end of Q3 2025, 141 public funds held treasury bond futures, holding a total of 13,068 contracts, including 3,992 long contracts (0.6% of the market) and 9,076 short contracts (1.4% of the market). Public funds are required to disclose treasury bond futures trading information in regular reports [17]. - **Short - Dominant Position Structure**: At the end of Q3 2025, 79 public funds held net short positions in treasury bond futures, with a short - contract market value of about 11 billion yuan, compared to 60 funds with net long positions and a long - contract market value of about 5.6 billion yuan, indicating a preference for short positions to hedge interest - rate risks [18]. - **Strategy and Contract Selection: Focus on Single - Variety and Single - Maturity**: In Q3 2025, 63.8% of funds held single - maturity treasury bond futures contracts (39 long - position and 51 short - position funds), while 36.2% held multi - variety or multi - maturity contracts [24]. - **Concentration on Active Contracts**: In Q3 2025, over 90% of public funds' positions were in the T2512, TS2512, and TL2512 active contracts, and the number of short positions in the TL2512 and T2512 contracts was significantly higher than long positions [27]. - **Mid - and Long - Term Pure - Bond Funds as the Main Allocators**: By the end of Q3 2025, mid - and long - term pure - bond funds were the main participants in treasury bond futures, with 47 funds holding positions, followed by hybrid bond - type secondary funds with 29 funds. The scale of mid - and long - term pure - bond funds' positions was about 8.78 billion yuan [28][33]. - **Leading Layout by Top - Tier Institutions**: By the end of Q3 2025, top - tier fund companies led in treasury bond futures layout. Harvest Fund and E Fund each had 14 related products, followed by China Merchants Fund with 10 products [37]. - **Significant Differences in Allocation Intensity Among Products**: The allocation intensity of public funds to treasury bond futures varies. For example, E Fund Credit Bond has a higher short - position allocation ratio than the market average, and Huataibaoxing Kaiyuan 3 - Month has a contract - market - value - to - fund - scale ratio of 27.1%, much higher than the industry average [40]. Negative - Duration Investment Strategy Based on Treasury Bond Futures Shorts - **Existing Negative - Duration Funds**: There are few negative - duration funds in the market, and the degree of negative duration is limited. This may be due to data errors in calculations and regulatory requirements for hedging purposes [46]. - **Constructing a Negative - Duration Portfolio**: Under regulatory constraints, to maximize negative duration, the following steps can be taken: invest only in cash bonds and treasury bond futures, set the short - position market - value ratio of treasury bond futures at a maximum of 30%, set the portfolio leverage at a maximum of 140%, short 30 - year treasury bond futures, and choose short - term bonds with a duration close to 0. The longest negative duration of a fund can reach - 7.1 years [51][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [4][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights that policies promoting service consumption are continuously being strengthened, injecting new vitality into the industry. Key initiatives include the emphasis on releasing service consumption potential and enhancing trade and investment facilitation in Hainan Free Trade Port [2][18][19]. - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a reported increase of 3.15% during the period from December 29, 2025, to January 11, 2026, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.96 percentage points [13][14]. - Companies such as Ctrip have leveraged AI technology to enhance product recommendation efficiency, achieving an improvement of over 8% [23]. Summary by Sections Industry Review - The consumer services sector saw significant stock performance, with notable gains from companies like Tianli International Holdings (19.92%) and Renrui Talent (12.56%) during the reporting period [14][17]. - The report indicates that the social services sector's valuation is expected to continue recovering due to favorable national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [31]. Company Dynamics - The report notes the completion of the third phase of the Sanya International Duty-Free City project, which is expected to be completed in stages starting in 2026, with a total investment of 7 billion CNY [21]. - Ctrip's "Smart Engine 3.0" has significantly improved product recommendation efficiency, marking a shift towards AI-driven solutions in the travel industry [23]. Stock Holdings Analysis - The report details changes in stock holdings among key companies, with increases in holdings for Mijiu Group, Guming, and China Oriental Education, while companies like Haidilao and Tianli International Holdings saw decreases [30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies such as China Duty Free Group, Huatu Shanding, and Huazhu Group, among others, for potential investment opportunities in the medium to long term [31].