- The CSI Satellite Industry Index (931594.CSI) selects up to 50 listed companies involved in satellite manufacturing and launching, ground equipment manufacturing, satellite navigation, satellite communication, and other related technological R&D and applications to reflect the overall performance of the satellite industry securities market [29][64] - The index's industry distribution is highly concentrated in the national defense and military industry, with a weight of 59.26%, followed by electronics (11.94%) and computers (11.49%) [31][64] - The index's R&D expenditure ratio is significantly higher than the overall market and the CSI Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index, with 38% of its constituent stocks having an R&D expenditure ratio exceeding 20% [37][64] - The CSI Satellite Industry Index's 2024 revenue growth rate is projected at 18.12%, with expected growth rates of 11.23%, 15.9%, and 20.76% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Net profit growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 222.01%, 48.86%, and 32.34%, respectively [41][64] - Over the past year, the index achieved a return of 121%, with a one-month return of 53%, outperforming the CSI Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index. It also demonstrated lower drawdown levels, showcasing better risk-return characteristics [50][64] - The index's compilation rules mandate that the combined weight of the satellite manufacturing and launching sectors must not fall below 50%, aligning with the current development phase of the industry, especially amid favorable conditions for rocket launches and satellite manufacturing [29][54][64]

- The **CSI Satellite Industry Index (931594.CSI)** selects up to 50 listed companies involved in satellite manufacturing and launching, ground equipment manufacturing, satellite navigation, satellite communication, and other related technological R&D and applications to reflect the overall performance of the satellite industry securities market [29][64] - The index's industry distribution is highly concentrated in the defense and military sector, with a weight of 59.26%. The proportion of constituent stocks with R&D expenditure exceeding 20% is 38%, which is significantly higher than the overall market level and the CSI Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index [31][37][64] - The index's revenue growth rate for 2024 is projected at 18.12%, with expected growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 11.23%, 15.9%, and 20.76%, respectively. Net profit growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 222.01%, 48.86%, and 32.34%, respectively [41][64] - Over the past year, the index achieved a return of 121%, with a one-month return of 53%, outperforming the CSI Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index. Additionally, it demonstrated lower drawdown levels, showcasing better risk-return characteristics [50][51][64] - The index's compilation rules mandate that the combined weight of the "satellite manufacturing + launching" foundational sectors must not be less than 50%, aligning with the current development phase of the industry amidst continuous favorable news in rocket launches and satellite manufacturing [29][54][64]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月18日 基金投资价值分析 一键精准布局卫星全产业链——招商中证卫星产业 ETF 投资 价值分析 一键精准布局卫星全产业链 当前全球各国积极加快布局、抢占先机：卫星频率和轨道资源是全球稀缺战 略资源。依据 ITU"先到先得"规则，率先完成部署的主体可优先锁定轨道与 频段使用权，这一规则重塑了全球太空资源竞争格局。在此背景下中国推进 "GW 星座""千帆星座"等国家级星座计划，拟在未来十年内完成上万颗部署。 政策大力支持，国家战略持续加码：我国政府有关部门连续颁布一系列法规 及政策文件，大力支持商业航天领域发展，强调加快布局卫星网络的紧迫性。 目前国家队和民营企业"双线并进"的技术研发模式形成了良好的互补效应。 中证卫星产业指数投资价值分析 中证卫星产业指数（931594.CSI）选取不超过 50 只业务涉及卫星制造 与发射、卫星地面设备制造、卫星导航、卫星通信以及其它技术研发与 应用环节的上市公司证券，以反映卫星产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 指数行业分布主要集中在国防军工行业，占比 59.26%，成分股研发支出占 比普遍较高，高于全市场水平和国证商用卫星通信产业指数。中证卫星产 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.4% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.7%[1] - Small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed with a gain of 2.2%, followed by small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth) at 1.9%[1] - Among 10 sectors, 6 sectors saw gains, with Food & Staples Retailing up 4.6% and Capital Goods up 4.4%[1] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was -$1.7 billion this week, down from +$130.2 million last week[2] - Semiconductor products and equipment saw a significant inflow of $37.6 million, while Software & Services experienced an outflow of $32.7 million[2] Earnings Forecast - The 12-month forward EPS estimate for S&P 500 components was revised up by 0.3% this week, consistent with last week[3] - The automotive sector led with an EPS increase of 1.3%, while the energy sector saw a decrease of 2.1%[3] Risk Factors - Key risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policies[3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3% this week, while the Hang Seng Composite Index rose by 2.6%. Large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap and mid-cap stocks, with the Hang Seng Large Cap Index up by 2.8% and the Hang Seng Mid Cap Index only increasing by 1.0% [1] - The internet sector led the market rally, with the Hang Seng Internet Index rising by 3.7%. Overall, 22 industries saw gains, while 7 experienced declines, with notable increases in the comprehensive sector (+16.3%) and retail trade (+8.8%) [1] Valuation Levels - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3% to 11.9x, with the Hang Seng Composite Index also at 11.9x after a 2.0% rise. The Hang Seng Internet Index saw a significant increase of 4.6% to 18.6x [2] - Among various strategies, the ROE defensive strategy's valuation rose by 2.5% to 9.0x, while the ROE offensive strategy decreased by 1.2% to 13.9x. Overall, 22 industries experienced valuation increases, with retail trade (+10.7%) and computers (+6.3%) leading the way [2] Earnings Expectations - The earnings per share (EPS) for the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.3% week-on-week, while the Hang Seng Composite Index saw a 0.4% rise. The Hang Seng High Dividend Index's EPS was revised up by 2.2%, contrasting with a slight decrease of 0.2% for the Hang Seng Internet Index [3] - A total of 15 industries had upward revisions in EPS, with the comprehensive sector seeing a notable increase of 13.7%. Conversely, 12 industries had downward revisions, with the construction materials sector experiencing a significant decrease of 4.6% [3]

Monetary Policy - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points to 1.25%, below the short-term policy rate of 1.4%[1] - The central bank indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts in 2026, but these are likely to be used as a reserve tool rather than a routine operation[1][11] - Current monetary policy focuses on structural rate cuts rather than comprehensive rate cuts, reflecting internal constraints such as low net interest margins for commercial banks[1][11] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year[3] - Retail sales have increased by 1.3% year-on-year[3] - Exports have risen by 6.6% year-on-year[3] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal spending is expected to increase in Q1 2026, supported by a significant carryover of surplus funds from 2025[2][12] - The combination of structural monetary easing and fiscal policy aims to effectively expand domestic demand and solidify economic recovery[12] Market Trends - Production remains strong, with high demand in sectors like machinery and textiles, while real estate transactions continue to decline[13][14] - Port cargo throughput has increased by 4.82% year-on-year, indicating robust foreign trade momentum[22] Risks - There are uncertainties in overseas markets that could impact economic stability[2][51]

Core Conclusions - Since mid-December last year, broad-based ETFs, flexible foreign capital, and leveraged funds have successively propelled the spring market rally [1] - Currently, there is net redemption in ETFs, a slowdown in the inflow of flexible foreign capital, and the inflow rate of leveraged funds has been too fast, which may put pressure on the short-term stock market liquidity [2] - The spring market rally is not over, and short-term fluctuations may present layout opportunities, with a balanced allocation structure, focusing on technology applications and upstream cycles, while paying attention to real estate and other traditional assets [1][3] Market Liquidity Changes - Since December 17, 2025, the A-share broad index has continued to rise, with the spring market gradually unfolding. The micro-funding environment has seen broad-based ETFs, flexible foreign capital, and leveraged funds play a supportive role [12] - In December, broad-based ETFs saw significant inflows, with a total net inflow exceeding 100 billion yuan, significantly higher than the -14.2 billion yuan in November. The ETF linked to the CSI A500 index contributed the majority of the subscription scale [12] - The strengthening of the RMB has catalyzed the inflow of flexible foreign capital into A-shares, with an estimated net inflow of at least 13.5 billion yuan in December, despite overall foreign capital being net outflow [12] Recent Changes in Micro-Funding - Recent weeks have seen new changes in the micro-funding environment, with net redemptions in ETFs and a slowdown in the inflow rate of flexible foreign capital. As of mid-January, broad-based ETFs have seen a cumulative net redemption of about 200 billion yuan [22] - The inflow rate of short-term leveraged funds has been too fast, with the financing balance exceeding 2.7 trillion yuan, creating historical highs. The average daily net buying amount since January 15 has reached 19.7 billion yuan, significantly higher than the 2.9 billion yuan in December [13][23] Spring Market Outlook - The current spring market rally is characterized by a significant upward trend rather than a minor rebound, with further potential for development. The market sentiment has not yet reached its peak, and the current policy environment remains accommodative [33] - The AI wave continues to drive technology growth as the main industry line for this bull market, with recommendations to focus on sectors where AI applications are being implemented [36] - There are also opportunities in value sectors such as undervalued real estate, non-bank financials, traditional consumer sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies, and upstream resource products [40]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月17日 策略周报 灵活型外资流入收窄——1 月第 2 周全球外资周观察 核心观点 策略研究·策略周报 | 证券分析师：吴信坤 | 证券分析师：余培仪 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-61761046 | | | | wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn | yupeiyi@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980525120001 | S0980526010001 | | | 基础数据 | | | | 中小板/月涨跌幅(%) | | 8806.64/12.52 | | 创业板/月涨跌幅(%) | | 3361.02/9.42 | | AH 股价差指数 | | 120.43 | | A 股总/流通市值 (万亿元) | | 101.53/92.81 | | 市场走势 | | | 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 相关研究报告 核心结论：①北向资金：最近一周可能小幅净流出，其中灵活型外资可能小 幅净流入。②港股：稳定型外资流出 1 亿港元，灵活型外资流入 79 亿港元， 港股通流入 155 亿港元。③亚太市场：外资本周流入日本 ...

核心观点 金融工程周报 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月17日 港股投资周报 多只周期股创一年新高，港股精选组合年内上涨 6.17% 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益 0.01%，相对恒生指数超额收益-2.33%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 6.17%，相对恒生指数超额收益 1.43%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 近期，威胜控股等股票平稳创出新高。 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期板块，其次为科技、大金融、 制造和消费板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。 港股市场一周回顾 宽基指数方面，本周恒生大型股指数收益最高，累计收益 2.85%；恒生中型 股指数收益最低，累计收益 0.99%。 行业指数方面，本周非必需性消费行业收益最高，累计收益 5.67%；电讯业 行业收益最低，累计收益-1.34%。 概念板块方面，本周金融 IC 指数概念板块收益最高，累计收益 16.94%；国 内零售指数概念板块收益最低，累计收益-8.23%。 南向资金监控 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various active quantitative strategies, indicating that the "Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 2.41% this week and 7.39% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 0.89% and 1.01% respectively [1][22][15] - The "Super Expected Selection Portfolio" recorded an absolute return of 3.13% this week and 8.42% year-to-date, with a relative outperformance of 1.61% and 2.04% against the mixed equity fund index [1][32][15] - The "Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio" had an absolute return of 1.40% this week and 6.87% year-to-date, underperforming the mixed equity fund index by 0.12% but outperforming it by 0.49% year-to-date [1][40][15] - The "Growth Steady Portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 2.83% this week and 8.98% year-to-date, with a relative outperformance of 1.31% and 2.60% against the mixed equity fund index [1][48][15] Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio - This portfolio aims to benchmark against the median return of active equity funds, utilizing a quantitative approach to enhance performance based on the holdings of top-performing funds [3][16] - The portfolio has shown a year-to-date ranking in the 35.10 percentile among active equity funds, indicating a strong competitive position [22][18] Super Expected Selection Portfolio - The strategy involves selecting stocks based on exceeding expectations and analyst upgrades, focusing on both fundamental and technical criteria to build a robust portfolio [4][59] - The portfolio has consistently ranked in the 26.74 percentile among active equity funds year-to-date, reflecting its effectiveness in stock selection [32][27] Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio - This portfolio is constructed using a selection of stocks identified by brokerage firms, aiming to optimize performance while maintaining alignment with the brokerage stock pool [5][64] - It has achieved a year-to-date ranking in the 40.34 percentile among active equity funds, demonstrating its potential for stable returns [40][35] Growth Steady Portfolio - The strategy employs a two-dimensional evaluation system for growth stocks, prioritizing those closer to their earnings announcement dates to capture potential excess returns [6][69] - The portfolio has achieved a year-to-date ranking in the 23.27 percentile among active equity funds, indicating a solid performance relative to peers [48][46]