市场资金流向：截至 20260107 两融余额为 26047 亿元，其中融资余额 25872 亿元，融券余额 175 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 11.5%。 折溢价：20260107 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是中证 500 价值 ETF，ETF 折价 较多的是线上消费 ETF 基金。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 22 亿 元，20260107 当日大宗交易成交金额为 21 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 6.71%，当日折价率为 6.75%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、 中证 1000 股指期货主力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 0.85%、3.79%、 11.15%、13.61%，当日上证 50 股指期货主力合约年化升水率为 0.06%， 处于近一年来 67%分位点，当日沪深 300 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 2.26%，处于近一年来 71%分位点；当日中证 500 股指期货主力合约年化贴 水率为 5.64%，处于近一年来 83%分位点；当日中证 1000 股指期货主力合 约年化贴水率为 10.52%，处于近一年来 73%分位点。 机构 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月08日 核心结论：①25 年 A 股增量资金市场特征明显，杠杆资金、私募资金等活跃 资金成为主要入市力量，险资亦有较大入市体量，主动偏股公募整体净赎回。 ②当前入市资金或主要来源于高净值人群，随着大部分居民风险偏好自低位 逐渐修复，26 年普通居民资金有望成为主力入市资金。③25 年宏微观背景 与 20 年均具有一定相似性，但增量资金结构存在差异，借鉴历史伴随居民 资金入市进程推进，26 年全年增量资金预计达 2 万亿元。 2025 年 A 股增量资金主力来自活跃资金。25 年亮眼行情的背后离不开充裕 的资金面支撑，25 年的资金入市可分为两个阶段：25 年上半年市场行情震 荡修复，政策支持+产业催化下各路资金"多点开花"。上半年一方面代表 散户资金的银证转账资金流入 2400 亿元，外资亦阶段性回流约 1000 亿元； 另一方面追求长线投资的险资大幅流入约 4200 亿元，此外 ETF 资金亦流入 约 800 亿元。行业层面看，上半年增量资金主要流入科技和红利板块。Q3 以 来市场放量拉升，主要增量资金来自私募和融资交易等活跃资金。一方面杠 杆资金大幅入市，7 月以来杠杆资 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月08日 氟化工行业：2025 年 12 月月度观察 优于大市 一季度制冷剂长协价格落地，关注 PVDF 价格持续修复 12 月氟化工行情回顾：截至 12 月末（12 月 31 日），上证综指报 3968.84 点， 较 11 月末（11 月 28 日）上涨 2.06%；沪深 300 指数报 4629.94 点，较 11 月末上涨 2.28%；申万化工指数报 4372.39，较 11 月末上涨 4.43%；氟化工 指数报 2018.62 点，较 11 月末上涨 1.89%。12 月氟化工行业指数跑输申万 化工指数 2.54pct,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.39pct，跑输上证综指 0.17pct。 一季度主流制冷剂长协价格持续上涨。展望一季度，伴随一季度长协价格确 定，终端空调企业长协订单执行稳定：据卓创资讯，R32 长协价格将在 61200 元/吨（承兑），环比 2025 年四季度价格上涨 1000 元/吨，涨幅 1.66%；R410A 长协价格在 55100 元/吨（承兑），环比 2025 年四季度上涨 1900 元/吨，涨 幅 3.57%。预计往后一周 R32 价格区间 ...

北交所 2025 年 12 月月报 优于大市 北交所主题基金跻身公募基金三年期业绩榜前列，北交所打新 收益再创新高 本月北交所股票市场成交活跃度回升，两融活跃度相对稳定。本月北交所 新增上市公司 3 家，为蘅东光（920045.BJ）、江天科技（920121.BJ）、 精创电气（920035.BJ）。北交所上市公司总数为288家，总市值为 8694.44 亿元，流通市值为 5259.56 亿元，环比分别上升 5.1%和 3.6%。 流动性和市场成交活跃度方面，本月北交所股票成交活跃度有所回升， 单月成交数量和成交金额为 193.44 亿股和 4384.02 亿元，成交量环比 上升 13.9%，成交金额环比上升 16.4%。 两融方面，北交所 12 月两融 余额与上月持平，日均值 77.39 亿元，环比变化-0.64%。 估值方面，截至 12 月 31 日，北证 50 指数市盈率（PE-TTM）为 43.78 倍，处于近两年 56.73%的分位数水平，市净率（PB-MRQ）为 8.85 倍， 处于近两年 85.09%的分位数水平。股息率为 0.76 倍，处于近两年 27.44% 的分位数水平。按行业来看，以各行 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月08日 策略专题 入市增量资金有望超两万亿——2026 年牛市展望系列 1 核心结论：①25 年 A 股增量资金市场特征明显，杠杆资金、私募资金等活跃 资金成为主要入市力量，险资亦有较大入市体量，主动偏股公募整体净赎回。 ②当前入市资金或主要来源于高净值人群，随着大部分居民风险偏好自低位 逐渐修复，26 年普通居民资金有望成为主力入市资金。③25 年宏微观背景 与 20 年均具有一定相似性，但增量资金结构存在差异，借鉴历史伴随居民 资金入市进程推进，26 年全年增量资金预计达 2 万亿元。 2025 年 A 股增量资金主力来自活跃资金。25 年亮眼行情的背后离不开充裕 的资金面支撑，25 年的资金入市可分为两个阶段：25 年上半年市场行情震 荡修复，政策支持+产业催化下各路资金"多点开花"。上半年一方面代表 散户资金的银证转账资金流入 2400 亿元，外资亦阶段性回流约 1000 亿元； 另一方面追求长线投资的险资大幅流入约 4200 亿元，此外 ETF 资金亦流入 约 800 亿元。行业层面看，上半年增量资金主要流入科技和红利板块。Q3 以 来市场放量拉升，主要增量资金来自 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月08日 氟化工行业：2025 年 12 月月度观察 优于大市 一季度制冷剂长协价格落地，关注 PVDF 价格持续修复 12 月氟化工行情回顾：截至 12 月末（12 月 31 日），上证综指报 3968.84 点， 较 11 月末（11 月 28 日）上涨 2.06%；沪深 300 指数报 4629.94 点，较 11 月末上涨 2.28%；申万化工指数报 4372.39，较 11 月末上涨 4.43%；氟化工 指数报 2018.62 点，较 11 月末上涨 1.89%。12 月氟化工行业指数跑输申万 化工指数 2.54pct,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.39pct，跑输上证综指 0.17pct。 一季度主流制冷剂长协价格持续上涨。展望一季度，伴随一季度长协价格确 定，终端空调企业长协订单执行稳定：据卓创资讯，R32 长协价格将在 61200 元/吨（承兑），环比 2025 年四季度价格上涨 1000 元/吨，涨幅 1.66%；R410A 长协价格在 55100 元/吨（承兑），环比 2025 年四季度上涨 1900 元/吨，涨 幅 3.57%。预计往后一周 R32 价格区间 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, coupled with growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a significant increase during the South American planting season, followed by a decline due to high North American inventories [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices have shown an upward trend, with the average price at 3,282 RMB/ton by the end of December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.45% [1][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at around 1,040 RMB/ton in Hubei and 970 RMB/ton in Yunnan [2][50]. - The production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 48.59% expected in 2025 [2][51]. Pesticides - The glyphosate market is expected to see price improvements in 2026, following a period of price fluctuations influenced by seasonal demand and inventory levels [4][49]. - The report highlights several key companies in the pesticide sector, including Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from rising prices and demand [8][49]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong potassium and phosphate resources, such as Yara International and Yun Tianhua, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand and supply dynamics in the agricultural chemical sector [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, alongside growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate. The domestic supply-demand situation for phosphate rock is tightening, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining elevated [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a peak during the South American planting season and a subsequent decline due to high North American inventories. The report anticipates a recovery in glyphosate prices in 2026 [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices are projected to stabilize around 3,100-3,200 CNY/ton, with expectations of maintaining high inventory levels for food security [24][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over three years. The report highlights the increasing demand from lithium battery applications [2][50]. - Phosphate chemical prices have shown upward trends for products like lithium iron phosphate, while glyphosate prices have decreased significantly [49][51]. Pesticides - The report suggests a potential recovery in the pesticide sector, particularly for glyphosate and its derivatives, as the industry undergoes restructuring to improve profitability [4][8]. - Companies such as Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical are highlighted as key players in the pesticide market, with recommendations for investment [7][8].

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in 2025, the A-share market will see significant inflows from active funds such as leveraged and private equity funds, while insurance capital will also play a substantial role, contrasting with the overall net redemption of actively managed public funds [1][2][4] - The primary source of incoming funds is expected to shift towards high-net-worth individuals, with ordinary residents likely becoming the main contributors by 2026 as their risk appetite recovers from low levels [1][3] - The macroeconomic and microeconomic context of 2025 shows similarities to 2020, but the structure of incremental funds differs, leading to an estimated total inflow of 2 trillion yuan for 2026 [1][4] Group 2 - In 2025, the A-share market's performance is supported by a robust funding environment, with inflows categorized into two phases: the first half of the year saw a recovery in the market, while the third quarter experienced significant inflows from private equity and leveraged trading [2][19] - The first half of 2025 saw a total inflow of approximately 4.2 billion yuan from insurance funds, 2.4 billion yuan from retail investors, and 1 billion yuan from foreign capital, with a notable focus on technology and dividend sectors [2][14] - The third quarter marked a substantial increase in leveraged funds, with around 7 billion yuan entering the market, and private equity funds also significantly increased their market presence, contributing approximately 4 billion yuan [19][20] Group 3 - The process of resident funds entering the market is still in its early stages, primarily driven by high-net-worth individuals, as evidenced by a survey indicating an increase in investment willingness among 18.5% of urban depositors [3][32] - Despite signs of recovery in risk appetite among residents, the majority of funds entering the market are still from high-risk tolerant individuals, with broader participation from the general public remaining limited [3][36] - The overall risk appetite of residents remains low, with many still favoring low-risk investment products, which may hinder a more significant influx of resident funds into the market [36][41] Group 4 - The expected net inflow of funds for 2026 is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan, with contributions anticipated from retail investors, insurance capital, and improved public and foreign fund participation [4][55] - The inflow sources for 2026 include an estimated 10 billion yuan from retail active funds, 7 billion yuan from insurance capital, and 9.5 billion yuan from corporate dividends, indicating a diverse funding landscape [57][58] - The outflow of funds is expected to increase alongside market sentiment recovery, with projections for IPOs and refinancing activities to rise significantly, reflecting a more active capital market environment [58][59]

策略专题 入市增量资金有望超两万亿——2026 年牛市展望系列 1 核心结论：①25 年 A 股增量资金市场特征明显，杠杆资金、私募资金等活跃 资金成为主要入市力量，险资亦有较大入市体量，主动偏股公募整体净赎回。 ②当前入市资金或主要来源于高净值人群，随着大部分居民风险偏好自低位 逐渐修复，26 年普通居民资金有望成为主力入市资金。③25 年宏微观背景 与 20 年均具有一定相似性，但增量资金结构存在差异，借鉴历史伴随居民 资金入市进程推进，26 年全年增量资金预计达 2 万亿元。 2025 年 A 股增量资金主力来自活跃资金。25 年亮眼行情的背后离不开充裕 的资金面支撑，25 年的资金入市可分为两个阶段：25 年上半年市场行情震 荡修复，政策支持+产业催化下各路资金"多点开花"。上半年一方面代表 散户资金的银证转账资金流入 2400 亿元，外资亦阶段性回流约 1000 亿元； 另一方面追求长线投资的险资大幅流入约 4200 亿元，此外 ETF 资金亦流入 约 800 亿元。行业层面看，上半年增量资金主要流入科技和红利板块。Q3 以 来市场放量拉升，主要增量资金来自私募和融资交易等活跃资金。一方面杠 杆资金 ...