证券研究报告 | 2026年01月22日 寻找中国保险的 Alpha 系列之四 优于大市 从保单到数据：新能源车险的价值跃迁 产业周期看财险：我国新能源车险已步入"量价齐升"的黄金发展期。在"双 碳"目标的国家战略指引与延续性的购置税减免等政策激励下，我国新能源 汽车市场渗透率持续快速提升。2024 年，我国新能源汽车销量占总新车销量 的比例已高达 40.9%，零售渗透率逼近 50%，其销量增速显著超越传统燃油 车，这为车险保费增长提供了坚实的原生动力。与此同时，"高级驾驶辅助 系统（ADAS）"渗透率超过 50%以及"基于使用行为的保险（UBI）"等创 新模式的普及，正从技术层面重塑车险的风险管理与定价逻辑，为行业破解 成本困局提供了关键工具。 | 证券分析师：孔祥 | 证券分析师：王京灵 | | --- | --- | | 021-60375452 | 0755-22941150 | | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | wangjingling@guosen.com.cn | | S0980523060004 | S0980525070007 | 新能源车险高增长背后是当前"高成本、高 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company has established itself as a leading coal enterprise with a strong focus on growth and high dividends, supported by a diversified business model that includes mining, high-end chemical materials, high-end equipment manufacturing, smart logistics, and new energy [2][4] - The company has significant coal resources and production capacity, with a total coal resource of 889.74 billion tons and an exploitable reserve of 177.44 billion tons as of the end of 2024 [2][10] - The coal quality is excellent, characterized by low ash, low sulfur, and high calorific value, which enhances its market reputation [2][55] - The coal chemical business is technologically advanced and poised for growth, with plans to expand production capacity significantly in the coming years [2][4] - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance its resource base and operational capabilities, including recent acquisitions of mining assets [22][24] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company was founded in 1997 and has listings in multiple stock exchanges, becoming an international energy company with a diversified portfolio [2][10] - The company aims to create green energy and lead energy transformation, focusing on five main industries: mining, high-end chemical materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, and smart logistics [10][21] 2. Coal Resource and Production Capacity - The company has a rich distribution of coal resources across various regions, including Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Australia, with a total coal resource of 464.3 billion tons and an exploitable reserve of 60.05 billion tons [2][55] - The company plans to achieve a coal production target of 300 million tons per year, with significant capacity expansions expected from new mines in the coming years [2][4] 3. Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment is a key growth area, with advanced technologies and plans for new projects that will enhance production capacity and product diversity [2][4] - The company is set to launch several high-end coal chemical projects, including an 80,000-ton ethylene project and a 50,000-ton high-temperature Fischer-Tropsch project [2][4] 4. Other Business Segments - The company is diversifying into non-coal mining, logistics, and equipment manufacturing, with significant resources in molybdenum and potassium salts [2][4] - Recent acquisitions have strengthened the company's logistics capabilities, enhancing its integrated logistics system [22][24] 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 135.8 billion, 145.7 billion, and 147.4 billion yuan, with net profits of 10.6 billion, 13.3 billion, and 13.4 billion yuan respectively [2][4] - The stock is expected to have a reasonable valuation range of 15.9 to 17.2 yuan by 2026, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 24% compared to the closing price on January 19, 2026 [2][4]

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Outperform" [1][4][5] Core Insights - The report explores the relationship between the automotive industry's prosperity (sales growth) and the valuation of the automotive sector, indicating that while the industry faces pressures from diminishing total growth, it also encounters transformative opportunities from rapid AI model iterations [1][2] - The correlation between industry prosperity and sector valuation has weakened since 2019, leading to two key effects: decoupling effect and asymmetric effect, where high prosperity can drive valuation increases, but low prosperity does not necessarily lead to valuation declines [2][21] - The automotive industry is transitioning to a low growth phase, with total sales expected to stabilize, while structural opportunities arise from exports, smart vehicles, and robotics [3][52] Summary by Sections Relationship Between Valuation and Prosperity - There is a long-term positive correlation between automotive sector valuation and industry prosperity, with valuation showing a leading indicator effect on sales growth [11][15] - Monthly valuation of the automotive sector has a strong correlation with monthly sales growth, indicating that current valuations reflect future sales growth expectations [19][15] Decoupling and Asymmetric Effects - The relationship between prosperity and valuation has decoupled since 2019, with high prosperity not being a necessary condition for high valuation [21][23] - High prosperity can enhance valuation, while low prosperity does not necessarily suppress it, indicating a structural shift in valuation dynamics [35][36] Three-Cycle Theory - The automotive industry is influenced by three cycles: macroeconomic cycle, industrial technology cycle, and policy cycle, which together affect the industry's fundamentals and valuation [39][48] - The shift in dominant cycles from macroeconomic and policy cycles to industrial technology cycles has led to a redefinition of valuation logic, emphasizing structural opportunities over total growth [40][49] Future Outlook - The automotive industry is expected to enter a phase of normalized low growth, with total sales projected to stabilize around 34.89 million units in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 11% [52][56] - The report highlights the potential for structural growth driven by advancements in AI and smart vehicle technologies, which are anticipated to become new engines of valuation growth [3][52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][9]. Core Insights - The increase in Indonesia's crude palm oil export levy from 10% to 12.5% is expected to enhance the profitability per ton for the company's operations in Indonesia [3][4]. - The company is positioned as a leading enterprise in domestic oil chemical, surfactants, and personal care processing, with significant production capacities exceeding 1 million tons per year for oil chemical products and over 1.2 million tons for surfactants [3][9]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 39% in 2025, followed by 16% in 2026 and 8% in 2027, with net profit projections of 3.0 billion, 4.1 billion, and 5.1 billion yuan respectively during the same period [3][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tax Rate Impact - The increase in the export levy is expected to boost the absolute tax amount paid, thereby enhancing the profitability of the company's Indonesian subsidiary, Dukuda [4][6]. Production Capacity and Profitability - Dukuda's new production capacity is being released in an orderly manner, and the combination of increased tax revenue and production capacity is expected to lead to simultaneous volume and price increases, enhancing overall profitability [6][9]. - The utilization rates for surfactants and OEM/ODM processing are steadily improving, which is anticipated to drive profitability upward [7]. Future Growth Potential - The company is focusing on the gradual ramp-up of OPO structured fat production, which is projected to achieve sales in the kiloton range within the year [8]. - The company has secured contracts with major clients such as White Cat and Unilever, which will help improve the operational rates of its processing capacity [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [4][2] Core Views - The company's revenue growth has turned positive, with a total revenue of 212.7 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 77.5 billion yuan, up 0.34% year-on-year [1][2] - The revenue growth improvement is attributed to two main factors: a narrowing decline in net interest margin leading to an increase in net interest income, and a reduction in the decline of non-interest income, with net commission income turning positive [1][2] - The company's total assets at the end of the period were 11.09 trillion yuan, with total loans amounting to 5.95 trillion yuan, showing growth of 5.57% and 3.70% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net bad loan balance of 64.25 billion yuan at the end of the period, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08%, unchanged from the end of September [2] - The provision coverage ratio stood at 228.41%, showing a slight increase from the end of September but a decrease of 9.4 percentage points from the beginning of the year [2] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 77.6 billion, 80.3 billion, and 84.6 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 3.5%, and 5.4% [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][9]. Core Views - The increase in Indonesia's crude palm oil export levy from 10% to 12.5% is expected to enhance the profitability per ton for the company's Dukuda operations in Indonesia [3][4]. - The Dukuda project is progressing steadily, with new capacity expected to be released in an orderly manner, which, combined with the increased tax, is anticipated to achieve both volume and price growth [3][6]. - The utilization rates for surfactants and OEM/ODM processing are continuously improving, which is expected to drive profitability upward [3][7]. - The company is poised to gradually ramp up its OPO structured fat production, with expectations of achieving significant sales within the year [3][8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to generate revenues of 14.9 billion, 17.3 billion, and 18.8 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39%, 16%, and 8% [3][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 300 million, 410 million, and 510 million yuan for the same years, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 119%, 37%, and 24% [3][9]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.63, 0.87, and 1.08 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.6, 14.2, and 11.4 times [3][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [4][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth has turned positive, with a total revenue of 212.7 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 77.5 billion yuan, up 0.34% year-on-year [1][2]. - The revenue growth improvement is attributed to two main factors: a narrowing decline in net interest margin leading to an increase in net interest income, and a reduction in the decline of non-interest income, with net commission income turning positive [1][2]. - The total assets at the end of the period were 11.09 trillion yuan, with total loans amounting to 5.95 trillion yuan, showing growth of 5.57% and 3.70% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a quarterly revenue growth of 7.3% in Q4, significantly improving from a 1.82% decline in the first three quarters [1]. - The non-performing loan balance was 64.25 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08%, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The provision coverage ratio stood at 228.41%, showing a slight increase from the previous quarter [2]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Metrics - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 77.6 billion, 80.3 billion, and 84.6 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 3.5%, and 5.4% [2][3]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025-2027 is projected to be 5.7x, 5.5x, and 5.2x, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to be 0.51x, 0.48x, and 0.45x [2][3].

事项： 公司公告：立高食品发布业绩预告，2025 年全年实现营业总收入 42.6-44.2 亿元，同比增长 11.07%-15.24%； 扣非归母净利润 3.06-3.26 亿元，同比增长 20.61%-28.49%。 国信食饮观点：1）商超渠道节奏良好，成本回落叠加费效提升，利润有望平稳回升；2）资源聚焦高潜渠 道，新品积极布局 2026；3）我们预计 2025-2027 年公司实现营业总收入 43.5/49.3/53.9 亿元（前预测值 为 43.9/48.7/53.2 亿元），同比 13.5%/13.2%/9.3%；2025-2027 年公司实现归母净利润 3.2/3.9/4.4 亿 元（前预测值为 3.2/3.9/4.3 亿元），同比 19.8%/20.9%/14.2%；实现 EPS1.90/2.29/2.62 元；当前股价 对应 PE 分别为 24.4/20.2/17.7 倍，维持"优于大市"评级。 评论： 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月21日 2026年01月22日 立高食品（300973.SZ） 商超渠道节奏良好，新品积极布局 |  公司研究·公司快评 | | |  | 食品饮料·食品加 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [4][38]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown a 3.44% increase, outperforming both the CSI 300 (-0.57%) and the ChiNext Index (1.00%) during the week of January 12-16 [11][12]. - Key companies that performed well include Yidian Tianxia, Liou Shares, People’s Daily, and Visual China, while companies like ST Fanli, Liansheng Technology, Beitou Technology, and Diguang Media faced declines [11][12]. - Bilibili launched a one-stop AI marketing tool, "Bilibili Bid," aimed at enhancing advertising efficiency for brands [15][16]. - Google’s Veo 3.1 received a significant upgrade, improving its video generation capabilities [15][16]. - OpenAI released the GPT-5.2 Codex programming model, enhancing its performance for complex software development tasks [15][16]. - The Qianwen App introduced over 400 new features, covering various services from food delivery to AI tutoring [17]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector's performance ranked third among all sectors, with a notable increase of 3.44% [11][12][13]. Key Company Updates - The report highlights the strong performance of companies like Yidian Tianxia and Liou Shares, with significant weekly gains [11][12]. - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Kayi Network and Jibite [4][38]. Market Trends - The film box office for the week was 259 million yuan, with top films including "Nishan" (58 million yuan), "Zootopia 2" (53 million yuan), and "Avatar 3" (45 million yuan) [17][19]. - In the gaming sector, the top-grossing mobile games in December 2025 were "Whiteout Survival," "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story," and "Kingshot" [26][27]. AI and Technology Developments - The report emphasizes the acceleration of AI applications in the media industry, particularly in marketing and content creation [3][36]. - Companies are encouraged to explore investment opportunities in AI-driven sectors, including AI marketing and content services [3][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [4][36]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown a 3.44% increase, outperforming both the CSI 300 (-0.57%) and the ChiNext Index (1.00%) during the week of January 12-16 [11][12]. - Key companies that performed well include Yidian Tianxia, Liou Co., People's Daily, and Vision China, while companies like ST Fanli and Liansheng Technology saw declines [11][12]. - Bilibili launched a one-stop AI marketing tool, "Bilibili Bid," aimed at enhancing advertising efficiency [15][16]. - Google released a significant upgrade to its AI video generation model, Veo 3.1, enhancing its practical applications [15][16]. - OpenAI introduced the GPT-5.2 Codex programming model, which significantly improves performance and reliability for long-term tasks [15][16]. - The Qianwen App launched over 400 new features, marking a significant advancement in AI capabilities [15][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector's performance ranked third among all sectors, with a notable increase of 3.44% [11][12][13]. Key Company Updates - The report highlights the strong performance of companies like Yidian Tianxia, which saw a 54% increase, and Liou Co., which increased by 39% [12]. - The report also provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Kayi Network and Jibite [4]. Market Data - The total box office for the week was 259 million yuan, with the top three films being "Nishan" (58 million yuan), "Zootopia 2" (53 million yuan), and "Avatar 3" (45 million yuan) [2][19]. - In the gaming sector, the top three mobile games in December 2025 were "Whiteout Survival," "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story," and "Kingshot" [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in the media sector, particularly in marketing and content creation, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like Zhejiang Wenlian and Huimai Technology [36]. - It also notes the expected growth in the gaming sector driven by new product cycles and AI integration, recommending companies such as Giant Network and JiBit [36].