Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium battery industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The lithium salt prices have risen, with lithium carbonate priced at 171,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 31,000 yuan/ton compared to two weeks ago [2] - The report highlights the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization, with various companies announcing significant projects and collaborations [4] - Demand for lithium batteries is expected to remain strong, with several leading companies identified as potential investment opportunities [2] Industry Dynamics - Lithium salt prices have increased, with the current price of lithium carbonate at 171,000 yuan/ton, up 31,000 yuan/ton from two weeks ago [2] - The prices of ternary cathodes and lithium iron phosphate cathodes have also risen, while the prices of anodes, separators, and electrolytes remain stable [2] - The report notes that the price of square ternary power cells has increased by 0.057 yuan/Wh compared to two weeks ago [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the lithium battery industry with low valuations amid strong demand, including CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [2] - It also highlights companies leading in the low-altitude economy and robotics sectors, as well as those involved in solid-state and sodium battery materials [2] Solid-State Battery Developments - The solid-state battery industry is advancing, with several companies announcing new projects and collaborations [4] - CATL has released a sodium battery solution for light commercial vehicles, capable of operating at -30°C [4] - Various companies are entering partnerships to enhance solid-state battery technology and production capabilities [10] Market Performance - The lithium battery sector has seen a decline of 4.4% in the past two weeks, while the battery chemicals sector increased by 4.1% [8] - Key individual stocks have shown varied performance, with CATL down 1.5% and Hunan Youneng up 11.2% [8] New Energy Vehicle Data - In December 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.71 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% [4] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic market reached 52.3%, up 6.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] Charging Infrastructure - As of December 2025, the total number of public charging piles in China reached 4.717 million, with a total power of approximately 17,967 MW [24] - The utilization rate of public charging piles was approximately 6.96%, showing a slight decrease year-on-year [24]

Group 1: Market Impact - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield surpassed 4% on January 20, marking a historical high, with a single-day increase exceeding 25 basis points[1] - Japan's fiscal policy changes, including a supplementary budget expected to increase annual deficits by approximately 5 trillion yen, have raised concerns about sovereign credit risk[13] - The rise in Japanese bond yields has led to a significant capital repatriation effect, decreasing the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries for Japanese investors[14] Group 2: Asset Performance - From January 17 to January 24, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.63%, the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.36%, and the S&P 500 also dropped by 0.36%[15] - The U.S. dollar index declined by 1.88%, while the offshore yuan appreciated by 0.27% during the same period[15] - Gold prices increased by 7.27%, and silver prices rose by 9.04%, indicating a shift towards precious metals amidst market volatility[15] Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - The latest oil inventory stood at 44,684 million tons, an increase of 44,935 million tons from the previous week[26] - The latest week saw a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 1,926 contracts, while short positions increased by 762 contracts[31] - The gold ETF size rose to 34.93 million ounces, up by 30,000 ounces from the previous week[31]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 杭州银行（600926.SH）2025 年业绩快报点评 优于大市 高成长延续，资产质量优质 净利润实现延续两位数高增。公司披露 2025 年业绩快报，2025 年全年实现 营收 387.99 亿元，同比增长 1.1%，较前三季度增速小幅回落 0.3 个百分点。 实现归母净利润 190.30 亿元，同比增长 12.1%，较前三季度增速回落 2.5 个 百分点。 净利息收入增速亮眼，其他非息收入下降拖累营收。2025 年净利息收入同比 增长 12.8%，较前三季度增速提升 2.9 个百分点，表现亮眼，一是公司规模 维持高增，二是净息差企稳。全年非息收入同比下降 19.5%，较前三季度降 幅扩大了 5.5 个百分点，主要受其他非息收入同比大幅下降拖累。其中，手 续费及佣金净收入同比增长 13.1%，较前三季度增速提升了 0.5 个百分点； 其他非息收入同比下降 31%，较前三季度降幅扩大了 6 个百分点。我们判断 主要是今年债市波动较大导致交易账户公允价值出现明显亏损，另外，公司 在净利息收入实现较好增长下兑付存量债券收益的动力下降，因此在 2024 年高基数下出现大幅下降 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.4% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.1%[1] - Small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed with a gain of 0.2%, compared to large-cap value (Russell 1000 Value) which declined by 0.2%[1] - The energy sector saw a notable increase of 3.1%, while the banking sector experienced a decline of 2.8%[1] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 constituents was +$5.6 billion this week, up from -$1.7 billion last week[2] - Key sectors with inflows included automotive and auto parts (+$9.2 million) and semiconductor products (+$9.2 million)[2] - Significant outflows were observed in the financial sector, particularly in diversified financials (-$13.6 million) and capital goods (-$7.4 million)[2] Earnings Forecast - The forward 12-month EPS expectation for S&P 500 constituents increased by 0.2% this week, slightly down from 0.3% last week[3] - Notable upward revisions were seen in real estate (+2.0%) and semiconductor products (+0.7%), while the energy sector was revised down by 2.0%[3] - Risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policies[3]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月25日 2026年01月24日 港股市场速览 优于大市 中小盘与多数行业表现较优 股价表现：市场整体持平，权重股略有回撤 本周，恒生指数-0.4%，恒生综指-0.1%。风格方面，小盘（恒生小型股+1.6%） ＞中盘（恒生中型股+1.0%）＞大盘（恒生大型股-0.4%）。 主要概念指数分化。上涨的主要有恒生消费（+2.7%）；下跌的主要有恒生 生物科技（-2.8%）。 国信海外选股策略多数上涨。上涨的主要有 ROE 策略防御型（+3.4%）；下 跌的主要有红利贵族 50（-2.0%）。 22 个行业上涨，8 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：建材（+6.3%）、钢铁（+5.3%）、 电力设备及新能源（+5.1%）、有色金属（+4.9%）、综合（+4.6%）；下跌 的主要有：医药（-2.6%）、计算机（-2.4%）、纺织服装（-2.0%）、非银 行金融（-1.6%）、传媒（-1.5%）。 估值水平：整体小幅下降，多数行业提升 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）-0.8%至 11.8x； 恒生综指估值-0.1%至 11.9x。 主要概念指数估值分化。上升幅度较大的是 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 多资产周报 日债巨浪冲击全球市场 日债巨浪冲击全球市场。日本 40 年期国债收益率在 1 月 20 日突破 4%的 历史高位：（1）从原因上，日本财政货币政策变动是引发本轮日债抛 售的直接诱因。高市早苗政府计划推出远超预期的补充预算，几乎成为 "特拉斯"第二。同时，日本央行自 2024 年 3 月结束负利率以来，持 续推进缩表计划并减少国债购买。（2）从影响上看，日本长期以来是 全球最大的海外债主。当 40 年期日债利率回到 4%以上，叠加日元套息 交易的反转压力，产生了强烈的资金回流效应。随着日债利率大幅上行， 经汇率对冲后的美债吸引力对日本投资者而言显著下降。日本寿险公司 和养老金开始减少美债配置，甚至回流头寸以填补国内债市抛售带来的 流动性缺口，从而诱发美债跟随波动，并进而冲击全球金融市场稳定。 （3）往后看，益率的急剧上升促使日本加大口头干预,但日本央行增加 购买国债的可能性仍然很低。中期看，目前日元与利差背离，是因财政 担忧盖过了加息预期。一旦日本政府出面稳定赤字预期，日元可能瞬间 暴涨，引发比 2024 年 8 月更大规模的套息交易平仓，届时美债可能遭 遇 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 金融工程专题研究 汇安沪深 300 指数增强基金投资价值分析 沪深 300 指数由沪深市场中规模大、流动性好的具有代表性的 300 只证 券组成，汇聚了 A 股市场的核心资产，其长期表现受益于中国经济的稳 健增长与产业结构的持续优化升级。 成分股市值较大，龙头效应显著。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，沪深 300 指数成分股的平均市值达 2254.88 亿元，显著高于中证 500、科创 50 指数、创业板指等。前十大权重股占比合计为 23.08%，成分股权重较 为分散，平均总市值为 9428 亿元，均为各领域具有竞争力的龙头企业。 盈利持续增长，成长能力较强。指数 2024 年 EPS 增速为 3.76%，预计 2025 年增速为 5.43%，2026 年增速 11.46%；2024 年归母净利润增速 为 2.78%，预计 2025 年增速为 9.67%，2026 年增速 9.40%。 沪深 300 为宽基配置首选，指数产业结构持续优化升级。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，沪深 300 指数基金合计规模高达近 1.2 万亿元，占全部宽 基指数基金的比重 ...

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the target of around 5%[1] - The GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 fell to 4.5%, marking a new low in recent years[1] - Monthly GDP growth rates for October to December were approximately 4.5%, 4.3%, and 4.7% respectively, indicating signs of recovery in December[1] Structural Changes - A notable shift occurred in the economic structure: the secondary industry (industrial and construction sectors) saw a decline, while the tertiary industry (services) experienced growth[1] - The acceleration of the service sector is expected to create more jobs and increase income, providing sustainable support for domestic demand[1] Policy Outlook for 2026 - The newly announced fiscal and financial policies focus on stimulating private investment, with four out of six specific policies aimed at supporting private investment[2] - The emphasis on private investment over government-led infrastructure projects signals a shift towards "investing in people" rather than "investing in things"[2] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights potential risks from overseas market volatility, which could introduce uncertainties into the economic outlook[2] - Domestic consumption remains weak, with significant declines in key indicators such as movie ticket sales (down 26.9%) and automobile sales (down 32.0%) compared to the previous year[21] Trade and External Factors - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.23% year-on-year, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival[24] - Geopolitical risks are rising, potentially affecting global trade dynamics and pricing systems[25]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 规模高增，收益中枢下降，公募合作增加 ——2025 年银行理财年报点评 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | | 银行  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 孔祥 | 021-60375452 | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523060004 | | 证券分析师： | 陈俊良 | 021-60933163 | chenjunliang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980519010001 | | 证券分析师： | 王剑 | 021-60875165 | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980518070002 | 事项： 中国理财网发布《中国银行业理财市场半年报告（2025 年）》，我们分析需要注意的重点内容。这体现在： 一是规模显著增长，承接"存款搬家"与稳健理财需求。在利率市场化深化、存款利率持续下行的宏观背 景下，银行理财稳健和低波的特性使其成为居民储蓄的重要流向。2025 年理 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company continues to demonstrate high growth, with a net profit increase of 12.1% year-on-year, reaching 19.03 billion yuan in 2025 [1][2] - Net interest income showed a strong growth of 12.8%, while non-interest income declined by 19.5%, primarily due to significant losses in trading accounts [1][2] - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 502% [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the total revenue was 38.799 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [1] - The total assets reached 2.36 trillion yuan, with loans and deposits growing by 14.3% and 13.2% respectively [2] - The forecast for net profit in 2026 and 2027 has been adjusted to 21.3 billion yuan and 24.1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 12.0% and 13.2% respectively [2][4] Financial Metrics - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.03 yuan, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.90 [4][9] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 15.6% in 2025, with a return on assets (ROA) of 0.85% [9] - The dividend payout ratio is projected to increase, with a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.77 yuan in 2025 [9]