潮宏基（002345.SZ） 优于大市 强设计属性的黄金首饰产品驱动，一季度利润取得超 40%增长 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 2024 年剔除商誉减值影响后利润下滑 5%，2025 年一季度利润取得 44%的增 长。公司 2024 年营收 65.18 亿元，同比+10.48%，归母净利润 1.94 亿元， 同比-41.91%，剔除女包业务等商誉减值影响后，利润3.5亿元 ，同比-5.11%。 2025 年一季度公司加大强设计属性的首饰产品布局及门店形象设计，收入取 得 25.36%增长至 22.52 亿元，归母净利润增长 44.38%至 1.89 亿元。 黄金首饰产品增速领先，门店拓展及形象升级同步推进。分产品类型看，2024 年传统黄金产品收入 29.49 亿元，同比+30.21%，受益于古法等高设计产品 增长，2025 年一季度整体仍延续较好的增长趋势。2024 年时尚珠宝产品收 入 29.7 亿元，同比基本稳定。皮具在行业需求有所走弱下收入同比下降 27.38%至 2.7 亿元。门店方面，公司 2024 年净开店 111 家，以及打造潮宏 基移动博物馆概念新一代门店形象，强化年轻和东方时尚的品牌印记 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 招商银行（600036.SH）2025 年一季报点评 优于大市 净利息收入实现正增长，核心竞争力深化 业绩小幅负增。2025 年一季度实现营收 837.5 亿元，同比下降 3.1%，归母 净利润 372.9 亿元，同比下降 2.1%。年化后 ROAA 和 ROAE 分别为 1.21%和 14.13%，同比分别下降 0.14 个和 1.95 个百分点。 净利息收入增速转正，其他非息收入下降拖累营收。一季度净利息收入同比 增长 1.9%，较 2024 年全年增速提升了 3.5 个百分点；手续费净收入同比下 降 2.5%，其他非息收入同比下降 22.2%，主要是金融投资公允价值下降。 净息差同比降幅收窄，规模扩张稳健。公司披露的净息差 1.91%，同比下降 11bps，环比下降 3bps。其中，生息资产收益率同比下降 44bps，贷款收益 率同比下降 54bps；负债端，活期存款日均余额占比达到 50.5%，存款成本 率同比下降 34bps，计息负债成本率同比下降 36bps。期末资产总额 12.53 万亿元，贷款总额 7.13 万亿元，存款总额 9.32 万亿元，较年初分 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH） 优于大市 2024Q4+2025Q1 中低档酒降速调整，省内洞藏系列势能延续 2024 年收入稳健增长、净利率提升，2024Q4+2025Q1 调整降速。2024 年公司实 现收入 73.44 亿元/同比+8.5%，归母净利润 25.89 亿元/同比+13.4%；2024Q4 收 入 18.30 亿元/同比-5.0%，归母净利润 5.83 亿元/同比-4.9%；2025Q1 收入 20.47 亿元/同比-12.3%，归母净利润 8.29 亿元/同比-9.5%。2024Q4+2025Q1 看，收入 同比-9.0%，净利润同比-7.7%。 2024 年前高后低，洞藏系列增势延续。分产品看，2024 年中高档/普通白酒收入 57.13/12.90 亿元，同比+13.8%/-6.6%；其中中高档酒销量同比+9.3%，吨价同 比+4.1%；预计洞藏系列增势延续，全年仍增长双位数以上，洞 9、洞 6 增速更 快；结构升级推动酒类业务毛利率同比+2.73pcts。分区域看，2024 年省内/省 外市场收入 50.93/19.09 亿元，同比+12.8 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月29日 财富管理及资产管理：市场复苏叠加战略推进，财富管理及资产管理规模扩 张。2024 年 Q4 以来，A 股市场交投情绪显著恢复，同时公司加强精细化运 营，2024 年末财富管理客户超 1,580 万户，同比+12%；托管客户 AUM 突破 12 万亿元，同比+18%。资产管理方面，截至2024 年末，中信资管AUM15,424.46 亿元，同比+11.09%；截至2025Q1末，华夏基金管理非货币AUM合计11,282.55 亿元、居行业第 2，华夏基金 2025Q1 净利润 5.61 亿元，同比+8.4%。 风险提示：政策风险，资本市场波动，汇率波动，经济增速不及预期等。 投资建议：基于公司一季报数据及资本市场的表现，我们上调了公司经纪业 务增速、投资收益率等关键假设，并基于此将 2025-27 年归母净利润上调 5.6%、8.2%、10.6%。公司作为龙头券商，资本实力强劲、业务条线全面、 综合实力强劲、ROE 水平行业持续领先，我们对公司维持"优于大市"评级。 中信证券（600030.SH） 优于大市 投资收益高增，关注投行改善 公司发布 2025 年一季报。当季 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-04-29 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3286.65 | 9849.80 | 3775.07 | 10929.32 | 2661.27 | 1003.86 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.17 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.10 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4308.81 | 5912.02 | 1974.62 | 2184.02 | 2707.00 | 187.13 | $$\overline{{{\overline{{\mathbb{M}}}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 宏观快评:宏观解读报告-经济发展开局平稳——深圳市 2025 年一季度 经济数据跟踪与解读 固定收益投资策略:-债券投资策略：持券待涨 策略专题:中观高 ...

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [1][4][5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the rise of domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components driven by electric and intelligent trends [3][12][24] - The automotive industry is transitioning into a technological era, with significant advancements in electrification, intelligence, and connectivity [12][13] - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 2% for the domestic automotive market over the next 20 years, with a strong focus on electric vehicles [13][21] Monthly Production and Sales Data - In March, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 1.94 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% and a month-on-month increase of 40.2% [1] - Cumulative sales from January to March totaled 5.127 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [1] - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in March reached 1.128 million units, up 35.5% year-on-year and 35.9% month-on-month [1] Weekly Data - From April 14 to April 20, the number of new passenger vehicle registrations in China was 387,000, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% and a month-on-month increase of 12.1% [2] - Cumulative registrations for April (up to April 20) reached 732,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2] Market Performance - The CS automotive index increased by 4.98% during the week of April 21 to April 25, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.6 percentage points [2] - The year-to-date increase for the CS automotive index is 6.99% [2] Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Leap Motor (9863.HK) is rated "Outperform the Market" with an estimated EPS of -0.05 for 2025 and a PE ratio of -988 [4] - Geely (0175.HK) is rated "Outperform the Market" with an estimated EPS of 1.36 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 12 [4] - Xpeng Motors (9868.HK) is rated "Outperform the Market" with an estimated EPS of -0.84 for 2025 and a PE ratio of -93 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components, particularly in the context of electric and intelligent vehicles [3][12][24] - Specific recommendations include Leap Motor, Xpeng Motors, Geely, and Yutong Bus for complete vehicles, and companies like Coboda, Huayang Group, and Junsheng Electronics for intelligent components [3][12][24]

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Outperform" [1][4][5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the rise of domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components driven by electric and intelligent trends [3][12][24] - The industry is transitioning from a growth phase to maturity, with a projected annual compound growth rate of 2% over the next 20 years [13][21] - The report highlights the strong growth potential of new energy vehicles, with sales expected to exceed 1.5 million units by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of over 20% [24][28] Monthly Production and Sales Data - In March, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.94 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% and a month-on-month increase of 40.2% [1] - Cumulative sales from January to March totaled 5.127 million units, up 6.0% year-on-year [1] - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars in March reached 1.128 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [1] Weekly Data - From April 14 to April 20, the number of new passenger car registrations in China was 387,000, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [2] - Cumulative registrations for April (up to April 20) reached 732,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2] Market Performance - The CS automotive index increased by 4.98% during the week of April 21 to April 25, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.6 percentage points [2][5] - The report notes a strong performance in the automotive sector compared to broader market indices [2] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Li Auto, Xpeng Motors, Geely, and Leap Motor for strong new product cycles [3][4] - Companies in the intelligent sector such as Coboda, Huayang Group, and Junsheng Electronics [3] - Robotics companies like Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control [3] - Domestic alternatives such as Xingyu Co., Fuyao Glass, and Horizon Robotics [3][4] Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Profit forecasts for key companies indicate a positive outlook, with several companies rated as "Outperform" [4][5] - The report provides detailed earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, indicating growth potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [8][9]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming peak season for refrigerants driven by summer heat, with active trading in a low inventory context [2][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in refrigerant prices, with R32 reaching 48,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [2][24]. - The implementation of the Montreal Protocol's national plan is expected to tighten supply and enhance the long-term outlook for refrigerant prices, particularly for R22 and R32 [4][56]. Summary by Sections 1. April Fluorochemical Industry Performance - As of April 28, 2025, the fluorochemical index stood at 1,232.89 points, down 2.60% from March, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 0.63 percentage points [1][16]. 2. April Refrigerant Market Review 2.1 Refrigerant Price and Spread Performance - Prices for refrigerants have shown an upward trend, with R32 and R410a experiencing significant month-on-month increases of 14% and 9% respectively in March [22][24]. - The report notes that R22 prices are stable at 36,000 yuan/ton, while R134a remains at 47,000 yuan/ton [24]. 2.2 Refrigerant Export Data Tracking - In Q1 2025, R32 exports increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while R22 exports decreased by 38.4% [31]. - March saw a significant rebound in export volumes, with R22 and R32 experiencing month-on-month growth of 165% and 150% respectively [31][32]. 2.3 Major Refrigerant Operating Rates and Production Data Tracking - The report indicates that production quotas for R22 have been reduced by 28% compared to 2024, reflecting tighter supply constraints [58]. 3. Implementation of the Montreal Protocol National Plan - The national plan aims to reduce HCFCs production and usage by 67.5% and 73.2% respectively by 2025, with a complete phase-out by 2030 [4][56]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing commitment to reducing HFCs, with a target of a 10% reduction by 2029 [4][56]. 4. Air Conditioning/Automobile/Refrigerator Production and Export Data Tracking 4.1 Air Conditioning - The report notes a continuous year-on-year increase in air conditioning production for Q2 2025, with domestic production expected to rise significantly [5][65]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as having strong profit growth prospects, with Juhua Co. expected to achieve a net profit of 1.52 yuan per share in 2025 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][24]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.252 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.74%, and a net profit of 1.344 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 84.07% [9][24]. - The growth in the company's active optical devices is significantly driven by the development of AI, with both active and passive optical products experiencing rapid growth [16][21]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D and innovation, particularly in the field of optical devices, benefiting from a new round of optical communication technology iterations [3][21]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 4.806 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 47.8%, and a net profit of 1.951 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 45.2% [4][29]. - The revenue from passive optical devices is expected to grow at a rate of 33.1% in 2024, while active optical devices are projected to grow by 135.6% [27][29]. Financial Metrics - The overall gross margin for the company is projected to increase by 3.02 percentage points to 57.29% in 2024, with passive optical devices contributing a gross margin of 68.41% and active devices at 46.69% [2][21]. - The company's net asset return (ROE) is expected to reach 33.8% in 2024 and 39.4% in 2025 [4][29]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its global business layout, with a new factory in Thailand expected to be completed by the end of April 2024, which will support ongoing capacity expansion [3][21]. - The company has accumulated several globally leading core process technologies in basic materials through self-research and acquisitions, positioning itself well in the market [3][21].