Market Review - The equity market has steadily risen, leading to a double boost in convertible bond parity valuation [5][20] - AI has been a continuous theme throughout the year, with a mid-year shift towards anti-involution, resulting in phase-specific performances in consumption, pharmaceuticals, and finance [9][20] - The average conversion premium rate of convertible bonds has been analyzed, showing a support for price recovery due to the exit of bottom-tier stocks and the influx of capital [12][20] Trend Analysis - The current bull market is seen as a continuation, with a focus on leveraging subjective advantages to capture changes in performance inflection points [5][20] - The passive investment trend is deepening, with the amount of convertible bonds in products determining market outcomes [16][20] - The relationship between equity and debt markets is crucial, with low interest rates in the bond market and a "small rise" era in the stock market indicating ongoing bullish potential [27][20] Convertible Bond Strategies - Traditional price-based strategies have limited space, with bonds that have a "debt floor" lacking room for growth [15][20] - The "downward adjustment speculation" strategy benefits from issuers lowering conversion prices, enhancing conversion value and bond prices [15][20] - The expansion of convertible bond ETFs and their correlation with market performance highlight the impact of passive investment on market aesthetics [20][20] Investor Behavior - Public funds have become the largest holders of convertible bonds, increasing their holdings significantly, while other institutions have seen declines due to market contraction [43][20] - The shift in investor structure indicates a growing preference for absolute returns, with insurance and brokerage firms reducing their positions during rapid price increases [40][20]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 社会服务行业双周报（第 119 期） 优于大市 三亚发放新一轮免税消费券，2026 届预计新增 48 万普通高校毕业生 板块复盘：消费者服务板块报告期内下跌 2.03%，跑赢大盘 2.78pct。报告 期内（2025 年 11 月 10 日-11 月 23 日），国信社服板块涨幅居前的股票为 百胜中国（9.53%）、科德教育（9.20%）、锦江酒店（8.99%）、华住集团 -S（8.69%）、云南旅游（6.96%）、君亭酒店、首旅酒店、米奥会展、兰生 股份、长白山。国信社服板块跌幅居前的股票为呷哺呷哺（-20.20%）、中 国东方教育（-13.28%）、全聚德（-11.93%）、新高教集团（-11.67%）岭 南控股（-11.26%）、学大教育、澳博控股、豆神教育、海伦司、东方甄选。 行业与公司动态：三亚启动第六期免税消费券发放，通过 CDF 三亚国际免税 城、三亚海旅免税城等四家主要免税店的微信小程序发放；2026 届全国普 通高校毕业生规模预计达 1270 万人，同比增长 48 万人，教育部已部署开展 促就业行动；外交部提醒中国公民近期避免前往日本旅游，或冬季出境 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 优于大市 Q3 延续绩优表现，海外份额扩张蓄力中线空间 Q3 旺季收入增速环比平稳，主业利润增速环比改善。2025Q3 公司收入 183.4 亿元/+15.5%，好于彭博预期的 14.6%，环比上半年的 16%增速维持基本稳定； Non-GAAP 归母净利润 191.56 亿元/+221.2%，主要系出售 Makemytrip 带来其 他收益贡献；其中主业相关的经调整 EBITDA 为 63.5 亿元/+11.7%，环比提 速，好于彭博预期的+4.8%，对应利润率为 34.6%/-1.2pct。今年以来海外投 入及占比提升致利润率同比回落，但公司凭借优异执行力带来良好表现。 收入拆分：国内与出境自由行份额继续提升，海外 Trip.com 增势不减。 2025Q3 公司住宿预订收入 80.5 亿元/+18.3%，交通票务收入 63.1 亿元 /+11.6%，旅游度假收入 16.1 亿元/+3.1%，商旅管理收入 7.6 亿元/+15.2%， 其他收入 16.5 亿元/+33.9%。分区域看：1）估算 Q3 国内收入同比增长约 10%， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in Q3, with revenue exceeding guidance and a notable increase in performance compared to previous quarters. The hotel revenue for Q3 reached approximately 30.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [11] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in Q4, with projected revenue growth of 2-6% and domestic growth of 3-7%. The anticipated growth in franchise revenue is between 17-21% year-on-year [14][15] - The company is focusing on optimizing revenue management and strengthening direct sales channels, which has led to a slight recovery in domestic RevPAR, with a mixed RevPAR of 256 yuan, down only 0.1% year-on-year [12] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Q3 revenue was 6.96 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous guidance of 2-6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase year-on-year [11] - The company’s domestic same-store RevPAR decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, showing a gradual recovery compared to earlier quarters [12] Membership and Revenue Management - The number of members in the company's loyalty program exceeded 300 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%. Member bookings increased by 19.7%, accounting for 74% of total room nights [12] - The company has successfully implemented revenue management strategies, resulting in a positive year-on-year growth in average daily rate (ADR) of 0.9% [12] Expansion and Profitability - The company opened 2,038 new stores and closed 483, resulting in a net increase of 1,555 stores. The total number of operating hotels reached 12,600, with a market share estimated at 11% [13] - Franchise revenue and gross operating profit (GOP) increased by 27.4% and 28.6% year-on-year, respectively, while direct store revenue and GOP decreased by 5.5% and 24.7% [13] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a stable or slight increase in domestic RevPAR in Q4, with overall core indicators expected to maintain a healthy development trend [14] - The management expects to exceed the initial target of opening 2,300 new hotels by the end of the year, supported by improved signing and conversion rates [13] Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue growth projections for 2025-2027, expecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, 5.8%, and 6.2%, respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 4.44 billion, 5.17 billion, and 5.78 billion yuan for the same period [15]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 网易-S（09999.HK） 优于大市 递延收入增长 25%，经典游戏优异展现长期运营能力 收入同比上升 8%，销售费率环比继续所上升。25Q3，公司实现营收 284 亿 元，同比上升 8%。Non-GAAP 归母净利润 95 亿元，同比增长 27%；Non-GAAP 归母净利率 33.5%，同比提升 5pct。25Q3，公司综合毛利率 64.1%，同 比上升 1.2pct，网易云音乐毛利率同比提升 2.6pct。25Q3，公司总经 营费率为 36%，同比上升 0.2pct，环比上升 4pct。其中销售费率 15.7%， 同比上升 1pct，环比提升 3pct，游戏及相关增值服务市场推广支出增 加。我们预计 25Q4 销售费率环比略下降。 游戏：《梦幻西游》等经典游戏展现长期价值。2025Q3，在线游戏业务收 入为 228 亿元，同比增长 13%。递延收入表现良好，25Q3 网易递延收入 195 亿元，同比增长 25%。25Q3 老游戏表现优异，公司持续布局全球化。 1）多款经典游戏持续受到玩家欢迎，体现了网易游戏强劲的长线运营 能力。自三季度起，《梦幻西游》电脑版的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4][35]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of AI on the advertising business, cloud computing, and operational efficiency of internet giants, with a focus on the return on investment (ROI) from substantial capital expenditures [3][32]. - Domestic companies face less capital expenditure pressure compared to overseas counterparts, and AI is expected to drive notable improvements in operational efficiency for companies like Tencent, Tencent Music, and Kuaishou [3][32]. Summary by Sections Company Dynamics - Google launched the new image generation and editing model, NANO BANANA PRO, which integrates multi-modal understanding capabilities and can process up to 14 input images while maintaining consistency [18]. - Alibaba announced the "Qianwen" project, entering the AI to C market, with its app quickly rising to the third position in the Apple App Store free applications chart within two days of public testing [21]. - The AI agent trading market MuleRun released version 2.0, surpassing 500,000 users within a month of launch [26]. Underlying Technology - Google’s Gemini 3 Pro achieved a score of 1501 Elo, ranking first in the LMArena large model arena, significantly outperforming its predecessor, Gemini 2.5 Pro, in various AI benchmark tests [25]. - The AI agent trading market MuleRun has seen rapid user growth, indicating strong market interest in AI-driven solutions [26]. Industry Policy - Guangdong aims to cultivate AI and Web 3.0 technologies, targeting an AI core industry scale exceeding 440 billion yuan by 2027, with a computing power scale surpassing 60 EFLOPS [29][30]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the application of "AI + manufacturing" to enhance productivity and support the deployment of intelligent manufacturing equipment [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI-driven companies, specifically Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Baidu Group, Meitu, and Tencent Music, which are expected to benefit from AI integration and operational efficiency improvements [3][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][5][48] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 102%. The sales volume reached 116,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 149.3% [2][11] - The company is focusing on developing a new paradigm for future mobility through physical AI, with significant advancements in its second-generation VLA system and plans for Robotaxi and humanoid robots [4][30][41] - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 88.5 billion, 128 billion, and 147.2 billion RMB respectively, while projecting net profits of -1.6 billion, 2.7 billion, and 4.7 billion RMB for the same years [5][48] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 20.1%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -1.9%, improving by 16 percentage points year-on-year [3][14] - The automotive sales revenue for Q3 2025 was 18.05 billion RMB, up 105.3% year-on-year, while service and other income reached 2.33 billion RMB, up 78.1% year-on-year [2][11] - The company’s R&D expense ratio was 11.9%, down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved cost efficiency [3][14] Sales and Delivery Guidance - The company delivered 42,000 vehicles in October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 76%, and expects to deliver between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 36.6% to 44.3% [4][20] - The sales volume for Q3 2025 was 116,000 units, with a breakdown of sales by model indicating strong performance across various models [21][20] Technological Advancements - The second-generation VLA system integrates vision and language processing, significantly enhancing the efficiency and responsiveness of the company's autonomous driving capabilities [30][34] - The company plans to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026, leveraging a pure vision approach without reliance on lidar or high-definition maps [36][40] - The new humanoid robot, IRON, is designed for various commercial applications and features advanced AI capabilities, including a unique energy system for enhanced safety and performance [41][44]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 金融工程专题研究 量化赋能中盘宽基，精筑稳健超额 Alpha——博时中证 500 增强策略 ETF 投资价值分析 指数增强型 ETF：指增策略新载体 指数增强型 ETF 作为指数增强策略的创新型产品，近年来持续扩容。指增 ETF 产品在资金使用效率、交易灵活性、费率结构和持仓透明度等方面相较 传统场外指数增强基金具有明显优势。截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日，全市场共 有 51 只指数增强策略 ETF，总规模 95.73 亿元，其中跟踪中证 500 的指数 增强 ETF 共 7 只，规模达到 25.92 亿元。 中证 500 指增产品持续扩容，历史超额收益较为稳健 中证 500 指数由剔除沪深 300 后市值靠前的 500 只股票构成，其行业分布 相对分散，当前估值处于历史均值以下，长期收益与中证 1000 接近，整体 弹性大于上证 50 和沪深 300，是具备成长性与分散度的中盘代表指数。 中证 500 是公募较早开始布局增强策略的核心标的之一，其产品数量和规模 均居前。截至 2025Q3，中证 500 指增基金规模达 493.46 亿元，规模占比 超全部增强 ...

投资建议：考虑到 GB 系列产品与网络连接出货积极，Rubin 将于 26H2 启动量产，同时下游 AI 需求持续旺盛，我们上调收入预期，预计 2026-2028 财年 公 司收 入为 2130/3335/4279 亿美 元，上 调幅度 为 4%/23%/40%。预计 2026-2028 财年公司净利润为 1141/1876/2352 亿美 元，上调幅度为 11%/28%/40%，维持"优于大市"评级。 风险提示：下游 AI 应用发展与 ROI 低于预期；Blackwell 供应链风险；AI 芯片竞争加剧；宏观与地缘风险。 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 英伟达(NVIDIA)（NVDA.O） 需求保持高景气度，Rubin 将于 26H2 启动量产 优于大市 财务表现：需求保持高景气度，FY26Q4 指引强劲。①整体：英伟达三季 度（均指财季，下同）收入 570.06 亿美元（同比+62%，环比+22%）， 高于公司此前540（±2%）亿美元指引。GAAP毛利率73.4%（同比-1.2pcts， 环比+1pcts）。营业利润同比+65%至 360 亿美元，GAAP 净利润同比+65% 至 319 亿 ...

Employment Data Overview - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August[2] - The combined job additions for July and August were revised down by 33,000[5] Sector Performance - The private sector contributed 97,000 jobs, with notable gains in education and healthcare (59,000 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (47,000 jobs)[11] - Manufacturing, mining, and transportation sectors continued to decline, with losses of 6,000, 3,000, and 25,300 jobs respectively[12] - The construction sector showed improvement, adding 19,000 jobs, reversing previous declines[12] Wage and Inflation Insights - Average hourly earnings in the service sector increased by 3.8% year-on-year, while goods-producing sectors saw a 4.0% increase[24] - Overall wage growth lacks significant upward momentum, indicating limited inflationary pressure from wages[24] Federal Reserve Outlook - The September non-farm data is critical for the December FOMC meeting, influencing interest rate decisions[4] - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut in December, though internal divisions within the Fed complicate the decision[26] - The recent data, while positive, may not be sufficient to shift the Fed's stance decisively towards rate cuts[26]