证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 固收+系列报告之三：固收+基金季报分析 三季度业绩向好，规模大幅增长 杠杆率：杠杆率方面，三季度末整体法口径下固收+基金平均杠杆率为 1.16，较上季度末增加了 0.03。平均法口径下固收+基金平均杠杆率为 1.16，较上季度末增加了 0.03。 基金净值增长率：净增长率方面，2025 年三季度固收+基金单季平均净值 增长率为 3.27%，增长率较上季度增加。按基金类型分，本季度表现最 好的"固收+"基金为可转换债券基金，净值增长率为 15.3%，其次为平 衡混合型基金，净值增长率为 11.5%。 大类资产配置：资产配置方面，截至三季度末，债券资产占比最高，达 85.4%，较上季度回落 2.7%，其中可转债占 8.5%（较二季度减少 0.9%）， 不含可转债的其他债券资产占 77.0%（较二季度减少 1.8%）；股票资产 占比次之，为 10.3%，较上季度增加 2.3%；买入返售资产占 1.9%，较上 季度回升 0.5%；银行存款和其他资产分别占总资产的 1.4%和 0.9%，占 比较上季度均有所下降，分别减少 0.2%和 0.1%；基金资产占比最低， 为 0.1%， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][19][22] Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in net profit, with a 51% year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, driven by the continuous ramp-up of passive safety systems and cost optimization [2][8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 remained stable at 29.1%, with expectations of steady improvements in airbag and steering wheel business margins due to scale effects and increased self-manufacturing rates [3][10] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rise of domestic automotive brands, with a projected global market size for passenger vehicle passive safety systems exceeding 100 billion yuan [4][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, a 40% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 260 million yuan, up 37.9% [2][8] - In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 690 million yuan, reflecting a 35.4% year-on-year increase and a 12.1% quarter-on-quarter increase, with net profit at 102 million yuan, up 50.9% year-on-year [2][8] Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 29.1%, showing slight improvement year-on-year, with effective cost control reflected in stable expense ratios [3][10] - Sales expense ratio was 1.2%, down 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while management expense ratio was 3.4%, up slightly [3][10] Market Position and Product Development - The company is expanding its product matrix with airbags and steering wheels, enhancing the per-vehicle value from approximately 200 yuan to potentially 1,000-1,500 yuan as it upgrades to a full passive safety system supplier [4][19] - The company has established partnerships with various domestic brands and is also targeting foreign brands, expanding its customer base significantly [18][19] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 390 million yuan, 520 million yuan, and 700 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside EPS projections of 1.22 yuan, 1.64 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [4][19][23]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 中国中免（601888.SH） 优于大市 Q3 收入与毛利率双企稳，政策红利助推全渠道盈利潜力 2025Q3 公司收入拐点初现，首次发布中期分红。2025Q3 公司营业收入 117.11 亿元/-0.38%；归母净利润 4.52 亿元/-28.94%；扣非净利润 4.41 亿元 /-30.56%。前三季度收入 398.62 亿元/-7.34%，归母净利润 30.52 亿元 /-22.13%，扣非净利润 30.36 亿元/-21.60%。伴随促内需政策尤其免税方向 的利好政策接踵而至，以及资本市场效应下高端消费修复，公司收入企稳初 现；利润端受机场免税恢复后销售费用以及汇兑损益等扰动。此外，公司拟 向全体股东每股派发现金红利 0.25 元，对应前三季度利润分红率约 16.95%。 收入端：海南免税逐步企稳，线下口岸免税恢复向好，线上业务竞争仍存。 分业务来看，海南与口岸线下销售趋势向好。Q3 海南免税行业销售额同比减 少 2.63%，购物人次同比减少 14.26%，客单价同比增加 13.56%；其中 9 月行 业销售额同比转正，考虑公司市占率稳中有升表现，预计海南市场收 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 吉比特（603444.SH） 优于大市 新品推动第三季度收入增长 129%，看好新游持续贡献增量 2025 第三季度新品拉动收入同比上升 129%。1）2025 年前三季度，公司收入 44.9 亿元，同比增长 59.1%；其中，《问道手游》流水同比下滑 7.0%至 16.1 亿，《杖剑传说（大陆版）》、《问剑长生（大陆版）》、《杖剑传说（境 外版）》、《道友来挖宝》流水分别为 11.7、7.1、4.8、3.2 亿元；归母净 利润 12.1 亿元，同比增长 84.6%。2）单看第三季度，公司的营业收入为 19.7 亿元，同比增长 129.2%；归母净利润 5.7 亿元，同比增长 307.7%。 新品上线带动毛利率同比增长 5.6 个百分点。2025 年第三季度，公司的毛利 率 94.6%，同比增长 5.6 个百分点；费用率整体下降 12.5 个百分点至 50.5%， 销售/管理/财务/研发费用率分别为 30.9%/5.8%/-0.5%/14.4%，分别同比 +2.0/-4.2/-2.3/-8.0 个百分点，主要由于新品上线买量费用上升。 《杖剑传说》表现优异，《道友来挖 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][25] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.4 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2025, which met expectations. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 312.5 billion yuan (down 4.2% year-on-year) and a net profit of 101.97 billion yuan (down 12.6% year-on-year), primarily due to declining oil prices [1][11] - The company's oil and gas production reached a new high, with a net production of 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. Domestic production accounted for 69.3% of total production, benefiting from contributions from various oil and gas fields [2][14] - The company maintained stable capital expenditures, with a total of 86 billion yuan spent in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 9.8% year-on-year. The full-year capital expenditure is expected to remain unchanged at 125-135 billion yuan [3][21] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 312.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 101.97 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw revenue of 104.9 billion yuan (up 5.7% year-on-year) and a net profit of 32.4 billion yuan (down 12.2% year-on-year) [1][11] - The average realized price for oil liquids was 68.3 USD/barrel (down 13.6% year-on-year), while the average gas price was 7.86 USD/thousand cubic feet (up 1.0% year-on-year) [19][2] Production and Operations - The company achieved a net production of 193.7 million barrels of oil equivalent in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year. The total net production for the first three quarters was 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, with domestic production at 400.8 million barrels (up 8.6% year-on-year) [2][14] - The company successfully evaluated 22 oil and gas structures and made five new discoveries in the first three quarters of 2025, with four new projects launched in the third quarter [3][21] Investment Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 126.3 billion yuan, 129.7 billion yuan, and 135 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.66, 2.73, and 2.84 yuan [4][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The new tax policy for gold aims to clarify the usage of gold raw materials and implement differentiated tax management, guiding market participants to reduce speculative behavior and promote healthy competition within the industry [2] - The policy changes are expected to benefit leading companies with strong brand and product capabilities, such as Cai Bai Co. and China Gold, while potentially impacting the procurement and liquidity of physical gold for certain enterprises [2][3] - The tax policy adjustments are likely to enhance the competitive edge of leading enterprises, ensuring stable profit margins through differentiated products and service levels [3][16] Summary by Sections Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses of gold, with specific tax implications for each category [4][10] - For investment purposes, the core change is that member units can only issue ordinary invoices to buyers, which cannot be used to deduct input tax, potentially increasing tax costs for businesses [4][7] - For non-investment purposes, the tax treatment shifts from "immediate tax refund" to "tax exemption," which reduces the financial burden on companies but increases the actual VAT payable due to a lower deduction rate [10][11] Impact on Companies - Listed gold jewelry companies, primarily engaged in jewelry retail, may face increased tax costs under the new regulations, but their core competitiveness will still rely on product and service quality [14][16] - The new tax regulations may lead to a shift in consumer purchasing behavior, encouraging purchases from member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange [7][15] Recommendations - It is recommended to continue monitoring companies that engage in both investment gold and jewelry sales, such as Cai Bai Co., Lao Pu Gold, and traditional leaders like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings, as they are expected to maintain stable profit margins due to their strong market positions and product differentiation [16]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 走势与业绩均有较大分化 价格走势：大盘成长独力带动市场上行 本周，标普 500 涨 0.7%，纳斯达克涨 2.2%。 风格方面：大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长+1.8%）＞小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长 -0.4%）＞大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值-0.9%）＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值 -2.4%）。 9 个行业上涨，14 个行业下跌，1 个基本持平。上涨的主要有：半导体产品 与设备（+6.2%）、零售业（+5.5%）、汽车与汽车零部件（+4.4%）、技术 硬件与设备（+2.9%）、运输（+2.6%）；下跌的主要有：耐用消费品与服装 （-5.7%）、商业和专业服务（-5.5%）、食品饮料与烟草（-4.6%）、消费 者服务（-3.9%）、房地产（-3.8%）。 资金流向：整体流出，行业分化较大 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为-40.5（亿美元， 下同），上周为+65.6，近 4 周为+76.3，近 13 周为+692.1。 8 个行业资金流入，16 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：半导体产品与 设备（+77. ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 兴业银行（601166.SH）2025 年三季报点评 中性 业绩保持正增长，资产质量稳健 净利润保持正增长。2025 年前三季度实现营收 1612 亿元，同比下降 1.82%， 较半年度收窄 0.47 个百分点，第三季度同比下降 0.78%；实现归母净利润 631 亿元，同比增长 0.12%。 净利息收入同比降幅收窄，其他非息降幅处在同业较好水平。前三季度净利 息收入同比下降 0.56%，较上半年收窄约 0.96 个百分点，主要是资产规模同 比增速略有提升。手续费及佣金净收入同比增长 3.79%， 较上半年扩大 1.2 个百分点；其他非息净收入同比下降 9.28%，降幅处于同业较好水平。 规模小幅扩张，客户质量稳步提升。期末资产总额 10.67 万亿元，贷款总额 5.99 万亿元，存款总额 5.83，较年初分别增长 1.57%、4.42%、和 5.47%； 其中，绿色贷款、科技贷款、制造业中长期贷款较年初分别增长 18.64%、 17.70%和 13.82%，三张名片保持特色。期末零售客户 1.14 亿户，较年初增 长 3.4%，双金客户和私行客户交年初分了增长 10 ...

港股市场速览 优于大市 价格整体回调，业绩平稳上修 股价表现：多数行业与风格出现回撤 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 9 个行业上涨，21 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：电力设备及新能源（+2.6%）、 有色金属（+2.4%）、农林牧渔（+2.0%）、医药（+0.9%）、银行（+0.8%）； 下跌的主要有：纺织服装（-4.9%）、电子（-4.8%）、机械（-3.9%）、建 筑（-2.7%）、房地产（-2.5%）。 估值水平：市场估值回落 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）-1.8%至 11.9x； 恒生综指估值-1.7%至 11.9x。 主要概念指数估值多数下降。估值上升的主要有恒生生物科技（+0.1%至 27.3x）；估值下降的主要有恒生消费（-3.7%至 14.2x）。 国信海外选股策略估值多数下降。估值上升的主要有 ROE 策略进攻型（+1.3% 至 15.2x）；估值下降的主要有 ROE 策略防御型（-2.3%至 14.1）。 5 个行业估值上升，24 个行业估值下降。估值上升的主要有：农林牧渔 （+1.0%）、电力设备及新能源（+0.7%）、有色金属（+0.4%）、交通 ...

库存方面，最新一周原油库存为 44355 万吨，较上周上升 278 万吨；螺 纹钢库存为 467 万吨，较上周上升 4 万吨；阴极铜库存为 109690 吨， 较上周上升 14656 吨；电解铝库存为 62 万吨，较上周上升 2 万吨。 资金行为方面，、最新一周美元多头持仓 14032 张，较上周上升 1541 张，空头持仓 24376 张，较上周下降 1009 张；黄金 ETF 规模 3341 万盎 司，较上周下降 24 万盎司。 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 多资产周报 如何看待铜价创历史新高？ 如何看待铜价创历史新高？（1）库存扭曲直接放大铜波动。今年特朗普 政府时期的关税博弈引发全球铜库存"西进运动"，大量铜资源从 LME 仓库转移至美国商品期货交易委员会（COMEX）体系，导致 LME 库存持 续处于历史低位。库存低位直接放大了价格波动性，极易引发交易层面 的流动性风险。一方面，低库存环境下，少量交易订单即可推动价格大 幅波动，10 月印尼 Grasberg 铜矿停产事件中，LME 铜价单日涨幅超 3% 便印证了这一点；另一方面，库存分布的区域失衡加剧了挤仓风险，欧 洲地区库存占比不足 ...