Group 1: Internet Industry and AI - The report highlights the rapid development of AI models, with OpenAI leading the acceleration in 2023, benefiting Microsoft through exclusive partnerships, resulting in significant valuation increases [11][12] - In 2024, the market is expected to underestimate the progress of AI models, shifting focus towards reasoning capabilities, with companies like Meta leveraging their social ecosystem for potential growth [11][12] - By 2025, the gap between AI models and OpenAI is expected to narrow, with Google catching up due to its ecosystem advantages, while the demand for model inference is anticipated to surge [11][12][13] Group 2: Mechanical Industry and AI Infrastructure - SoftBank completed a $40 billion investment in OpenAI, indicating strong capital flow into AI infrastructure, which is expected to drive demand in related industries [17][18] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the gas turbine and liquid cooling sectors, with companies like 博盈特焊 positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI data centers [18][19] - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a long-term investment opportunity, with companies like 蓝箭航天 preparing for IPOs, reflecting the industry's growth trajectory [17][19] Group 3: Guizhou Moutai - Guizhou Moutai is actively pursuing market-oriented reforms to address supply-demand mismatches, with initiatives aimed at enhancing product structure and pricing strategies [23] - The company anticipates stable performance during the Spring Festival sales period, with a projected revenue growth of 5.3% for 2025, supported by improved distributor profitability [23] - Long-term, the market-oriented reforms are expected to strengthen consumer engagement and maintain the company's competitive edge in production and brand value [23] Group 4: 博盈特焊 (Boyin Welding) - 博盈特焊 is recognized as a leading enterprise in overlay welding equipment, with a focus on expanding overseas markets and new business lines [24][25] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for heat recovery steam generators (HRSG) and oil and gas composite pipes, with significant growth expected in these sectors [24][25][26] - The report forecasts a cumulative demand for HRSG in overseas markets to reach approximately 500-800 billion yuan over the next 3-5 years, driven by the AI industry's growth and the gas turbine sector's upcycle [25][26]

证券研究报告 | 2026年1月5日 超长债周报 TL 崩盘式下跌再创新低 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周财政工作会议提到扩大财政支出盘子，12 月制造业 PMI 回升 0.9 至 50.1，4 月以来首次重返荣枯线，长期限品种收益率上行， 超长债再度暴跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度变化不大，交投非 常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走阔，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 12 月 31 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 40BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，11 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 11 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，增速较 10 月回落 0.1%。通 胀方面，11 月 CPI 为 0.7%，PPI 为-2.2%，通缩风险有所缓解。我们认 为，当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主 要来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度并无增发国债，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速快速回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。同时从中 央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发 展，经济总量"稳中求进"的重要性次 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry report is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - MiniMax is a global large model company that has served over 200 countries and regions, with more than 200 million individual users and over 100,000 enterprise clients. The company's overseas revenue accounts for 73%, with significant contributions from Singapore and the United States [2][4] - The company has a strong focus on AI applications, particularly in video and audio, positioning itself in the first tier globally. MiniMax has launched the first MoE (Mixture of Experts) large model in China and is prioritizing multimodal integration in its strategy [2][3] - MiniMax's revenue has seen significant growth, with a 175% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, driven primarily by its AI video and open platform products [2][20] Summary by Sections Company Overview - MiniMax was established at the end of 2021 and has rapidly expanded its services globally, leveraging technology innovation, efficient operations, and a global strategy [6][14] - The company has a diverse product portfolio, including AI video generation (Hailuo AI), AI companionship (Talkie), and an open platform for API services, which contribute significantly to its revenue [15][20] Financial Performance - In 2024, MiniMax's revenue was $30.52 million, and in the first nine months of 2025, it reached $53.44 million, marking a 175% increase year-on-year. The revenue contributions from the open platform, Hailuo AI, and Talkie are 29%, 33%, and 35%, respectively [20] - The gross margin turned positive in 2024, and by the first nine months of 2025, it reached 23%, with a significant reduction in net losses from $244.24 million in 2024 to $186.28 million in 2025 [20][17] Market Position - MiniMax ranks as the fourth largest pure-play large model technology company globally, with a market share of 0.3% based on 2024 revenue. The company is the only Chinese startup in the top ten [42][46] - The global large model market is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching $220 billion by 2025, indicating a strong potential for MiniMax's growth in this sector [41] Product and Technology - MiniMax's AI products, particularly in video and audio, are recognized for their high performance and cost-effectiveness. The Hailuo AI video generation platform is noted for its dual-mode capabilities, enhancing its application across various scenarios [56][57] - The Speech-02 model is highlighted for its low latency and high-quality audio generation, ranking second globally in the voice model category [59][60]

- No quantitative models or factors were mentioned in the provided content

Core Insights - The 2026 home appliance national subsidy policy is expected to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize retail sales, particularly in the white goods sector [2][3][20] - The policy continues to support the replacement of old appliances with new ones, focusing on six major categories, including refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners, with a subsidy of 15% of the product price, capped at 1500 yuan per item [3][21][22] - The white goods production in January showed a positive trend, with a total output of 34.53 million units, representing a 6% year-on-year increase, driven by the national subsidy policy [4][24] Monthly Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - The national subsidy policy for 2026 aims to boost the replacement demand for home appliances, which is expected to support domestic sales [20][21] - January's white goods production saw a recovery, with air conditioner production increasing by 11% year-on-year, indicating a potential stabilization in demand [4][24] - In November, the domestic sales of major appliances faced pressure due to high base effects from the previous year, but exports of refrigerators and washing machines showed good growth [5][32] Key Data Tracking - In December, the home appliance sector experienced a relative return of -1.06% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.28% [34] - The prices of raw materials such as copper and aluminum increased by 13.5% and 4.8% respectively in December, while cold-rolled steel prices decreased by 3.2% [36] - The shipping index for major routes showed a mixed performance, with the West America route down by 6.4% and the Europe route up by 4.8% [45] Key Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights key companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL, and Gree Electric as strong performers in the white goods sector, with recommendations for investment based on their resilience and growth potential [14][15][54] - The home appliance industry is expected to face challenges due to high inflation in overseas markets and geopolitical tensions, but leading companies are adapting by enhancing local production capabilities [50][51]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月05日 油气行业 2025 年 12 月月报 优于大市 受俄乌、委内瑞拉地缘政治博弈影响，12 月油价震荡下跌 12 月油价回顾： 2025 年 12 月布伦特原油期货均价为 61.6 美元/桶，环比下跌 2.0 美元/ 桶，月末收于 60.9 美元/桶；WTI 原油期货均价 57.9 美元/桶，环比下 跌 1.6 美元/桶，月末收于 57.4 美元/桶。12 月上旬，俄罗斯友谊输油 管道遭袭击，俄乌和平计划陷入僵局，加之美联储降息预期上升，油价 震荡上行；12 月中旬，IEA 称明年供应过剩规模较大，多方进行会谈推 进俄乌和平协议，市场担忧供应过剩加剧，油价下跌并触及年内低点； 12 月下旬，美国对委内瑞拉封锁，欧盟对俄影子舰队实施新制裁，引发 市场供应担忧，叠加美国经济数据强劲，油价连续上涨，12 月末美乌计 划再次举行会晤，俄乌和平协议或加剧供应过剩担忧，油价震荡下跌。 油价观点判断： 供给端 OPEC+宣布 2026 年第一季度暂停增产：OPEC+在 2025 年 4 月-9 月将 220 万桶/日自愿减产完全退出，并在 2025 年 9 月 7 日 OPEC+部长 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月05日 制造成长周报（第 41 期） 优于大市 软银完成对 Open AI 的 400 亿美元投资，蓝箭航天 IPO 获受理 重点事件点评&重点关注：AI 基建、商业航天 事件 1-软银完成对 Open AI 的 400 亿美元投资：2025 年 12 月 30 日，软银 集团已于上周完成对 OpenAI 的最后一笔注资，金额约在 220 亿至 225 亿美 元之间，已完成对 OpenAI 的 400 亿美元投资承诺。 事件 2-蓝箭航天 IPO 获受理：2025 年 12 月 31 日，蓝箭航天 IPO 获受理： 拟募资 75 亿，需实现可复用火箭发射载荷成功入轨。 AI 基建点评：软银完成对 Open AI 的投资，xAI 收购第三座建筑，训练算力 将接近 GW，随着 AI 相关投资持续加码，AI 基建需求旺盛，相关产业链将继 续同步扩张受益。我们持续看好 AI 基建相关产业链，重点关注燃气轮机及 液冷方向。燃气轮机作为海外数据中心主用电源与备用电源将深度受益 AI 数据中心供电需求，GEV 超预期上修燃机订单与扩产也表明行业是超 长景气大周期。建议重点关注 AI 数据中 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月05日 博盈特焊（301468.SZ） 优于大市 堆焊装备领先企业，燃气轮机 HRSG 和油气新业务打开成长空 间 堆焊装备领先企业，积极拓展海外市场和新业务。公司成立于 2007 年，主 营业务为防腐防磨堆焊装备、非堆焊的锅炉部件、压力容器及高端钢结构件 的研发、生产和销售，产品主要应用于环保、电力、能源等行业，客户覆 盖哈尔滨电气、上海电气、通用电气、住重福惠、日立、三菱等企业，是国 内防腐防磨堆焊装备龙头。公司 2018-2024 年收入/归母净利润 CAGR 为 13.94%/2.07%，整体呈现国内需求下行、海外加速突破的趋势，公司海外收 入占比从 2021 年的 11%提至 2024 年的 55%，当前看公司国内业务底部企稳、 海外业务有望持续增长。此外，公司前瞻布局了 HRSG 和油气复合管业务， HRSG 已经具备一定规模的产能，油气复合管形成了市场卡位，与国外头部客 户在对接论证，处于逐步推进的过程中，新业务有望加速公司成长。 余热锅炉（HRSG）受益海外燃气轮机更新的景气上行周期及 AI 数据中心带 来的增量需求，公司卡位稀缺海外产能有望深度受益。余热锅炉 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company is fully promoting market-oriented transformation to address supply-demand matching issues. Short-term, the product structure and pricing of Moutai liquor are becoming more market-oriented, which is expected to show resilient performance in demand during the Spring Festival. The wholesale price is anticipated to stabilize and recover year-on-year, strengthening the support for valuation [3][8] - The company is expected to achieve stable performance through flexible policies and adjustments across multiple channels and products. The recent reforms are expected to improve the profitability of distributors, leading to a sequential improvement in channel profits [3][8] - In the medium to long term, the market-oriented reforms will help the company directly cultivate consumers. Its production, craftsmanship, and brand value remain industry-leading, ensuring continued brand valuation premium and investor returns even as perpetual growth rates converge [3][8] Summary by Sections Market-Oriented Transformation - Guizhou Moutai is implementing comprehensive market-oriented reforms, emphasizing consumer-centric approaches and adjusting product, channel, pricing, and incentive strategies [2][3] Product Strategy - The company is optimizing its product structure and pricing system, aiming to create a pyramid product system with "Feitian + Boutique" as the two major products. The 2026 Moutai liquor output is expected to remain stable, with an increase in the output of regular and boutique products while reducing non-standard products [4] Channel Strategy - The company has established a diversified sales model with a "4+6" channel ecosystem, planning to adjust product distribution and sales models to better match market demand. This includes enhancing the profitability of distributors and integrating online and offline channels [5][7] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 183.3 billion, 184.3 billion, and 186.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +5.3%, +0.5%, and +1.0% respectively. The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is 90.45 billion, 90.50 billion, and 91.79 billion yuan, with growth rates of +4.9%, 0.0%, and +1.4% respectively [3][9]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 2026年01月05日 2025 年债券行情回顾 收益率总体企稳回升，信用利差被动收窄 估值曲线：2025 年债市收益率震荡上行；信用利差方面，多数品种利差 被动收窄。收益率方面，1 年期国债、10 年期国债、10 年期国开债分别 变动了 25BP、17BP、27BP，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别 变动了 15BP、8BP、9BP 和-41BP。信用利差方面，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、 3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别收窄了 4BP、12BP、11BP 和 61BP。 国债收益率震荡走高：年初资金面大幅收紧导致债市收益率整体上行，3 月 两会后，潘行长关于货币政策的表述推动市场修正预期，10 年期国债收益率 进一步升至 1.90%高位。二季度中美关税拉锯，叠加央行降准降息兑现，资 金面整体环比改善，10 年期国债收益率下行至 1.63%-1.67%区间震荡。三季 度"反内卷"政策推升通胀预期，权益走强压制债市，叠加基金费率新规与 债基赎回，债市收益率整体上行；但在央行呵护资金面背景下，短端收益率 较为平稳，债市呈现"熊 ...