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ETF 周报:上周军工、芯片主题领涨,股票型 ETF 规模突破 39800 亿-20260111
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-11 13:22
上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 8.03 亿元,总体规模增加 1801.14 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中,上周中证 500ETF 净申购最多,为 36.48 亿元;按板块来看, 周期 ETF 净申购最多,为 135.24 亿元;按热点主题来看,医药 ETF 净 申购最多,为 8.92 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中,创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低;按板 块来看,大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和;按照细分主题来看, 酒、新能车 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低。与前周相比,中证 1000、科 创板、消费、医药 ETF 的估值分位数明显提升。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 ETF 周报 上周军工、芯片主题领涨,股票型 ETF 规模突破 39800 亿 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周(2026 年 01 月 05 日至 2026 年 01 月 09 日,下同)股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 4.31%。宽基 ETF 中,科创板 ETF 涨跌幅中位数 为 10.15%,收益最高。按板块划分,科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.28%, 收益最高。 ...
医药生物行业2026年1月投资策略:继续推荐创新药及产业链
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-11 12:54
Core Insights - The report continues to recommend innovative drugs and the related industry chain, highlighting the strong growth potential in the pharmaceutical sector through 2026 [1][4]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes the focus on the CXO sector, particularly in chemical CDMO, where Chinese companies hold significant advantages in talent, chemical capabilities, compliance production, and intellectual property protection [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming JPM conference will provide updates on the operational progress of Chinese innovative drug companies, which have shown a long-term positive development trend [4]. - The recommended investment portfolio includes A-shares such as Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and Aier Eye Hospital, as well as H-shares like Kangfang Biologics and WuXi Biologics [4][5]. Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical industry experienced a decline of 4.10% in December, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.38% [8]. - The report notes that the chemical pharmaceutical sector saw the largest declines among sub-sectors, with a drop of 5.80% [12]. Market Data - For the period from January to November 2025, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry's total revenue was 220.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% [7]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45.61 trillion yuan, with retail sales of Western and Chinese medicines amounting to 660.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [7]. Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the impact of the U.S. "Biological Safety Act," which is expected to have a limited short-term effect on Chinese CXO companies, while emphasizing the need to monitor the long-term implications of international competition and regulatory changes [22]. Recent Drug Approvals - In December 2025, a total of 16 innovative drugs or biosimilars were approved for market entry, including six domestic and ten imported products [24][25].
公募REITs周报(第49期):各板块普涨,交易活跃度提升-20260111
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-11 12:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View This week, the China Securities REITs Index rose 1.9% throughout the week, with all sectors posting gains and market trading activity also increasing. From the comparison of the weekly price changes of major indices, China Securities Convertible Bonds > CSI 300 > China Securities REITs > China Securities Aggregate Bonds. As of January 9, 2026, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 59 basis points lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - based REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 332 basis points [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market Trends - The weekly price change of the China Securities REITs Index was +1.9%, and the price change since the beginning of the year was +0.4%. As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 793.05 points. Throughout the week (from January 5 to January 9, 2026), its performance was weaker than the China Securities Convertible Bonds Index (+4.4%) and the CSI 300 Index (+2.8%), but stronger than the China Securities Aggregate Bonds Index (-0.1%). Since the beginning of the year, the order of price changes of major indices was: China Securities Convertible Bonds (+23.9%) > CSI 300 (+20.9%) > China Securities Aggregate Bonds (+0.5%) > China Securities REITs (+0.4%) [2][6]. - In the past year, the return rate of the China Securities REITs Index was -2.0%, and the volatility was 7.7%. The return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index, the China Securities Convertible Bonds Index, and the China Securities Aggregate Bonds Index; the volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bonds Index, but higher than that of the China Securities Aggregate Bonds Index. The total market value of REITs on January 9 was 223.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4 billion yuan from the previous week; the average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.60%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous week [2][8]. 3.2 Sector Performance - All sectors posted gains, with municipal facilities, new infrastructure, and water conservancy REITs leading the gains. From the perspective of different project - attribute REITs, the average weekly price changes of equity REITs and franchise - based REITs were +2.8% and +1.6% respectively. Among specific targets, the top three REITs in terms of weekly price increase were E Fund Biwei Market REIT (+7.84%), GF Chengdu Gaotou Industrial Park REIT (+6.91%), and China Merchants Science and Technology Innovation REIT (+6.24%) [3][16][21]. - New infrastructure REITs had the highest trading activity. In terms of different project types, new infrastructure REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate during the period, with an average daily turnover rate of 1.0%; consumer infrastructure REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume this week, accounting for 22.3% of the total REITs trading volume. In terms of the capital flow of different REIT products this week, the top three in terms of net inflow of main funds were Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT (121.76 million yuan), CICC Anhui Expressway REIT (79.3 million yuan), and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (53.82 million yuan) [3][23][24]. 3.3 Primary Market Issuance From the beginning of the year to January 9, 2026, there was 1 REIT product in the "accepted" stage, 1 in the "inquiry" stage, and 2 in the "feedback" stage on the exchange [26]. 3.4 Valuation Tracking - REITs have both bond - like and stock - like characteristics. From the bond - like perspective, under the constraint of mandatory high dividends, the annualized cash distribution rate is concerned. As of January 9, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 5.96%. From the stock - like perspective, the relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO are used to judge the valuation of REITs [28]. - As of January 9, 2026, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 59 basis points lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - based REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 332 basis points [1][29][30]. 3.5 Industry News Shanghai Jinjiang Asset Management Co., Ltd. recently announced the short - listed candidates for the fund manager, special plan manager, and financial advisor of its public - offering REIT project. The first short - listed candidate is a consortium composed of Huaan Fund, Huaan Future Asset, and Guotai Haitong Securities, with an issuance - stage fee of 5 million yuan and a 0.2% ongoing fee. The second short - listed candidate is a consortium composed of Dongwu Fund and Dongwu Securities, with the same quotation conditions. The announcement period ends on January 10. As of June 30, 2025, Jinjiang Hotels had over 17,700 contracted hotels, over 1.68 million rooms, and over 200 million members [4][32].
锂电产业链双周报(2026年1月第1期):四部委召开会议规范产业竞争,锂电池出口退税政策将陆续退出-20260111
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-11 09:07
证券研究报告 | 2026年1月11日 锂电产业链双周报(2026年1月第1期) 四部委召开会议规范产业竞争,锂电池出口退税政策将陆续退出 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 · 锂电池 投资评级:优于大市(维持) 证券分析师:王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师:李全 021-60375434 liquan2@guosen.com.cn S0980524070002 证券分析师:徐文辉 021-60375426 xuwenhui@guosen.com.cn S0980524030001 联系人:王喆萱 wangzhexuan@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 投资建议 【行业动态】 【风险提示】电动车销量不及预期,行业竞争加剧,原材料价格大幅波动,政策变动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 固态电池产业化加速推进:政策端,首个车用固态电池国家标准《电动汽车用固态电池第1部分:术语和分类》公开征求意见。电池端,欣界能源2GWh固态锂金属电池项目投产;红旗研 ...
上周军工、芯片主题领涨,股票型ETF规模突破39800亿
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-11 09:06
证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 ETF 周报 上周军工、芯片主题领涨,股票型 ETF 规模突破 39800 亿 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周(2026 年 01 月 05 日至 2026 年 01 月 09 日,下同)股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 4.31%。宽基 ETF 中,科创板 ETF 涨跌幅中位数 为 10.15%,收益最高。按板块划分,科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.28%, 收益最高。按主题进行分类,军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 13.50%,收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 8.03 亿元,总体规模增加 1801.14 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中,上周中证 500ETF 净申购最多,为 36.48 亿元;按板块来看, 周期 ETF 净申购最多,为 135.24 亿元;按热点主题来看,医药 ETF 净 申购最多,为 8.92 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中,创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低;按板 块来看,大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和;按照细分主题来看, 酒、新能车 ETF 的估 ...
垂类AI应用专题:AI重塑流量入口,重构广告营销模式
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-11 05:46
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1]. Core Insights - AI applications are entering a global acceleration phase, with both domestic and overseas markets continuing to expand on a high base. As of September 2025, overseas AI application monthly active users (MAU) have surpassed 1.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 76.7%, while China's AI application MAU reached 490 million, growing by 172.3% [12]. - AI search, composed of AI chatbots and AI search engines, has become the core engine of AI application development, shifting user behavior from "searching links" to "asking AI for answers." This transformation is reshaping information access and making shopping recommendations a core use case, fundamentally changing brand communication models [12][18]. - The Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) is revolutionizing traditional marketing models, enabling better advertising effectiveness by allowing brands to be directly referenced in AI-generated answers rather than just appearing in search results [13][17]. Summary by Sections AI Marketing: GEO Reshaping Advertising Models - GEO enables a complete transformation of advertising strategies, allowing brands to be directly referenced in AI-generated responses, enhancing exposure and engagement [13][17]. - The shift from traditional SEO to GEO is evident, with brands needing to optimize for AI-generated content rather than traditional search engine visibility [21][30]. AI Short/Anime Series: Multi-Modal Capabilities Driving Market Explosion - AI-driven short series, utilizing AIGC technology, significantly lower production costs and improve efficiency, making it a high-growth area in the content market [33][42]. - The number of AI animation micro-short series launched has been increasing, with 2,902 episodes released from January to August 2025, primarily targeting a younger audience [45]. Market Growth and Company Benefits - The GEO market is expected to grow rapidly, with projections indicating a global market size of $24 billion by 2026 and $100 billion by 2030. In China, the GEO market is anticipated to reach 11.1 billion yuan by 2026 and 36.5 billion yuan by 2028 [30]. - Companies benefiting from this trend include technology providers and content platforms such as 引力传媒, 光云科技, and 哔哩哔哩, which are positioned to capitalize on the shift towards GEO [30].
机构行为更新专题:识与变化:一季度居民财富再配置新变局
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-10 15:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector [4][5][47]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in resident wealth allocation due to a low interest rate environment, leading to a reallocation of funds from traditional savings to riskier assets [1][12][19]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is characterized by a transition from slow outflows to a more concentrated release of funds, indicating a rapid increase in market risk appetite [2][29]. - The report anticipates that the pulse-like release of deposits will provide substantial incremental capital to the A-share and Hong Kong markets, potentially exceeding 500 billion yuan in the first quarter [3][12]. Summary by Sections Deposit Low-Interest Environment - Deposit rates have fallen below 2%, prompting residents to seek higher-yielding investments [1][17]. - The decline in deposit attractiveness is pushing savings towards wealth management products and other financial instruments [13][19]. Wealth Management Transformation - There is a notable shift in asset allocation from bank deposits to non-bank financial products, with household deposits decreasing while non-bank financial institution deposits are increasing [20][22]. - The capital market's performance since June 2025 has catalyzed this shift, with the A-share market experiencing significant gains, thereby attracting more funds [20][24]. Changes in Deposit Migration - The report notes that the upcoming maturity of a significant volume of deposits, particularly three-year fixed deposits, will lead to a concentrated outflow of funds, enhancing risk appetite [29][33]. - The breaking of the "rigid redemption" of wealth management products has led to a reassessment of risk among conservative investors, prompting a return to safer deposit options [29][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on non-bank financial institutions that are likely to benefit from the ongoing deposit migration trend, particularly in the insurance and brokerage sectors [3][43]. - Specific companies highlighted for their strong potential include China Life, Ping An, and major brokerage firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [4][43].
宏观经济周报:冬季不淡,经济迎暖冬-20260110
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-10 12:58
这一改善主要得益于两大支撑。首先,前期推出的 5000 亿元政策性金融工 具及 5000 亿元地方债限额结余安排加速落地,有效推动了实物工作量形成, 不仅带动制造业生产端回暖,也显著拉动了建筑业 PMI 回升。其次,价格端 出现积极信号,制造业产出价格指数已连续两个月回升,12 月 CPI 与 PPI 环 比双双转正,反映出"反内卷"等相关政策的效果正在显现,供需关系趋于 健康化。 基于上述指标的改善,预计 12 月经济数据将较 11 月有所回暖,第四季度 GDP 增速有望达到 4.5%左右,全年"5%左右"的增长目标将顺利达成。展望后续, 由于 2026 年春节时点延后至 2 月,且围绕"两节"的 625 亿元国家补贴资 金已提前下达,当前经济回暖动能有望延续。值得关注的是,2026 年首周国 信高频宏观扩散指数仍延续 12 月的逆季节性上升态势,这表明 PMI 的扩张 与经济动能的修复并非短期波动,有望至少延续至 2026 年 1 月,从而为 2026 年经济实现良好开局奠定坚实基础。 风险提示:海外市场动荡,存在不确定性。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 | 证券分析师:李智能 | 证券分析师:田地 | ...
港股市场速览:小盘风格与医药板块显著上涨
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-10 11:18
证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 2026年01月10日 港股市场速览 优于大市 小盘风格与医药板块显著上涨 本周,恒生指数-0.4%,恒生综指+0.4%。风格方面,中盘(恒生中型股+3.7%) >小盘(恒生小型股+3.4%)>大盘(恒生大型股-0.4%)。 主要概念指数表现分化。上涨的主要有恒生生物科技(+11.1%);下跌的主 要有恒生汽车(-1.8%)。 国信海外选股策略分化。上涨的主要有 ROE 策略进攻型(+2.7%);下跌的 主要有红利贵族 50(-1.4%)。 20 个行业上涨,9 个行业下跌,1 个基本持平。上涨的主要有:医药(+10.0%)、 计算机(+7.4%)、煤炭(+6.1%)、国防军工(+5.8%)、有色金属(+4.5%); 下跌的主要有:石油石化(-3.6%)、电子(-2.5%)、通信(-2.3%)、银 行(-1.8%)、汽车(-1.7%)。 估值水平:风格与行业均呈分化状 本周,恒生指数估值(动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率,后同)-0.8%至 11.7x; 恒生综指估值+0.1%至 11.7x。 主要概念指数估值表现分化。上升幅度较大的是恒生生物科技(+14.0%至 29 ...
美股市场速览:金涌入科技巨头,小盘消费开始发力
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-10 11:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Underperform" for the U.S. stock market [4] Core Insights - The overall market is showing a recovery, with small-cap and consumer sectors gaining momentum. The S&P 500 increased by 1.6% and the Nasdaq by 1.9% this week. Small-cap growth stocks outperformed with a 4.7% increase, while small-cap value stocks rose by 4.5% [1] - 21 out of 24 sectors experienced gains, with notable increases in retail (+8.4%), durable goods and apparel (+5.2%), and materials (+4.9%). Conversely, technology hardware and equipment saw a decline of 3.2% [1] - There is a significant inflow of funds into technology giants, with the estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components at +$130.2 billion this week, compared to -$30.2 billion the previous week [2] Summary by Sections 2.1 Investment Returns - The weighted average price return for various sectors shows significant performance, with retail at +8.4%, durable goods and apparel at +5.2%, and materials at +4.9%. In contrast, technology hardware and equipment reported a decline of -3.2% [13] 2.2 Fund Flows - Fund flows indicate a strong interest in semiconductor products and equipment (+$2.756 billion), technology hardware and equipment (+$1.724 billion), and retail (+$1.686 billion). However, sectors like telecommunications experienced outflows of -$0.090 billion [15] 2.3 Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for the S&P 500 components shows a slight increase of +0.3% this week, with 17 sectors experiencing upward revisions. Notable increases were seen in semiconductor products and equipment (+0.9%) and materials (+0.6%) [16] 2.4 Valuation Levels - Valuation levels across sectors reflect varying performance, with the semiconductor sector showing a significant increase in earnings expectations, while sectors like telecommunications and durable goods and apparel faced downward adjustments [18]