【重点推荐】 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月24日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-13 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4082.07 | 14100.18 | 4660.40 | 15387.66 | 4134.99 | 1470.33 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -1.25 | -1.27 | -1.25 | -0.94 | -1.19 | -0.71 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 8468.08 | 11358.71 | 4528.78 | 3880.66 | 5421.16 | 615.92 | 宏观与策略 策略专题:策略专题研究-决胜 26 年牛市的三大行业机遇 行业与公司 公用环保行业专题:可控核聚变系列研究（一）-聚变启航，未来已来 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观快评:1 月金融数据解读-居民信贷"破冰" 宏观快评:美国 1 月 CPI 点评-通胀回落，降息时点仍靠后 固定收益投 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月16日 2026年02月17日 社会服务行业双周报（第 124 期） 优于大市 酒店 REITs 落地获进展，首都机场 T2、T3 免税店焕新开业 板块复盘：消费者服务板块报告期内上涨 0.68%，跑赢大盘 1.65pct。报告 期内（2026 年 2 月 2 日-2026 年 2 月 14 日），国信社服板块涨幅居前的股 票为百胜中国（12.34%）、新濠国际发展（11.35%）、三特索道（10.23%）、 华住集团-S（8.99%）、中国东方教育（8.96%）、美高梅中国、金沙中国有 限公司、华天酒店、银河娱乐、东方甄选。 行业与公司动态：锦江酒店与华住集团商业不动产REITs相继获交易所受理， 商业不动产 REITs 有望盘活酒店资产；亚朵 4.0 发布全新品牌"亚朵见野"。 免税业态方面，北京首都国际机场完成重要商业升级，由中免与王府井运营 的全新免税店同步开业。出行与旅游市场在史上最长春节假期前夕热度高 涨，民俗文化目的地与免签国家成为搜索热点，本轮假期期间，港股于 2 月 16 日（星期一）除夕上午开市半天，下午休市。2 月 17 日（星期二）至 2 月 19 日 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月14日 2026年02月21日 可控核聚变系列研究（一） 优于大市 聚变启航，未来已来 可控核聚变被视为人类社会的"终极能源"。人类社会可利用的能源形式可 分为热能、电能、化学能、机械能、光能和核能六类，虽然也有潮汐能、地 热能等能源，但从表现形式上仍可归为以上六种能源。各种能源形式中，只 有核能中的核聚变能同时具备"接近无限能源"的潜力和能量密度高、原料 来源相对广泛、环境影响极小、部署位置灵活等开发优势，因此被广泛认为 是"能源问题的终极答案"或者"终极能源"。 什么是核聚变？实现核聚变的难度何在？核聚变，即两个轻原子核结合成较 重原子核，发生质量亏损并遵循质能方程 E=mc 2释放巨大能量的过程。但核 聚变反应的发生条件非常苛刻，需要达到上亿度的高温和极高的粒子密度， 没有任何材料可以直接承载核聚变产生的等离子体，对反应装置的设计、极 端环境材料和等离子体控制等方面的要求即为苛刻。 核聚变的优势何在？核聚变的燃料来源广泛，能量密度极高，且具备传统核 电的主要优势，且具有固有安全性，不会发生堆芯熔毁等严重事故，同时仿 射性危害相对可控，适配未来能源系统中的基荷电源。同时核 ...

超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 2 月 13 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 45BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，12 月经济下行压力有所缓解。我 们测算的 12 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.5%，增速较 11 月回升 0.4%。通 胀方面，1 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-1.4%，通缩风险继续缓解。我们认为， 近期债市回调概率更大。一方面，2024 年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要 来自于中央加杠杆的托底。2025 年四季度无增发国债，短期政府托底经 济力度减弱，2025年四季度 GDP增速已经回落到了后疫情时代最低水平， 我国经济依然承压。同时从中央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发展，经济总量"稳中求进"的重要性次序有 所调降。另一方面，春节前后属于统计局数据真空期，当前利率绝对水 平偏低，A 股春季躁动量价齐升，预计股债跷跷板效应强化。近期 30-10 利差高位企稳，预计短期利差高位震荡为主。 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月23日 超长债周报 30-10 期限利差继续高位震荡 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：1 月通胀继续回暖 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium battery industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The lithium salt price has decreased, while the prices of battery cells have increased slightly. As of February 13, the price of lithium carbonate is 144,000 CNY per ton, down by 17,000 CNY from two weeks ago. The prices of ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, electrolytes, and lithium hexafluorophosphate have also decreased, while the prices of anodes and separators remain stable. The prices for square ternary power cells, lithium iron phosphate power cells, and energy storage cells have increased slightly [2][3] - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its commercialization, with the first national standard for automotive solid-state batteries expected to be reviewed and approved in April and officially released in July. Companies like Gotion High-Tech and BASF are collaborating to develop solid-state battery technology [3][10][11] - The domestic new energy vehicle sales in January 2026 reached 945,000 units, a slight year-on-year increase, while the penetration rate is 40.3%, up by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][12] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights several leading companies in the lithium battery sector that are undervalued amid improving demand, including CATL, EVE Energy, and others. It also points to companies leading in low-altitude economy and robotics, solid-state and sodium battery materials, and charging pile industries [3] - The U.S. Treasury Department has updated details regarding the OBBBA Act, tightening certification for specific foreign entities and detailing the calculation of material assistance ratios [3][13][14] - The report notes significant investments in battery production projects, including an 80GWh project by Chuangneng in Wuhan and a 33 billion CNY investment by Penghui Energy for new battery production lines [10][18] Price Trends - The report provides a detailed overview of lithium battery material prices as of February 13, 2026, indicating a decrease in lithium carbonate prices by 10.4% compared to two weeks prior, while other materials like nickel sulfate and cobalt sulfate have shown varying price changes [19] - The price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased by 1.5% to 0.336 CNY/Wh, while the price of square ternary power cells remains stable at 0.582 CNY/Wh [19]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月22日 2026年02月21日 港股市场速览 优于大市 能源与材料估值拉升，盈利预测平稳前滚 股价表现：行业分化较大，科技显著回撤 本周，恒生指数-0.6%，恒生综指-0.7%。风格方面，中盘（恒生中型股+0.6%） ＞小盘（恒生小型股+0.3%）＞大盘（恒生大型股-1.0%）。 主要概念指数走势分化。上涨的主要有恒生生物科技（+1.5%）；下跌的主 要有恒生互联网（-2.8%）。 国信海外选股策略表现分化。上涨的主要有 ROE 策略进攻型（+1.0%）；下 跌的主要有 ROE 策略防御型（-0.5%）。 18 个行业上涨，12 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：石油石化（+5.4%）、有色 金属（+2.8%）、综合（+1.9%）、建筑（+1.9%）、医药（+1.6%）；下跌的 主要有：商贸零售（-3.7%）、电子（-2.4%）、传媒（-2.2%）、国防军工 （-2.1%）、计算机（-2.1%）。 估值水平：整体水平下降，能源与材料提升 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）-0.9%至 11.4x； 恒生综指估值-0.7%至 11.5x。 国信海外选股策略估值普 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月22日 2026年02月23日 基金周报 中证指数 126 条指数入选业绩比较基准库，多只"固收+"基金增聘 权益基金经理 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周 A 股市场主要宽基指数全线上涨，科创 50、中证 1000、中证 500 指数收益靠前，收益分别为 3.37%、1.90%、1.88%， 沪深 300、上证综指、创业板指指数收益靠后，收益分别为 0.36%、 0.41%、1.22%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所下降。行业方面，上周 计算机、电子、传媒收益靠前，收益分别为 4.00%、3.70%、3.66%， 商贸零售、食品饮料、纺织服装收益靠后，收益分别为-3.07%、-2.52%、 -2.24%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净投放资金 12089 亿元，逆回购到期 4055 亿 元，净公开市场投放 16144 亿元。不同期限的国债利率均有所下行，利 差缩窄 1.35BP。 上周共上报 91 只基金，较上上周申报数量有所减少。申报的产品包括 8 只 FOF，23 只 ETF，工银瑞信中证红利低波动 100ETF、工银瑞信中 证港股通非银行金融主题 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium battery industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The lithium salt price has decreased, while cell prices have increased. As of February 13, the price of lithium carbonate is 144,000 yuan/ton, down 17,000 yuan/ton from two weeks ago. The prices of ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, electrolytes, and lithium hexafluorophosphate have also decreased, while the prices of anodes and separators remain stable. The prices for square ternary power cells, lithium iron phosphate power cells, and energy storage cells have increased slightly [2][3] - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with the first national standard for automotive solid-state batteries expected to be reviewed and approved in April and officially released in July. Companies like Gotion High-Tech and BASF are collaborating to develop solid-state battery technology [3][10] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the lithium battery industry with low valuations amid improving demand, including CATL, EVE Energy, and others [3] Industry Dynamics - The domestic new energy vehicle sales in January 2026 reached 945,000 units, a slight year-on-year increase but a 45% decrease month-on-month. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is 40.3%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In January 2026, new energy vehicle sales in nine European countries reached 205,200 units, a 20% year-on-year increase but a 37% month-on-month decrease. The penetration rate in Europe is 30.6%, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The U.S. saw new energy vehicle sales of 77,600 units in January 2026, a 31% year-on-year decrease and a 30% month-on-month decrease, with a penetration rate of 7.0% [3] Company Developments - CATL announced an employee stock ownership plan on February 9, 2026, with a total investment of no more than 743 million yuan, involving approximately 404,680 shares [3][15] - EVE Energy released its seventh stock option and restricted stock incentive plan on February 13, 2026, with a total of 150 million shares to be granted [3][18] - The U.S. Treasury Department updated details on the OBBBA Act on February 12, 2026, tightening certification for specific foreign entities and detailing the calculation of material assistance ratios [3][13][14] Market Performance - Over the past two weeks, the lithium battery sector has increased by 4.1%, while the battery chemicals sector has risen by 4.7%. The lithium-specific equipment sector has decreased by 1.8% [7] - Key stock price changes from February 8 to February 13 include a 1.0% decrease for CATL and a 12.3% increase for Enjie [7]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月22日 2026年02月23日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（195） 优于大市 奶牛存栏节后有望维持去化，石化链涨价或带动橡胶价格 原奶：奶牛去化有望延续，原奶价格 2026 年或迎拐点。2026 年 2 月 5 日， 国内主产区原奶均价为 3.04 元/kg，周度环比持平，同比-2.56%。 周度农产品跟踪：年内肉奶周期有望共振反转，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。2026 年 2 月 14 日生猪价格 11.61 元/公斤，周环比-2.60%；7kg 仔猪价格约 357.14 元/头，周环比-0.13%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。2026 年 2 月 14 日，鸡苗价格 2.33 元/羽，周环比+18.27%；毛鸡价格 7.32 元/公斤，周环比+0.27%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。2026 年 2 月 10 日浙江快大 三黄鸡/青脚麻鸡/雪山草鸡斤价分别为 4.7/4.4/5.6 元，周环比分别 +2.17%/-6.38%/+0.00%。 豆粕：估值处于历史低位，关注潜在天气或贸易端催化。2026 年 2 月 ...

Group 1: Northbound and Southbound Capital Flows - Northbound capital estimated net inflow of 3 billion CNY in the recent week, compared to a net outflow of 8.2 billion CNY in the previous week[1] - Southbound capital accelerated inflow into Hong Kong stocks, with a total of 26.7 billion HKD flowing into the market in the recent week[2] - Southbound capital outflow included 10.4 billion HKD from stable foreign capital and 25.1 billion HKD from flexible foreign capital[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Sector Performance - In the recent week, the top active stocks in the Northbound trading included Ningde Times with a total transaction amount of 20.4 billion CNY, accounting for 18% of the total trading amount for that stock[1] - In the Hong Kong market, significant foreign capital inflows were observed in sectors such as electrical equipment, food and beverage, and textiles[2] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japan saw a net inflow of 248.7 billion JPY from overseas investors, while India experienced an outflow of 3.98 billion USD in January[2][3] Group 3: Global Market Insights - In December, the US equity market saw a net inflow of 32.2 billion USD from global mutual funds, up from 9.2 billion USD in the previous month[3] - European equity markets also experienced inflows, with net inflows of 1.74 billion USD, 0.97 billion USD, and 2.16 billion USD into the UK, Germany, and France respectively[3] - Cumulative net inflows into the US market since 2020 reached 723.7 billion USD[3]