证券研究报告 | 2025年11月28日 2025年11月29日 金融工程日报 沪指窄幅震荡上行，两市成交额创近 4 个月以来新低 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20251128 大部分指数处于上涨状态，规模指数中中证 2000 指数 表现较好，板块指数中科创 100 指数表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长指 数表现较好。农林牧渔、国防军工、商贸零售、有色金属、基础化工行业表 现较好，银行、煤炭、非银、医药、通信行业表现较差。两岸融合、钛白粉、 海南自贸港、锂矿、磷酸铁锂电池等概念表现较好，游戏出海、拼多多合作 商、央企银行、维生素、中药精选等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251128 收盘时有 82 只股票涨停，有 6 只股票跌停。昨日涨停 股票今日收盘收益为 1.04%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-3.35%。今日封 板率 71%，较前日提升 10%，连板率 21%，较前日提升 6%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251127 两融余额为 24720 亿元，其中融资余额 24550 亿元，融券余额 170 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 10.4%。 折溢价：2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][37][42]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 1.4% to 8.93 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 5.3% to 1.19 billion yuan for the first half of the 2025/26 fiscal year [1][10]. - The brand's down jacket segment continues to lead growth, with a revenue increase of 8.3% to 6.57 billion yuan, despite challenges in other segments [1][15]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory by 20.3% and improved cash flow, maintaining a stable dividend payout with a mid-term dividend of 6.3 HKD cents, up 5% year-on-year [2][28]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2025/26 fiscal year, the company achieved a revenue of 89.3 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.4% and 5.3% year-on-year increase, respectively [1][10]. - The overall gross margin increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, driven by the growth in the down jacket business [1][23]. Business Segments - **Brand Down Jackets**: Revenue increased by 8.3% to 6.57 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 59.1%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points [1][15]. - **OEM Processing**: Revenue decreased by 11.8% to 2.04 billion yuan, but the gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 20.5% [15][23]. - **Women's Wear**: Revenue fell by 18.6% to 250 million yuan, with a gross margin of 59.9% [15][23]. - **Diversified Apparel**: Revenue decreased by 45.3% to 60 million yuan, primarily due to a decline in the school uniform business [16][23]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on brand leadership and product innovation by collaborating with top international designers to enhance its high-end image and market recognition [3][31]. - Digital transformation efforts include establishing an AI innovation lab in collaboration with Zhejiang University to improve design efficiency [3][32]. - The company is optimizing its channel strategy, with online revenue growth of 2.4% and a net increase of 85 self-operated stores and 285 dealer stores [3][33]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates accelerated growth in the second half of the fiscal year, supported by strong sales performance in the down jacket segment since October [4][37]. - Profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are projected at 3.91 billion, 4.30 billion, and 4.73 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.1%, 10.2%, and 10.0% [4][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) [5][25] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY26Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The Chinese e-commerce group, international digital commerce group, and cloud intelligence group achieved year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 10%, and 34%, respectively, while other segments saw a decline of 25% [1][9] - The adjusted EBITA for the quarter was 9.1 billion yuan, down 78% year-on-year, resulting in an adjusted EBITA margin of 3.7%. The non-GAAP net profit was 10.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 71.7% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [1][9] - Free cash flow for the quarter was a net outflow of 21.8 billion yuan, primarily due to increased investments in flash sales and cloud infrastructure [1][9] Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - The Chinese e-commerce group's CMR revenue grew by 10% year-on-year in FY26Q2, benefiting from increased technology service fees and improved site penetration rates. Instant retail revenue reached 22.9 billion yuan, up 60% year-on-year [2][13] - The adjusted EBITA for the Chinese e-commerce group was 10.5 billion yuan, down 76% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 7.9%, a decline of 31 percentage points [2][14] - The company is focusing on optimizing user experience while maintaining market share, with logistics costs significantly reduced compared to previous large-scale investments [2][14] Cloud Computing - The cloud intelligence group's revenue for FY26Q2 was 39.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%. Overall revenue, excluding intercompany transactions, grew by 29% year-on-year, with AI-related product revenue continuing to show triple-digit growth [3][15] - The adjusted EBITA margin for the cloud segment was 9.0%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarter. Capital expenditures (CAPEX) for the quarter were 31.5 billion yuan, up 70% year-on-year [3][15] - The company anticipates a strong demand for AI over the next three years, with potential for additional CAPEX investments beyond the planned 380 billion yuan [3][15] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,046.3 billion yuan, 1,182.3 billion yuan, and 1,293.0 billion yuan, respectively, with minor downward adjustments due to a focus on profitability in international e-commerce [4][25] - Adjusted net profit projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are set at 111.7 billion yuan, 145.0 billion yuan, and 172.0 billion yuan, with slight adjustments reflecting better-than-expected profit improvement in international e-commerce [4][25] - The company is currently trading at a PE ratio of 24 times for FY2026 [4][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][13] Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid revenue and profit growth driven by original research drugs, and this trend is expected to continue long-term [1][6] - For FY2026, the company projects a revenue growth of 10-15% year-on-year, with a mid-year revenue of 167 billion yuan, representing a 17% increase compared to the previous year [1][6] - The adjusted net profit for FY2025 was 14 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 8.1% [2][7] Revenue Summary - The company's self-operated pharmaceutical revenue reached 143 billion yuan in FY2026, up 19% year-on-year, largely due to a 99% increase in SKU supply for B2C retail products [1][6] - E-commerce platform service revenue was 18 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, with advertising revenue growing over 10% [1][6] - The medical health and digital services segment generated 5 billion yuan, also reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1][6] Profit Summary - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 8.1% in FY2025, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.1% [2][7] - The company has reduced its fulfillment cost ratio to 8.2%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [2][7] - For FY2026, the company anticipates a net profit growth of 20-30% year-on-year, with a mid-year profit projection of 1-21% [2][7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 have been adjusted to 348 billion, 379 billion, and 410 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a 4% increase from previous estimates [3][13] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 25 billion, 30 billion, and 34 billion yuan, also a 6% increase from prior estimates [3][13] - The current stock price corresponds to a FY2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 37 times [3][13]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年11月28日 证券研究报告 | 服务主导新周期 ——对"十五五"中国经济趋势的判断 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 2025年我国经济的三个显著趋势 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年节奏：冲刺起跑，逐季回落 图："反内卷"政策取向下，我国第二产业显著放缓，第三产业韧性凸显 图："开局即决战"思路下，今年我国经济总体呈前高后低态势 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 资料来源：Macrobond、国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 面对外部风险，今年在"开局即决战，起步即冲刺"部署下，Q1紧抓"窗 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月28日 2026年财政政策展望 ——"开门红"下的积极续力 经济研究 · 宏观专题 0755-81982035 S0980524090003 S0980525110002 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：王奕群 tiandi2@guosen.com.cn wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 收入端：税收收入逆势回暖 今年财政运行特征：前高后低 图：税收回暖，非税下滑 图：印花税表现较好，四大主要税种都在正增长 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 目前财政收入处于回升通道，1-10月增速0.8%，高于预算（0.1%）。 • 税收收入持续回暖，与经济数据有所分化。税收收入的增速今年整体呈现波动回升的趋势，到10月累计同比来到1.7%。 其中个人所得税11.5%，增值税4.0%，消费税2.4%，企业所得税1.9%。 • 非税收入持续下行。一是激励，去年基数较高，主要是缺口较大，地 ...

2025年11月29日 证券研究报告| 2025年11月28日 PCB是十问十答 AI算力与终端创新共振，PCB重塑高密度连接格局 行业研究 · 行业专题 电子 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：胡剑 证券分析师：胡慧 证券分析师：叶子 证券分析师：张大为 证券分析师：詹浏洋 证券分析师：李书颖 021-60893306 021-60871321 0755-81982153 021-61761072 010-88005307 0755-81982362 hujian1@guosen.com.cn huhui2@guosen.com.cn yezi3@guosen.com.cn zhangdawei1@guosen.com.cn zhanliuyang@guosen.com.cn lishuying@guosen.com.cn S0980521080001 S0980521080002 S0980522100003 S0980524100002 S0980524060001 S0980524090005 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 AI推动电子创新大周期，PCB开启中期成长趋势 请务 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月28日 金融工程专题研究 更全面的创业板投资标尺——创业板综合指数投资价值分析 均衡布局 A 股创新和成长型公司 定位"三创四新"，聚焦创新与成长：创业板定位于"三创四新"，自开板 以来，上市公司数量逐年提升，截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，创业板共有 股票 1390 只，总市值 16.49 万亿，近一月日成交额平均达 5230.01 亿 元人民币。 政策持续支持，专精特新含量高：截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，上市的专精特 新"小巨人"公司共 1117 家，其中 420 家在创业板上市，占比达到 37.60%， 占比最高。从已在创业板上市的专精特新公司行业分布来看，数量占比较高 的行业分别为机械、电子、计算机。 机构资金关注度高，场内资金持续流入：主动股基持有创业板成分股的 总市值整体呈现上升趋势，近年来持有创业板市值占比超过 17%；此外， 创业板相关 ETF 自 2022 年以来份额持续大幅增长，2024 年触及高点 后虽有回落，但近期再度回升，最新份额超过 800 亿份，最新规模超过 1700 亿元，在所有宽基类 ETF 中排名前列。 创业板综合指数（ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from its diversified layout and the addition of new product lines, particularly in the storage sector, which is projected to experience a recovery in the latter half of 2025 [3][28]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.433 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.89%, despite a significant decline in net profit due to various factors [1][22]. - The company plans to indirectly acquire a 31% stake in Zhuhai Noah Changtian Storage Technology Co., Ltd., which will enhance its product line in 2D NAND and expand its overseas sales network [3][27]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 527 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.94% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.24% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 28.14%, down 4.51 percentage points year-on-year and 2.54 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company expects improvements in gross margin as the storage industry recovers and product prices stabilize [1][22]. Product Lines and Market Position - The company specializes in non-volatile memory chips, including NOR Flash and EEPROM, and is a major supplier in China [9][12]. - The "Storage+" product line, which includes MCU products, has seen a revenue increase of 35.62% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [14][28]. - The company is expanding its product offerings to include high-performance storage products through the acquisition of SkyHigh Memory Limited, which is expected to position the company as a leader in the 2D NAND market [3][27]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 20.18 billion yuan, 25.43 billion yuan, and 31.70 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 26%, and 25% [30][32]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 114 million yuan, 351 million yuan, and 429 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery in profitability [33][34].

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月28日 金融工程专题研究 更全面的创业板投资标尺——创业板综合指数投资价值分析 均衡布局 A 股创新和成长型公司 定位"三创四新"，聚焦创新与成长：创业板定位于"三创四新"，自开板 以来，上市公司数量逐年提升，截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，创业板共有 股票 1390 只，总市值 16.49 万亿，近一月日成交额平均达 5230.01 亿 元人民币。 政策持续支持，专精特新含量高：截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，上市的专精特 新"小巨人"公司共 1117 家，其中 420 家在创业板上市，占比达到 37.60%， 占比最高。从已在创业板上市的专精特新公司行业分布来看，数量占比较高 的行业分别为机械、电子、计算机。 机构资金关注度高，场内资金持续流入：主动股基持有创业板成分股的 总市值整体呈现上升趋势，近年来持有创业板市值占比超过 17%；此外， 创业板相关 ETF 自 2022 年以来份额持续大幅增长，2024 年触及高点 后虽有回落，但近期再度回升，最新份额超过 800 亿份，最新规模超过 1700 亿元，在所有宽基类 ETF 中排名前列。 创业板综合指数（ ...