证券研究报告 | 2025年07月24日 周大福（01929.HK） 同店销售进一步改善向好，季内定价黄金首饰双位数增长 优于大市 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 商贸零售·专业连锁Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张峻豪 | 021-60933168 | | zhangjh@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980517070001 | | 证券分析师： | 柳旭 | 0755-81981311 | | liuxu1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522120001 | | 证券分析师： | 孙乔容若 | 021-60375463 | | sunqiaorongruo@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090004 | 事项： 公司发布 2025 年 4-6 月未经审核的主要经营数据，整体零售值同比下降 1.9%，环比 1-3 月 11.6%的降幅 实现改善向好。其中中国（不含港澳台）市场零售值同比下降 3.3%，中国香港、中国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The value of floating - rate bonds is affected by factors such as changes in the benchmark interest rate, term spreads, and market expectations of interest rate movements. In a rising interest - rate environment, floating - rate bonds are more resistant to price declines compared to fixed - rate bonds, but they perform relatively weakly in a falling interest - rate environment. - Based on simulations of floating - rate bonds, the market expects the 1 - year LPR to decline steadily in the next two years, reaching a low of 2.8% in April 2027, and then rise to 3.1% by the end of 2027. - Considering the potential for additional interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds. Similarly, the current allocation value of DR007 floating - rate bonds may also be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [167][177]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 China's Floating - Rate Bond Historical Changes - **Issuance Scale**: Over the past 30 years, China's floating - rate bond issuance scale has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with three rounds of expansion and adjustment. The issuance scale reached a historical peak of 637.6 billion yuan in 2021, but has significantly decreased in the past three years [14]. - **Benchmark Interest Rate**: It has evolved from a single benchmark (1 - year fixed - deposit interest rate) to a diversified one. Currently, LPR and DR007 are the mainstream benchmark interest rates [20][27]. - **Bond Types**: Policy - bank bonds and asset - backed securities have alternately dominated the market. Since 2022, policy - bank bonds have once again become the main type of floating - rate bonds [34][41]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance term has changed from being highly concentrated (7 - 10 years) to gradually diversified and then re - concentrated (2 - 3 years) [46][51]. 3.2 Floating - Rate Bond Valuation Method - **Valuation Principle**: Based on the discounted cash - flow method (DCF), the present value of a floating - rate bond is calculated by discounting future coupon payments and the principal at maturity to the current point in time. However, the difficulty lies in predicting future coupon payments and selecting the discount rate [63][64]. - **Factors Affecting Investment Value**: Changes in the benchmark interest rate and term spreads (∆y) affect the value of floating - rate bonds. Generally, an increase in the benchmark interest rate leads to a decrease in bond value, and vice versa. The impact of term spreads on bond value needs to be analyzed in combination with changes in the benchmark interest rate [77][80]. 3.3 Relative Value of Floating - Rate Bonds - **Comparison with Fixed - Rate Bonds**: In a rising interest - rate environment, the price decline of floating - rate bonds is smaller than that of fixed - rate bonds; in a falling interest - rate environment, floating - rate bonds perform slightly worse than fixed - rate bonds [86][94]. 3.4 Absolute Value of Floating - Rate Bonds (Based on Historical Backtracking) - By observing the historical trends of floating - rate bonds with DR007 as the benchmark, it is found that the value changes of floating - rate bonds are complex and are affected by the fluctuations of the National Development Bank bond rate and DR007. When the two rates move in opposite directions, the direction of the floating - rate bond value change is clear; when they are stable, the value center of the floating - rate bond is stable; when they move in the same direction, the direction of the value change is uncertain [101][134]. 3.5 Future Interest - Rate Cut Path Implied by Current Floating - Rate Bonds - By simulating the cash flows of floating - rate bonds, the market's implied interest - rate cut/ hike path for the 1 - year LPR in the next three years can be predicted. The market expects the 1 - year LPR to decline steadily in the next two years, reach a low of 2.8% in April 2027, and then rise to 3.1% by the end of 2027. The implied interest - rate cut expectations of floating - rate National Development Bank bonds are stronger than those of Agricultural Development Bank bonds [154][162]. 3.6 Investment Value of Floating - Rate Bonds - **1 - year LPR Floating - Rate Bonds**: Considering the potential for additional interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [167]. - **DR007 Floating - Rate Bonds**: Through scenario analysis, it is found that under most scenarios, the current allocation value of DR007 floating - rate bonds is lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [172][175].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - As of the end of Q2 2025, there were 2,405 medium - and long - term pure bond funds, accounting for 18.5% of the entire fund market. The issuance heat in Q2 recovered quarter - on - quarter. - The total assets and net assets of medium - and long - term pure bond funds with semi - annual reports disclosed at the end of Q2 2025 increased compared to the end of the previous quarter, and the average scale also recovered. - The average leverage ratio of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased compared to the end of the previous quarter. - In Q2 2025, the single - quarter average net value growth rate of medium - and long - term pure bonds was 0.98%, and the growth rate recovered compared to the previous quarter. - In asset allocation, bonds accounted for the highest proportion in the allocation of major asset classes, and the proportion of financial bonds and corporate - issued bonds increased in the allocation of specific bond types. - The two medium - and long - term pure bond funds with the highest returns adopted short - duration and ultra - long - duration strategies respectively, both overweighted treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds, and obtained net value returns of 3.4% and 4.6% respectively in the "bullish steepening" trend in Q2 [55]. Summary by Directory 2025 Q2 Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Fund Basic Situation - **Issuance Quantity and Scale**: By the end of Q2 2025, there were 2,405 medium - and long - term pure bond funds, accounting for 18.5% of the entire fund market. In Q2, 105 medium - and long - term pure bond funds were issued, with an issuance share of 57 billion, an increase compared to the previous quarter but a decline compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Fund Scale**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets and net assets of medium - and long - term pure bond funds with semi - annual reports disclosed were 80,150 billion yuan and 65,234 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 4,099 billion yuan and 2,890 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter. The average total assets and net assets were 39 billion yuan and 31 billion yuan respectively, a recovery of 1.5 billion yuan and 1.0 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter. Among the 2,078 old medium - and long - term pure bond funds that had announced their performance, 1,392 achieved positive growth in net asset scale in Q2, and the largest increase in net asset scale was Dongfang Zhenbao Pure Bond, with an increase of 12.9 billion yuan [10]. - **Average Leverage Ratio**: At the end of Q2 2025, the average leverage ratio of medium - and long - term pure bond funds under the overall - method caliber was 1.23, an increase of 0.01 compared to the end of the previous quarter. Under the average - method caliber, the average leverage ratio was 1.20, an increase of 0.02 compared to the end of the previous quarter [14]. - **Net Value Growth Rate**: In Q2 2025, the bond market yield declined from a high and then turned to volatility. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fluctuated between 1.62% - 1.81% and closed at 1.65% at the end of Q2. The economic growth in Q2 continued to be stable, with the real GDP in Q2 2025 growing by 5.2% year - on - year. The single - quarter average net value growth rate of medium - and long - term pure bonds in Q2 2025 was 0.98%, and the growth rate recovered compared to the previous quarter. Among the 2,084 funds that disclosed their performance, 2,083 had a positive net value growth rate, accounting for 99.8%, and the net value growth rate in Q2 was mainly distributed between [0,1) and [1,2), accounting for 56.8% and 40.9% respectively [16][18]. 2025 Q2 Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Fund Asset Allocation - **Major Asset Allocation**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets of medium - and long - term pure bond funds were 80,150 billion yuan. Bonds accounted for the highest proportion of 97.7%, an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous quarter; bank deposits accounted for 1.0%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous quarter; repurchase assets and other assets accounted for 0.9% and 0.4% of the total assets respectively, with changes of - 0.3% and 0.2% compared to the previous quarter [24]. - **Specific Bond Type Allocation**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the main bond types held by medium - and long - term pure bond funds were interest - rate bonds, financial bonds (excluding policy - financial bonds), and corporate - issued bonds, accounting for 49.6%, 22.3%, and 23.6% of the total bond assets respectively. Compared to the end of the previous quarter, the proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and corporate - issued bonds in bond assets changed by - 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively. The proportions of inter - bank certificates of deposit and other bonds changed by - 0.1% and 0.1% respectively, and the proportion of asset - backed securities was basically the same as that of the previous quarter [25]. 2025 Q2 Analysis of High - Performing Funds - **Fund A with the Highest Net Value Return**: Fund A had a high concentration of top - heavy bonds and was flexible in adjustment. In Q2, it significantly reduced its allocation of ultra - long - term treasury bonds. Its net value growth rate in Q2 was 4.6%. In terms of bond - selection strategy, it still overweighted treasury bonds, accounting for about 85.3%, a reduction of about 10% compared to the previous quarter, while increasing the allocation of policy - financial bonds to 14.7%. In terms of duration strategy, its duration dropped significantly from 13.9 years to 1.6 years in Q2, seizing the structural opportunities in Q2. The concentration of its top five heavy - position bonds was high, and the duration was short. The market value of the top five heavy - position bonds in Q2 accounted for 89.8% of the total asset scale, and the first four were treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years, and the fifth was a 10 - year CDB bond. Compared to the previous quarter, it significantly reduced its allocation of 30 - year treasury bonds and significantly increased its allocation of short - term treasury bonds [37][42]. - **Fund B with the Second - Highest Net Value Return**: Fund B adopted a strategy of extending duration, and the concentration of its heavy - position bonds was high. Its net value growth rate in Q2 was 3.4%. In terms of bond - type allocation strategy, it also focused on treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds, and increased its allocation of treasury bonds to 85.6% in Q2, while the allocation ratio of policy - financial bonds dropped from 33.6% to 14.4%. In terms of duration strategy, its duration extended from 16.1 years to 20.0 years in Q2. The concentration of its top five heavy - position bonds was also high and focused on long - duration interest - rate bonds. The market value of the top five heavy - position bonds in Q2 accounted for 89.1% of the total asset scale, and four of the top five were 30 - year treasury bonds, and the third was a 20 - year policy - financial bond. Compared to the previous quarter, it significantly increased its allocation of 30 - year treasury bonds and 20 - year policy - financial bonds, significantly reduced its allocation of 10 - year policy - financial bonds, and significantly extended the duration [46][48].

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月24日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-07-23 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3582.29 | 11059.03 | 4119.76 | 12486.28 | 3169.99 | 1020.85 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.01 | -0.36 | 0.01 | -0.49 | -0.44 | 0.45 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 8570.45 | 10075.53 | 4703.30 | 3653.64 | 4487.38 | 333.85 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 行业与公司 医药生物周报（25 年第 28 周）：中国生物制药收购礼新医药，推荐关 注具备创新能力的标的 电力设备新能源行业点评：中国聚变能源有限公司成立，核电装备大有 可为 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月23日 $\Delta$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$_{\rm H}$_{\rm H}$_ 公募 FOF 基金 2025 年二季度概览 截至 2025Q2，全市场已成立FOF产品数量 518 只，合计规模为 1661.98 亿元，相比 2025Q1 增加 10.01%。根据穿透后权益资产占比将FOF划 分为偏债型FOF、平 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月23日 金融工程日报 大盘冲高回落，封板率创近一个月新低 市场表现：今日(20250723) 规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板块指数中 科创 100 指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。非银、家 电、银行、计算机、电子行业表现较好，建材、国防军工、综合金融、机械、 电新行业表现较差。雅江水电站、水利水电建设、CRO、保险精选、半导体 设备等概念表现较好，海南自贸港、水泥、西部水泥、海航系、特高压等概 念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 57 只股票涨停，有 12 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 0.92%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-1.53%。今日封板率 49%，较前日下降 33%，连板率 27%，较前日下降 24%，封板率创近一个月新 低。 市场资金流向：截至 20250722 两融余额为 19333 亿元，其中融资余额 19196 亿元，融券余额 137 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 10.5%。 折溢价：20250722 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是一带一路 ETF，ETF 折价较多的是 A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI application industry [1] Core Insights - The capabilities of AI models are rapidly improving, driven by open-source initiatives that lower costs. Large models have achieved new heights in knowledge Q&A, mathematics, and programming, surpassing human-level performance in various tasks. The introduction of high-performance open-source models like Llama 3.1 and DeepSeek R1 has narrowed the gap between open-source and closed-source models [2][5] - AI agents are becoming more sophisticated, with a surge in new product releases. These agents can perceive their environment, make decisions, and execute actions, enhancing their functionality through the integration of external tools and services [2][30] - The commercial use of AI is on the rise, with significant growth in usage and performance of domestic models. The gap between top models in China and the US is closing, supported by a continuous increase in global AI model traffic [2][50] - AI applications are reshaping traffic entry points, with traditional internet giants leveraging proprietary data and user engagement to integrate AI functionalities into existing applications [2][50] - The open-source movement is increasing investment willingness and accelerating cloud adoption among enterprises, as the proliferation of development tools lowers industry application barriers [2][50] Summary by Sections Model Layer: Rapid Capability Enhancement and Cost Reduction - The mainstream model architecture is shifting towards MoE, allowing for more efficient resource use while enhancing performance. Models like DeepSeek-V3 and Llama 4 have demonstrated low-cost, high-performance capabilities [8][9] - The multi-modal capabilities of models have significantly improved, enabling them to process various data types, thus expanding application scenarios [8][9] - The introduction of chain-of-thought reasoning techniques has improved the accuracy and reliability of model responses [8][9] Commercialization: Continuous Growth in Usage and Strong Performance of Domestic Models - The competition among vendors has led to a significant decrease in inference costs, benefiting application developers and end-users [21][22] - The API call prices for major models have dropped substantially, with some models seeing reductions of up to 88% [21][22] AI Agents: Technological Advancements and Product Releases - AI agents are evolving from traditional models to more autonomous entities capable of independent decision-making and task execution [30][31] - The introduction of protocols like MCP and A2A is enhancing the capabilities and interoperability of AI agents, facilitating complex task execution across different systems [38][39] C-end Applications: AI Empowering Business and Reshaping Traffic Entry - AI applications are expected to redefine traffic entry points, with major players actively positioning themselves in this space [2][50] B-end Applications: Open-source Enhancing Investment Willingness and Cloud Adoption - The development of open-source tools is significantly lowering the barriers for industry applications, accelerating the intelligent transformation of various sectors [2][50]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月23日 汽车行业周报（25 年第 25 周） 优于大市 看好优质新车上市催化板块情绪，建议关注财报行情 月度产销：根据中汽协数据，2025 年 6 月销量 290.4 万辆，环比增长 8.1%， 同比增长 13.8%；乘用车销量 253.6 万辆，环比增长 7.8%，同比增长 14.5%； 新能源汽车销量 132.9 万辆，同比增长 26.7%；新能源汽车新车销量占汽车 新车总销量的 45.8%；汽车出口 59.2 万辆，环比增长 7.4%，同比增长 22.2% 根据乘联会，2025 年 6 月全国乘用车市场零售 208.4 万辆，同比增长 18.1%， 环比增长 7.6%，1-6 月累计零售 1090.1 万辆，同比增长 10.8%；6 月新能源 乘用车市场零售 111.1 万辆，同比增长 29.7%，环比增长 8.2%；1-6 月累计 零售 546.8 万辆，增长 33.3%。 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所预测 注：收盘价为 2025 年 7 月 18 日数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 行业研究·行业周报 周度数据：根据上险数据，7 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月23日 优于大市 特变电工（600089.SH） 国家能源局发文开展煤矿产能核查，煤炭行业或迎来盈利修复 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 电力设备·电网设备 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 王蔚祺 | 010-88005313 | | wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520080003 | | 证券分析师： | 王晓声 | 010-88005231 | | wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523050002 | | 证券分析师： | 袁阳 | 0755-22940078 | | yuanyang2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524030002 | 事项： 近日，国家能源司发布《关于组织开展煤矿生产情况核查促进煤炭供应平稳有序的通知》，《通知》指出： 今年以来，全国煤炭供需形势总体宽松，价格持续下行，部分煤矿企业"以量补价"，超公告产能组织生 ...

食品饮料行业：持仓比例 6.2%，行业维持超配。2Q25 食品饮料行业重仓比 例环比 1Q25 下滑 1.86pcts 至 6.2%，位居申万一级行业第五。2Q25 食品饮 料行业重仓超配比例为 1.37%，行业整体维持超配，超配比例环比下降 1.34pcts。 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月23日 食品饮料行业 2025 年二季度基金持仓分析 优于大市 白酒板块基金持仓比例环比下降，大众品板块略有增持 | 公司 | 公司 | 投资 | 昨收盘 | 总市值 | EPS | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | （元） | （百万元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 600519.SH | 贵州茅台 | 优于大市 | 1,465.0 | 1,840,305 | 68.64 | 75.02 | 21.3 | 19.5 | | 000858.SZ | 五粮液 | 优于大市 | 125.5 | 487,258 | 9.18 | 9.35 | 14.1 ...