证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 超长债周报 超长债收益率小幅上行 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周税期资金面偏紧，A 股大跌，债市窄幅震荡收益率略微 上行，超长债小跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投 非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 21 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的反弹，30-10 利差会阶段性 压缩。 20 年国开债：截至 11 月 2 ...

"黑色星期五"亚太普跌，成长股脆弱性凸显。全球资本市场 2025 年以来 高相关性的特征延续，近一周全球风险资产遭遇同步抛售，市场恐慌情绪有 所升温。全周跌幅榜前列几乎被亚太市场包揽，其中 A 股市场北证 50、创业 板指全周分别回撤 9.04%、6.15%，远超发达国家权益市场回撤幅度。在全球 风险偏好收缩时，新兴市场及高贝塔属性的市场面临的抛售压力更大。电解 液、锂电、存储、光伏、稀土等成长板块整体压力较大，涨跌家数比和个股 收益率中位数均收敛至年内次低点。 本次下跌是全球流动性预期摇摆、AI 泡沫担忧和国内交投情绪降温共同导 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 策略周思考 回撤何时休？"小登"何时再支棱？ 核心结论：①亚太市场同步演绎"黑色星期五"，下跌原因主要有两点：一 是全球流动性预期摇摆，二是以杠杆资金为观测口径下的情绪大幅降温；② 牛市中跌破 60 日线的情况不多，破位后平均需要 10 天左右"收复失地"， 如果需要"以时间换空间"，历史上最多再忍受 15%左右回撤，当前和历史 环境有所差异；③ 复盘近一轮牛市 2.5 倍以上涨幅的细分行业，"对数均 线偏离度"达到-1.5%是较好的介入时 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - Baidu Group reported a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.8 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 12% [1][10] - The company experienced a significant impairment loss of approximately 16 billion yuan due to the rapid enhancement of high-performance computing capabilities, which is expected to mark a low point for profit margins, with future improvements anticipated [1][10] - Advertising revenue faced pressure, declining 18% year-on-year to 15.3 billion yuan, accounting for 62% of Baidu's core revenue. The company is accelerating its transition to AI search, with 70% of search result pages now containing AI-generated content [2][16] Revenue Breakdown - Baidu's AI new business revenue reached 10 billion yuan, with AI high-performance computing facility subscription revenue increasing by 128% year-on-year. The AI business is divided into three segments: 1. Intelligent Cloud Infrastructure: Revenue of 4.2 billion yuan, up 33% year-on-year 2. AI Applications: Revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year 3. AI Native Marketing Services: Revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, a strong growth of 262% year-on-year, representing 18% of Baidu's core online marketing revenue [3][25] - The company expects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 19.6 billion, 21.6 billion, and 24.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a downward adjustment of 7%, 11%, and 12% [29] Financial Forecasts - The financial forecasts for Baidu Group indicate a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with total revenue projected at 130.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit is expected to drop to 19.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.4% [5][33] - Key financial metrics include an adjusted EPS of 7.13 yuan for 2025 and a projected P/E ratio of 14.9 [5][33]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20251117-20251121） 固定收益快评 | 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525080001 | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | 我们定期梳理从公开渠道可获得的最新的可交换私募债（私募 EB）项目情况，对私募可交换债项目做基本 要素跟踪，私募发行条款发行过程可能有更改，请以最终募集说明书为准，发行进度请与相关主承销商咨 询。 上周新增项目信息如下：（部分项目因合规原因未予列示） 1. 广东生益科技股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司债券项目获交易所通过，拟 发 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 转债市场周报 权益回调中展现"退可守"属性 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日） 股市方面，上周市场震荡下跌，在地缘政治局势紧张、海外 AI 泡沫担 忧加剧、美国 9 月非农数据超预期导致降息预期走弱等因素影响下，市 场风险偏好明显下降，各行业板块出现普跌，具备防御属性的银行板块 跌幅较小。债市方面，上周初资金面总体偏紧，随着税期缴款结束、以 及央行持续净投放下，后半周资金转为均衡偏松；市场风险偏好走弱， 但股债跷跷板效应并不明显，债市全周窄幅震荡；周五 10 年期国债利 率收于 1.82%，较前周上行 0.26bp。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收跌，中证转债指数全周-1.78%，价 格中位数-1.89%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周-6.70%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比+7.72%。个券层面，路维（掩膜版）、鼎龙（半导体）、 浩瀚（网络智能化）、恒锋（智慧城市信息服务）、家联（3D 打印）转 债涨幅靠前；中能（电网设备）、立中（铝合金锭&已公告强赎）、豫 光（贵金属&已公告强赎）、天赐（电解液&已公告强赎）、宏发（继电 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 35.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%. Adjusted net profit was 4.99 billion RMB, up 26% year-on-year [10][4] - The company is focusing on AI to drive growth in its core business, with significant advancements in its AI video product, Keling, which achieved quarterly revenue exceeding 300 million RMB [4][32] - The company has improved its gross margin to 55.1%, primarily due to enhanced server efficiency and reduced content costs [10][4] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue breakdown: Domestic revenue was 34.4 billion RMB (up 15% YoY), while overseas revenue was 1.15 billion RMB (down 13% YoY) [10][4] - The adjusted profit margin for Q3 2025 was 14.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [10][4] - Research and development expenses for Q3 2025 were 3.7 billion RMB, an 18% increase year-on-year [10][4] User Engagement Metrics - The total monthly active users (MAU) for Q3 2025 was 731 million, a 2% increase year-on-year, while daily active users (DAU) reached 416 million, also up 2% year-on-year [2][17] - The average daily usage time per user was 134 minutes, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year [2][17] Commercialization Efforts - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 15% year-on-year, with revenue from live e-commerce increasing by 41% [3][23] - Advertising revenue for Q3 2025 was 20.1 billion RMB, up 14% year-on-year, driven by advancements in AI technology [3][28] - Live streaming revenue reached 9.6 billion RMB, showing a 3% year-on-year increase [3][28] Future Outlook - The company has raised its revenue forecast for Keling to 1 billion RMB for the year, driven by successful AI advancements [4][32] - The adjusted profit projections for 2025-2027 are 20.7 billion RMB, 23.5 billion RMB, and 26.6 billion RMB respectively [4][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [49]. Core Insights - NVIDIA reported a record revenue of $57.006 billion for FY2026 Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 62% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 22%, driven by strong demand in the AI sector [11][12]. - Google's Gemini 3.0 series was launched, showcasing advancements in deep reasoning and agent capabilities, outperforming previous models in various benchmarks [13][16]. - The optical cable export data for October 2025 showed a significant month-on-month growth of 26.14%, reflecting a sustained high demand in the industry [24]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - NVIDIA's FY2026 Q3 revenue reached $57.006 billion, with data center revenue at $51.2 billion, marking a 62% year-on-year increase and a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase [11][12]. - Google's Gemini 3.0 series introduces a "Deep Think" mode, enhancing its ability to handle complex reasoning tasks, achieving notable scores in various benchmarks [13][16]. - Optical cable exports from China to the U.S. in October 2025 totaled 520 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 61.02% and a month-on-month increase of 26.14% [24]. Investment Recommendations - Continuous focus on AI computing infrastructure development is advised, with recommendations to monitor companies involved in optical devices, communication equipment, and liquid cooling technologies [46]. - The three major telecom operators are highlighted as important assets for dividend allocation, with stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [46]. Market Performance Review - The communication sector index decreased by 2.51%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 3.77%, resulting in a relative return of 1.26% [36]. - Among sub-sectors, optical devices/chips and operators showed relatively better performance, with specific stocks like Tengjing Technology and Dekeli leading in gains [39].

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 公募 REITs 周报（第 43 期） 周度普跌，换手率走低 新型基础设施 REITs 交易活跃度最高。从不同项目类型来看，新型基础设施 REITs 区间日换手率最高，区间日均换手率为 1.9%；交通基础设施 REITs 本 周成交额占比最高，成交额占 REITs 总成交额 20.5%。从本周不同 REITs 产 品资金流向来看，主力净流入额前三名分别为华泰江苏交控 REIT（1216 万 元）、招商基金蛇口租赁住房 REIT(1083 万元）、南方润泽科技数据中心 REIT(861 万元）。 人民银行北京分行等 12 个部门支持符合条件的消费基础设施发行 REITs。 11 月 18 日，中国人民银行北京市分行等 12 部门关于印发《金融支持北京市 提振和扩大消费的实施方案》，方案明确提出支持符合条件的消费基础设施 发行公募 REITs。通过 REITs 模式提升商圈改造、社区商业等设施的运营水 平，既能完善消费场景，还能激发区域消费活力。 中航中核集团能源公司公募 REITs 正式申报。中航中核集团能源公募 REITs 已于 11 月 18 日正式向上交所申报。该 ...

海外流动性变局下的市场波动。（1）数据显示，当月非农就业人口新增 11.9 万人，远超预期的 5 万人，一举扭转 8 月修正后减少 0.4 万人的颓 势，但失业率却意外升至 4.4%的阶段性高点，高于预期的 4.3%，恰好 印证了美联储主席鲍威尔此前"更关注失业率而非绝对就业增量"的表 态，也为政策决策增添了复杂性。（2）非农数据的发布直接加剧了美 联储内部的降息分歧。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯认为，劳动力市场降温使 得近期存在降息空间，柯林斯则强调通胀风险仍存，主张对 12 月降息 保持谨慎。市场对于美联储 12 月份降息的预期也在各种表态中大幅波 动。（3）流动性变局下，全球资本市场呈现显著的结构性分化。股市 方面，美股受科技股波动与政策预期主导，英伟达等龙头利好出尽后曾 引发大幅跳水，虽因降息预期反弹但内部分化加剧。美债收益率则随降 息预期反复波动，呈现陡峭化走势，日债则早在 10 月份已经出现上行， 某种程度上解释了近期全球资本市场的集体回调。大宗商品市场中，黄 金、铜价依托避险需求与经济韧性维持高位震荡，布伦特油价则在 60 美元/桶附近寻找支撑，反映全球需求的谨慎预期。（4）综合来看，当 前全球资本市场 ...

致。前期美联储官员释放鹰派信号，日债收益率新高，套息交易收紧流动性 的螺旋有所强化。英伟达Q3 财报超预期，黄仁勋回应AI 泡沫论，但市场"Sell the rip"，AI 繁荣与互联网泡沫相提并论的质疑被 price in。国内交投情 绪降温始于 8 月末缩量，但杠杆资金的降温则在近期表现得更加明显，高杠 杆投资者情绪转冷形成直接的抛压，放大市场的下行波动。 牛途折返如何演绎，平均需要 10 日左右收复失地，历史上需要"以时间换 空间"的时段对当前参考有限。过去 30 年中的牛市阶段共计出现 59 次盘中 低点刺破 60 日线的情况，破位后平均需要 11.1 天重新站回 60 日线，1/3 左 右的情况次日重新站上 60 日线，在牛途未完的语境下，周线、月线级别胜 率在六成以上，季线级胜率在八成以上。牛市环境中跌破 60 日线后，20 天 以内无法重新站稳的情形出现 11 次，这其中更多面临系统性的政策收紧、 海内外黑天鹅事件亦或是分子端下滑，均与当前市场环境并不一致。我们维 持"牛市进入第二阶段"判断，存款搬家逻辑延续，盈利驱动市场坚实上涨。 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 策略周思考 回撤何时 ...