证券研究报告 | 2025年05月29日 BOSS 直聘（BZ.O） 优于大市 经营提效业绩兑现良好，收款增速环比提速释放积极信号 2025Q1 经调经营利润表现优于市场预期，企业付款意愿边际改善。2025Q1， 公司收入19.23亿元/+12.9%，小幅超出管理层指引（11.5%-12.7%）；Non-GAAP 经营利润 6.91 亿元/+76.2%，Non-GAAP 归母净利润 7.70 亿元/+44.2%，优于 彭博一致预期（6.85 亿元）。2025Q1，公司现金收款 21.80 亿元/+6.3%，环 比 24Q4（+3.2%）边际提速，反映出企业招聘付款意愿边际有所改善。 分业务看，企业线上招聘业务（B 端）收入 19.01 亿元/+12.9%，截至 2025 年一季度末，过去 12 个月付费企业客户数 638 万/+12.3%，付费企业数续创 历史新高。对应平均 ARPU 值为 1170 元/+5.6%。春节后招聘需求持续复苏， 平台数据显示 2025 年 1-4 月企业新增职位同增 17%；求职者端（C 端）收入 2190 万元/+11.2%，主因求职者群体持续扩大，2025 年一季度求职者为月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][24]. Core Views - The report highlights that in Q1 2025, Meituan achieved an adjusted profit of 10.949 billion yuan, which is a 46.2% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations [1][9]. - The core local business revenue reached 64.325 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.8% increase, also slightly above Bloomberg's forecast [2][11]. - New business revenue was 22.232 billion yuan, up 19.2% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 2.273 billion yuan, showing improvement in loss rate [3][12]. - The report anticipates a slowdown in core local business revenue growth in Q2 2025 due to increased competition and promotional activities [4][19]. - The company is expanding its overseas operations, committing to invest 1 billion USD in Brazil over the next five years [4][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan reported total revenue of 86.557 billion yuan, an 18.1% increase year-on-year, and an operating profit of 10.567 billion yuan, which is a 102.8% increase [1][9]. - The adjusted operating profit margin was 12.2%, up 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. Core Local Business - The core local business generated revenue of 64.325 billion yuan, with significant contributions from delivery services, commissions, and online marketing services [2][11]. - The operating profit for this segment was 13.491 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 21.0%, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than the previous year [2][11]. New Business Development - New business revenue was 22.232 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 2.273 billion yuan, indicating a loss rate improvement of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [3][12]. - The report notes that the Keeta model continues to show good growth, and the company is focused on long-term capability building despite current losses [3][12]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that increased investment in core operations and international expansion will impact profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits projected at 44.7 billion, 58.7 billion, and 71.8 billion yuan respectively [5][20]. - The competitive landscape is expected to remain challenging, but the long-term operational capabilities of merchants and riders are viewed as a strong competitive moat for Meituan [5][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group (00992.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][20]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth in FY2025, achieving a total revenue of $69.077 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.41%, and a net profit of $1.384 billion, up 37.01% year-on-year, indicating a positive turnaround in net profit growth [1][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from three key growth drivers: AI PCs, smartphones, and servers, which are anticipated to sustain performance growth [3][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2025, Lenovo's gross margin was 16.1%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the rapid increase in smartphone revenue, which has a lower margin [2][12]. - The net profit margin improved to 2.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting enhanced profitability [2][12]. Growth Drivers - **AI PCs**: Lenovo's PC shipments are projected to reach approximately 61.8 million units in 2024, with a global market share of 23.5%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The post-pandemic demand and the discontinuation of Windows 10 are expected to boost growth in the PC sector [3][17]. - **Smartphones**: Motorola, a Lenovo brand, is expected to see a 23% increase in shipments in 2024, outperforming the industry growth rate of 4%, positioning it as the seventh-largest smartphone brand globally [3][17]. - **Servers**: The company’s infrastructure solutions group successfully turned profitable in the second half of FY2025, with increased demand for AI servers driven by major internet companies' capital expenditures [3][17]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are $1.604 billion, $1.832 billion, and $2.019 billion, respectively, with diluted EPS projected at $0.13, $0.15, and $0.16 [4][20]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [4][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was under pressure due to increased investments and tariff impacts, with total revenue of 957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, which was below market expectations [1][8] - Online marketing service revenue grew to 487 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in GMV and advertising monetization in the domestic market [1][8] - The decline in transaction service revenue, which reached 470 billion yuan with a growth rate of 6%, was attributed to commission reductions and tariff impacts on TEMU's GMV growth [1][8] - The company's gross margin decreased to 57.2%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the full burden of shipping costs in the western regions and a structural decline in high-margin commission revenue [2][9] - Non-GAAP operating profit fell to 183 billion yuan, a decrease of 36% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 19.1% [2][9] - The company launched a 100 billion yuan support plan in April, which may continue to pressure profitability in the near to medium term [3][10] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 4329 billion yuan, 4994 billion yuan, and 5622 billion yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment of 10%, 16%, and 17% respectively [3][16] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period are 841 billion yuan, 1076 billion yuan, and 1259 billion yuan, with adjustments of -35%, -34%, and -32% respectively [3][16] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected at 12x, 9x, and 8x for 2025-2027 [3][16] Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a non-GAAP net profit margin of 18% for the latest quarter, with a significant decline in net profit due to reduced interest income [2][9] - The sales expense ratio reached 34.9%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the company's relative disadvantage in national subsidies compared to other self-operated e-commerce platforms [2][9] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19% for 2025, down from 32.1% in 2023 [4][19]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月29日 策略快评 2025 年 6 月各行业金股推荐汇总 策略研究·策略快评 | 证券分析师： | 王开 | 021-60933132 | wangkai8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521030001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 陈凯畅 | 021-60375429 | chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090002 | 6 月金股推荐汇总 表1：2025 年 6 月各行业金股推荐标的汇总 | 行业名称 | 分析师 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 投资逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 资本市场双向开放步履不停，港交所枢纽地位稳固。立足中国优势，港交所战略实施持续取得积 | | | | | | 极进展，推进互联互通、提升市场活力、探索创新业务和加强科技赋能等关键举措为港交所奠定 | | 非银 | 孔祥 | 0388.HK | 香港交易所 | 更良好的发展基础，扩大其营收和利润增长空 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月29日 氯虫苯甲酰胺行业快评 行业供给突发受限，杀虫剂价格有望出现阶段性上涨 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  | 基础化工·农化制品 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 联系人： | 王新航 | 0755-81981222 | | wangxinhang@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 事项：据新华社报道，2025 年 5 月 27 日 11 时 57 分左右，高密市友道化学有限公司一车间发生爆炸事故。 经各级组织力量全力搜救，截至当日 19 时 25 分，事故造成 5 人死亡，6 人失联，19 人轻伤。根据《重大 事故查处挂牌督办办法》，国务院安委会决定对该起事故查处实行挂牌督办。据百川盈孚及友道化学官网， 其建设有 1.1 万吨/年氯虫苯甲酰胺产能，国内产能占比约 41%。 国信化工观点：1）氯虫苯甲酰胺是全 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月29日 2025年下半年债券投资策略 票息为主，积极持券 投资策略 · 固定收益 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 宏观：具有较大的不确定性 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 关税风暴 证券分析师：赵婧 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 证券分析师：田地 0755-81982035 tiandi2@guosen.com.cn S0980524090003 证券分析师：季家辉 021-61761056 jijiahui@guosen.com.cn S0980522010002 证券分析师：李智能 0755-22940456 lizn@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 关税风暴 ➢ 出口增量贡献大，占我国经济体量可控 ✓ 去年底以来的经济企稳，以海外补库+抢出口为核心，内生性依然偏弱； ✓ 目前出口占我 ...

【常规内容】 宏观与策略 策略深度:"新质生产力"系列专题（十）-耐心资本赋能新质生产力发 展 证券研究报告 | 2025年05月29日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-05-28 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3339.93 | 10003.26 | 3836.23 | 11297.04 | 2774.89 | 970.64 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.02 | -0.25 | -0.08 | -0.25 | -0.34 | -0.23 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 3893.41 | 6206.09 | 1624.96 | 2415.42 | 2722.07 | 146.36 | 行业与公司 威高骨科(688161.SH) 财报点评:2025 年一季度归母净利同比增长 48%， 发布新一期股权激励计划 | 主要市场指数 | | 05 | 月 | 29 日 | | --- | --- | --- ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月29日 政府债务周度观察 5 月政府债净融资近 1.5 万亿 核心观点 固定收益周报 城投债第 21 周（5/19-5/25）净融资-159 亿，第 22 周（5/26-6/1）预 计-152 亿。截至本周城投债余额约 10.5 万亿。 风险提示：数据统计误差，实际发行与计划差异较大。 证券分析师：董德志 联系人：王奕群 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 21 周（5/19-5/25）3566 亿，第 22 周 （5/26-6/1）1816 亿。截至第 21 周（5/19-5/25）广义赤字累计 4.5 万 亿，进度 37.7%，超去年同期。 政府债净融资第 21 周（5/19-5/25）3861 亿，第 22 周（5/26-6/1）1374 亿。截至第 21 周（5/19-5/25）累计 6.2 万亿，超出去年同期 3.9 万亿， 主要是置换隐债专项债和国债发行较快。5 月政府债净融资接近 1.5 万 亿，预计将继续对财政支出形成较 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月28日 2024 年互连类芯片和津逮服务器平台收入占比分别为 92%和 8%，1Q25 收入 和归母净利润均创季度新高。公司是国际领先的数据处理及互连芯片设计公 司，致力于为云计算和人工智能领域提供高性能、低功耗的芯片解决方案。 2024 年实现收入 36.39 亿元(YoY +59%)，互连类芯片和津逮服务器平台分别 占比92%和 8%，2016-2024 年的 CAGR 为 20%；实现归母净利润 14.12 亿元(YoY +213%)，2016-2024年的CAGR为41%。1Q25实现收入12.22亿元(YoY +65.78%， QoQ +14.43%），实现归母净利润 5.25 亿元(+135.14%，QoQ +21.13%），均 创季度新高；毛利率为 60.45%(YoY +2.7pct，QoQ +2.3pct）。 DDR5 渗透率持续提升，公司率先开启 DDR5 子代迭代。公司是全球三大 DDR5 内存接口芯片厂商之一，可提供从 DDR2 到 DDR5 内存全缓冲/半缓冲完整解 决方案。支持更高速率 DDR5 的 CPU 持续迭代将推动 DDR5 内存模组的规模 ...